WI Cortés Drowns at Iztapalapa in 1521?

[Huehuecoyotl]

In 1521, Cortés and a number of his conquistadores and native allies raided Iztapalapa, a city at one end of the dike which crossed Lake Texcoco, for food and supplies. While they were inside, burning and pillaging the city, the Mexica opened the channels and flooded the city.

IOTL, Cortés and most of his Spaniards survived, although many of their Tlaxcalteca friends weren't so lucky, and they lost almost all of their gunpowder. Let's say that Cortés' devil's luck finally runs out, and he drowns in Iztapalapa before the siege of Tenochtitlán can even begin.

What becomes of the remaining Spaniards in the territory of the Triple Alliance? And even if they are driven away or flee back to Veracruz and thence Cuba, can the Triple Alliance survive? Will the Spanish ever return?

 

[twovultures]

I'd say that Cortez's drowning would be pretty demoralizing for the Spaniards, and depending on the circumstances a lot of the other conquistadors could have drowned with him.

I don't think the Spanish would keep trying to conquer-they would retreat and regroup. If they try and leave, I imagine that they would have a falling out with the Tlaxclalans, who would see their leaving as betrayal. Alternatively, the Spanish could retreat to Tlaxcala, and there end up helping the Tlaxcalans against potential Aztec reprisals.

The Triple Alliance would probably not put a lot of energy into reprisal attacks, though. They would be reeling from smallpox introduced by the Spaniards, and trying to maintain order in their kingdom. Especially given the high kill ratio that Spaniards had on the battlefield, in a scenario where the Tlaxcalans and Spanish keep their alliance the Aztecs might let the Tlaxcalans go, giving them some breathing space and focusing their energies on the territory already under their control.

 

[Huehuecoyotl]

Do you suppose that this debacle will put the Spanish off of trying to outright conquer Mexico? It seems like such a loss of life and resources would encourage them to maintain trading links with the region, maybe establish trading ports later on, but not commit the forces to destroying the Triple Alliance.

 

[twovultures]

I think so. Cortes was sent to establish trade, not conquer the empire, and his death and the loss of so many men and resources will dissuade other would-be conquistadors from trying to conquer the Triple Alliance-I can see his death going down as evidence of God himself punishing someone who disobeyed orders from the King's representative. If the Triple Alliance consents to trade with the foreigners (though they may not want to, given the Spanish's previous attacks on them) the Spanish will be able to get a lot of gold from them in exchange for such mundane items as livestock, glasswork, etc. The Spanish generally didn't trade weapons to the Native Americans, but Spanish corruption could easily see the Aztecs getting swords, guns and gunpowder in exchange for trading gold away from the eyes of the Spanish tax collectors.

The question remains, however, on how stable the Aztecs can maintain their empire in the face of smallpox, measles, malaria, and other diseases that the Spanish will introduce. I think eventual conquest may very well occur, at very least the Triple Alliance and Tlaxcala would become protectorates of the Spanish Empire.

 

[Huehuecoyotl]

The question remains, however, on how stable the Aztecs can maintain their empire in the face of smallpox, measles, malaria, and other diseases that the Spanish will introduce. I think eventual conquest may very well occur, at very least the Triple Alliance and Tlaxcala would become protectorates of the Spanish Empire.

More like a system of trade, protectorates, and economic domination like what we saw in India IOTL, then. This is what I suspected might occur.

Thanks for your insight!