WI: North Korea did the Boston Marathon bombings

[GFW]

If America found out NK did it?

Well, in North Korea: The Impossible State Victor Cha (former Director for Asian Affairs in the NSC) says that a direct terrorist attack on US soil would be one of the few cases where America would attack NK, and wouldn't stop until the Kim regime was deposed. And I expect the public would support this.

 

[Tripledot]

If America found out NK did it?

Well, in North Korea: The Impossible State Victor Cha (former Director for Asian Affairs in the NSC) says that a direct terrorist attack on US soil would be one of the few cases where America would attack NK, and wouldn't stop until the Kim regime was deposed. And I expect the public would support this.

That brings up an interesting idea: what if South Korean spies pull a false-flag operation on US soil in an attempt to get the United States to depose the Kim regime and reunite Korea?

 

[Queeney]

China would definitely back America on this one. Not just because they have issues with North Korea's hissy fits, but because they too have major problems with bombings by Uighur Islamist separatists. At this point, Kimland would surely be fucked, if not by the US, then by China for being a sponsor of terrorism. This is one step too far.

Pretty much this. In fact, China would be just too happy to finally have an excuse to free herself from the chains that are bounding her to the DPRK. And besides that, I could easily see a then united Korea eventually turning into an economic vassal of the PRC.

There wouldn't be a reason anymore to keep the bankrupt DPRK as a vassal, if you can have a rich, successful, and united Korea as such.

 

[Kung Fucious]

That brings up an interesting idea: what if South Korean spies pull a false-flag operation on US soil in an attempt to get the United States to depose the Kim regime and reunite Korea?

The only thing is that, AFAIK, South Korea doesn't really want to reunify with North Korea, especially not after nearly two decades of Extra-Strength Kim family craziness. Reunification would sink their economy and gift them millions of starving, backward near-refugees who would need an enormous reeducation effort to integrate into the country.

 

[Alex1guy]

That brings up an interesting idea: what if South Korean spies pull a false-flag operation on US soil in an attempt to get the United States to depose the Kim regime and reunite Korea?

Why would South Korea risk an operation that would potentially 1) Piss of it's biggest ally, an ally that has military bases all across it's country and a navy patrolling it's seas 2) Possibly reunify them with a bitter and angry North Korean State who's population has been brought up to hate you, and chain themselves to the millstone that is the North Korean economy? 3) Make them face devastation of their country through war and have hundreds if not thousands of South Korean sons in what will be a short, but nasty conflict.

It's reached a point where South Korea is hesitant about reunification, because that means supporting and reeducating 20 million+ people who have only known poverty and propaganda (and who bring that to the tale and little else) and destroying decades worth of economic growth and progress.

 

[Tripledot]

Why would South Korea risk an operation that would potentially 1) Piss of it's biggest ally, an ally that has military bases all across it's country and a navy patrolling it's seas 2) Possibly reunify them with a bitter and angry North Korean State who's population has been brought up to hate you, and chain themselves to the millstone that is the North Korean economy? 3) Make them face devastation of their country through war and have hundreds if not thousands of South Korean sons in what will be a short, but nasty conflict.

It's reached a point where South Korea is hesitant about reunification, because that means supporting and reeducating 20 million+ people who have only known poverty and propaganda (and who bring that to the tale and little else) and destroying decades worth of economic growth and progress.

I know- something like this probably would never happen- but it seems likelier than North Korea doing the same thing. At least the South Koreans would have an actual motive.

 

[Alex1guy]

I know- something like this probably would never happen- but it seems likelier than North Korea doing the same thing.

I have to admit, having the Norks committing a terrorist attack on the US would be really REALLY stupid, borderline ASB stupid. I honestly don't even think they could do it, I'm pretty sure that Nork spies are really crap. The Kim's are a lot of things, but they are actually intelligent in how they treat the West. A lot of their game is rhetoric, but they know they exist at the whim of the United States and China. Attacking the US on their home territory would only invite further ruin, either by invasion or by embargo and they know it. They can shell the South occasionally, make empty threats but actually killing US citizens and attacking US soil would not be something they would do out of the blue. China would also be screaming at the Kim's, the last thing they want is American boots south of their border, and if the US doesn't depose the Kim's, China will be looking for an uppity general who's more willing to comply with Beijing's will. The Kim regime is only inherently interested in one thing, survival.

 

[fscott]

Well, it would be an act of war if the US wanted to see it that way. However consider the following.

1) South Korea may be reluctant to agree to the USA kicking off a major war on the Korean peninsula particularly as Seoul is within artillery range of the border. The DPRK has a ridiculous amount of tube and rocket artillery pointed at the South Korean capital. I suspect the RoK would not like having to rebuild most of its modern infrastructure or cope with the tens of thousands of casualties that would result.

2) North Korea has a nuclear weapons program (thank you Dr Khan), how many of them they have and how reliable and deliverable they are is a worrying question. The Japanese may also be reluctant to agree to the US using their bases in Japan for ops against the DPRK as there is a risk Tokyo could be flash fried.

3) Apart from the Norths nuclear program they also have a significant chemical capability, they also have a lot of long range artillery and ballistic missiles which could be (are?) fitted with chemical agent warheads.

4) China may decide to resolve the issue by either engineering a coup in the DPRK (there have been suggestions they have tried this previously, but to be honest the internal politics are so opaque who'd know) which would put the US in quandry, do they attack a country which now has a new regime and backed by China?; Alternatively, the Chinese may just go for broke and eliminate the DPRK themselves, less likely maybe but possible. In the long term this may result in the RoK becoming either non-aligned or actively cooperating with China. Having the outdated DPRK military across the border is one thing, having the PLA sitting there becoming increasingly state of the art is another.

5) The cost of a war against the DPRK in both men and materials would be horrendous. The likely casualty rates just on the US side would be horrific as the DPRK is literally dug in with numerous hardened artillery sites, bunker complexes, underground airbases (like something off thunderbirds) and millions of men under arms or in militia units. The US would literally be fighting for every city, town, village and hamlet. If it went nuclear, the losses would be even worse.

Given the above it is possible the US would settle for some sort of (even more) punitive sanctions or very limited military action such as a Tomahawk strike against a number of NK military installations.

You stated the terrorist attack would only be an act of war if the US wanted it to be. If you attack another country, and that would be what NK did, what would you call it? Also While an attack would have casualties in the US Military most of the dead would be NK's. Our technology means we would be able to to a lot from the air. The built in artillery isn't safe from all weapons. With out nukes things like napalm and fuel air bombs would help a lot. Nukes would only be used if they did first.

 

[Crowbar Six]

I agree with you, however the Norks have a Nazi like love of digging and concrete, they have been at it for decades. They have all sorts of stuff buried in the most odd places. The west has much better tech than the NK's but that doesn't mean they would not take time to neutralize them. It wouldn't simply be a case of pushing a button and instantly zapping the NK's long range tube and rocket artillery, it would require a prolonged air campaign and even with boots on the ground it would still take time to winkle them out.

This would not be a re-run of GW1 where the Iraqi army was in open field without cover, the NK would be litterally dug. And they would likely fight and fight hard.