WI: China never joins the WTO

[Taunay]

For some reason, the US fails/never bothers to support Chinese entry and the PRC never enters the World Trade Organization.
What would be the impact of that on the world?
For sure, the 2000s commodities boom won't be as big as it was IOTL. This would have major implications in Latin American history.

 

[Deleted member 145219]

For some reason, the US fails/never bothers to support Chinese entry and the PRC never enters the World Trade Organization.
What would be the impact of that on the world?
For sure, the 2000s commodities boom won't be as big as it was IOTL. This would have major implications in Latin American history.

Made in China doesn't catch on in the United States. Manufacturing is stronger in the 2000's. Though Made in Mexico remains an issue.

 

[Taunay]

Made in China doesn't catch on in the United States. Manufacturing is stronger in the 2000's. Though Made in Mexico remains an issue.

The Rust Belt is not as weakened as it was then

 

[AresianEuropa]

If they still remain to not go for the US and Mexico, I can see them going for Southeast Asia and South Asia - basically a move IOTL present but made much earlier out of necessity here than "security".

 

[Taunay]

@Vinization @Guilherme Loureiro @JohnBull @holycookie How would this impact Brazil?

 

[Guilherme Loureiro]

@Vinization @Guilherme Loureiro @JohnBull @holycookie How would this impact Brazil?

Lesser commodity boom means Lula has a lot less money to push his agenda; Brazil may try to get some of the industry that in @ went to China but I don't see much success in that -Brazil is further from the USA than Mexico is and not as cheap as Vietnam or Indonesia. Effects of the slower economic growth may be hard to predict - does it mean a smaller Mensalão?(likely, IMO) Does it mean PSDB wins over PT in 2010?(maybe, but less likely than the previous one).

Another thing that is a game -changer is what would be the effects of a China outside the WTO in regards to the 2008 Crisis.

 

[Taunay]

Lesser commodity boom means Lula has a lot less money to push his agenda; Brazil may try to get some of the industry that in @ went to China but I don't see much success in that -Brazil is further from the USA than Mexico is and not as cheap as Vietnam or Indonesia. Effects of the slower economic growth may be hard to predict - does it mean a smaller Mensalão?(likely, IMO) Does it mean PSDB wins over PT in 2010?(maybe, but less likely than the previous one).

Another thing that is a game -changer is what would be the effects of a China outside the WTO in regards to the 2008 Crisis.

I'd say the Great Recession could turn into a depression

 

[Admiral Bloonbeard]

I'd say the Great Recession could turn into a depression

Why

 

[Taunay]

Why

I don't know nothing about economics, I just assume that without China the whole supply chain of the world economy would be weaker, so when the Crisis hits, it would be much stronger (Though I exaggerated a bit when I said "depression" lol)

 

[minhow]

I don't know nothing about economics, I just assume that without China the whole supply chain of the world economy would be weaker, so when the Crisis hits, it would be much stronger (Though I exaggerated a bit when I said "depression" lol)

Well, could other country replace China? I know that after the end of cold war, the US "exported" their industry to China. What if other country receiced it?

@Vinization @Guilherme Loureiro @JohnBull @holycookie How would this impact Brazil?

What if Brazil received all the industries and investments that China received OTL?

 

[West]

I'm ok with a richer Mexico that country could use some prosperity

 

[Taunay]

I'm ok with a richer Mexico that country could use some prosperity

I'm split. Brazil would be richer as the country would not be able to simply surf on the commodities boom. However, this also means that the 2000s won't be such a prosperous decade as it was IOTL. The 2010s and 2020s would be definitely better tho

 

[minhow]

I'm split. Brazil would be richer as the country would not be able to simply surf on the commodities boom. However, this also means that the 2000s won't be such a prosperous decade as it was IOTL. The 2010s and 2020s would be definitely better tho

But if Brazil industrialized like or partly like China did in the 90's and 2000's? It could have both the advantage of industrializing and producing the commodities for its internal market.

The rust belt was desindustrializing since the late cold war, and lots of these factories went to PRC, in this TL they go to Brazil.

The PRC in this timeline does something not intelligent, OTL they did lots of things that would make them lose WTO, losing their investments and foreign industries. Other potential countries do the same. In TL Brazil receives all this.

How the things would go in this TL? Instead of a powerful PRC, we have a powerful Brazil. What would be the effects on this?

 

[Admiral Bloonbeard]

I don't know nothing about economics, I just assume that without China the whole supply chain of the world economy would be weaker, so when the Crisis hits, it would be much stronger (Though I exaggerated a bit when I said "depression" lol)

Tip : Don't do that. It makes you look unprofessional and unreliable.

 

[Taunay]

But if Brazil industrialized like or partly like China did in the 90's and 2000's? It could have both the advantage of industrializing and producing the commodities for its internal market.

The rust belt was desindustrializing since the late cold war, and lots of these factories went to PRC, in this TL they go to Brazil.

The PRC in this timeline does something not intelligent, OTL they did lots of things that would make them lose WTO, losing their investments and foreign industries. Other potential countries do the same. In TL Brazil receives all this.

How the things would go in this TL? Instead of a powerful PRC, we have a powerful Brazil. What would be the effects on this?

If a left-leaning candidate still wins the 2006 election we could indeed see Brazil beginning an effort to industrialize.
Heloísa Helena, or even Cristovam Buarque would be great candidates (Assuming that Lula is weaker ITTL and is impeached after the Mensalão)

 

[minhow]

If a left-leaning candidate still wins the 2006 election we could indeed see Brazil beginning an effort to industrialize.
Heloísa Helena, or even Cristovam Buarque would be great candidates (Assuming that Lula is weaker ITTL and is impeached after the Mensalão)

Better keep Lula, because if he is impeached or weakened, you could see a more center or rightist candidate winning.

 

[Taunay]

Better keep Lula, because if he is impeached or weakened, you could see a more center or rightist candidate winning.

Good point

 

[RY1985]

For some reason, the US fails/never bothers to support Chinese entry and the PRC never enters the World Trade Organization.
What would be the impact of that on the world?
For sure, the 2000s commodities boom won't be as big as it was IOTL. This would have major implications in Latin American history.

There had bern case studies done on this, including one by AVIVA.

One predictable outcome would be that mass consumer electronics would be more expensive. However, mass manufacturing of lower-level goods (textiles, footwear, garments, furniture, household products) had already taken off in China in a big way even well before its WTO entry (I did a research study on this in university) and much of it was already being exported to the western world and was actually accelerating even without WTO entry, so that won't have matter much.

Part of the conditions of China's entry into the WTO was service sector was considerably foreign investment was to be considerably relaxed, especially in services such as retail, wholesale and distribution, with foreign banks and foreign financial services permitted to make inroads.

That means that without WTO entry, western consumer brands would have negligible presence in China, compared to OTL.

The biggest impact of China's entry into the WTO was the perception linked to the transparency of intellectual property rights. The misleading perception that the accession to WTO would mean IP rights could be enforced resulted in the wholesale of tech transfer of automotive technologies and semiconductor technologies to China by Western, European and Japanese companies, although there had been actual case studies where Japanese companies still did tech transfer in these fields even before China's WTO entry.

With regards to OTL's widespread availability of mass consumer electronics, what manufacturing was left in the Western world would still have transferred to the rest of East Asia, with South Korea and Taiwan retaining prominent role in value-added products, with the rest of Southeast Asia holding much of the mid-value chain. Labour markets and wages in the rest of East Asia would still mean manufacturers would offshore much if it out of the western world but it won't be as cheap as it was in OTL.

Source: I seen some studies done on this kind of hypothetical scenarios while in university.

 

[Taunay]

There had bern case studies done on this, including one by AVIVA.

One predictable outcome would be that mass consumer electronics would be more expensive. However, mass manufacturing of lower-level goods (textiles, footwear, garments, furniture, household products) had already taken off in China in a big way even well before its WTO entry (I did a research study on this in university) and much of it was already being exported to the western world and was actually accelerating even without WTO entry, so that won't have matter much.

Part of the conditions of China's entry into the WTO was service sector was considerably foreign investment was to be considerably relaxed, especially in services such as retail, wholesale and distribution, with foreign banks and foreign financial services permitted to make inroads.

That means that without WTO entry, western consumer brands would have negligible presence in China, compared to OTL.

The biggest impact of China's entry into the WTO was the perception linked to the transparency of intellectual property rights. The misleading perception that the accession to WTO would mean IP rights could be enforced resulted in the wholesale of tech transfer of automotive technologies and semiconductor technologies to China by Western, European and Japanese companies, although there had been actual case studies where Japanese companies still did tech transfer in these fields even before China's WTO entry.

With regards to OTL's widespread availability of mass consumer electronics, what manufacturing was left in the Western world would still have transferred to the rest of East Asia, with South Korea and Taiwan retaining prominent role in value-added products, with the rest of Southeast Asia holding much of the mid-value chain. Labour markets and wages in the rest of East Asia would still mean manufacturers would offshore much if it out of the western world but it won't be as cheap as it was in OTL.

Source: I seen some studies done on this kind of hypothetical scenarios while in university.

Thank you! I loved your answer.
If you have some of these studies could you link them in this thread, it would be a very interesting read (No problem if you don't have them!)

 

[RY1985]

Thank you! I loved your answer.
If you have some of these studies could you link them in this thread, it would be a very interesting read (No problem if you don't have them!)

I wil try to do a search, from what I recalled, the studies were published in journals. Most academic journals charge expensive subscriptions and, for those without a subscriptions, the one-time fee can be as much as USD$30. I no longer work at a university so I don't have the mass-bulk purchase usually done by universities.

But I will try to see if I can get an open-access versions.