On April 19th, 1995 ETA attempted to kill José María Aznar, then president of the PP and to be the president of Spain in 1996.
What if ETA had managed to kill him?
What if ETA had managed to kill him?
WI ETA kills José María Aznar in 1995?
- Thread starter Kurt_Steiner
- Start date
Spain is a Kingdom, Aznar became Prime Minister.
If ETA kills him in 1995, then Francisco Álvarez Cascos becomes the new leader of Partido Popular and probably gets elected as Prime Minister in 1996 since Partido Popular would get a lot of sympathy votes.
Spanish government would crack down hard on ETA, starting right afte the assassination in 1995 already under Prime Minister Felipe González, and obviously continuing under Francisco Álvarez Cascos or whoever the Prime Minister for Partido Popular would be. Batasuna would never be allowed to be founded in 2001, as the government would continue to firmly oppose anything even remotely connected to ETA.
If ETA kills him in 1995, then Francisco Álvarez Cascos becomes the new leader of Partido Popular and probably gets elected as Prime Minister in 1996 since Partido Popular would get a lot of sympathy votes.
Spanish government would crack down hard on ETA, starting right afte the assassination in 1995 already under Prime Minister Felipe González, and obviously continuing under Francisco Álvarez Cascos or whoever the Prime Minister for Partido Popular would be. Batasuna would never be allowed to be founded in 2001, as the government would continue to firmly oppose anything even remotely connected to ETA.
Argh... One of those silly moments that I have from time to time... indeed, it's prime minister.
Álvarez Cascos, indeed...
I agree with you. Had ETA been successful in his attempt, it would have meant its ending, sooner than IOTL.
Álvarez Cascos, indeed...
I agree with you. Had ETA been successful in his attempt, it would have meant its ending, sooner than IOTL.
It would have ushered in a decade or more of PPwank, accompanied by a big anti ETA backlash. It would have been interesting to think about the impact on other regionalist/separatist groups in Spain.
Look at the impact the murder of local PP councilor https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miguel_Ángel_Blanco had on Spanish politics and times it by a thousand.
Look at the impact the murder of local PP councilor https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miguel_Ángel_Blanco had on Spanish politics and times it by a thousand.
Indeed. We Catalans may got rid of having Aznar utterley ashaming us when he tried to speak Catalan in small circles but I doubt that this would compensate for the decades of PPwankism and/or "El Ausente Part Deux" that would follow.
Perhaps without Aznar the PP would go back to the days of Fraga and the hardliners would take control of the party.
Having the murder of Miguel Angel Blanco so close in time with the failed attack... IwWonder wether ETA wanted to help Aznar to win the elections or what...
Perhaps without Aznar the PP would go back to the days of Fraga and the hardliners would take control of the party.
Having the murder of Miguel Angel Blanco so close in time with the failed attack... IwWonder wether ETA wanted to help Aznar to win the elections or what...
If the French have their premiers, I don't see why the Spanish can't have their Presidents of the government.
I remember Goldstein mentioning that even with sympathy votes, without Aznar it's possible the PSOE dominant party system lasts a lot longer, maybe even until the economic crisis.
Dr. Strangelove
Banned
This would have some side effects down the road because without Aznar's structural reforms it is doubtful Spain's economy could have made it to the Euro.
Goldstein
Banned
Yeah. At the very least, four more years of PSOE. I don't personally think sympathy votes would be enough of a factor. Aznar wasn't just the PP candidate of the time. He single-handedly turned it into a serious contender, displacing the role of the CDS and presenting it as a modern center-right party that had left behind its pretensions of just representing the sociological Francoism. The PP is entirely Aznar's creature. Without Aznar, every other candidate it's going to have less appeal, especially Cascos. Chances of inner fighting increase. Even with him IOTL, his 1996 victory was bitter, as he didn't get a majority and stayed at a very short distance of the PSOE, and needed of CiU and PNV's support.
Without him, I see 1996 as a continuation of 1993, with the PSOE winning by a short margin and Murcia and Valencia already in the PP's hands, but with more opportunity for that to change (I don't know about Valencia, but in Murcia the PSOE was still a contender IOTL until Ramón Ortiz left, leaving a residual party plagued by infighting and poor regional leadership). The economic inertia of the time suggests the late 90's would still be times of economic recovery... maybe, if privatization of deficitary state companies doesn't go as IOTL, a lesser recovery, but probably steadier if the real estate bubble is butterflied.
What I mean is, if the PSOE, though battered, wins in '96, it has a decent chance of winning in 2000 as well. And after that... well, I'm not really optimistic about the PP or IU's chances. We enter untested waters (who knows if the PSOE could split), but what I see is a Spanish PRI, and González winning at least until the next crisis hits... against who? Impossible to know, the scenario would be politically unrecognizable. But González could well become the longest ruling national leader of a democracy. Maybe even still incumbent after 34 years.
Ramontxo
Donor
Sadly* i very much doubt this. If Greece was accepted any one would be (by "creative" accounts management)
*Losing control of monetary policies, not being able to emit bonds on own currency etc ...
Dr. Strangelove
Banned
Who's to say they wouldn't accept us with cooked books as well, with hilarious consequences when 2008 hit?
*Hordes of british time travelers start changing their time machine settings from Berlin 1933 to Madrid 1995*
Goldstein
Banned
Yikes!
That's a scaring thought...
Yeah. The awkward thing being that, even though the PP has become incredibly tainted with corruption and caciquismo, even though Aznar's narcissism pushed us towards painful ways, its irruption as a party that rules from time to time could have actually been what saved us from the very same, but in the form of a dominant party, and in the end resulted in the quite balanced, if unoperational, parliament we have now. I might be wrong, of course, but think who could have faced a PSOE that was capable to survive the shitstorm of the mid 90's if the PP is not a viable option of government.
I'm under a writers' block of sorts because of a minor thing that still is my priority, but someday I might post a vignette with this premise in mind. It was one of my first fleshed out what ifs back in the day, though it has changed in nature.
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Spain as the cortijo of the PSOE of the late 1980s, early 1990s for 30 or 40 years sounds like a real nightmare.
Goldstein
Banned
Say what you want about the OTL political landscape, at least it's exciting in many ways, and people are more involved in politics than ever. A dominant PSOE of the old guard would be a gloomy atmosphere, probably dominated by political cynicism, with much lower voter turnouts, and probably with more authoritarian tones. I even presume ETA would still be active and enjoying a certain level of support in the Basque Country. Not pretty for our standards. The only *""positive"" aspect I can think of is that maybe Catalonia would be as politically emasculated as the rest of the country, and that would mean no frictions of the size of the Procés.
Dr. Strangelove
Banned
An even creepier possibility would be people like Alvarez Cascos and Mayor Oreja taking over the PP and turning it more and more to the right, making them unelectable and more radicalized.
Alternatively, let's say that by the end of the 2000's the PP has enough and elects liberal, dynamic and likeable Madrid mayor Esperanza Aguirre (her constant gaffes make her so clumsy and relatable!) who then decides to enact La Pinza and join forces for change with the new young, dynamic and ponytailed IU General Secretary.
Alternatively, let's say that by the end of the 2000's the PP has enough and elects liberal, dynamic and likeable Madrid mayor Esperanza Aguirre (her constant gaffes make her so clumsy and relatable!) who then decides to enact La Pinza and join forces for change with the new young, dynamic and ponytailed IU General Secretary.
That's true, but, bearing in mind the General Strikes of the 1980s, having a few of them being repeated in the 1990s doesn't sound too appealing to me.
About the Procés... provided that a) Pujol keeps ruling CiU b) he feels comfortble supported by the PSC at the Catalan Parliament... everything is going to be fine...
OH wait!!!! 30 or 40 years of Pujolism?!?!?!
MY GOSH!!!!
Dr. Strangelove
Banned
But I am not writing it because writing two timelines in a row where Aznar gets blown up by a car bomb would be creepy.