WI: No Chongyu War/ No Japanese second invasion of Korea

[GameBawesome]

The Japanese Invasions of Korea is one of the most pivotal moments in East Asian history, yet understudied elsewhere. It was when the Japanese under Toyotomi Hideyoshi sought to invade Ming China via Joseon Korea. At first, the Japanese steamrolled the Koreans on land, and pushed into the country. However, their efforts began to falter because of their naval loses against the legendary Admiral Yi Sun-sin, and also Guerilla fighting by Koreans, and then the arrival of Ming Chinese reinforcements

It's commonly known as the Imjin War, but in actuality there were two invasions: First was the Imjin War, the second was called the Chongyu War.

The Chongyu War happened because after brief truce between 1594-1596, but the negotiation fell apart and Hideyoshi invaded Korea again. In the end, the Japanese pulled out after the death of Toyotomi Hideyoshi in 1598. What made the second phase of the war famous was the Battle of Myeongnyang and the Battle of Noryang, the latter of which saw Admiral Yi Sun-sin die.

In the end, there was countless deaths and nothing really to show. The Toyotomi Regime was weakened and allow the Tokugawa Clan to take power. In Joseon Korea, it weakened the country and allowed Manchu's to vassalize the kingdom. And In Ming China, it destroyed the finances, and later the Manchu Qing Dynasty took over China.

I've asked before about what if the entirety of the Imjin War was avoided, but here's a little difference: What if the negotiations between 1594-1596 achieved a concrete peace, meaning the Chongyu War never happened, and the Japanese didn't invade for a second time.

Now, this may seem inconsequential and that true. But there two changes I could see: Firstly, Admiral Yi Sun-sin doesn't die, and secondly, Toyotomi has a slightly a little more time to sort out the government for his son, Hideyori (OTL, he made the Council of Five Regents, just right before his time). How would this effect things for East Asia? What would Yi Sun-sin's legacy hadn't Myeongnyang happened and went out with a last hurray at Noryang?

 

[HyperMuscularDemon]

First and most obviously, Japan and Korea will have quite a grudge for some time. Secondly, the Qing might not even exist in this timeline or at least not rise to as much prominence as OTL because the Imjin/Chongyu was greatly weakened the Ming, so the Ming might survive, albeit greatly weakened.

 

[Hearkener]

What would Yi Sun-sin's legacy hadn't Myeongnyang happened and went out with a last hurray at Noryang?

He'd just be a national hero and legendary commander, instead of the greatest admiral who ever lived.

 

[WhatSantayanaSaid]

First and most obviously, Japan and Korea will have quite a grudge for some time. Secondly, the Qing might not even exist in this timeline or at least not rise to as much prominence as OTL because the Imjin/Chongyu was greatly weakened the Ming, so the Ming might survive, albeit greatly weakened.

Well, even with the second phase of the war, diplomatic relations between Joseon Korea and Japan normalized pretty quickly. Within a decade (and a year into the new king's reign), trade was reopened and ambassadors were going between the two soon thereafter. The leadership of Japan had also changed at that point, and the daimyo who contributed most to the war had lost the most with Sekigahara and Tokugawa ascendancy. Granted, part of it could've been because the Jurchen/Manchu were becoming a bigger threat, but King Gwanghaegun was a noted pragmatist in dealing with the Manchu, so relations probably normalize when he ascends to the throne.

The Qing likely do much worse, though it's less on how the Ming were weakened (after all, it took another 40+ years for the Manchu to take Beijing and 80+ years to conquer China) by the war and more the Ming (and Joseon) have the bandwidth to intervene to prevent full Jurchen unification earlier. The Ming didn't send that many troops during the first phase of the war (IIRC it was around 40-50k, which got bumped up to >100k in the second phase), so they likely don't take much damage at all. After all, the fighting didn't last all that long after the Ming entered the war (it was a year or so).

He'd just be a national hero and legendary commander, instead of the greatest admiral who ever lived.

Considering the royal court's treatment of Admiral Yi before and during the war despite (or rather, due to) his victories, it's not unlikely King Seonjo offs him. Admiral Yi was rather popular due to his successes (contrasted with the king's failure to defend the country and and he fled north, leaving his subjects to fend for themselves) and had some powerful enemies who managed to already accuse him of desertation and subjected him to torture and stripping of rank when he was in the army. It was that sort of toxic culture that made the Japanese invasion so successful to begin with. Add that to the fact that the Joseon dynasty was founded in a coup by a popular rogue general who built up his powerbase on the basis that the royal court was unable to defend the people from wokou raiders and Admiral Yi's glory becomes a double edged sword.

As for long term effects for the Joseon, not having to pick between the Manchu and Ming, plus a lesser debt to the Ming, means King Gwanghaegun has an easier time staying on the throne (OTL he was overthrown for a combination of factors, like fatricide, but his refusal to side with the Ming in the Manchu-Ming wars proved to be fatal). He's the one who normalized relations with Japan and refused to throw Korea in a war against the militarily superior Manchu, so he has a good chance of stabilizing Korea after the war, unlike his successor, Injo. Injo's reign was founded in a coup and marred by rebellion and Manchu invasion. Plus, Injo allegedly murdered his son, the Crown Prince, after the latter showed interest in western medicine, science, and religion after the prince's time in Qing Beijing. Avoiding Injo potentially means a much more open Korea that might accept western innovations and trade much earlier (rather than confining stranded Dutch sailors in a zoo-village). The introduction of potatoes and sweet potatoes (which could grow in areas not suited for rice farming, like much of the north) over a century earlier (when Japan got them) would've helped increase the food supply and thus population growth far earlier, plus stability from fewer famines, etc.