Let’s say that Mary contracts a disease and dies in 1552 or so, taking her out of the succession. Assuming Edward still dies on time, Elizabeth is next in line by statutory law, but I would imagine that as IOTL, Elizabeth would be disinherited by Edward, and Jane Grey would be queen. Would Elizabeth (only about 20 at this time) be able to martial the support her elder sister was able to IOTL and force the council to declare her king, or would Jane remain in place? I’m also not sure to what extent she was Catholic vs Protestant at this point, as without any knowledge it seems plainly possible that she would be Catholic without Mary’s reign more or less discrediting Catholicism. Alternatively, is it possible that Edward would have used Mary’s death to become closer to his sister Elizabeth and assured of her commitment to Protestantism?
WI: Mary dies before Edward VI
- Thread starter KaiserWilhelm
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If she demands that they declare her king there will be a boisterous 16th century discussion of pronouns and gender identity
AIUI, IOTL Edward disinherited Elizabeth only because he thought he couldn't separately disinherit Mary. Elizabeth being Protestant, there would be no opposition to her succession, and Northumberland trying to substitute his daughter-in-law (Jane) would blow up in his face.
True. About the only thing he could use is Elizabeth being a possible bastard and product of a bigamist relationship (Catherine was already safely dead by the time Edward came along so no issue there). It will look like nothing more than an attempted coup and should be easy to defeat, especially as Edward had no reason to agree this time.
Interesting question is where Liz goes with religion? OTL she took a middle road due to the mess Mary and Edward had both made by seesawing to far to extremes. Coming to power at barely 20 and without the chance to essentially redo the "breakaway" without Mary's return to Rome she might be stuck with the more extreme Protestantism tried by Edward.
She's also going to face much more pressure to marry and won't be able to point to England nearly ending up a Spanish satellite state as an excuse not to do so, especially with her defacto heir being Scottish, female and (from 1559) the Queen of France.
Her heir is actually the Grey girls. Per Henry's 1453 Act of Succession, assuming it's not set aside, it's Ed, Ed's babies, Mary, Mary's babies, Liz, Liz's babies, Jane Grey, Katherine Grey, Mary Grey. Both daughters of Mary Tudor, Queen of France, were excluded for some reason.
Margaret Tudor's line were expressly excluded.
Liz could, if she wants to put of marriage for a few years, go "Look, I have heirs. Marry them off. Let them have babies to shore up the succession... just in case."
Possibly, depends how many start plotting, get caught plotting and get dead. Although without the nine days Jane is staying her default heir for a while in this case. Although if James VI turns out as OTL a unified crown will remain attractive especially if any of the others cannot have children.
The exclusion is almost certainly political as the rough wooing went very badly for Henry and even if it hadn't being at war with both France and Scotland would make including the Stuart's a political problem since (as did occur with Mary Queen of Scots and the Spanish) one potential win condition becomes the death of everyone else higher up the line.
Mary is heir presumptive de jure not de facto. Given Mary's religion and position, the de facto heir would be Jane Grey. Which leaves Northumberland in a very nice position without sticking his neck out. He also has incentive to support Elizabeth in refusing to marry.
If he can stay on her good side while living to say 60 (1564), the Dudley position could become very strong. The big question is how do Elizabeth and Jane get on? (And Jane's husband Guildford.) Could they be friends? If Elizabeth resists pressure to marry, Jane would have an obvious motive to support her. But that could earn her the enmity of the rest of the court. If Elizabeth has a proposed match fall through, Jane's rivals would probably seek to blame her, and maybe even turn Elizabeth against her.
OTOH if Elizabeth remains the Virgin Queen, while Jane has a son George in 1555 and other children, and Jane dies in 1585 (age 48), Elizabeth will recognize George as heir. If Jane lives, she would pass her claim to George, The union of England and Scotland will be put off.
I'm thinking it's inevitable at some point but as James spent the Scottish half of his reign building it into an actual functioning country instead of the disjointed clan fiefdoms it had been under his weak predecessors Scotland might be able to endure on its own. Of course England and France are still the coming powers so Scotland might still end up in a union at some point simply to avoid being a complete puppet with no say in things.
Also Liz herself nearly made 70 so Jane could still be alive in 1603, although by then she'll either have passed her claim to a son or will immediately abdicate in favour of her own daughter as that would be like coming to the throne at 100 today.
No she wouldn't be. Elizabeth was only disinherited IOTL because Edward could not disinherit Mary without ALSO disinheriting Elizabeth
With a PoD in 1552, James VI is butterflied. MQoS may never return to Scotland, Francis II may live longer. Even if Francis dies as OTL (and by 1552 his physiology is set, so that is likely) and Mary returns to Scotland, her marrying Darnley is unlikely. Plus the disputes over her rule will almost certainly go differently.
If Mary stays in France or has no children, the succession may go to the Hamiltons.
No need to disinherit Elizabeth if Mary is already dead. Elizabeth would NOT return to Catholicism and neither moderate the Protestantism of Edward…
Frances was in the line of succession after Elizabeth and she would be the heiress presumptive. In OTL she was excluded as Edward’s original will was in favour of Lady Jane Grey’s MALE heirs (as Edward was quite against female rulers) later amended in Lady Jane AND her male heirs (and Frances naturally was seen as too old for having more children at this point). Eleanor was already dead before Edward VI’s will BUT her daughter Margaret Clifford was in the line of succession
She would, though. It'd be smarter for her too - she'd still need to deal with Catholics...
Trying to remember what source I got this from, but there are some scholars who seem to be under the impression that even without Mary, Edward would have disinherited Elizabeth either way with the belief that both of his sisters are bastards who shouldn't have had a claim, with the Grey girls being more preferable without the stain of illegitimacy. So, there's that.
I'll update this message when I find the source. I have. so many books.
I'll update this message when I find the source. I have. so many books.
1) Edward's device was specifically to remove Mary from the succession and settling it on a preferred Protestant successor.
2) He was also concerned that both his sister's were illegitimate by law and therefore should not succeed him.
3) He like many of his faith believed a woman should not have rule over men - he was therefore also strongly motivated by a desire to avoid a female succession - his first drafts of his device left the throne to the heirs male of the Lady Jane Grey for example.
If Mary is dead 2 and 3 still apply and he may well consider a new device - but perhaps this time he will amend his device to the heirs male of the Lady Elizabeth etc. In a scenario with Mary dead you are going to see Edward much keener on getting his sister Elizabeth married suitably and speedily - they had a reasonable relationship, though the scandal around her name over his uncle might cause him to to still favour his undoubtedly legitimate second cousins.
2) He was also concerned that both his sister's were illegitimate by law and therefore should not succeed him.
3) He like many of his faith believed a woman should not have rule over men - he was therefore also strongly motivated by a desire to avoid a female succession - his first drafts of his device left the throne to the heirs male of the Lady Jane Grey for example.
If Mary is dead 2 and 3 still apply and he may well consider a new device - but perhaps this time he will amend his device to the heirs male of the Lady Elizabeth etc. In a scenario with Mary dead you are going to see Edward much keener on getting his sister Elizabeth married suitably and speedily - they had a reasonable relationship, though the scandal around her name over his uncle might cause him to to still favour his undoubtedly legitimate second cousins.
To whom? Probably not to any of her OTL suitors since that'd cause personal union
Mary being dead, Felipe II probably marries Maria, duchess of Viseu. It means he is not available in 1559 to marry Elisabeth de France who likely ends up with Don Carlos.
Also, Henri II's fatal jousting accident has good chances to be butterflied away with all the consequences that entail.
Also, Henri II's fatal jousting accident has good chances to be butterflied away with all the consequences that entail.
Not necessarily. It's possible that Maria dies in childbirth (like 3/4 of Philip's wives IOTL). But Elisabeth ending up with Don Carlos would be interesting as their children would be strongest claimants to Portugal after Sebastian...
ITTL, Mary dies in 1552, and Edward still dies in 1553, so Elizabeth is heir presumptive for only one year. She's only 18-19.
Also, since Edward is not of age, any royal marriage would be arranged by the regency council, i.e. Northumberland and company. Which is awkward, as by 1552, Edward is only three years from his majority, and there would be a lot of resistance to Northumberland pre-empting Edward. And by early 1553, Edward is visibly ill and probably dying, so Elizabeth is less than a year from becoming Queen, so there would be resistance to pre-empting her. Also, with her husband likely to be prince consort, that choice will become very deliberate.
With Mary dead, I don't think Edward will have a problem accepting Elizabeth as his heir. It was Mary's fervent Catholicism that worried him, really, but he couldn't take Mary out of the Succession because she was a bastard - which was the official reasoning - and not do the same for Elizabeth. In this world, I suspect Edward will just marry Elizabeth off to someone (either a junior foreign prince or one of his favourites) and name her his heiress rather than Jane.