I'll agree there. It would be incredibly difficult but not impossible. Personally I applaud Thespitron's creation of a Protestant France, though I do question if it would have gone as smoothly in RL as it did TTL.
WI: A healthier Francois II?
- Thread starter Emperor Constantine
- Start date
I'll agree there. It would be incredibly difficult but not impossible. Personally I applaud Thespitron's creation of a Protestant France, though I do question if it would have gone as smoothly in RL as it did TTL.
Smaller groups yes. But not small groups that reject so ostensibly the way of thinking of the vast majority of the population.The franks in Gaul and the wisigoths in Spain were to some extent forced to choose roman catholicism in order to win the loyalty and cooperation of their subjects.
One of the first kind of democratic movement in modern France was the League, which was the union of activist catholics considering roman catholicism was the religion of the people and so had to be the religion of the king.
The point you are completely missing is that you could no longer easily force people to change their religions belief in the mid 16th century. And especially not the will of the majority.
If people have some very strong material interest, such as "hey ! I no longer want to pay for those italians who build palaces and live in lust in Rome-Babylone. Let's take these vast church real estates.", this is just not going to work.
The big difference between France and Spain on one side, and Germany and England on an other side is this. The french and spanish kings tightly controlled the church of their kingdoms.
The english king did less.
And the german king/emperor and princes did much less.
If you want some kind of Protestantism to triumph in France, you are going to have to start 3 centuries earlier with some similar clash between the king and the pope as the clash between Henry VIII and the pope. Philip II Augustus was excommunicated by Pope Innocent III. Have this event end up differently and occur at the time of the Bouvines battle, for example.
Pretty much my feelings in a nutshell. It really is a fine work, but the opening setup leaves something to be desired. I actually think that the union of England, France, and Scotland has a better chance if the leader is Catholic than otherwise, given the numbers involved on each side.
It was smooth enough for France, England, and Scotland to form a personal union while doing it, which is something that would have been incredibly difficult without forcing the vast majority of French citizens to convert to Protestantism., not to mention the fact that France had just been devastated by a major war on its own territory.
But then, those who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones, what with my late-term Byzantine survival
I am pleased by this thread. It demonstrates the power of my fully armed and fully operational TL, which can apparently hijack other threads without even the slightest input from me! Soon all other TLs on this site shall fall, until only AMPU remains! MWAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!
Isn't it only a hijack if it takes the thread offtopic?I am pleased by this thread. It demonstrates the power of my fully armed and fully operational TL, which can apparently hijack other threads without even the slightest input from me! Soon all other TLs on this site shall fall, until only AMPU remains! MWAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!
Still impressive nonetheless
Okay, leaving aside your first statement, the second statement is enough of a distortion to count as a downright falsehood. One cannot in all honesty call what the Franks and Visigoths converted to "Roman Catholicism"--"Nicene Creed Christianity" might be more accurate. Indeed, the distance between this and the Protestant Reformation, both in time and in details, make this a very inapt comparison.
Further, those Visigoths in Spain got conquered by the Moors who most certainly did not convert to Roman Catholicism or anything like it, thus suggesting further holes in your theory.
You do not have to educate me as to the democratic nature of the Catholic League. I know of it, and admire them for it. Indeed, to my mind one of the tragedies of the common narrative of the French Wars of Religion is that it reduces a fascinating group struggling for many worthwhile things into a bunch of bigoted, decadent aristocrats, fighting out of mere spite and prejudice.
This is nonsense. Bohemia in the 17th century was changed from majority Protestant to majority Catholic, as were Hungary and much of Austria. You have, in essence, denied some of the greatest successes of the Counter-Reformation.
Yes, it's not like people might be motivated by other religious concerns. Ignore the mass of Huguenots and French Catholic Evangelicals. They're simply cluttering things up.
Again, this is a rather distorted view of things--reading it, one might almost get the idea that the German Emperor converted, instead of rather stubbornly not converting. The German Princes' relationship with the Church was far more complicated than what you seem to imagine it to be, and their reasons for joining--or rejecting--the Reformation were not simply 'I want to get one over the Pope'.
Now, the King of France has many incentives to stay in the Church--but that doesn't mean his remaining is guaranteed. Indeed, even OTL, where France stayed, the relationship between France and Rome was frequently testy--witness Louis XIV and Innocent XI.
You do not need anything so far-reaching or dramatic (which, I would argue would actually NOT fulfill the requirements as what resulted would not be Protestantism but some roughly similar thing.) The French threatened to schism at various times during the 16th century--if they go through with it--which I freely admit will take some doing--it's completely possible for the resulting church to take an increasingly Reformist tack. It will not be easy, but it would be possible.
...And now I promise the next thing I'll write about in this thread will be a healthier Francois II. Honest Native American.
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Okay, let's begin. That promised post on Francois II. Okay, first question--is the healthier Francois II Charles IX healthy or Henri III healthy? If the former, he'll probably live longer, but there's always the danger of a sudden turn of bad health carrying him away--if the latter, he'll probably get a decently long reign. So, let's go with the second. It'll at least make Mary's marriage happier. Stick in a butterfly net, so that history goes about the same, right down to daddy's horrible fluke jousting accident--and now we begin.
Now let's start with something simple--the Guises are going to be movers and shakers in Francois II reign, especially the start. However, at this point in time that is not instant Huguenot-persecution--Cardinal de Lorraine is the unofficial head of the family in politics and he fancies himself a Catholic reformer. Lorraine thinks he can get everyone onboard with his great big religious compromise wherein the Gallican Church becomes more Huguenot-friendly, and the Huguenots respond by becoming more Church-friendly. The problem is he can't--his plans may be popular with the French elite but the rank and file reject them, the Pope doesn't like them and there always enough firebrands and opportunists on both sides to stir things up. However fond his wife is of her uncle, Francois is probably going to get tired of the Cardinal promising peace and not delivering--Lorraine probably resigns from the government.
At this point, French government is going to be dominated by the same problems that it faced OTL--toleration is unpopular, but persecution is untenable. To the good, the Guises are likely not signing up with the Catholic radicals--but that might actually make them harder to deal with, as now they don't have leaders with a commitment to things not going entirely insane. Still, with a long-living, fairly healthy king with a male Catholic heir things should probably go all right in the long run, provided he doesn't end on the wrong end of someone's knife/shot, always a possibility.
Now whether the union with Scotland holds is another matter. Mary is probably going to continue to try to push for mutual toleration between Catholics and Protestants, which will comfort some and alarm others. At least two very important people are probably going to want this union dead, one of whom should be no surprise--Queen Elizabeth of England--and one who may very well be--King Philip of Spain. Both of them will have misgivings about supporting a movement to depose a seated monarch, but both of them are also pragmatists about things like this, and neither want France to be able to threaten England from Scotland. (Indeed, England and Spain probably stay on better terms ITTL.) Of course, this doesn't mean that any such attempt will succeed, but... well, life in Scotland is going to get interesting. (And, assuming something starts up in the Netherlands, France is likely to meddle in that--enjoy the cross-confessional plotting!)
So, those are some of my general ideas on the matter. My apologies for not being more specific, but so much depends on so many variables--does Francois, Duke of Guise get killed, and do the Guises become convinced that Gaspard de Coligny is behind the killing?--as to make it very hard to see exactly how it will turn out.
Now let's start with something simple--the Guises are going to be movers and shakers in Francois II reign, especially the start. However, at this point in time that is not instant Huguenot-persecution--Cardinal de Lorraine is the unofficial head of the family in politics and he fancies himself a Catholic reformer. Lorraine thinks he can get everyone onboard with his great big religious compromise wherein the Gallican Church becomes more Huguenot-friendly, and the Huguenots respond by becoming more Church-friendly. The problem is he can't--his plans may be popular with the French elite but the rank and file reject them, the Pope doesn't like them and there always enough firebrands and opportunists on both sides to stir things up. However fond his wife is of her uncle, Francois is probably going to get tired of the Cardinal promising peace and not delivering--Lorraine probably resigns from the government.
At this point, French government is going to be dominated by the same problems that it faced OTL--toleration is unpopular, but persecution is untenable. To the good, the Guises are likely not signing up with the Catholic radicals--but that might actually make them harder to deal with, as now they don't have leaders with a commitment to things not going entirely insane. Still, with a long-living, fairly healthy king with a male Catholic heir things should probably go all right in the long run, provided he doesn't end on the wrong end of someone's knife/shot, always a possibility.
Now whether the union with Scotland holds is another matter. Mary is probably going to continue to try to push for mutual toleration between Catholics and Protestants, which will comfort some and alarm others. At least two very important people are probably going to want this union dead, one of whom should be no surprise--Queen Elizabeth of England--and one who may very well be--King Philip of Spain. Both of them will have misgivings about supporting a movement to depose a seated monarch, but both of them are also pragmatists about things like this, and neither want France to be able to threaten England from Scotland. (Indeed, England and Spain probably stay on better terms ITTL.) Of course, this doesn't mean that any such attempt will succeed, but... well, life in Scotland is going to get interesting. (And, assuming something starts up in the Netherlands, France is likely to meddle in that--enjoy the cross-confessional plotting!)
So, those are some of my general ideas on the matter. My apologies for not being more specific, but so much depends on so many variables--does Francois, Duke of Guise get killed, and do the Guises become convinced that Gaspard de Coligny is behind the killing?--as to make it very hard to see exactly how it will turn out.
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The Scots situation is far from likely to be resolved and even in OTL Mary was forced to recognise there was little chance of dragging the bulk of the realm back to the Catholic faith.
If their foreign Queen leaves them alone and leaves power with Arran as leader of the Lords of the Congregation and perhaps later her half brother then England will probably leave the Scots alone too beyond delivering healthy pensions to the protestant lords.
Long-term the issue will be if and when Mary produces an heir and if as she ages how she and Francis feel about their realm of Scotland remaining Protestant with their tacit approval.
And I wouldn't rule out the Lords deposing her if she attempts to limit a) their religious freedoms or b) their rights to call parliament etc.
Elizabeth's council in OTL put significant pressure on her to aid protestants in Scotland and Europe - she was always reluctant due to her general view of them as subjects in open rebellion against their lawful sovereign - but her pragmatism was such that she managed to square her conscience on the issue but in a timeline with Mary and Francis still together and the threat that posed to her then I suspect her support will be diverted to the French and Scots Protestants rather than the Dutch (as in OTL). But such interventions or financial support were not particularly successful in OTL.
Philip's support for Elizabeth is always strange but we do know that he lobbied hard to prevent her excommunication in the early years of her reign and that is not likely to change - it is also true that all but the most reactionary English Catholics regarded her as their sovereign and she had their support - it is only as persecution increased due to Mary's fall from favour and arrival in England as a clear Catholic alternative and Elizabeth's excommunication that more turned against her whether it is enough to support any movement in favour of Mary is debateable or strong enough to depose her.
No Mary in prison in England and her being seen as a foreign Queen (and a French one to boot) may reduce the amount of support for her amongst English catholics even further.
Under this scenario the pressure on Elizabeth to marry or name an heir is going to be as intense as in OTL but it is very debateable whether she will do more than in OTL on the marriage issue - it was a valuable political and diplomatic tool and that wont change in these circumstances for as long as she remains of childbearing age.
As she aged the concern about the succession declined amongst the council largely because there was a perfect alternative - in the male, protestant and married James VI of Scotland - he now vanishes - and a
French Catholic Daupin is not going to cut the mustard.
I fully expect Parliament and the council to pressure Elizabeth with some earlier version of an Exclusion Bill - similar perhaps to the one they did pass removing the right of succession to anyone involved in attempts on the Queen's life.
Catherine Grey was at court in the early reign - until her suspect marriage - she becomes much more important in this scenario despite Elizabeth's apparent distaste for her Grey cousins. Likewise expect the handsome tall lad to be a frequent visitor at Elizabeth's court.
Assuming Catherine disgraces herself then Darnley is going to be a key figure - his character may have been somewhat lacking but with his dominant mother around him he will be under a much tighter leash than he was in Scotland (Elizabeth had refused to allow Margaret Douglas to travel north during Henry's disastrous marriage). However it may be decades of indecision before he is allowed to marry anyone who might be regarded as non-threatening to Elizabeth.
Whoever the English opt for there will be a disputed succession on Elizabeth's death.
The biggest problem for the English will be the constant threat of war either during Elizabeth's reign or after her death - the question becomes whether Mary and Francis or their heirs are gong to be able to undertake any kind of War of the English Succession.
With regard France - it is a long time since i studied the french situation in the latter half of the 16th Century - but Mary's often mooted moderacy on religion was in part due to the circumstances of her life in Scotland after her husband's death I don't necessarily think she is going to be a particularly tolerant French Queen Consort.
If their foreign Queen leaves them alone and leaves power with Arran as leader of the Lords of the Congregation and perhaps later her half brother then England will probably leave the Scots alone too beyond delivering healthy pensions to the protestant lords.
Long-term the issue will be if and when Mary produces an heir and if as she ages how she and Francis feel about their realm of Scotland remaining Protestant with their tacit approval.
And I wouldn't rule out the Lords deposing her if she attempts to limit a) their religious freedoms or b) their rights to call parliament etc.
Elizabeth's council in OTL put significant pressure on her to aid protestants in Scotland and Europe - she was always reluctant due to her general view of them as subjects in open rebellion against their lawful sovereign - but her pragmatism was such that she managed to square her conscience on the issue but in a timeline with Mary and Francis still together and the threat that posed to her then I suspect her support will be diverted to the French and Scots Protestants rather than the Dutch (as in OTL). But such interventions or financial support were not particularly successful in OTL.
Philip's support for Elizabeth is always strange but we do know that he lobbied hard to prevent her excommunication in the early years of her reign and that is not likely to change - it is also true that all but the most reactionary English Catholics regarded her as their sovereign and she had their support - it is only as persecution increased due to Mary's fall from favour and arrival in England as a clear Catholic alternative and Elizabeth's excommunication that more turned against her whether it is enough to support any movement in favour of Mary is debateable or strong enough to depose her.
No Mary in prison in England and her being seen as a foreign Queen (and a French one to boot) may reduce the amount of support for her amongst English catholics even further.
Under this scenario the pressure on Elizabeth to marry or name an heir is going to be as intense as in OTL but it is very debateable whether she will do more than in OTL on the marriage issue - it was a valuable political and diplomatic tool and that wont change in these circumstances for as long as she remains of childbearing age.
As she aged the concern about the succession declined amongst the council largely because there was a perfect alternative - in the male, protestant and married James VI of Scotland - he now vanishes - and a
French Catholic Daupin is not going to cut the mustard.
I fully expect Parliament and the council to pressure Elizabeth with some earlier version of an Exclusion Bill - similar perhaps to the one they did pass removing the right of succession to anyone involved in attempts on the Queen's life.
Catherine Grey was at court in the early reign - until her suspect marriage - she becomes much more important in this scenario despite Elizabeth's apparent distaste for her Grey cousins. Likewise expect the handsome tall lad to be a frequent visitor at Elizabeth's court.
Assuming Catherine disgraces herself then Darnley is going to be a key figure - his character may have been somewhat lacking but with his dominant mother around him he will be under a much tighter leash than he was in Scotland (Elizabeth had refused to allow Margaret Douglas to travel north during Henry's disastrous marriage). However it may be decades of indecision before he is allowed to marry anyone who might be regarded as non-threatening to Elizabeth.
Whoever the English opt for there will be a disputed succession on Elizabeth's death.
The biggest problem for the English will be the constant threat of war either during Elizabeth's reign or after her death - the question becomes whether Mary and Francis or their heirs are gong to be able to undertake any kind of War of the English Succession.
With regard France - it is a long time since i studied the french situation in the latter half of the 16th Century - but Mary's often mooted moderacy on religion was in part due to the circumstances of her life in Scotland after her husband's death I don't necessarily think she is going to be a particularly tolerant French Queen Consort.
It's not strange at all. For most of the early portion of his reign if the choice was backing a Protestant and backing a Valois--or someone connected to them--Philip chose the Protestant. What turned Philip against Elizabeth was the constant meddling in the Netherlands.
It's only strange because people only remember Philip II of Spain as the champion of Catholicism who fought the Protestants. People tend to forget that Philip II was also a pretty skilled politician as well as a pragmatist: when you need an ally, you shouldn't care about his religion until you got what you wanted. In the case of Philip II of Spain, as he needed a weak France, he needed England on his side.mcdnab said:
It's a bit like people not understanding why France, a Catholic country ruled by a pious King (Louis XIII) with a Cardinal as Prime Minister (Richelieu) that crushed the Protestants (La Rochelle), joined the Protestant side in the Thirty Years Wars. You won't understand that if you don't understand the rivalry between France and the Hapsburgs.
One should never forget realpolitik.
Another thing to remember is that Louis XIII and Richelieu were hardly bigots filled with a deep repugnance for Huguenots--they crushed them because the Huguenots insisted on making themselves a threat. (Of course, another thing we tend to forget is that the original Edict of Nantes wasn't just toleration, it was armed toleration, one reason many people objected to it.)
True: the main motivation of both was to ensure Royal Authority. The Edict of Nantes had given Strongholds to Protestants as well as Political Assemblies, making them a potential threat that needed to be taken down. It stopped at that: Louis XIII was quite a zealous Catholic, one of Richelieu's firts act as a Bishop had been to apply the Council of Trent but neither the King nor the Cardinal wanted a confessional state (One King, One Faith).Space Oddity said: