WI: Pausanias assassinates Alexander the Great?

[SunKing105]

POD: The incident at Cleopatra Eurydice's wedding doesn't happen, and Alexander and his mother do not flee Macedonia for Epirus, while relations between Philip II and Alexander are restored enough that Alexander attends the wedding of Philip's daughter Cleopatra of Epirus to Alexander I of Molossia, while Pausanias chooses a different method of assassination, trying to shoot Philip down. Pausanias, his vision unclear and blurred, mistakes Alexander in his royal garb for Philip II, and fires an arrow at him, which pierces his heart and kills him. He attempts to shoot Philip after realizing that he killed the wrong person, but the arrow narrowly misses, falling to the ground below. Philip II's guards are alerted and chase the assassin away, but he slips on a rock and drowns in a nearby stream. What are the impacts that this has? Who will succeed Philip? Does Philip succeed in his campaign against Persia? What are the impacts throughout the Mediterranean? What happens to Egypt?

 

[isabella]

POD: The incident at Cleopatra Eurydice's wedding doesn't happen, and Alexander and his mother do not flee Macedonia for Epirus, while relations between Philip II and Alexander are restored enough that Alexander attends the wedding of Philip's daughter Cleopatra of Epirus to Alexander I of Molossia, while Pausanias chooses a different method of assassination, trying to shoot Philip down. Pausanias, his vision unclear and blurred, mistakes Alexander in his royal garb for Philip II, and fires an arrow at him, which pierces his heart and kills him. He attempts to shoot Philip after realizing that he killed the wrong person, but the arrow narrowly misses, falling to the ground below. Philip II's guards are alerted and chase the assassin away, but he slips on a rock and drowns in a nearby stream. What are the impacts that this has? Who will succeed Philip? Does Philip succeed in his campaign against Persia? What are the impacts throughout the Mediterranean? What happens to Egypt?

You have a very confused idea of what happened in OTL, as Alexander was present at the wedding of his sister and their maternal uncle and had already reconciled enough with his father. Trying to kill Philip with an arrow would be a pure folly for Pausanias and as the two Alexander were together and few steps behind Philip, reason for which they had not seen the assassination who happened after Philip had just entered inside the grounds of a theatre, whose stands were full of people, while they were still outside and about to follow Philip inside.
Olympias maybe was not returned in Macedonia (as that wedding between her own daughter and brother was arranged by Philip for depriving her of her brother’s support) but Alexander was part of the celebrations and was not in a position in which would possible mistaking him for his father.
If the incident at Philip’s wedding had never happened then Alexander would NOT escape from Macedonia, would have no reason for feeling adirate or put aside and his relationship with Philip would not be strained, making Cleopatra wedding to her uncle less likely to happen. Also Pausanias himself was one of Philip’s bodyguards and that was the reason for which he was able to kill him as his position had not made anyone suspiciou. A bow and arrows would be much more suspicious (and he would be unable to shoot from the theatre’s stands or any other place)