WI: Joseph Ferdinand Prince of Asturias lives?

[Emperor Constantine]

I know we've had this discussion several times over the years but I recently saw some new information on Wikipedia and have been reading the book How Spain became a World Power by Henry Kamen so I wanted to restart the discussion. This is the link to the previous discussion:http://forums.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=81655.

For those of you who don't know who I'm talking about, Joseph Ferdinand of Bavaria, Prince of Asturias was the great-nephew and heir of Carlos II the bewitched of Spain. If he had lived he would have became King of Spain and his ascension would have avoided the War of the Spanish Succession. Sadly he died at age six, thus leaving the question of Spain unanswered, eventually leading to a Bourbon Succession in Spain and a War in Europe. So what if Joseph Ferdinand didn't die and instead became King?

OK ,having got that out of the way, the new info I found addressed the Regency, with a Governing Regency board being created, with Cardinal Luis Manuel Fernández de Portocarrero as Regent-Governor. So would this last past the first few months or would we see Elector Maximilian become Regent? Also, what would happen in Spain itself? We've discussed the possible fate of Spain's European Empire but not Spain itself. It was the War of the Spanish Succession that allowed Philip V to issue the Nueva Planta decrees, which abolished the Crown of Aragon and Catalonia and incorporated these territories into the Castilian, or rather Spanish, Crown, thus formally creating the modern Spanish State. So without a Succession war to divide the Spanish Crowns would we see a unified Centralized State form in Spain or would it be pushed back for decades, if not centuries? Finally what about Bavaria? Would we see a personal Union form between Spain and Bavaria or would we see Jose Fernando (Spanish version of his name) to renounce his Bavarian rights in favor of his brother Charles Albert, OTLs Emperor Charles VII? And Finally what would his Regal name be? Jose I? Fernando IV? Or even Jose-Fernando, similar to Franz Joseph and John Paul's double names?

 

[Janprimus]

I can see the house of Bourbon and the (Austrian branch of the) house of Habsburg wanting and getting a part of the inheritance. Maybe the house of Savoy with a weaker claim and less means to enforce it could get something out of it too.

Territories on the table (though not all have to change hands) would be the Spanish possessions on the Italian peninsula (the kingdoms of Naples (with the state of Presidi), Sicily and Sardinia and the duchy of Milan) and the Southern Netherlands.
However we discussed already that. Still whether or Spain and Bavaria will be held under a personal union could have an influence on this too. Austria for instance could also receive some Bavarian Lands in addition to some Spanish territories.
A personal union doesn't seem impossible, but at the same time Joseph Ferdinand being made to renounce his claims in favour of his half brother (witn no claim on Spain) Charles Albert is a real possibility during any peace settlement.

I guess reforming Spain itself will be slower and harder, but in the long run might also be less resented.

 

[Emperor Constantine]

I can see the house of Bourbon and the (Austrian branch of the) house of Habsburg wanting and getting a part of the inheritance. Maybe the house of Savoy with a weaker claim and less means to enforce it could get something out of it too.

Territories on the table (though not all have to change hands) would be the Spanish possessions on the Italian peninsula (the kingdoms of Naples (with the state of Presidi), Sicily and Sardinia and the duchy of Milan) and the Southern Netherlands.
However we discussed already that. Still whether or Spain and Bavaria will be held under a personal union could have an influence on this too. Austria for instance could also receive some Bavarian Lands in addition to some Spanish territories.
A personal union doesn't seem impossible, but at the same time Joseph Ferdinand being made to renounce his claims in favour of his half brother (witn no claim on Spain) Charles Albert is a real possibility during any peace settlement.

I guess reforming Spain itself will be slower and harder, but in the long run might also be less resented.

Sounds about right but this is something I've been thinking about: Would Spain take the division of its empire lying down? Because OTL Carlos left the entire Spanish inheritance to Philippe Duc de Anjou and never acknowledged the treaties of Partition. Also, initially, the great powers accepted Philip V as Sovereign of the entire Spanish Empire. So would we see England and the Netherlands be willing to recognize Jose Fernando as Sovereign of the entire Spanish Empire, and not just Spain and the Colonies (and possibly the Netherlands, not sure if they would stay Spanish or no)? If thats a yes then I can't see Austria going to war. Austria was fairly weak after the War of the Grand Alliance and the Great Turkish war, so without British backing we could reasonably see a less confident Austria, in military terms at least. As for France, well thats anyone's guess. I can see France challenging Spain for a piece of of the pie, either in Italy or the Netherlands, but then again we could see something else entirely, like the Spanish Regency giving Louis XIV garrison rights in the Netherlands and a marriage alliance between the two nations.

 

[Janprimus]

Sounds about right but this is something I've been thinking about: Would Spain take the division of its empire lying down? Because OTL Carlos left the entire Spanish inheritance to Philippe Duc de Anjou and never acknowledged the treaties of Partition. Also, initially, the great powers accepted Philip V as Sovereign of the entire Spanish Empire. So would we see England and the Netherlands be willing to recognize Jose Fernando as Sovereign of the entire Spanish Empire, and not just Spain and the Colonies (and possibly the Netherlands, not sure if they would stay Spanish or no)? If thats a yes then I can't see Austria going to war. Austria was fairly weak after the War of the Grand Alliance and the Great Turkish war, so without British backing we could reasonably see a less confident Austria, in military terms at least. As for France, well thats anyone's guess. I can see France challenging Spain for a piece of of the pie, either in Italy or the Netherlands, but then again we could see something else entirely, like the Spanish Regency giving Louis XIV garrison rights in the Netherlands and a marriage alliance between the two nations.

This scenario does open up another possibility France and Austria, maybe joined be less powerful claimants such as Savoy, could join forces. However then Austria probably will want a bit more than the duchy of Milan, but maybe the Southern Netherlands and a favourable border adjustment with Bavaria could do the trick.
If France wants to keep involvement of the Sea Powers (England-Scotland & the Dutch Republic) as small as possible, then leaving the Southern Netherlands alone would be the best way forward. That way France would be in a better position to gain the kingdoms of Naples & Sicily, the state of Presidi, the marquisate of Finale and the province of Guipuzcoa, which under the first partition treaty were assigned to France.
Spain would be allowed to keep the Crown of Castille, the Spanish parts of the Crown of Aragon, the kingdom of Sardinia and the Southern Netherlands.
The duchy of Milan was assigned to Austria under the terms of that treaty basically between France and England. The signatories of that treaty also shows the weakness of that treaty; it wasn't really acceptable for many of the other involved rulers (and claimants).
Spain wanted to keep their empire intact, whereas Vienna that they deserved more than just Milan. It is true that the ambitions of Austria were more focused on the Italian Peninsula, however the Southern Netherlands basically is the only 'available' important territory left, which unlike Sardinia doesn't require a naval presence in the Western Mediterranean. Sardinia probably stays Spanish or (I know like OTL) would be territory France and Austria could decide to reward Savoy with, if Savoy would want to ally with them. However Savoy was far more interested in Milan, so I'm not sure whether Sardinia and the prospect to become a king, will be enough.

Under a scenario where somehow all parties involved are willing to accept that Joseph Ferdinand receives the entire Spanish inheritance, a provision that he renounces his claims of Bavaria in favour of Charles Albert coulc become more likely.
OTOH if it would come to a conflict, then Austria with the military capacity in the HRE could potentially succeed in occupying Bavaria and extract such a provision any way.

 

[Emperor Constantine]

This scenario does open up another possibility France and Austria, maybe joined be less powerful claimants such as Savoy, could join forces. However then Austria probably will want a bit more than the duchy of Milan, but maybe the Southern Netherlands and a favourable border adjustment with Bavaria could do the trick.
If France wants to keep involvement of the Sea Powers (England-Scotland & the Dutch Republic) as small as possible, then leaving the Southern Netherlands alone would be the best way forward. That way France would be in a better position to gain the kingdoms of Naples & Sicily, the state of Presidi, the marquisate of Finale and the province of Guipuzcoa, which under the first partition treaty were assigned to France.
Spain would be allowed to keep the Crown of Castille, the Spanish parts of the Crown of Aragon, the kingdom of Sardinia and the Southern Netherlands.
The duchy of Milan was assigned to Austria under the terms of that treaty basically between France and England. The signatories of that treaty also shows the weakness of that treaty; it wasn't really acceptable for many of the other involved rulers (and claimants).
Spain wanted to keep their empire intact, whereas Vienna that they deserved more than just Milan. It is true that the ambitions of Austria were more focused on the Italian Peninsula, however the Southern Netherlands basically is the only 'available' important territory left, which unlike Sardinia doesn't require a naval presence in the Western Mediterranean. Sardinia probably stays Spanish or (I know like OTL) would be territory France and Austria could decide to reward Savoy with, if Savoy would want to ally with them. However Savoy was far more interested in Milan, so I'm not sure whether Sardinia and the prospect to become a king, will be enough.

Under a scenario where somehow all parties involved are willing to accept that Joseph Ferdinand receives the entire Spanish inheritance, a provision that he renounces his claims of Bavaria in favour of Charles Albert coulc become more likely.
OTOH if it would come to a conflict, then Austria with the military capacity in the HRE could potentially succeed in occupying Bavaria and extract such a provision any way.

The main thing I see is if Spain is willing to fight for the inheritance we could see the Sea powers, and no doubt Portugal, go to bat for Spain. If they recognize Jose Fernando as King of the entire Inheritance then we might see Austria rethink their actions, though I can't see France backing down. To Austria I can see the other powers think that they've already got a large amount of territory from the Great Turkish War, and disregard their arguably weak claims. I mean none of the Italian territories were ever attached to the House of Austria. Though the Netherlands were partially (the Burgundian Netherlands were ruled by Maximilian for his son Philip the Handsome). But if Italy is divided up I can see Sardinia going to Savoy so Austria wouldn't have to give up any part of Milan. Though for France I wonder if they might try to waive their claims in exchange for Lorraine? I mean the French definitely wanted the Duchy so perhaps a swap in which Lorraine gos to France, the Duke of Lorraine gets Milan and Austria gets the Two Sicilies. Sardinia could go to Savoy.

As for the Regency, any idea of whether or not the Regency set up by Carlos II would last until Jose Fernando's majority or would we see the Elector Maximilian take the reigns? And finally who do you think for a bride? After going threw the available princesses, I can see a match with France, Austria and perhaps Portugal.

 

[Janprimus]

Actually the claims of the house of Habsburg were stronger than the claims Joseph Ferdinand, which in part came through the Austrian branch of the house of Habsburg. In fact following the will of king Philip IV (father of Charles II) they would have had the strongest claim, especially since Maria Theresa of Spain from which the house of Bourbon traced their claim had renounced her succession right (but Spain didn't pay her entire dowry).
In short the Austrian branch of the house of Habsburg had a strong claim; though the dispute was about who had the strongest claim.

Also the Spanish and Austrian Habsburg both could be considered part of the 'house of Austria', since they all had Philip the Handsome as common ancestor.
Also the territorial gains of the house of Habsburg was more like restoring the borders of the kingdom of Hungary, which they (according to some claimed) had ruled since 1526.

Still this all leads to the Austrian Habsburgs not being too happy with any division, which only grants them the (albeit important) duchy of Milan.
Any France would need to offer the Austrian Habsburgs more than that if they want to persuade the Austrian Habsburgs to a Franco-Austrian alliance in a potential conflict.
If anything with the First Partition Treaty the Austrian Habsburgs might, though heavily disappointed, opt to accept Joseph Ferdinand as the heir of the entire Spanish inheritance, if Joseph Ferdinand renounces his rights on Bavaria in favour of his half brother.

Adding Lorraine would make things more complex. I'm not sure Lorraine & Bar would be deemed enough by France.
The duchy of Milan is strategically located, also for the security of the Austrian Habsburg Lands. Though the house of Lorraine had been a loyal ally of the Austrian Habsburg for some time now.
Naples and Sicily, though prestigious might be harder to defend by Austria than Milan or the Southern Netherlands (any threat there would come from France, so they have support of the Sea Powers there) for that matter.

Imho prince-elector Maximilian will certainly be a part of the regency, though he might need to be assess the 'room' he has wisely.

A potential French match could be Marie Louise Élisabeth d'Orléans, who IOTL married the duke of Berry, the Portuguese Infantas Francisca Xaviera, Teresa Maria or Francisca Josefa and the Austrian archduchesses Maria Josepha and Maria Amalia are all possibilities, maybe Maria Luisa of Savoy (almost 4 years his senior), who IOTL maried OTL Philip V could be an outsider.
A Portuguese match seems interesting, especially since the best possible (legitimate) French match would be with someone from a cadet branch; also as founder of a 'new' dynasty in Spain a Royal match (and an Iberian one) could be more interesting too.

 

[Emperor Constantine]

Actually the claims of the house of Habsburg were stronger than the claims Joseph Ferdinand, which in part came through the Austrian branch of the house of Habsburg. In fact following the will of king Philip IV (father of Charles II) they would have had the strongest claim, especially since Maria Theresa of Spain from which the house of Bourbon traced their claim had renounced her succession right (but Spain didn't pay her entire dowry).
In short the Austrian branch of the house of Habsburg had a strong claim; though the dispute was about who had the strongest claim.

Also the Spanish and Austrian Habsburg both could be considered part of the 'house of Austria', since they all had Philip the Handsome as common ancestor.
Also the territorial gains of the house of Habsburg was more like restoring the borders of the kingdom of Hungary, which they (according to some claimed) had ruled since 1526.

Still this all leads to the Austrian Habsburgs not being too happy with any division, which only grants them the (albeit important) duchy of Milan.
Any France would need to offer the Austrian Habsburgs more than that if they want to persuade the Austrian Habsburgs to a Franco-Austrian alliance in a potential conflict.
If anything with the First Partition Treaty the Austrian Habsburgs might, though heavily disappointed, opt to accept Joseph Ferdinand as the heir of the entire Spanish inheritance, if Joseph Ferdinand renounces his rights on Bavaria in favour of his half brother.

Adding Lorraine would make things more complex. I'm not sure Lorraine & Bar would be deemed enough by France.
The duchy of Milan is strategically located, also for the security of the Austrian Habsburg Lands. Though the house of Lorraine had been a loyal ally of the Austrian Habsburg for some time now.
Naples and Sicily, though prestigious might be harder to defend by Austria than Milan or the Southern Netherlands (any threat there would come from France, so they have support of the Sea Powers there) for that matter.

Imho prince-elector Maximilian will certainly be a part of the regency, though he might need to be assess the 'room' he has wisely.

A potential French match could be Marie Louise Élisabeth d'Orléans, who IOTL married the duke of Berry, the Portuguese Infantas Francisca Xaviera, Teresa Maria or Francisca Josefa and the Austrian archduchesses Maria Josepha and Maria Amalia are all possibilities, maybe Maria Luisa of Savoy (almost 4 years his senior), who IOTL maried OTL Philip V could be an outsider.
A Portuguese match seems interesting, especially since the best possible (legitimate) French match would be with someone from a cadet branch; also as founder of a 'new' dynasty in Spain a Royal match (and an Iberian one) could be more interesting too.

By weak claims I mean the fact that, legally if Maria Theresa's renunciation is valid, then Jose Fernando is the rightful heir, being the grandson of Margaret Theresa. Though if the renunciation is invalid, then Maria Theresa's descendents would be the rightful heir. Though going back farther, then the Bourbons would still have a superior claim, sense Anne of Austria was older then her sister Maria Anna.

As for the Hungarian gains, I meant the great powers might consider allowing the entire Spanish inheritance go to Jose Fernando since Austria was already made large gains. This would be from the other great powers (ie Britain and the Netherlands) perspective, not Austria's obviously.

Truth be told I can see, if France doesn't try to go to war for Naples and Sicily, the rest of Europe forcing Austria to accept the agreement, though renouncing Bavaria seems realistic. Governing Bavaria with Spain seems very difficult.

I wasn't sure if Lorraine was ever mentioned in any of the partition treaties so IDK if the Duchy would ever come up in a treaty. However, I would think that France would be more interested in gaining either Lorraine or the Spanish Netherlands for itself, rather than the Two Sicilies for a second grandson. Though it might be better for the House of Lorraine could get the Two Sicilies, Milan to go to Austria and Sardinia gos to either Savoy or stays with Spain. Though then again I don't know it anyone would necessarily want to give Lorraine on of the most valuable parts of Italy, not to mention it would elevate the former Duke to being a King. Not to sure which way it would go.

That's what I thought as well. I can't see the new King's father not playing a part in a Regency. Though he might not become formal Regent/ leader of the Council since he's foreign and I don't think the Spanish would react well to a foreigner ruling Spain, seeing that they didn't like the French advisers that came with Philip V.

For a Royal Bride, I think Marie Louise Élisabeth d'Orléans is a good choice but the only problem is she had no surviving children. They all died very young so that could just push the succession problem down the road. Tough then again the problems could be from her first miscarriage, when she was forced to take a carriage ride while heavily pregnant. If this doesn't occur she might have better luck. Louise Adélaïde d'Orléans is also an option, though her age might be pushing it. To the Portuguese matches, I can only find info about Francisca Josefa, and her age might be pushing it. A seven year difference might be to much for a new dynasty. For the Austrian matches, I think the most likely are Archduchess Maria Magdalena, daughter of Leopold I or Archduchess Maria Josepha daughter of Joseph I. Maria Amalia is way to old in my opinion. A nine year difference is huge in a good dynasty. With one that's teetering on the edge its not gonna happen. Finally, Philip V's OTL brides, either Maria Luisa or Elisabeth Farnese might be good matches. Maria Luisa's not to old and could help with links to Italy. Same for Eliabeth but with the possibility of adding Parma and Tuscany to Spanish Italy.

My best guesses would be a French, Austrian or Savoy match. France might be bet financially, sense Louis XIV gave huge dowries for his family and would actually pay them.

 

[Janprimus]

By weak claims I mean the fact that, legally if Maria Theresa's renunciation is valid, then Jose Fernando is the rightful heir, being the grandson of Margaret Theresa. Though if the renunciation is invalid, then Maria Theresa's descendents would be the rightful heir. Though going back farther, then the Bourbons would still have a superior claim, sense Anne of Austria was older then her sister Maria Anna.

As for the Hungarian gains, I meant the great powers might consider allowing the entire Spanish inheritance go to Jose Fernando since Austria was already made large gains. This would be from the other great powers (ie Britain and the Netherlands) perspective, not Austria's obviously.

Truth be told I can see, if France doesn't try to go to war for Naples and Sicily, the rest of Europe forcing Austria to accept the agreement, though renouncing Bavaria seems realistic. Governing Bavaria with Spain seems very difficult.

I wasn't sure if Lorraine was ever mentioned in any of the partition treaties so IDK if the Duchy would ever come up in a treaty. However, I would think that France would be more interested in gaining either Lorraine or the Spanish Netherlands for itself, rather than the Two Sicilies for a second grandson. Though it might be better for the House of Lorraine could get the Two Sicilies, Milan to go to Austria and Sardinia gos to either Savoy or stays with Spain. Though then again I don't know it anyone would necessarily want to give Lorraine on of the most valuable parts of Italy, not to mention it would elevate the former Duke to being a King. Not to sure which way it would go.

That's what I thought as well. I can't see the new King's father not playing a part in a Regency. Though he might not become formal Regent/ leader of the Council since he's foreign and I don't think the Spanish would react well to a foreigner ruling Spain, seeing that they didn't like the French advisers that came with Philip V.

For a Royal Bride, I think Marie Louise Élisabeth d'Orléans is a good choice but the only problem is she had no surviving children. They all died very young so that could just push the succession problem down the road. Tough then again the problems could be from her first miscarriage, when she was forced to take a carriage ride while heavily pregnant. If this doesn't occur she might have better luck. Louise Adélaïde d'Orléans is also an option, though her age might be pushing it. To the Portuguese matches, I can only find info about Francisca Josefa, and her age might be pushing it. A seven year difference might be to much for a new dynasty. For the Austrian matches, I think the most likely are Archduchess Maria Magdalena, daughter of Leopold I or Archduchess Maria Josepha daughter of Joseph I. Maria Amalia is way to old in my opinion. A nine year difference is huge in a good dynasty. With one that's teetering on the edge its not gonna happen. Finally, Philip V's OTL brides, either Maria Luisa or Elisabeth Farnese might be good matches. Maria Luisa's not to old and could help with links to Italy. Same for Eliabeth but with the possibility of adding Parma and Tuscany to Spanish Italy.

My best guesses would be a French, Austrian or Savoy match. France might be bet financially, sense Louis XIV gave huge dowries for his family and would actually pay them.

Your right, though the will of Philip IV did strengthen the position of the Austrian Habsburgs.

None of the other Powers would want Austria or France getting the entire Spanish Inheritance, however France and Austria getting certain bits is quite possible and acceptable for the other Powers. Also the Sea Powers would oppose France gaining the Southern Netherlands, but France making gains in other regions would raise far less opposition, obviously within limits.

IIRC Lorraine was mentioned in the negotiations of the partition treaties, after the early death of Joseph Ferdinand. During negotiations of the IIRC second partition treaty they considered giving the duke of Savoy the kingdoms of Sicily and Naples in exchange for the lands he ruled at that point, which would go to France. If Savoy refused, then they would do the same offer to Lorraine. However Savoy was only willing to give Savoy proper to France, but they refused to give up Piedmont. Also though a Royal Crown was tempting their first priority was the duchy of Milan. Though in the end they decided against this option.

I agree that Austria wouldn't go to war, if France also doesn't start a conflict; otherwise they could make useful allies for each other. Though like I wrote early, if France and Austria would ally, then they probably would need to offer Austria a bit more and the easiest way to do that is to reduce the Spanish share.
Also no union between Spain and Bavaria, especially when the entire Spanish Inheritance stays intact and goes to Joseph Ferdinand, seems desirable for the other Powers; so I think we're in agreement there.
Apart from the practical issues, but in partition of the Spanish Inheritance scenario, then IMHO the chances of keeping a union between Spain and Bavaria would improve, since fewer will object to that.

A while back in a similar thread I came up with the following suggested partition:

Joseph Ferdinand inherits Spain (the Crown of Castille and the Iberian part of the Crown of Aragon (and the Balearics)).
France gains the duchies of Lorraine, Bar and Savoy Proper.
Savoy, now de facto Piedmont, gains the duchy of Milan and the kingdom of Sardinia (but loses Savoy Proper to France; one territory compensates for the loss of Savoy Proper, whereas the other is granted in recognition of their claims).
The former duke of Lorraine and Bar receives the kingdoms of Naples and Sicily. (The house of Lorraine had inherited a claim on the kingdom of Naples from the house of Valois-Anjou.)
Finally Austria gains the Southern Netherlands. (Other powers would object it going to France and the Austrian claims need to be recognized too; for Austria it may feel as a consolation price though with them probably preferring territories in Italy, though the Southern Netherlands were still quite wealthy.)

Though would France and Austria want to leave Italy to the houses of Lorraine and Savoy? If France prefers direct gains and the Southern Netherlands could also pass directly pass to Austria, then the other Powers could ''convince'' Austria to do the same. Spain too might need to be pressured into accepting this.

 

[Emperor Constantine]

Your right, though the will of Philip IV did strengthen the position of the Austrian Habsburgs.

None of the other Powers would want Austria or France getting the entire Spanish Inheritance, however France and Austria getting certain bits is quite possible and acceptable for the other Powers. Also the Sea Powers would oppose France gaining the Southern Netherlands, but France making gains in other regions would raise far less opposition, obviously within limits.

IIRC Lorraine was mentioned in the negotiations of the partition treaties, after the early death of Joseph Ferdinand. During negotiations of the IIRC second partition treaty they considered giving the duke of Savoy the kingdoms of Sicily and Naples in exchange for the lands he ruled at that point, which would go to France. If Savoy refused, then they would do the same offer to Lorraine. However Savoy was only willing to give Savoy proper to France, but they refused to give up Piedmont. Also though a Royal Crown was tempting their first priority was the duchy of Milan. Though in the end they decided against this option.

I agree that Austria wouldn't go to war, if France also doesn't start a conflict; otherwise they could make useful allies for each other. Though like I wrote early, if France and Austria would ally, then they probably would need to offer Austria a bit more and the easiest way to do that is to reduce the Spanish share.
Also no union between Spain and Bavaria, especially when the entire Spanish Inheritance stays intact and goes to Joseph Ferdinand, seems desirable for the other Powers; so I think we're in agreement there.
Apart from the practical issues, but in partition of the Spanish Inheritance scenario, then IMHO the chances of keeping a union between Spain and Bavaria would improve, since fewer will object to that.

A while back in a similar thread I came up with the following suggested partition:

Joseph Ferdinand inherits Spain (the Crown of Castille and the Iberian part of the Crown of Aragon (and the Balearics)).
France gains the duchies of Lorraine, Bar and Savoy Proper.
Savoy, now de facto Piedmont, gains the duchy of Milan and the kingdom of Sardinia (but loses Savoy Proper to France; one territory compensates for the loss of Savoy Proper, whereas the other is granted in recognition of their claims).
The former duke of Lorraine and Bar receives the kingdoms of Naples and Sicily. (The house of Lorraine had inherited a claim on the kingdom of Naples from the house of Valois-Anjou.)
Finally Austria gains the Southern Netherlands. (Other powers would object it going to France and the Austrian claims need to be recognized too; for Austria it may feel as a consolation price though with them probably preferring territories in Italy, though the Southern Netherlands were still quite wealthy.)

Though would France and Austria want to leave Italy to the houses of Lorraine and Savoy? If France prefers direct gains and the Southern Netherlands could also pass directly pass to Austria, then the other Powers could ''convince'' Austria to do the same. Spain too might need to be pressured into accepting this.

I finally got around to looking at the treaty of the Hague, the formal name of the first partition treaty, and what it says is very interesting.

Spain, the Indies and the colonies would go to Jose Fernando. Naples Sicily and the Tuscan territories would go to le Grand Dauphin. Archduke Charles would actually get the Spanish Netherlands and Lorraine would get Milan, ceding Lorraine and Bar to the Dauphin. Ironically Savoy wasn't mentioned at all in the first treaty. Nor was Savoy directly mentioned in the second treaty either, which switched out Jose Fernando with Archduke Charles (I assume he would keep the Netherlands but its not mentioned one way or the other). Not sure about Sardinia, it was never mentioned. So I would guess it stays Spanish or gos to Savoy.

Another thing I think we forgot was Carlos II and the Spanish Nobility. They were never consulted about the partition treaties, and when they found out about them, rejected them completely. Remember Carlos II left Philip V the entire Spanish inheritance, so I think we would see that happening again with Jose Fernando. I think this is the most likely scenario: Carlos II leaves everything to Jose Fernando, pissing off both Austria and France but leaving them powerless for the time being. No doubt we'll get a Bavarian renunciation, but other then that, nothing. Well unless France and Austria are willing to go to war over it. Now wouldn't THAT be strange bedfellows. Spain, Britain, the Netherlands and I would guess Portugal vs. Austria and France, with Savoy and Prussia up for grabs ally wise.

What would be interesting is if Spain is able to make the necessary internal reforms. I think we can both agree they were necessary but the question is would it be possible this early in the game with no war. I think that without a war the reforms, which abolished the minor Spanish kingdoms and annexed them to Castile, would have more resistance, sense Aragon's fighting capabilities weren't depleted by the Succession war. Though another key question is what would happen to the European Empire. How would its governance change? I imagine that Italy would become semi-independent, no longer being attached to Aragon. Though how this would affect the region long term is anyone's guess. The Same with the Spanish Netherlands. Technically the Netherlands were independent, merely attached to Spain in Personal Union by the King. I wonder if there would be an attempt to Spanishize the Netherlands? It happened in other nations, like Russia or Germany so IDK if it would happen here.

 

[miguelrj]

I think that without a war the reforms, which abolished the minor Spanish kingdoms and annexed them to Castile, would have more resistance, sense Aragon's fighting capabilities weren't depleted by the Succession war.

I can't see Aragon being integrated in Castile peacefully either. Maybe the kings of Spain are cautious and keep ruling Aragon seperately.

I imagine that Italy would become semi-independent, no longer being attached to Aragon.

Wasn't there a Council of Italy (totally indepedent from the one of Aragon) that oversaw the Italian realms?

 

[Emperor Constantine]

I can't see Aragon being integrated in Castile peacefully either. Maybe the kings of Spain are cautious and keep ruling Aragon seperately.




Wasn't there a Council of Italy (totally indepedent from the one of Aragon) that oversaw the Italian realms?

I don't know. Spain desperately needed reform. We'll eventually see Aragon integrated into Castile but it depends on whether the Regency Council and Elector Maximilian are willing to try it during their administration. If not then it will wait until Jose Fernando's majority.

As for a Council of Italy, yes there was one, but I'm not sure how much power it actually had.

 

[Janprimus]

Regarding the role of Savoy and Lorraine in the Partition treaties, I wasn't referring to the final agreement, but the considered possibilities before the negotiating parties came to an agreement.
However not much is mentioned about Sardinia. Still if the duke of Savoy is allowed to unite the principality of Piedmont with the duchy of Milan, then Sardinia would be the only 'Spanish kingdom in Italy', which others might be willing to grant them (both Naples and Sicily would be deemed too much).
Though at same time it is quite possible that Sardinia stays Spanish.

(Also the house of Lorraine wouldn't be considered either, since under this scenario they would already have been richly compensated with the kingdoms Naples & Sicily in exchanges for their duchies Lorraine and Bar. This still only leaves Spain or the house of Savoy as potential candidates for Sardinia.)