WI: Iraq partitioned

[kernals12]

Iraq is dominated by 3 ethnoreligious groups: the Shiites, the Sunnis, and the Kurds. They all live in seperate parts of the country and as such, it has been suggested that the country be split among these lines. So what if the coalition forces had done so after the invasion?

 

[Lalli]

It would had been very stupid idea. Turkey wouldn't had been happy with independent Kurdistan and might had invaded the country. Not way that Turkey would allow any independent Kurdish state.

Iran would try capture Southern Iraq. Central Iraq (Sunni state) would be mess without sea and oil accesses. And they would be pissed to Americans about that. There wouldn't be winners. Middle East would be in fire some years earlier.

 

[Colonel Zoidberg]

It would had been very stupid idea. Turkey wouldn't had been happy with independent Kurdistan and might had invaded the country. Not way that Turkey would allow any independent Kurdish state.

Iran would try capture Southern Iraq. Central Iraq (Sunni state) would be mess without sea and oil accesses. And they would be pissed to Americans about that. There wouldn't be winners. Middle East would be in fire some years earlier.

I understand that there are a number of ethnic Kurds in Turkey, but what I don’t understand is why Turkey would give a shit if a mini-Kurdistan is created in northern Iraq with no Turkish territory taken.

As for your other point, the only possible way it works is with a shit-ton of international intervention, especially from the US, UN and coalition forces. Otherwise, if it’s left to languish, it’s in a ton of trouble no matter how it’s partitioned.

 

[kernals12]

It would had been very stupid idea. Turkey wouldn't had been happy with independent Kurdistan and might had invaded the country. Not way that Turkey would allow any independent Kurdish state.

Iran would try capture Southern Iraq. Central Iraq (Sunni state) would be mess without sea and oil accesses. And they would be pissed to Americans about that. There wouldn't be winners. Middle East would be in fire some years earlier.

Iraqi Kurdistan has good relations with Turkey IOTL.

 

[kernals12]

The coalition would not create an independent Kurdistan just to let it be taken over by Turkey.

 

[Analytical Engine]

I understand that there are a number of ethnic Kurds in Turkey, but what I don’t understand is why Turkey would give a shit if a mini-Kurdistan is created in northern Iraq with no Turkish territory taken.

Turkey wouldn't want to give their own Kurds any ideas.

 

[Colonel Zoidberg]

Turkey wouldn't want to give their own Kurds any ideas.

What’s stopping them from saying, “Migrate to Kurdistan if you wish, but we’re not forking over any land”?

 

[Analytical Engine]

What’s stopping them from saying, “Migrate to Kurdistan if you wish, but we’re not forking over any land”?

The ideas in this case being "We Kurds want to be part of that independent Kurdistan". Which Turkey wants to avoid, because it would mean losing a large chunk of land.

 

[kernals12]

The ideas in this case being "We Kurds want to be part of that independent Kurdistan". Which Turkey wants to avoid, because it would mean losing a large chunk of land.

Turkey is used to losing large chunks of land.

 

[kernals12]

Turkey wouldn't want to give their own Kurds any ideas.

I think Turkish Kurds would be pissed about an attack on Iraqi Kurds.

 

[Jürgen]

If Iraq had to partitioned we should at least do a better job at it, the Yezidi Kurdish majority areas have ended up in Sunni “Iraq, so have the Assyrian triangle, and several Kurdish areas. Some Shia and Sunni areas have also ended up in the wrong country.

 

[thekingsguard]

You'd probably see a bigger chunk of Iraq given to Kurdistan, since that was the one region that would reasonably be expected to be peaceful and pro-Western. Ironically, since the Iraqi Kurds have always had issues with the Turkish Kurds, I can see Turkey being pretty warm on the idea - especially if oil pipelines from Kurdistan should go through Turkey, making them some money.

It's the Sunni and Shiite half that will be a mess - maybe carve off a chunk of the South and give it to Kuwait, and give a large bit of the Sunni bit to Jordan. The rump Shiite Iraq that's left? Aside from Baghdad, it's broke, backward and jumps whenever Iran says frog.

 

[Francisco Cojuanco]

View attachment 469548
Iraq is dominated by 3 ethnoreligious groups: the Shiites, the Sunnis, and the Kurds. They all live in seperate parts of the country and as such, it has been suggested that the country be split among these lines. So what if the coalition forces had done so after the invasion?

-Turkey would rain down all hellfire short of leaving NATO at the existence of an independent Kurdistan
-the problem is some of the major cities. Baghdad, Kirkuk and Mosul are notoriously religiously and ethnically mixed. The last two also have the trait of being near to lots of that oil IIRC.

 

[kernals12]

-Turkey would rain down all hellfire short of leaving NATO at the existence of an independent Kurdistan
-the problem is some of the major cities. Baghdad, Kirkuk and Mosul are notoriously religiously and ethnically mixed. The last two also have the trait of being near to lots of that oil IIRC.

Turkey's fighter jets will be expensive doorstops once the West cuts off the supply of spare parts.

 

[kernals12]

The Kurds are a force to be reckoned with. They basically defeated ISIS with a little bit of foreign air support after the Iraqi Army ran away with their tails tucked between their legs. They'd probably have foreign support from Greece, which just hates Turkey and does whatever makes them angry, and Israel, which would like to cultivate a non-Arab ally in the Middle East.

 

[Pelranius]

The coalition would not create an independent Kurdistan just to let it be taken over by Turkey.

Ankara would be propping up the Barzanis against the PKK, and your average guy on the streets who wants the corruption to stop.

 

[walmart]

Turkey is used to losing large chunks of land.

Last time that happen was a 100 years ago and as a result of World War.

Turkey's fighter jets will be expensive doorstops once the West cuts off the supply of spare parts.

Why didn't they in otl when Turkey and Major NATO members opposed Kurdish independence in 2017 and what strategic interest does the west in an independent Kurdistan and making Turkey an enemy. also Kurdistan being landlocked is going be destroyed by it's neighbors cutting off access.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Iraqi_Kurdistan_independence_referendum#Other_states

They basically defeated ISIS with a little bit of foreign air support

Bulk of fighting was done by the Iraqi army
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_Civil_War_(2014–2017)

the Iraqi Army ran away with their tails tucked between their legs

Kurds did the same when confronted by the Iraqi Army in 2017.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Iraqi–Kurdish_conflict

They'd probably have foreign support from Greece, which just hates Turkey and does whatever makes them angry, and Israel, which would like to cultivate a non-Arab ally in the Middle East.

Are they going airlift all the necessary supplies over hundreds of mile hostile terrain and possibly trigger a regional war with Turkey ?

 

[Omar04]

Shia Iraq would be even more under Iranian influence then IOTL.

 

[walmart]

Partition of Iraq doesn't any support among Non-Kurdish population and makes US occupation and international reputation far worse. Alongside this you are turning internal problems into international ones and pushing Shia Arabs further into Iranian Sphere and increasing Sunni Arab disillusion.

 

[kernals12]

If Iraq had to partitioned we should at least do a better job at it, the Yezidi Kurdish majority areas have ended up in Sunni “Iraq, so have the Assyrian triangle, and several Kurdish areas. Some Shia and Sunni areas have also ended up in the wrong country.

If the Shia populations in the Sunni areas (and vice versa) are small enough, it probably won't be too big of an issue.