No, but they will start replacing their EC with IC ones when they wear out.So all the people, & more importantly all the companies, who found them exceedingly useful will just throw them over?
Where is the need (not desire, need) for the PO or phone company for an entire fleet of cars capable of range over 80mi?
People buy based on desires as well as needs. Do you NEED a TV or a radio or books or hundreds of other things? No, but most people have them anyways even though they would not die without them.
It would fall far more than that.Some will. I've already allowed for that, by reducing the T's sales by more than half OTL.
The vast majority will want greater speed and range.You said it yourself: half the sales will be urban. That 7.5 million is half again what I presume, & over seven hundred times what you do. Allowing some potential customers will, indeed, want greater range, I'm putting sales at 5 million
Because batteries can store only so much energy. They aren't going to come up with lithium batteries decades before OTL as they are too high tech. You can get higher speed, at considerably lower range.And why do you presume speeds are incapable of improvement? Too inconvenient for you?
And they went out of business. That's how it goes. Those companies that make dumb decisions go out of business , those that don't stay. Ford isn't going to get competition from the idiots but the ones that made good decisions.And there were companies like Pierce-Arrow and Colt & innumerable others who didn't change to assembly line as late as 1940. Assembly line manufacturing & heavy emphasis on standardization was nothing like as obvious as you made out.
Some will, while it is still competitive but once EC can't compete they will make IC cars. They don't have to make EC if IC cars takes away its market share.Moreover, if the EC market is just so unattractive & improbable as you make out, who's going to be trying to take it from a company that so dominates it?
Also, Chevy was outselling Ford in part because Henry resisted changing the T. TTL, it would be less a problem, since the competition would probably be less stiff. (You seem to think "non-existent", but that's a bit too much to hope for.)
Why? People suddenly decide that they shouldn't go into the car business because Ford is making electric cars? Ford making EC doesn't suddenly make the car business unprofitable.
Not enough, it is an energy problem. Batteries store very little energy compared to gasoline or diesel oil. There is no way around it as that is the nature of batteries.Really? The usefulness of ECs has disappeared? The T has made exactly no improvement in range, speed, comfort, or features in 25yr?
And there's no chance at all a successor model will offer improvements?
So the entirety of Ford management are idiots?
Not enough because of the nature of batteries.
Yes, hundreds of pounds of batteries are very expensive. Much more expensive than a gas tank!So between 1900 & even 1920, Ford is completely incapable of making a car so much cheaper & easier to operate than every IC car in the world, only a few thousand would be sold?
You don't need to want to drive cross country. Wanting to drive from Milwaukee to Chicago is sufficient.You think a desire to drive across country will trump a desire to drive a cheaper car?
Why do I find that improbable?
In your market that only allows customers who want to drive to Florida, no.
In the real world?
Not just from Milwaukee to Florida but also from Milwaukee to Chicago or Pittsburgh to Cleveland.
Even people who don't normally drive long distances will want the option to do so if something comes up or even just occasionally. Driving long distances just once a month is more than sufficient to get a car with long ranges and short refueling times.Oh, wait, you reject the very prospect of people who don't want to drive long distances. In spite of the number of people who don't every day of the week.
Very few people won't give a damn. You don't need to go across country. 30 miles will be enough.Lovely for people with a burning desire to take long trips. Not so significant for the people who don't give a damn.
Like the phone company. Tell me again how phone company employees have a need to take emergency trips in company cars halfway across the country? Or even halfway across the state?
I was trying to demonstrate how impractical it would be to go more than about 25 miles or so. I take an IC engine car that is low on fuel 60 miles away. I run low so I go to a gas station and have the serviceman pump it for five minutes (we are talking about an era before self service) and I am on my way. Total refueling time: 5 minutes. I take my EC. I go 50 miles and recharge. Recharge time: 8 HOURS. So I twiddle my thumbs for 8 hours and then arrive at my destination. I use up ten of the miles completing the journey. I go back 40 miles and run out of juice. I figure I am going to be home in 20 miles so I don't juice it up all the way. I juice it up 1/3 to get home where I can recharge it when I sleep. That will take me a little over 2 1/2 hours. Total recharge time 10 1/2 HOURS as compared to 5 minutes.Remarkable. Now it's 50mi! Range has doubled in less than a decade, with no effort from Ford at all.
Tell me again how people who only need to drive from home to work & back will prefer IC? My dad used to drive 26mi each way to work every day. Even he had no need for IC. Tell me he needed IC.
Tell me how taxi companies need cars that can travel 100mi at a trip & refuel in 5min, when the cabs are only, maybe, driven that far in a day, & can spend hours charging?
Almost all of them. A taxi not going a hundred miles a day is a taxi company going broke. You want those taxis out on the street getting fares not spending time in a garage getting recharged.
Fleet users aren't the big problem. Joe six-pack is. Many more cars are bought by Joe Six-pack than the gas utility.Even allowing cab companies might be reaching, tell me how other fleet users will. You've been willfully ignoring them from the start.
Millions of people did not have the option of an electric as cheap as a Model T, either.
They will. Ford wasn't a magician. Ford Corporation became number 2 in the late 20s.
They don't have to ALWAYS drive 40+ miles (putting at 20 MPH) . Even occasional drives of that distance would be enough.And your proposition of only ever driving 80mi on one leg & stopping is not how most people drive most of the time. Not in the 1910s, 1920s, 1930s, or now.
What part of "changing driver behavior based on changed conditions" do you not understand?
The part where you don't change the conditions that much. Once cheap ICs come along (and they WILL) their overwhelming advantages will put Ford out of business unless he also changes to IC cars.
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