What if the Vlora Incident resulted in a war between the USSR and Albania?

[kernel]

The Vlora incident occured in April of 1961 during the Albanian-Soviet split, when Albanian troops laid seige the Soviet naval base at Vlora and forced Soviets to withdraw, resulting in the casualties of numerous Soviet sailors. In response, Khrushchev enacted sanctions on Albania and ended diplomatic relations.

Vlora incident - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

What would have occured if the Soviets were determined to keep their presence in the Mediterranean, and responded to Albanian provocations with a military response to overthrow the Hoxha regime and install a pro-Soviet government? How would this have affected Soviet relations with Yugoslavia (which was very friendly with Albania) as well as with Maoist China?

According to the wiki article, Khurshchev was planning a military response to the Vlora incident to punish Albania, but this never materialized due to the Cuban Missile Crisis.

 

[Domrémy-Scorniçesti Axis]

The Vlora incident occured in April of 1961 during the Albanian-Soviet split, when Albanian troops laid seige the Soviet naval base at Vlora and forced Soviets to withdraw, resulting in the casualties of numerous Soviet sailors. In response, Khrushchev enacted sanctions on Albania and ended diplomatic relations.

Vlora incident - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

What would have occured if the Soviets were determined to keep their presence in the Mediterranean, and responded to Albanian provocations with a military response to overthrow the Hoxha regime and install a pro-Soviet government? How would this have affected Soviet relations with Yugoslavia (which was very friendly with Albania) as well as with Maoist China?

According to the wiki article, Khurshchev was planning a military response to the Vlora incident to punish Albania, but this never materialized due to the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Yugoslavia was not friendly with Albania at all, since Hoxha was a hardline Stalinist and saw the Yugoslavs as trying to dominate Albania economically. I can see Tito publicly opposing it but being privately neutral; Mao would be strongly opposed and the border clashes anticipated a few years.
The intervention would be succesful, defeating the weak Albanian military and replacing Hoxha with Mehmet Shehu; it would hurt the Soviet Union's reputation in the West, though.

 

[West234]

How is the Soviet Union supposed to reach Albania without invading Yugoslavia I doubt that by this point Yugoslavia will let them pass no matter how they feel about Albania? Could they do it by sea I don’t see that being practical personally?

 

[kernel]

How is the Soviet Union supposed to reach Albania without invading Yugoslavia I doubt that by this point Yugoslavia will let them pass no matter how they feel about Albania? Could they do it by sea I don’t see that being practical personally?

It could be a combination of Soviet air and naval power along with assistance from anti-Hoxha factions within Albania. Honestly, it might have been easier to launch a coup against Hoxha, which was tried but failed.

 

[raharris1973]

How pillbox'ed was Albania by then? Not thoroughly as it later would be, I think.

but this never materialized due to the Cuban Missile Crisis.

This is kind of a poor excuse that seems made up. We're talking about a crisis 18 months later. I think the Soviets had moved on from military punishment or hands-on regime change ideas.

Much as Tito hated that Hoxha guy, don't think he'd like the precedent of a Soviet *successful* Bay of Pigs - so a Hungary, I guess, on the Adriatic.

Hoxha getting whacked by an assassination, I could see him be fine with.

Still, just for the lulz and potential Sino-Soviet implication/complication Ed pointed out, this Albania invasion idea could be fun.

Mao could overreact and be hard to predict. He got sidelined for much of the early 60s over Great Leap Forward failures, but I don't know that he was really deprived of any power by spring/summer 1961. If his reaction, or general Chinese leadership reaction is to go from ideological tension to significant border clashes with the USSR as early as 61-62, that could be serious business. It could add to their troubles along the Indian border, Taiwan Straits, Tibet, the internal famine and sporadic mutinies, and leave the Sino-Soviet border in paranoid, militarily built up spiral earlier. That could make it impossible for Moscow and Beijing to cooperate on aiding North Vietnam (which they amazingly did until about 1970, via Soviet shipments over Chinese rail) or even aid Hanoi at the same time.

 

[kernel]

How pillbox'ed was Albania by then? Not thoroughly as it later would be, I think.


This is kind of a poor excuse that seems made up. We're talking about a crisis 18 months later. I think the Soviets had moved on from military punishment or hands-on regime change ideas.

Much as Tito hated that Hoxha guy, don't think he'd like the precedent of a Soviet *successful* Bay of Pigs - so a Hungary, I guess, on the Adriatic.

Hoxha getting whacked by an assassination, I could see him be fine with.

Still, just for the lulz and potential Sino-Soviet implication/complication Ed pointed out, this Albania invasion idea could be fun.

Mao could overreact and be hard to predict. He got sidelined for much of the early 60s over Great Leap Forward failures, but I don't know that he was really deprived of any power by spring/summer 1961. If his reaction, or general Chinese leadership reaction is to go from ideological tension to significant border clashes with the USSR as early as 61-62, that could be serious business. It could add to their troubles along the Indian border, Taiwan Straits, Tibet, the internal famine and sporadic mutinies, and leave the Sino-Soviet border in paranoid, militarily built up spiral earlier. That could make it impossible for Moscow and Beijing to cooperate on aiding North Vietnam (which they amazingly did until about 1970, via Soviet shipments over Chinese rail) or even aid Hanoi at the same time.

There truly are several butterflies if Khrushchev has decided to go ahead with his plan. I might even make my own TL sometime down the road, but I'll probably need to do significant research before then. "A Hungary on the Adriatic" has a nice ring to it.

 

[McAuslan_in_the_Rough]

Something interesting is going on with the Wikipedia article here. It states:

"After the Soviets tried to leave Albania, they were pursued by the Albanian Naval Force and threatened with gunships. During this crisis, a group of Soviets were killed and a Soviet ship was destroyed by the Albanian army.[7]"

The reference is to a webpage in Russian: https://life.ru/p/1427054, but this makes no mention of any Soviet servicemen being killed or any Soviet ship sunk by Albanians. All it says about the events surrounding the base is that the Albanians provoked constant conflicts and fights with Soviet sailors and damaged property and generally made it impossible for the base to operate, eventually resulting in a Soviet withdrawal. I did some brief scanning of Russian sources, and there is no mention of actual armed conflict anywhere.

So while I can see potential for the Soviet-Albanian split to result in some greater level of conflict (though I really doubt a full-on invasion is likely), the Vlore incident may not have been quite as much of a provocation to the USSR as Wikipedia would have.

 

[The Banker]

People of this thread, I have a question

If for some reason Hoxha makes the Vlora accident worse causing the USSR to be extremely angry but they still don't do anything
Then some Albanian politician called X will coup Hoxha and assume power. He doesn't have to be a PRO-USSR guy necessarily. But he will just say that Comrade Hoxha's actions have hurt Albania and Albania needs new leadership.

can you give me names of candidates for X?
who will be this X?

 

[Lalli]

People of this thread, I have a question

If for some reason Hoxha makes the Vlora accident worse causing the USSR to be extremely angry but they still don't do anything
Then some Albanian politician called X will coup Hoxha and assume power. He doesn't have to be a PRO-USSR guy necessarily. But he will just say that Comrade Hoxha's actions have hurt Albania and Albania needs new leadership.

can you give me names of candidates for X?
who will be this X?

Was there even any other people as them who were extremely loyal to Hoxha? He was pretty purge happy so might be hard to find someone who would want and could oust Hoxha.

 

[Monk78]

Could we see an Italian force intervening in Albania to preempt a soviet invasion?

 

[Lalli]

Could we see an Italian force intervening in Albania to preempt a soviet invasion?

I bit doubt that. Italian army might has more liberties than Bundeswehr or Japanese SDF but NATO hardly would be really happy if Italy begin its own operations without asking.

 

[Fearless Leader]

People of this thread, I have a question

If for some reason Hoxha makes the Vlora accident worse causing the USSR to be extremely angry but they still don't do anything
Then some Albanian politician called X will coup Hoxha and assume power. He doesn't have to be a PRO-USSR guy necessarily. But he will just say that Comrade Hoxha's actions have hurt Albania and Albania needs new leadership.

can you give me names of candidates for X?
who will be this X?

Mehmet Shehu and Beqir Balluku are the two men you need to be focusing on. If either of them broke with Hoxha during the 1960s, he'd be vulnerable. If Shehu (secret police) convinced Balluku (Army) to jump Hoxha would be gone in a flash.

That being said, it's probably worth noting that an escalated Vlora incident could lead to complications with the Sino-Soviet split. As early as 1956, Hoxha was sending out feelers to Beijing

 

[Monk78]

Mehmet Shehu and Beqir Balluku are the two men you need to be focusing on. If either of them broke with Hoxha during the 1960s, he'd be vulnerable. If Shehu (secret police) convinced Balluku (Army) to jump Hoxha would be gone in a flash.

That being said, it's probably worth noting that an escalated Vlora incident could lead to complications with the Sino-Soviet split. As early as 1956, Hoxha was sending out feelers to Beijing

But why in heaven’s name would Enver Hoxha wanted to be closer to Beijing than Moscow? PRC is so far away they cannot provide any assistance

 

[kernel]

Something interesting is going on with the Wikipedia article here. It states:

"After the Soviets tried to leave Albania, they were pursued by the Albanian Naval Force and threatened with gunships. During this crisis, a group of Soviets were killed and a Soviet ship was destroyed by the Albanian army.[7]"

The reference is to a webpage in Russian: https://life.ru/p/1427054, but this makes no mention of any Soviet servicemen being killed or any Soviet ship sunk by Albanians. All it says about the events surrounding the base is that the Albanians provoked constant conflicts and fights with Soviet sailors and damaged property and generally made it impossible for the base to operate, eventually resulting in a Soviet withdrawal. I did some brief scanning of Russian sources, and there is no mention of actual armed conflict anywhere.

So while I can see potential for the Soviet-Albanian split to result in some greater level of conflict (though I really doubt a full-on invasion is likely), the Vlore incident may not have been quite as much of a provocation to the USSR as Wikipedia would have.

Interesting. The Wiki article does seem to leave a lot out and overexaggerate some events. I am trying to find out more sources about the incident to see what exactly transpired.

 

[kernel]

I was able to find a source that briefly discusses the events of the Vlora Incident:

From the book The Soviet Naval Threat to Europe: Military and Political Dimensions:

Operating out of Valona, Albania, at first eight, then ten and finally twelve Whiskey attack submarines were staged from the port. These operations were significant in their day and included an impressive naval exercise in the Aegean Sea in 1960. They came to an end in 1961 when, as a result of a falling out between the Soviet Union and Albania, the Soviet Navy was expelled from Valona. The expulsion was particularly unpleasant as the Albanians shot and killed several Soviet sailors and seized some Soviet Whiskey submarines.

So it seems that the incident was violent, although the high seas pursuit as described on the Wikipedia page is most likely Hoxhain and Albanian Nationalist propoganda.

 

[Fearless Leader]

How pillbox'ed was Albania by then? Not thoroughly as it later would be, I think.


This is kind of a poor excuse that seems made up. We're talking about a crisis 18 months later. I think the Soviets had moved on from military punishment or hands-on regime change ideas.

Much as Tito hated that Hoxha guy, don't think he'd like the precedent of a Soviet *successful* Bay of Pigs - so a Hungary, I guess, on the Adriatic.

Hoxha getting whacked by an assassination, I could see him be fine with.

Still, just for the lulz and potential Sino-Soviet implication/complication Ed pointed out, this Albania invasion idea could be fun.

Mao could overreact and be hard to predict. He got sidelined for much of the early 60s over Great Leap Forward failures, but I don't know that he was really deprived of any power by spring/summer 1961. If his reaction, or general Chinese leadership reaction is to go from ideological tension to significant border clashes with the USSR as early as 61-62, that could be serious business. It could add to their troubles along the Indian border, Taiwan Straits, Tibet, the internal famine and sporadic mutinies, and leave the Sino-Soviet border in paranoid, militarily built up spiral earlier. That could make it impossible for Moscow and Beijing to cooperate on aiding North Vietnam (which they amazingly did until about 1970, via Soviet shipments over Chinese rail) or even aid Hanoi at the same time.

Interesting potential ramifications for Vietnam! I'd never considered that before.

But why in heaven’s name would Enver Hoxha wanted to be closer to Beijing than Moscow? PRC is so far away they cannot provide any assistance

China was seen as more authentically communist than Khrushchev. Stalinism in Albania was seen as key to the nation's survival.

 

[lukedalton]

Could we see an Italian force intervening in Albania to preempt a soviet invasion?

Nope, as nobody in Rome, Washington and Bruxelles want to expand the conflict...say that, the Italian Navy and Air Force will monitor very closely the Soviet Task Force and some incident can happen, the army will be mobilizated and there will be diplomatic protest and a lot more trouble for Togliatti.
The italian major worry will be if the conflict expand to include a conflict between the Warsaw Pact and Jugoslavia, in that circumstance I see the italian army in case of imminent Jugoslavian defeat pass the border to create a buffer zone between Italy and occupied Jugoslavia (that will include as much as possible of the original italian inhabitated land is more or less a coincidence)

 

[Monk78]

Interesting potential ramifications for Vietnam! I'd never considered that before.


China was seen as more authentically communist than Khrushchev. Stalinism in Albania was seen as key to the nation's survival.

But china is half a world away and USSR in your neighborhood

 

[Fearless Leader]

But china is half a world away and USSR in your neighborhood

Tito is your "neighbour" and is leading a people that historically wanted to annex your country and wipe your people from the face of the earth. Even though they're technically communist, Albanian memories ran deep. There were real fears that aligning with Khrushchev would pave the way for him to repair the Stalin-Tito split by offering up Albania on a silver platter to Yugoslavia.

Better a friend half a world away than an enemy on your doorstep I suppose.

 

[Monk78]

Tito is your "neighbour" and is leading a people that historically wanted to annex your country and wipe your people from the face of the earth. Even though they're technically communist, Albanian memories ran deep. There were real fears that aligning with Khrushchev would pave the way for him to repair the Stalin-Tito split by offering up Albania on a silver platter to Yugoslavia.

Better a friend half a world away than an enemy on your doorstep I suppose.

If that’s the case, it would have been best if they just joined NATO