WI - Germany eschews naval expansion 1870 onwards?

[Admiral Beez]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Naval_Laws

In 1898, the German Naval Law called for the following total warships to be attained by 1903:

19 battleships (12 existing; 7 additional vessels to be built),
8 coastal ironclads (8 existing),
12 large cruisers (10 existing, 2 additional vessels to be built),
30 light cruisers (23 existing, 7 additional vessels to be built).

What if instead, Germany chose to follow a more Scandinavian naval policy, such as Sweden's, based on coastal defence only. How does this affect the Balance of Power and related global and regional politics of the time?

Would Russia see this as an opportunity to become the strongest naval force in the Baltic Sea?

 

[NoMommsen]

First thought that comes to my mind :
What gargantuan POD would it need to cure Wilhelm II of his Big Bad Battleship mania ?

Second thought :
That's exactly what Caprivi wanted, during his reign as Chief of the Imperial Navy. ... and the reason he was given the boot by young Willy II.

Third thought :
Why wanted Caprivi 'just' a coastal defense Navy ? ... to shift the money freed that way over to the army. He was perhaps one of the prussian generals - and even though a capable administrator of the navy, stayed to be an army general by his very heart - most hunted by the nightmare of a russian invasion (for whatever reason).

So, what would happen ? All the money spend on capital ships would go into the army. Germany would become even more 'militaristic' as it was OTL. With an army much more capable and numerous in 1910/12 than 1914 ... (or even earlier ?)

And Russia becomming the Big Bad boy of the Baltic Sea ... dunno, there would be some additions even on coastal defenses, and I don't know how the pre-dreadnoughts would cope against being shelled by superheavy monitors and coastal defense guns from 13.5" upwards.

 

[Dalekiller]

Fredrich III, I could see going for this policy, but once the colonials get worked up the people of Germany going for the navy.

 

[Admiral Beez]

First thought that comes to my mind :
What gargantuan POD would it need to cure Wilhelm II of his Big Bad Battleship mania ?

I wish I had one in mind. However most ATL Hist seem to focus on ripping apart the POD, so perhaps I'll leave it it others.

 

[glpoisson]

POD could be Kaiser Wilhelm II never reading Mahan's book or von Tirpitz, and his ability to get what the Kaiser wanted pushed through the Reichstag, having other interests or not being born at all.

 

[NoMommsen]

I wish I had one in mind. However most ATL Hist seem to focus on ripping apart the POD, so perhaps I'll leave it it others.

... that's why I kept on with further thoughts

How about that ? :
Without such a big navy, only some armored cruisers perhaps, and less pushing for colonies, but with a BIG army, germany could become a much more ... interseting partner for Britain ? more synergies ?

Could that butterfly the "Entente cordial" away ?

As well as the Anglo-russian accord 1907 ? Why bothering with ending the Big Game, if you have germanic hordes, armed to the brim just waiting on the polish and prussian borders to let them loose to "free" the suppressed peoples - Lithunians, Latvians, Finns, Ukraines, etc. - under the boot of the russian bear ?

 

[Riain]

I personally don't think its all about the Kaiser, but it is definitely about German domestic politics. The Army was dominated by the Prussian Junkers and other nobles and they weren't eager to dilute their influence by expanding the army and bringing in a bunch of middle class officers, so the Army had a manpower cap until 1913 when it expanded by 135,000. The Reichstag was happy to go along with this to keep a check on the power of the Prussian Junkers, however Germany was still a booming country with lots of cash, so while kept small by politics the German Army did spend a lot of money and so had the best artillery in 1914.

In contrast the Navy was seen as more of a Federal institution and one fully open to the Middle Class, so the Reichstag was happy to support it. As mentioned the Kaiser also liked the navy and Germany was a booming country with lots of cash, so when combined with the limitations on the army the result is a big navy.

Other countries probably would have also liked to have a big navy in the same period, but lacked the cash and were forced to have a huge army.

 

[NoMommsen]

I personally don't think its all about the Kaiser, but it is definitely about German domestic politics.

I agree with you, but the Kaiser was a BIG factor influencing the politics of the empires goverment.
A goverment, backed by a supporting Kaiser that focus much more on army would IMO find ways not only to increase quality as OTL but also earlier expansion, maybe on a smaller scale but for more years, something like the Naval Laws : 25 - 35.000 new soldiers every year or so (just to name a number).

The Army was dominated by the Prussian Junkers and other nobles and they weren't eager to dilute their influence by expanding the army and bringing in a bunch of middle class officers, so the Army had a manpower cap until 1913 when it expanded by 135,000.

Maybe a bit ... pointy (?) counterquestion : where did the junkers get all the officers from for this expansion ? ... 'special prussian fertility voodoo' ?

But seriously, what made them 'accept' this growth could also work earlier.

 

[Riain]

I agree with you, but the Kaiser was a BIG factor influencing the politics of the empires goverment.
A goverment, backed by a supporting Kaiser that focus much more on army would IMO find ways not only to increase quality as OTL but also earlier expansion, maybe on a smaller scale but for more years, something like the Naval Laws : 25 - 35.000 new soldiers every year or so (just to name a number).

Maybe a bit ... pointy (?) counterquestion : where did the junkers get all the officers from for this expansion ? ... 'special prussian fertility voodoo' ?

But seriously, what made them 'accept' this growth could also work earlier.

The French went from 2 to 3 year conscription term from 1913 and the Russians were becoming more powerful at the same time, their plan 19 of 1912 was more offensive in nature than plan 18 of 1910. I think that by late 1912 it became obvious to everybody that the Army needed to expand, the Junkers just had to suck it up and accept middle class officers as part of this expansion.

That said I think the 135,000 was a compromise, 300,000 was put out there which would really blow the budget and dilute the nobles in the officer corps.

 

[historyfool]

Maybe a bit ... pointy (?) counterquestion : where did the junkers get all the officers from for this expansion ? ... 'special prussian fertility voodoo' ?

But seriously, what made them 'accept' this growth could also work earlier.

What made it necessary was that France and Russia 1904-1913 had expanded their armies by more than half a million, Germany and Austria together had expanded their armies by 80 000 1904-1913.

It is often overlooked that almost every major armament program of Imperial Germany had a basically defensive background, even if that was badly communicated. Even the naval race had that intention at its core, although it relied on faulty preconceptions.

 

[NHBL]

Navy is needed

In that time period, a navy is NEEDED, or you simply are not a great power. I would suggest that, rather than eschewing a navy entirely, you have Germany build in moderation. France and Russia are serious threats, so you need to be well able to tangle with their fleets, keeping them from being a threat to Germany.

Now we have a fleet that's reasonable for the time--perhaps 1 1/2 times the fleet of Russia or France--whichever one is larger. With the Kiel Canal, Germany can slip from one theater to the other. Then build some commerce protection ships as well.

Now we just need a leadership that would go that route--which means that something is needed to keep Krupp busy...

 

[LordKalvert]

You would really have to change the rather arrogant attitude of the British in the 1890's. The fleet wasn't just built on a whim but after a series of incidents where the Kaiser felt aggrieved by Roseberry and Salisbury.

These would include the failure to aid Italy during the first Italo-Ethiopian War,the Armenian affair, the failure to renew the Mediterranean accords with Austria, the Jameson raid, Samoa and double dealing during the Triple Intervention. Failure to aid Spain during the Cuban crises didn't help

I mention the above because the reasons for Germany not building a fleet will tell us the implication. For the Franco-Russian alliance this is a big boon. They will be able to concentrate their fleets without too much to worry. Japan would be an obvious loser. The Russians wouldn't need much to command the Baltic vs. Germany. They might get a little worried about the British but not much. After all, a naval blockade would be useless unless the land border is closed-

Now if the Germans are on (somehow) better relations with the British, this might give the Russians pause. In that case, they would be arming their army at the expense of the Russian Navy. In this, Russia probably comes out ahead as they usually spent more on their navy than Germany did.

This is one of those PODs that have lots of possibilities but how you bring it about is going to be very important

 

[Admiral Beez]

In that time period, a navy is NEEDED, or you simply are not a great power.

The post-Japanese War Russian navy was rather small and mostly obsolete, and it was a great power.

And for much of the OP's period from 1870 onwards the Russian Navy was a tiny rump of a force.

 

[riggerrob]

German merchant fleet?

How big a merchant fleet did the German Navy need to protect?
How many colonies did Germany trade with (Cameroon, Namibia, Tanganika, Togo)?
How much did German ships trade with other overseas nations (e.g. phosphates from islands off the coast of South America)?
How much did German industry depend upon shipping?

 

[Zheng He]

Just have Willy get involved in a boating accident when he is a kid and have that make him terrified of even going near the water for the rest of his life. There's your POD...

 

[rast]

Wilhelm II shouldn't be the problem. He didn't want the battle fleet Tirpitz was building. Without Tirpitz, he would have gone for a prestigious cruiser fleet, something nice and glorious, if even impractical.

 

[LordKalvert]

The post-Japanese War Russian navy was rather small and mostly obsolete, and it was a great power.

And for much of the OP's period from 1870 onwards the Russian Navy was a tiny rump of a force.

But not for long. By 1914 the Russians had 11 capital ships on the blocks and were outspending the Germans on their navy. The ship designs were first class and not just the big ships. The Russians had learned many many lessons

A country like Germany or Russia could be a great power without a navy but not a world power. Without naval power, Germany couldn't have a say in events in the Pacific, Africa or the Americas

 

[Viriato]

How big a merchant fleet did the German Navy need to protect?
How many colonies did Germany trade with (Cameroon, Namibia, Tanganika, Togo)?
How much did German ships trade with other overseas nations (e.g. phosphates from islands off the coast of South America)?
How much did German industry depend upon shipping?

Germany did have the world's second largest merchant marine in 1914, total 5,135,000 tons, or about (11.3% of the world's shipping), but it was behind Britain's 19,524,000 tons (43% of the world's shipping). It was still larger than the U.S. at 2,027,000 tons, Norway at 1,957,000 tons or France at 1,922,000 tons.

German trade with its colonies was tiny, totaling just over 0.3% of all German foreign trade by 1913. Most of Germany's foreign trade was with Europe, particularly its neighbours.

GERMAN TRADE in Marks (1913)
Total German Trade 23,090,700
USA 2,424,700,000
UK 2,314,300,000
Russia 2,304,600,000
Austria-Hungary 1,932,100,000
France 1,374,100,000
Netherlands 1,026,500,000
Belgium 895,600,00
Argentina 760,400,000
Italy 711,200,000
British India 692,500,000
Brazil 447,700,000


Countries Importing goods from Germany with share of imports and ranking in 1913
Russia 64% (#1)
Finland 44% (#1)
Austria-Hungary 40% (#1)
Denmark 38% (#1)
Sweden 35% (#1)
Switzerland 34% (#1)
Bolivia 33% (#1)
Norway 30% (#1)
Romania 30% (#1)
Netherlands 27% (#1)
Chile 25% (#2)
Bulgaria 22% (#2)
Argentina 17%(#2)
Brazil 17% (#2)
Italy 17% (#1)
Uruguay 17% (#2)
Portugal 16% (#2)
United States 15% (#1)
France 13% (#2)
Mexico 13% (#2)
Belgium 12% (#2)
United Kingdom 10% (#2)
United States 10% (#2)

 

[Yanez de Gomera]

Germany did have the world's second largest merchant marine in 1914, total 5,135,000 tons, or about (11.3% of the world's shipping), but it was behind Britain's 19,524,000 tons (43% of the world's shipping). It was still larger than the U.S. at 2,027,000 tons, Norway at 1,957,000 tons or France at 1,922,000 tons.

German trade with its colonies was tiny, totaling just over 0.3% of all German foreign trade by 1913. Most of Germany's foreign trade was with Europe, particularly its neighbours. (snip)

Very interesting numbers, thanks! How much of the German merchant marine was coastal/baltic and how much was ocean going, for trading with USA/Argentina/Brasil and India? It is interesting that China is not on the list, despite Germany having a small concession there.

Germany must have a powerful fleet, what she should avoid doing is entering in a domed arms race with the UK. Germany is a land power and must firstly compete with riva land powers, ie Russia and France.
I propose a fleet stronger than the strongest between France or Russia, with a focus on coastal protection and commerce protaction/raiding. So Coastal battleships (ora small fleet of powerful battleship to act as a fleet in being), Long range light cruisers, plenty of destroyers, MTB and minelayers/minesweepers for the Baltic and North Sea coast. As soon as possible, submarines.

 

[Saphroneth]

I think it's entirely possible for a German fleet to result which doesn't scare the British into a bilateral naval race - trying to overcome the RN was afterall deliberate (if secret) policy for Tirpitz, so a less extreme fleet would be possible. The Naval Laws really mess with this as they were designed to make a fleet which could only ratchet upwards, but butterflying away those would mean a fleet which grew in surges and halts - and probably slower, since during the "surges" the expansion rate would match OTL's continuous.