WI: Germany wins Spanish-American War

Pacific Theater

April:
Spanish Admiral Montojo decides to keep his fleet in range of coastal artillery, despite the risk to civilians. Further preparations include a more correct placement of naval mines

May 1st:
00:17 a.m.
The US Fleet, lead by Dewey's flagship, the protected cruiser USS Olympia, begins entering Manila Bay. The Olympia hits two mines (1), blowing her up with all hands. Among the dead is Dewey himself.

05:15 a.m.
First shots by the Spanish are fired, but fall short due to range.

05:41 a.m.
US ships are ordered to close in and engage

05:59 a.m.
Protected cruiser USS Baltimore suffers an unlucky magazine detonation after being penetrated by a shell fired by Spanish coastal artillery and sinks with heavy loss of life

06:30 a.m.
Gunboat USS Petrel receives several hits and is forced to retire

06:49 a.m.
Remaining US ships withdraw from the fight, establish blockade of Manila Bay

(2)
12th June
German Pacific Squadron under Admiral Dietrichs arrives at Manila, and starts acting provocatively – cutting in front of American ships, refusing to salute the United States flag (according to customs of naval courtesy), taking soundings of the harbor, and landing supplies for the besieged Spanish.(3)

13th June
Incident occurs that results in shoot-out between the German and American squadrons. Spanish ships sally out of their harbor and join the fight. The US squadron, being heavily outnumbered, is soundly defeated.


Europe
mid-June
German government learns of the Manila incident. Having already attempted to form a European-wide coalition to try and make America back down diplomatically, and having already made several plans for war against the United States, Germany renews its negotiations with Spain.

late June
German-Spanish negotiations a succes. Germany to issue ultimatum to the US, and then join the war once they refuse. Germany to gain possession of all Spanish holdings in the Pacific, Guantanamo Bay in Cuba for use as a naval base and economic privileges in the Spanish Caribbean. Spain to support Germany's claim to ownership over all US minor islands in the Pacific and protectorate over Hawaii and restoration of its monarchy.

June 30th
President McKinley rejects German ultimatum. German Fleet begins sailing for Spain.

Caribbean Theater
July 2nd
Spanish Squadron in Santiago de Cuba stays in port, hoping reinforcements arrive before the city inevitably falls

July 17th
Combined German-Spanish squadron arrives off Santiago de Cuba, and engages the US Fleet. US Fleet soundly defeated, with all five battleships sunk

July 18th
German transport ships unload reinforcements in Santiago harbor.

July 21st
Combined German-Spanish force engages their American besiegers. Suffering from an outbreak of yellow fever and other diseases, and outnumbered nearly 3-1, US and Cuban rebel forces are easily defeated.

(1) - OTL the mines somehow failed to do damage
(2) - at this point I figure "ok, mission accomplished, Manila is safe; lets see what can be done in the Caribbean". Then I noticed the US outnumbered Spain 5:1 in battleships. "Fuck, this is going nowhere. Maybe if I bring in the Germans?" and promptly redesigned the thread
(3) - happened OTL


So, does the US throw in the towel at this point, seeing as how they have no navy left? Or do they stubbornly refuse to quit? Can Germany get Hawaii (was not annexed OTL until June 15th, when victory in the Pacific was already clear, perhaps delayed here) for their trouble?
 
At this point in time while the Germans can make trouble in the PI, they can't do much in Cuba/Puerto Rico. The German fleet is small, and is not designed to operate at such distance from a home base. The Spanish fleet is very second rate. The USA may be perfectly happy to let the Germans take the PI if the US Asiatic fleet is defeated, but expansion in the Caribbean, not happening. The defeat off Cuba you describe is ASB.
 
And the British Empire ?
Presumably on a coke and hooker binge, celebrating that Germany just made an enemy out of the US.

At this point in time while the Germans can make trouble in the PI, they can't do much in Cuba/Puerto Rico. The German fleet is small, and is not designed to operate at such distance from a home base. The Spanish fleet is very second rate. The USA may be perfectly happy to let the Germans take the PI if the US Asiatic fleet is defeated, but expansion in the Caribbean, not happening. The defeat off Cuba you describe is ASB.
I count at least 6 German and one Spanish battleship, along many cruisers. The Americans had just 5 BBs


This is going to be a long war. United Fruit is not going to roll over & let Europeans horn in on its turf.
But without a navy?
 
This is going to be a long war. United Fruit is not going to roll over & let Europeans horn in on its turf.

Considering the frenzy the Hearst (and other) papers whipped up after the USS Maine blew up, they go full tilt after a defeat- even a single ship sunk by the Germans who will get yellow fever pretty quick as well.
 
Presumably on a coke and hooker binge, celebrating that Germany just made an enemy out of the US.


I count at least 6 German and one Spanish battleship, along many cruisers. The Americans had just 5 BBs



But without a navy?

Leaving aside all the details of what advantages lay where, and the shaky assumption the USB automatically loses the initial battles;. There's going to be a bigger & meaner navy under construction.

The Germans had better get their heads around the long haul cause they are going there.
 
What's Germany's end goal here?

Protect their expansion and investments in the western hemisphere markets. There has been a long running trade war over Latin America. For 5+ centuries. United Fruit gained the advantage cause it could call on the US Marines to instal friendly governments who pay US based debt first.

If Germany can shut out the USN & base a fleet in the region it can dominate the local governments & ensure its business is paid first, last, and always.
 

Faeelin

Banned
I think they mentioned german goals at the beginning

I'm just trying to wrap my head around it. Here's what's proposed:

German-Spanish negotiations a succes. Germany to issue ultimatum to the US, and then join the war once they refuse. Germany to gain possession of all Spanish holdings in the Pacific, Guantanamo Bay in Cuba for use as a naval base and economic privileges in the Spanish Caribbean. Spain to support Germany's claim to ownership over all US minor islands in the Pacific and protectorate over Hawaii and restoration of its monarchy.

Did Spain ever consider ceding the Philippines to Germany in OTL? If not, isn't this ASB? "We'd rather give them to the Kaiser under threat of force than to America under threat of force!" If Spain did consider this, then okay.

Does Germany help Spain crush the Cuban revolutionaries?
 
Protect their expansion and investments in the western hemisphere markets. There has been a long running trade war over Latin America. For 5+ centuries. United Fruit gained the advantage cause it could call on the US Marines to instal friendly governments who pay US based debt first.

If Germany can shut out the USN & base a fleet in the region it can dominate the local governments & ensure its business is paid first, last, and always.

That's a long term impossibility.
 
that is a pretty tough logistics challenge.. To supply the Caribbean German and Spanish shipping come pretty close to the American base at Charleston, while Norfolk isn't all that much further north. The Americans can convert a pretty fair number of steamships into auxiliary cruisers, which means that the German/Spanish will have to go to convoys pretty quick, which strains their warship numbers. So to keep the German/Spanish bases supplied with coal, parts, ammunition etc those sea lanes are within reach of American raiders who are comfortably close in terms of steaming time and range from American bases while the Europeans are at the end of a voyage (and hence lower on coal) by the time they reach the Caribbean.

The Pacific is unkind to both sides, but the US West Coast is a bit closer in terms of steaming time than Europe, even with the Suez Canal. Either way its a tough logistical challenge to get coal to the forward bases

On the plus side, it will be a lot easier for the US to take the German and Spanish islands in Oceania than it will be in 1943-44!
 
how much trade did America did by ship since they are now targets of german/Spanish warships

A lot and a lot of it went on German hulls but an even bigger chunk went on British hulls and the Germans are not going to be looking to mess with them and since there is little to no chance of even Germany and Spain combined establishing an effective blockade of the USA most American trade will in effect be untouchable. Something like only 9.1% of US imports and exports (by dollar value) went on American hulls in 1898.
 
What's Germany's end goal here?
I think the German government got blindsided by the rash actions of some gloryhound navy comanders in Manilla and has to go all in to save face. The German Navy had the choice of either crawling back, appologizing to the emperor and risk virtual dismantlement to the size of a coast guard or it could go all in and if the campaign proves successful become the dominant player in an increasing militaristic Germany. For now their greatest challenge is to keep the ball rolling and feeding the German public with ever increasing success stories. For if they get clobbered or even just bogged down in a guerilla or trench war, the German public and eventually the German ruling aristocracy will eventually call them back and call them to answer.
 
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