WI: Henry I of Navarre's son doesn't fall off the castle at Estella, no French personal union

I've been interested in Navarre's history for a while now (PS, if anyone has any book recommendations about Basque history feel free to tell me) looking for ways for them to survive for a lot longer, or even until modern day if that's possible.
One way I've found is making it so Henry I's eldest son, Theobald III, doesn't fall of a battlement at the castle at Estella. This leads to Theobold III ascending to the thrown instead of his sister, Joan, when Henry suffocates on his own fat, so Joan never marries Phillip IV, so Navarre never enters a personal union with France.

Theobald III was scheduled to be married to King Alfonso X's daughter, Violant (Who was seven by the way) in exchange for an alliance with Castile. Would this alliance last long? Or would Navarre just be absorbed into Castile in this timeline.
 
I've been interested in Navarre's history for a while now (PS, if anyone has any book recommendations about Basque history feel free to tell me) looking for ways for them to survive for a lot longer, or even until modern day if that's possible.
One way I've found is making it so Henry I's eldest son, Theobald III, doesn't fall of a battlement at the castle at Estella. This leads to Theobold III ascending to the thrown instead of his sister, Joan, when Henry suffocates on his own fat, so Joan never marries Phillip IV, so Navarre never enters a personal union with France.

Theobald III was scheduled to be married to King Alfonso X's daughter, Violant (Who was seven by the way) in exchange for an alliance with Castile. Would this alliance last long? Or would Navarre just be absorbed into Castile in this timeline.
Joan can marry Alfonso Dela Cerda instead in this scenario, splitting Leon in the process.
 
Theobald III was scheduled to be married to King Alfonso X's daughter, Violant (Who was seven by the way) in exchange for an alliance with Castile. Would this alliance last long? Or would Navarre just be absorbed into Castile in this timeline.
Why would Navarre be absorbed into Castile?If Thibaud and Violante marry (my guess would be circa 1383) then based on the children of Thibaud's OTL half-brothers on both sides there should be at least one son to survive infancy
 

Ramontxo

Donor
This is the time of the wars of Oñacinos (pro Castilian King) and the Gamboins (pro Navarre King). Bizkaia is the first territory to scape from the Navarre King in 1179 becoming an self governing territory under the Castilian King. Araba was invaded in the 1200 and after 132 years it became also Castilian. Gipuzkoa was under a civil war for two hundred years. And of course this is the time of the Nafarroan Agramont versus Beaumont war. Obviously if you prevent the last war you are going a long way to keep the Navarre Kingdom in being. If that is enough is another cuestion...

Link about the Oñacinos against Gamboins war (in Spanish) https://www.kondaira.net/ares/Artikulu0001.html

And a link for a Basque tematic dictionary https://www.kondaira.net/hiztegia/
 
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