WI Ireland took advantage of the Falklands War to launch a sneak attack on Britain and liberate Ulster?

[durante]

Are we even sure the ROI wants to integrate Northern Ireland?

 

[sparky42]

Are we even sure the ROI wants to integrate Northern Ireland?

In theory, yes... In practicality? Ask again if its ever an actual thing.

 

[thezerech]

While the initial premise is ASB, even the IRA wouldn't have supported it (for obvious tactical and strategic reasons), perhaps we can go further back.

If we go pre-1914, maybe change multiple events dealing with Home Rule, WWI, or the Irish War of Independence, you could radically change Irish domestic politics. Maybe Home Rule isn't passed, the Easter Uprising goes off as planned and is much better armed and organized, Collins executes his planned invasion of Ulster before the Civil War kicks off and Ireland gets temporarily reoccupied leading to much more active resentment of Britain,* maybe Eoin O'Duffy turns Ireland into a Fascist dictatorship? Or some other PODs, especially if we can get Ireland to be aligned with the Soviet Union, somehow, during the Cold War and therefore have both the desire and means to arm itself seriously. Of course, we run the risk of creating so many PODs we butterfly away the Falklands. Anyways, let's Ireland somehow becomes a pro-Soviet dictatorship (which don't get me wrong would take many many PODs) and builds up its military all the while increasing support to the IRA or a TTL equivalent in NI. Even then, a conventional invasion would probably be dumb, because the UK would, if it bordered a hostile regime, be more ready for it; also a dictatorship would probably make Republicanism less popular among NI Catholics anyways. In this scenario maybe a war happens by accident, border skirmishes and terror attacks lead to gradual escalation? I'm curious what others think.

*Pretty sure I read this in Michael Collins's biography, but I borrowed my father's copy and don't have it with me. If I'm misremembering this I'd be happy to be corrected.

 

[TDM]

Are we even sure the ROI wants to integrate Northern Ireland?

In theory, yes... In practicality? Ask again if its ever an actual thing.

Yeah this +1, I'm also guessing it politically hard to say anything other than yes out loud?

Actually from you experience what is the prevailing thinking in the Republic about the Unionists in NI if there was unification (is there even a prevailing idea of how that would go)?

 

[Nezza 001]

There's also NATO article 5:

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_110496.htm#:~:text=With%20the%20invocation%20of%20Article,necessary%20in%20the%20particular%20circumstances.

 

[yulzari1]

The one thing the period Dublin government feared above all else was suddenly being handed the problem to solve for themselves.

 

[vizzer]

As the Falklands war only lasted 74 days unless the Irish have an operation planned and prepared to go at a time of British "distraction" then by the time they are ready the war is probably over.
In the latter case the sane members of the Irish establishment are probably doing anything they can to stretch out the delays in order for realism to break out.

 

[sparky42]

Yeah this +1, I'm also guessing it politically hard to say anything other than yes out loud?

Actually from you experience what is the prevailing thinking in the Republic about the Unionists in NI if there was unification (is there even a prevailing idea of how that would go)?

Pretty much every politician will have some line about how they would like to see it in their lifetime, just guessing they all hope to be out of any position in politics if that ever happens.
Generally from my experience the more people think about it, the more problems crop up, from the big ticket items like paying for NI and the security issues, to symbols like the flag or anthem.

 

[sparky42]

As the Falklands war only lasted 74 days unless the Irish have an operation planned and prepared to go at a time of British "distraction" then by the time they are ready the war is probably over.
In the latter case the sane members of the Irish establishment are probably doing anything they can to stretch out the delays in order for realism to break out.

The other point of course is that any planning/preparation is going to leak like a sieve five seconds after it’s ordered, hell British intelligence would probably know before some of the senior officers of the DF… Sneaking up on the U.K. from next door isn’t really an option.

 

[sarahz]

The Falklands War (in 1982) was concurrent with the Troubles. What if Ireland had taken advantage of the British Armed Forces being occupied in the Southern Hemisphere to launch a sneak attack to liberate Ulster and Unite Ireland?

What would happen to the British Protestants in Northern Ireland and the Irish Catholics in Britain (there are many in Liverpool)? Would some Greece/Turkey style population exchange likely result?

Could Ireland have successfully pulled this off? Would the US have come to Ireland's aid? Reagan (US President at the time) was half Irish and apparently sympathized with Ireland.

How would this have effected the EU?

With just what armed forces are Ireland going to do this. They would not even out gun the RUC to any significant degree let alone the British Military in the Province. Any Irish Politician who even suggested this would be immediately committed to the nearest Mental Hospital..

 

[Cryptic]

Didn't the IRA get weapons from the Nazis during the war?

I am thinking very token amounts at best.

I believe that the German effort was to develop spies that would expand into saboteurs and agents provacateurs, then, in time to larger scale armed resistance. But.... even that effort was not getting a lot of traction amongst the IRA.

At the end of the day, a certain number of IRA men had willingly fought for the British Empire in WWI. What ever they felt about the need for armed resistance was probably being muted by a distaste of performing it under German direction and in response to German bidding.

Likewise the extent of the political, social and economic inequalities in Northern Ireland's "special system" was either not as broad in the 1940s, or not as evident. Rather, the situation became ripe for violence in the 1960s when one just wanted something better and the other side refused reforms.

 

[Cryptic]

Delete, mis read time line.

 

[Giant Man Eating Rabbits]

There's also NATO article 5:

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_110496.htm#:~:text=With%20the%20invocation%20of%20Article,necessary%20in%20the%20particular%20circumstances.

The UK wouldn't use or ask NATO members to trigger it.

Why would they?

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

The UK wouldn't use or ask NATO members to trigger it.

Why would they?

Britain invoking article 5 would be telling the world that they needed help to defeat an army that consisted of the rough equivalent of a single small light infantry division with no aircover.

At that time the Territorial Army hugely outnumbered the Irish, let alone the regulars and recallable reservists. (There were probably more Irish in the British armed forces than the Irish Army)

 

[Nezza 001]

The UK wouldn't use or ask NATO members to trigger it.

Why would they?

Under the circumstances they wouldn't because the British forces on the ground would be able to repel them but the psychological threat of NATO tearing the Irish a new one would be a huge dissuader.

 

[Matador de Lagartos]

I understand that Ireland at the time had no interest or desire whatsoever to do any such thing, and even less ability.
The chances of this succeeding are so remote that they do not deserve consideration.
Such an action would trigger NATO Article 5 response, so the US would be obligated to intervene against Ireland, up to and likely including full military commitment if necessary. Which probably would not be because Britain would probably be able to handle the matter alone. Regardless, Reagan would be livid. This messes mightily with his overarching foreign policy goal, which was anti-Communism (specifically, anti-Soviet-aligned-Communism). The maximum support the Republic can expect from Washington is like refraining from nuking Cork.
Also, Britain is a nuclear power. Generally speaking, you don't launch sneak attacks against the sovereign territory of nuclear powers. It's stupid and dangerous, and any even remotely sane Irish leadership would get that very basic point.
This is only possible in the sense of not violating any actual physical law.

Nukes are meaningless in this regard, the UK is not nuking Ireland. This is delusional.

 

[sparky42]

Under the circumstances they wouldn't because the British forces on the ground would be able to repel them but the psychological threat of NATO tearing the Irish a new one would be a huge dissuader.

If an Irish Government is insane enough to take on the UK, the threat of NATO is pointless, the Government has decided to commit suicide, everyone telling them not to won't matter.

 

[Falecius]

Nukes are meaningless in this regard, the UK is not nuking Ireland. This is delusional.

They won't need to.

 

[Garrison]

This is one of those scenarios that isn't ASB, but where alien intervention would be more plausible.

 

[sparky42]

I understand that Ireland at the time had no interest or desire whatsoever to do any such thing, and even less ability.
The chances of this succeeding are so remote that they do not deserve consideration.
Such an action would trigger NATO Article 5 response, so the US would be obligated to intervene against Ireland, up to and likely including full military commitment if necessary. Which probably would not be because Britain would probably be able to handle the matter alone. Regardless, Reagan would be livid. This messes mightily with his overarching foreign policy goal, which was anti-Communism (specifically, anti-Soviet-aligned-Communism). The maximum support the Republic can expect from Washington is like refraining from nuking Cork.
Also, Britain is a nuclear power. Generally speaking, you don't launch sneak attacks against the sovereign territory of nuclear powers. It's stupid and dangerous, and any even remotely sane Irish leadership would get that very basic point.
This is only possible in the sense of not violating any actual physical law.

Article 5 isn't automatic, unless the UK calls for it, so in "reality" everyone else would just sit back and watch while wondering what drugs are available in Dublin to have set this in motion.