WI: Gustavus Adolphus wasn't killed at Lützen

[GameBawesome]

Gustavus Adolphus, King of Sweden, is one of those rare figures in history, that seem almost legendary. He was the King of Sweden from 1611 to 1632, and was seen as one of the greatest military commanders in modern history and a seen as "The Father of Modern Warfare" due to him pioneering military tactics and weaponry, that would go on to influence Early Modern Warfare, and also implemented some political reforms in Sweden. He fought with his neighbors in all directions from Denmark-Norway to Russia to Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, and as devout Lutheran, he got Sweden into the Thirty-Years War on the side of the Protestants against the Catholic League in the HRE, with his crowning achievement being the Battle of Breitenfeld. However, Gustavus Adolphus would be killed at the Battle of Lützen. His daughter Christiana would succeed him, only to be deposed in 1650 (Due to her converting to Catholicism and refusing to marry), spelling end for the House of Vasa.

What if Gustavus Adolphus wasn't killed at Lützen? How would his survival effect the course of the Thirty-Years War in future? How would his survival effect his succession and the rest of his reign? What could become of the Swedish Empire?

 

[Lalli]

Not sure how his survival would affect to Thirty Years War. But for Sweden there would be some intresting consueqences. Gustavus Adolphus worked lot of for developing administrative system. It would develope futher. Sweden would still become tightly Lutheran nation. He could too live yet 20 - 30 years which would has lot of changes for Swedish Empire. Not sure if he yet would try wars with Russia and Denmark. But it is pretty possible. GA too could groom his daughter better ruler for future and perhaps even avoid her convertion to Catholism. But if the king gets yet son, he of course would succeed his father and Christina would be married away probably to someone Protestant German ruler.

 

[Walter Rodney Kinghorn]

If he lives another ~30 years or so, Sweden will be able to tip the scales in Europe in favour of France and its ambitions. No doubt Britain, if they have not being ruined by an ATL Civil War, would try and bargain with Sweden.

Swedish America might be a bigger thing and might be more successful than New Netherland.

 

[Lalli]

If he lives another ~30 years or so, Sweden will be able to tip the scales in Europe in favour of France and its ambitions. No doubt Britain, if they have not being ruined by an ATL Civil War, would try and bargain with Sweden.

Swedish America might be a bigger thing and might be more successful than New Netherland.

Colonial Sweden would be bit hard to maintain unless Sweden can't put Denmark-Norway down or at least make that friendly enough so it can't blockade harbors and sea routes of mainland Sweden.

 

[Walter Rodney Kinghorn]

Colonial Sweden would be bit hard to maintain unless Sweden can't put Denmark-Norway down or at least make that friendly enough so it can't blockade harbors and sea routes of mainland Sweden.

True. Denmark-Norway could acquiesce should Adolphus bring a swift end to the ATL Thirty Years War, but I wouldn't be surprised if Denmark-Norway holds some hostility and triggers yet another war against Sweden or agrees to peace only if they join the colonial race as well.

 

[Atterdag]

I don’t think we should overstate how important the death of G2A was. His most important work has already been done, and it wasn’t like the Swedish war effort slowed down noticeably without him - Sweden had no shortage of military talent, Lennart Torstensson comes to mind.

As for the succession, if G2A stays on the continent he’s not at home getting a new heir. Christina likely inherits anyway when he dies, and her education isn’t changed that much given that it was the king who wanted her raised as a boy anyways. The major difference is probably that she isn’t separated from her mother, which hardly does much for her view of her own kingdom.

 

[Comte de Geneve]

If GA survives Luetzen and continues the campaigns in Germany he is most likely either killed in another battle or dies from disease. Perhaps if GA lives longer then Ferdy is less likely to pull the trigger on Wallenstein when he did. But long term I see little impact on either the war of the future of Sweden unless by some miracle he survives in reasonable health until some settlement (probably not OTL Westphalia) is reached and returns to his homeland to rule. If this happens the European and Swedish butterflies are mutated giants.

 

[Lalli]

As for the succession, if G2A stays on the continent he’s not at home getting a new heir. Christina likely inherits anyway when he dies, and her education isn’t changed that much given that it was the king who wanted her raised as a boy anyways. The major difference is probably that she isn’t separated from her mother, which hardly does much for her view of her own kingdom.

Unless GA manage on some reason return to Stockholm. Then there is some chances that the king and his wife Maria Eleonora of Brandenburg have yet another child. But I am not sure since Christina was already six years old so not so sure if her would has little brother ITTL. And in other hand GA liked to go to battles without any worry about his own safety.

But yeah, surviving GA would has some affect to Christina.

 

[alexmilman]

IIRC, by the time of Lutzen his popularity among the German rulers was seriously diminishing. With him still around so is probably Wallenstein and it is hard to expect the easy successes.

 

[von Adler]

I think you guys are overstating the importance of Gustav II Adolf a bit - remember that the Swedish state apparatus and the army and the war continued on just fine without him. And while he was an able commander and reformer, he left a cadre of very skilled commanders to take over after him.

In fact, I think that was his best talent (which seems like all great leaders have) - to find and foster talent, especially in areas that are not their own specific strengths, let it rise and thrive and not be threatened by it.

The indications were that G2A had plans to split the Empire in two - a catholic part and a protestant part, with himself as protestant Emperor of that part. This would include Denmark north of the Sound (ie Scania, Blekinge and Halland) which would be annexed to Sweden (as it was in 1658 OTL).

Now, if his cavalry charge with the Smålander cavalry is a resounding success and Lützen turns out into more of a Swedish victory rather than a bloody draw with Sweden as a tactical winner in posession of the field and he manages to avoid the disaster at Nördlingen 1634 and even defeats the Spanish veterans there, the war might be over by 1636 with him achieving his goals, after which a showdown with Denmark (akin to 1644) is on the schedule.

He could have a son, or he could take an active role in raising his daughter. His queen loved him dearly and while the royal couple suffered some miscarriages, it is possible that they could have more children.

He did not lead a healthy lifestyle though, and I'd expect him to die at around 55-60. His father turned 61, his mother 52, his cousin 65, his uncle 54 and his grandfather 64.

That puts his death at 1645-50.

When it comes to colonial ventures, they will never really last - the Dutch and the English both have much stronger positions and much stronger fleets. In any kind of conflicts, they will destroy any Swedish colonies, just as the Dutch did OTL. Besides, Sweden was focused on building an Empire around the Baltic and gaining access to the tolls on the rivers emptying into it, which was far more profitable in the short run that any colonies, since Spain, the Netherlands, France and England had already gobbled up the sugar islands.