WI: "Neocolonalism" in the 19th Century/European Economic Imperialism in Africa

Alright, this title is an oxymoron, but hear me out.

In OTL, the Scramble for Africa was the large-scale colonization by Europeans, where they met in the Berlin Conference, which finalized European colonization and trade in Africa, and is usually referred to as the starting point of the Scramble for Africa. In the end, many African Kingdoms and nations such as the Sokoto, Gaza, Zanzibar, Morrocco, Kongo, and even the Boers would fall to European powers. Previously, there was some European conquests of Africans, such as Britain and the Zulus, and the French in Algeria. Some countries ruled through indirect rule, and had some African nations that ended up as protectorates like Morocco and Zanzibar, while others were outright conquered such as the Sokoto, Oyo, and Boers.

However, what caused the European Scramble for Africa is a bit more complicated, and can be centered down to these points:
Economic - The Europeans needed cheap materials, limited competition, and abundant raw materials to fuel their economies. However, this came at the cost of markets that Europeans can sell their goods to (Besides China). Best example is Leopold II of Belgium, who personally claimed the Congo for himself, mostly for economic value.
Strategic rivalry - Some colonies were founded out of trying to connect their colonies together, to keep their rivals out. Best example is the British, trying to make the Cape to Cario Railway, but other attempts included the French and Portuguese.
New European Powers - With the emergence of Belgium, and the unifications of the Kingdom of Italy and the German Empire, they wanted colonies for either economic reasons, or to make themselves a great power on the world for prestige. This led to the previous stated cause, Strategic Rivalry, and lead to the Europeans colonizing certain key areas, like the French in Tunisia, or the Italians in Eritrea.

In the 20th to 21th Century, after the fall of European colonial empires, there arrived a new system of Imperialism, called Neocolonialism. Instead of direct military control or indirect political control, African nations are dominated by foreign powers through economic imperialism, cultural imperialism and conditional aid to dominate a country. More modern examples, are China, France and even the USA and Soviets during the Cold War.

With all that in mind, What If, with a POD between 1800 to 1900, the Europeans didn't conquer all of Africa and rule it directly? Instead, they just colonize the coasts or around rivers, while dominating African kingdoms through economic imperialism, cultural imperialism and conditional aid, to create European spheres of influence and string of African puppets that fight one another?

Instead of a Scramble for Africa, it is more of Great Game of Africa?
 
Well, to keep the middleman around, it must be able to provide something of use. I can't quite imagine such a role to play for native rulers, though.
 
This probably requires the Cape Colony existing, and growing in population, but never passing under permanent British rule. It'll help also if the French don't opt for direct rule in Algeria.
 
I think that it might help if free trade, as opposed.to protectionism, remained big from the mid-19th century on. If anyone can access African markets, why try to extend your sovereignty over them?
 
I've seen it claimed that one of the factors behind the Scramble was that France was smarting from its defeat in the Franco-Prussian War and wanted to conquer some more colonies to restore its prestige, and then the rest of Europe decided they didn't want to fall behind and starting colonising more land themselves. If this is accurate, then one way of avoiding the Scramble for Africa would be to avoid the war, make France win it, or make France lose in a less humiliating way.

As for what would happen, basically the pre-Scramble status quo would continue. Possibly down to the present day -- it's much easier to keep control of a single city or small region than an entire country (cf. Hong Kong, French Guyana, etc.), so these alt-empires would be less overstretched and liable to collapse when the metropole starts facing problems.
 
One important thing about colonialism that I think is important to remember is that colonialism, by and large, does not pay for countries. With exceptions like lightly populated territories rich in some resources, the costs of administering colonial territories tend to outweigh the benefits. Consider the case of British India, where direct British rule was relatively limited until the mid-19th century and the surviving princely states retained substantial autonomy even afterwards.

Colonialism might have had non-material benefits, prestige and the like, and certain sectors of colonial powers' economies might have benefited from the colonial effort, but colonialism generally was costly.
 
Modern Africa would be a horrid sight.
There would be 2 options
>Number One
Africa's interior remains underdeveloped, and metropolitan states clustering near the coast use this to funnel it's resources to the world. Acting as brokers in the far less developed continent, they would promote tribalistic conflict in order to profit, with vying states pushing and pulling with their influence. Settler colonism would likely increase a couples notches, so you would see french-majority algeria, portguese-majority angola, and british/boere majority cape.
 
Modern Africa would be a horrid sight.
There would be 2 options
>Number One
Africa's interior remains underdeveloped, and metropolitan states clustering near the coast use this to funnel it's resources to the world. Acting as brokers in the far less developed continent, they would promote tribalistic conflict in order to profit, with vying states pushing and pulling with their influence. Settler colonism would likely increase a couples notches, so you would see french-majority algeria, portguese-majority angola, and british/boere majority cape.

How do you get that last?
 
How do you get settler-majority.pooulations in the Cape, Algeria, and especially Portuguese Angola?
Those colonies are significantly smaller and it would be in the vested interest of their owners to keep them closer and more integrated with their respective metropoles. This shouldn't be very hard at all with small, coastal strips of land.
 
Those colonies are significantly smaller and it would be in the vested interest of their owners to keep them closer and more integrated with their respective metropoles. This shouldn't be very hard at all with small, coastal strips of land.

That just does not follow.

French Algeria, for instance, was a narrow strip of land for most of its early history, but the multicultural population of French citizens never amounted to more than 15% of the population. Algeria just was not that attractive to European migrants, and besides that had an economy based on the superexploitation of relatively abundant natives.

The Cape came close, I grant, though I wonder if it would experience the same economic growth as OTL without the vast resources of the South African interior.

As for Portuguese Africa, considering.that these territories were unhealthy for Europeans, that Portugal was too poor to be able to compensate.for this, and that Portuguese emigrants had other much more attractive options, I do not see it.
 
I wonder if we could get settler colonies in the Pacific instead since they had fewer and historically more vulnerable native populations
 
Modern Africa would be a horrid sight.
There would be 2 options
>Number One
Africa's interior remains underdeveloped, and metropolitan states clustering near the coast use this to funnel it's resources to the world. Acting as brokers in the far less developed continent, they would promote tribalistic conflict in order to profit, with vying states pushing and pulling with their influence. Settler colonism would likely increase a couples notches, so you would see french-majority algeria, portguese-majority angola, and british/boere majority cape.
Terrible, if not bordering on racist, viewpoint. What historical precedent do you even have for that? Why wouldn’t Africans ITTL be able to engage in the same state building that comes with modernization as every over civilization on the periphery of colonization has done. Is Ethiopia far less developed than its neighbors?? How about China or Japan?? Honestly the white savior complex is showing.

Also a note, neocolonialism as I’ve learned it refers specifically to the exploitation of former colonial systems by the former colonizing power and the continuation of those systems post-“flag independence” as opposed to economic or cultural independence. A better term for what you’re describing would be economic imperialism, that being just one aspect of neocolonialism and lacking the other aspects of it.

Africa ITTL would slightly mirror the development of Latin America in the 20th century and its relationship with the USA, as victims of economic imperialism and interventionism.
 
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Let's say that the Dutch retain the Cape for reasons, and its borders stabilize at the Orange and Buffalo Rivers. Following Mfecane, the Dutch then build a ring of buffer native states around the periphery and lose most avenues of direct expansion except towards OTL Namibia. Nonetheless, some Boers and other Europeans do settle in this African-ruled polities, brining Christianity, writing, weapons, and blending their notions of statecraft with those of the locals.

Mustafa IV succeeds in killing his brothers and never produces a male heir. Seeing the writing on the wall, the beys in North Africa forge alliances and/or suzerainty with the powers of Europe. In flow doctors, weapons, and European nodes of statecraft. The upheavals brought on by the Ottoman collapse triggers the fall of Oman and the retreat of its political an cultural elites to Zanzibar to a much greater extent than they were already there. The Portuguese, Dutch, and others then find native polities looking for alliances and protection against the Omanis, while others seek the support of the Omanis against European-aligned polities.
 
I would argue that Africa echoes Latin America OTL, in that both world regions saw independence come precipitously, as world powers withdrew. Africa is just lucky in that it experienced nothing akin to Spain's attempted reconquests.
 
Then, the French decide to apply the lessons of Algiers to Senegal, and begin converting its colony there into a client state organized largely along French lines but with local features and Wolof the dominant language. Dutch policy TTL in South Africa is provoking greater rivalry with Portugal, now busy building its own client states among the Rozwi and the Fon, the latter facing down the Dutch Gold Coast, and in Gabu, a Malian successor eager for support against the Fula and concerned about French expansion.
 
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