In 334 BC, during the battle of the Granicus River, Alexander almost got killed. While his companions were engaging the Persian cavalry on the right bank, he got into an intense cavalry fight with some of the nobles and satraps, and was stunned by an axe-blow by Rhoesaces, the satrap of Ionia and Lydia. A second Persian noble, Spithridates, attempted to strike a killing blow, but his arm was cut off by Cleitus the Black, one of Alexander's companions, just a second before. Say Cleitus was a little slower, and Alexander ends up dead. Do the Macedonians still win? What happens to the Achaemenids? Will Macedon collapse? Will they eventually try again?
WI: Alexander dies at the Granicus River?
- Thread starter SunKing105
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Macedon's finance was in shambles. It was only the razing and wholesale enslavement of Thebes and the new revenues from conquering Anatolia (and enslavement of the Greek prisoners taken at Granicus) that saved Alexander from going broke. Odds are Macedon's finances ITTL fall apart, as Persia mobilizes its vast reserves to crush the upstarts, when the Macedonians fall apart into succession disputes instead of trying to capitalize on their gains.
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How the battle goes probably depends on how quickly news of Alexander's death spreads throughout the rest of the Greek army: if they know about it, I'd expect them to lose heart and flee; if they don't, they might still be able to pull off a victory. Even if they do win, however, the Greek alliance will probably fall apart without its Hegemon, so Alexander's army would probably end up having to retreat back to Europe anyway.
What happens next probably depends on the situation in Macedon. If they can find a strong leader, they'd probably be able to reassert hegemony over southern Greece and have another crack at invading Asia. If they can't, you'd probably see a return to the status quo ante Philippum, with Greece divided and the Persians playing off one state against another.
At the Granicus River though, Alexander wasn't considered a huge threat yet. It was the local satraps who fought him there, Darius hadn't brought up a royal army yet. More likely they negotiate some sort of return to Europe, and rub their hands with glee as Macedon falls apart, funding various rebel groups. But a full counter-invasion? Unlikely.
I don't think Alexander's death changes the Macedonian victory at Granicus, though. The Macedonian soldiers were too disciplined, and probably would still have won the battle, albeit less decisively. But once the Macedonians inevitably lose momentum over succession disputes, and the local satraps call up reinforcements to contest their control over the region, the game is up.
Even disciplined soldiers aren't immune to losing their morale after their leader died. There are several examples of this in history, and the Companions fight with the Persian cavalry was quite fierce. I doubt Macedon will be able to overwhelm the enemy so quickly after Alexander dies, which gives time for the Greek mercenaries in the rear to come and reinforce the Persians, OTL they didn't have an effect on the battle at all.
There would probably be a civil war, since Alexander's mother Olympias was ruthless at eliminating all other possible heirs, and when Philip was assassinated, Alexander executed all possible suspects. The only obvious candidate for succession, Philip Arrhidaeus, is mentally disabled, and I doubt that the Macedonians will be able to deal with both a civil war and Greek rebels supported by Persia. Plus the financial situation of Macedon isn't great right now, Alexander only had around 60 talents in his treasury at the time, and owed 500 talents to his creditors.
Maybe they will face real rivals later on? Rome was peripherical to the now Failed Alexander conquest
They might be butterflied in their rise to power, since there are more Greeks to aid the cities of Magna Grecia, and any major power in Greece might choose to go to Italy instead of going against Persia. I'm skeptical of saying that Rome will be untouched until they look toward the east, Italy was not isolated, and having such a drastic change as no Alexandrian conquest will certainly affect not only the political landscape, but the migrations of various peoples as well. And there's still Carthage, which might actually win ITTL because of the reasons I mentioned above.