It may not even be in the (early draft of the) book so much as something that came out as part of the fallout and arguments around the book that became a national discussion in itself when the Kennedy family tried to block (parts) of it. Honestly, I cannot remember.
To your second point: that's the billion dollar question, isn't it? Let me say this comes at the intersection of mythology and resentment to the mythology, fact versus hearsay (but sometimes all we have is the hearsay), and all that often says more about the people discussing it rather than the figures and events they are discussing. It's also a matter of the human flaws of the figures involved; not just in the moment but how they discuss the moment later, how they contextualize it, how they take blame or credit, how memory changes, or how they may be outright lying. Who and how do you trust? How do
you interpret human nature? Our speculation may be right but you cannot escape the opinion portion of all this. It may be under a bedrock of academic airs and marble, but it is still there.
If we feel a ping of desire or ire reading something, that speaks of us rather than what we are reading. And if you direct your speculation to appease either side of that nature in you, that is tailoring the history and making it a fiction with a historical cast of characters to lend gravitas. Granted, alternate history is fiction. But a bad alternate history is telling the people what to say rather than listening to what they say to the author and writing that. It is a director rather than an observer of events playing out in cause and effect with the interplay of your cast's personalities.
On a living Kennedy scenario, I have come to the view of what I call "the Tapestry"; a vast interplay of events and concerns that weave together, impact each other, pull on or loosen each other and bins each other together. Interrelated with that are the personalities and probabilities of the players involved and who you take as honest, half honest or a liar. I will not be able to cover everything or everything in full detail here: I'm human. And I don't like doing this because it gets parsed quoted and then it can become a back and forth of the different optimisms, resentments or other personalities of the person quoting me. That is further complicated with who is a good source or a bad source or the ulterior motive we have to gauge, which affects context and what is really the truth. This is a similar reason I rarely reply to Kennedy / Vietnam threads anymore: I don't want to be the person that is the focal point for all the discussion on that back and forth with whatever positivity or hostility there is. And there always is because it's a personalized issue of true passions, good and bad.
My opinion in easy brackets:
- Kennedy runs against Goldwater. If there is time, we may get Lincoln-Douglas debates. They discussed this. Those debates may not occur because life is a busy thing. If they did occur: the fear would be giving Goldwater legitimacy. The positive would be this is a diplomatic forum discussion between Liberalism and Conservatism for the soul of America we perhaps really needed to have. It is a married couple that needs to work it out that never did. I think Kennedy comes out looking very good in contrast to Goldwater. I think Goldwater may make some long term inroads, albeit that does not mean a Conservative revolution. I also think this would be a major historical conversation you would be hit over the head with in school for all eternity; an absolutely pivotal moment in American high.
- Kennedy beats Goldwater handily. He's Goldwater. The people that hated Kennedy were already Goldwater people. Kennedy goes into his second term with majorities he can work with.
- Kennedy manages to get the major legislation through. This is not just the Great Man theory. I do respect Johnson's political aptitudes but the movement on legislation was not only 'Big Daddy'. It was also the majorities in the Congress, the changes in makeup and movement done there, and the effort of the politicians there against their intractable foes in tandem with an administration that was supportive and working very hard to make things happen. I'd argue that the "we could have beat Kennedy but not Johnson" was both an opinion statement and an excuse to dodge responsibility for Civil Rights getting through. It was an idea whose time had come (and there's a book of that name that you can look up on this thesis) and the pressures were already in play.
- That said, Kennedy is not Johnson and is not going to go as much full bore on what Johnson did. He's a Good Government Liberal (as much as he saw Liberal as meaning a New Dealer, which he was not). He was not a Big Government Liberal. That does not mean there will not be a big government or imperial presidency. It does mean that it would be for a purpose rather than its own sake or it's own sake as the merit. That being said: how much of what Johnson did in addition to the base line (which Kennedy may pursue instead) survive much past him?
That is roughly the domestic Kennedy. Onto the international Kennedy, Kennedy was in a position to have the dynamic of "Nixon goes to China" just not with China:
- Kennedy would seek stronger peace overtures towards the Soviet Union and detente earlier than occurred. This detente had been tried before under Eisenhower, before the U2 ended it. It would be achieved later in the 1970s. But this was the second great period to achieve that. It was after the hostilities of the 1960s, which began with the U2 Incident and carried through Kennedy's early term and which had peaked with the Cuban Missile Crisis before rolling back with it's outcome. Kennedy wants detente, wants a comprehensive test ban treaty as part of it, wants to lower international pressure and chaos, and has the prestige and legitimacy and communication relationship with Khrushchev to do so coming off of Cuba '62. This would be his grand achievement.
- Complicating that is the similar likelihood that Khrushchev is going to be ousted. I think Kennedy could still work with Brezhnev and the OTL detente bears than out.
- Kennedy would seek rapprochement with Castro because they were already discussing that. No one was as surprised as me by that fact. In the aftermath of the Cuban Missile Crisis, the Soviets were wary of Cuba and Cuba was wary of the Soviet. Neither particularly wanted the other or trusted the other as a partner. Kennedy thought if he delayed normalizing relations until after 1964, he could sell it to the public. This would lessen tensions in the Americas and lessen the chaos of Cuba as a proactive player in Communist insurgencies globally and especially in the Americas. It would also lessen the American assumption that Castro was behind every left wing effort in the Americas.
- Complicating that is Santo Domingo and Brazil. I don't know how Santo Domingo would play out and I'm not sure how Brazil would play out in this scenario. Kennedy was not above coups as an idea. The context is important: the coups were not simply the CIA giving money and making the coups happen at their dictate and direction. It is close, but no Cuban cigar. The coups were generally already against the backdrop of a chaotic situation of some shade with domestic problems and resentments, talk of a coup already in their national militaries, while the US was also upset with the current leadership. This is where the US role gets murky in Brazil or Vietnam. The US took advantage of domestic affairs, put pressure on those affairs (big asterisk here for what that means and the culpability of it) and reassured US support would continue. The US effort in Cuba was going to be Operation Brother Sam, which began but was not needed because the Brazilian military wrapped up the coup before the US military was needed.
- Castro may not like that. Even if the US plays less of a role or no overt role, Castro may still assume overt and direct US involvement. Or Kennedy may back off it and it may not happen regardless or be delayed or lessened.
- Vietnam: I would not be able to give proper enough length to that here. I would not because it was a real war, with men and women killed and injured. I would not because it was a real hurt to real people, physically and spiritually. I will not because with all that as true, it is not intellectual and detached: it is real and emotional and flairs individuals passion. Vietnam is the black box of my statement that sometimes, this says more about us than it does the topic being discussed. An alternative Vietnam must be discussed as itself and too often, by the optimists it became the proverbial middle finger by a Flower Power Christ Kennedy to a Lyndon Johnson that never would have been, or a resentful "it still happened or it happens even worse" by the people personally irate at the Camelot mythology.
- Kennedy would frankly Vietnam did not exist. He felt Berlin, Cuba, etc were greater concerns. He was wary of the Vietnamese government and it's failures. That was all exacerbated by the insanity the Diem regime pursued in 1963.
- My opinion is that the 1963 Withdrawal order is an absolute red herring on the administration with Vietnam. It is a symptom but not what is really in play here. It was to give Kennedy leverage in what he would really do with Vietnam by getting it out of press focus and to make it look like the US was doing something. It gave red meat for optics, while the reality would be given a free hand. And that free hand was "we'll cross that bridge when we get to it". That does not mean the OTL war. What that does mean is dealing with the situation as and in the way it presented itself, it's options and it's opportunities
- I do not see John Kennedy making an Americanized war with half a million troops put in place with the excuse of a Gulf of Tonkin incident that turned out to be either partially or outright false. Or even if partially true was not warranting of a massive ground war directed by US bodies and effort, nakedly and openly. I don't see that in Kennedy's personality or past actions. If you have time, look into the "Virtual JFK" documentary.
- I think Kennedy would have not wanted to see South Vietnam fall but at the same time he would not want to have to US tied directly to the albatross of a war that the South Vietnamese would need to win themselves, which they were not thus far. Direct involvement means absolute responsibility for every failure or success with total public and media attention which would limit flexibility and demand and dictate rather than allow actions. There's the hell of it.
- I think Kennedy would want Vietnamization and peace with honor in whatever way he could get it. I have argued in the past and still do that Kennedy would have sent aid and supply and advisers, but would not directly involve US military war efforts in Vietnam.
- The hell of it is Diem is dead and gone. Diem is dead and gone because he was basically committing suicide with his corruptions, provocations, oppression of the Buddhist majority and embarrassment to the US in all of that. How much media attention it was getting and Madame Nhu touring the US was another serious problem. There was no way Diem would stay. But you end up with a new bad without him: a revolving door of leaders. That doesn't mean the US makes it Korean War II. That does mean the situation is now different and "we must cross that bridge".
- This gets into the tapestry. Everything I mentioned is interconnected and the problem is we must not only understand Vietnam in the larger context but the larger alternative context. Vietnam is easy to become myopic on because it screams and gets itself into trouble every way it can. It distracts. It's chaos is by nature impermanent but in action seems permanent despite that impermanence. It has that quality both in historicity and in alternate history discussion.
- Normalize relations with Cuba, detente with the USSR, and whether overtly or by passive happenstance, neutralize the situations of support in Vietnam and Cuba between the USSR and US to withdrawal a combat focus from those theaters and pressure a normalizing / acceptance of current realities by the domestic forces there. Wait out the revolving door of generals, keep involvement on a low boil, and shift the realities in the region by the global rather than local balance of power. Keep it off the front page, get out from under direct support when you can and whatever happens three years after whatever you did doesn't matter.
We don't know. We have some of the women who have talked about it (which then gets into the matter of evidence versus hearsay), but it is impossible to say without a literal record. If you wanted my opinions: less than you may think as a legend, more than you would reasonably think if you took into account realism, and as much but only as much as could be possible for an actual man with a life and a job.
Could you provide a source? I say this because the problem of this type of history is it is tabloid history. It does not mean it is wrong. What it does mean is that it is hearsay down the line, often without cited sources, and often where the sources that do cite a source are a source that cited a source that cited a source on and on down the rabbit hole to a source that is very flimsy. That is a problem with mainstream history books as well, but gets very rough in this area as there is less basis to be academic (and true) and more basis is assumptions of a juicy legend.
I've never found a good source for Monroe, but that does not mean it is wrong. I do not bel the RFK version, though. Robert Kennedy was very, very Catholic, and he was more his mother's son than his father's. He however did have the Kennedy libido, but that meant 11 children rather than a string of affairs.