What if the Russian Empire didn't sell Alaska?

[Kaiser]

Hello!

I mentioned this idea somewhere else and Alayta wanted to see this as a thread, so here it is: What if the Russian Empire didn't sell Alaska?

This is from the Wikipedia:

At the instigation of U.S. Secretary of State William Seward, the United States Senate approved the purchase of Alaska from Russia for $7,200,000 on 9 April 1867, and the United States flag was raised on 18 October of that same year (now called Alaska Day). The purchase was not popular in the continental United States, where Alaska became known as "Seward's Folly" or "Seward's Icebox".

 

[Norman]

If the USA didn't purchase Alaska when it did, and the Revolution happened when it did, I believe that one of two things would have happened.

1. The USA or Canada would have grabbed it during the Revolution, Perhaps paying some negligible amount to some government in exile.

2. A great big northern 'Russian Taiwan' is formed, in which the original govt would hold Alaska.

It gets iffy when one considers that if Russia hadn't sold Alaska and gold had been discovered there. But we know Russia didn't pay much attentio to Siberia except to drop of their political exiles, so would they not do the same?

 

[Kaiser]

The worst-case-scenario would be: Alaska as a part of the Soviet Union during the entire cold war.
Interesting side-effect: We would probably have the great bridge over the Bering street.

 

[Brilliantlight]

The worst-case-scenario would be: Alaska as a part of the Soviet Union during the entire cold war.
Interesting side-effect: We would probably have the great bridge over the Bering street.

Very unlikely IMO, either us or the Canadians would have grabbed it after the revolution.

 

[Leo Caesius]

1. The USA or Canada would have grabbed it during the Revolution, Perhaps paying some negligible amount to some government in exile.

2. A great big northern 'Russian Taiwan' is formed, in which the original govt would hold Alaska.

Say, why not both? As I understand it, many of the aboriginal populations in the Pacific regions of Alaska are Orthodox, and some of the inhabitants of the Aleutians still speak a Russian pidgin. It's amazing that after nearly 140 years of American dominance and white settlement such cultural ties to Russia still exist.

During the Revolution, the Canadians and/or the Americans could move swiftly to occupy Alaska to keep it from falling into Bolshevik hands. At this point I would imagine that both the US and Canada would have claims to the territory (considering that in OTL Alaska was purchased before Canada became self-governing) and as a result, they might establish some sort of condominium, or even a puppet Russian state headed by whatever remnants of the Romanovs they could scrape up. Naturally the Romanovs couldn't keep Alaska to themselves, so they would have to accept occupation by one or the other power.

 

[Norman]

Say, why not both? As I understand it, many of the aboriginal populations in the Pacific regions of Alaska are Orthodox, and some of the inhabitants of the Aleutians still speak a Russian pidgin. It's amazing that after nearly 140 years of American dominance and white settlement such cultural ties to Russia still exist.

During the Revolution, the Canadians and/or the Americans could move swiftly to occupy Alaska to keep it from falling into Bolshevik hands. At this point I would imagine that both the US and Canada would have claims to the territory (considering that in OTL Alaska was purchased before Canada became self-governing) and as a result, they might establish some sort of condominium, or even a puppet Russian state headed by whatever remnants of the Romanovs they could scrape up. Naturally the Romanovs couldn't keep Alaska to themselves, so they would have to accept occupation by one or the other power.

How about this, the US and Canada agree to guarantee the freedom of Alaska within an early 'free trade zone' with both of them. Both have a sort of 'veto power' over any measures put into place by the Exiled Romanovs, although not so much that Canada ever really disagrees with the US.

A Russian Alaska could then serve as a magnet for those escaping the Russian Revolution, and as a constant reminder that communism might not be the best government, particularly if it becomes prosperous.

 

[LordKalvan]

Abigger, colder taiwan would be an idea. And I agree that a co-dominium between USA and Canada is quite likely. I wonder if Alaska would have been much developed in the 1920s. Even if they had found the gold in Klondike, and when. Alaskan gold revenues could have been a big boost for Russia

 

[JLCook]

How about Japan tries to annex Alaska in 1904?

Japan defeated Russia in a Pacific War in that year. Part of the incentive for Japan to war with Russia was the Russian enclave at Tsing Ysao, but Alaska would be significantly MORE desireable to Japan than a small German "colony" in China!

Of course, for Japan to have a possession in continental North America would definately set of the Unityed States and the Monroe Doctrine, so there could easily be a US-Japan war in 1905!

Russia, by 1905 would be thoroughly incapable of defending Alaska, so the possibility of a "worst case scenario" of there being a SOVIET Alaska seems highly unlikely.

 

[raharris1973]

Ideas

Here's one issue- With Russia in Alaska longer, anything that makes
it more attractive for Canada or the USA to take over, like the discovery of gold, also
makes it more attractive for the Russians to hold onto.

Also, after about 1880 imperialistic pride became all the rage.
That's when all the major powers carved up the globe. The Tsarist's
will not accept an ultimatum after that point, simply out of pride.
The Canadians or Americans after this time will have to pry Alaska out
of their hands by war, if they want it bad enough.

Further. while Alaska is weakly held, I'm not sure it was possible for
it to be more weakly held than Spanish Cuba, in military terms.



The Wilsonian solution is an independent Alaskan state, or one that
claims to be Russian. Accession to Canada violates Monroe Doctribne
and US can stop it. If Wilson is being true to character, he won't
take it for the US. Additionally, Canadians will realize that an
independent Alaska is the only alternative to the US taking it, so
they will support the "White Alaska" solution of an independent non-Boleshevik
republic.

 

[RatCatcher]

I think that Raharris1973 is right.
Of cource the first 20 years Alaska will not become "Russian Taiwan" but after WW2 and begginnig of the Cold War it could become an USA ally. It could obtain help and investments from the US, same as real Taiwan and Israel.

To Norman:
"But we know Russia didn't pay much attentio to Siberia except to drop of their political exiles, so would they not do the same?"

It is not exactly right. At the second half of XIX century Russian goverment did pay big attention to Siberia and Eastern regions, especially after Transsiberian railway has been built. So, Russian goverment would pay some attention to Alaska if they found gold there...

 

[Brilliantlight]

I think that Raharris1973 is right.
Of cource the first 20 years Alaska will not become "Russian Taiwan" but after WW2 and begginnig of the Cold War it could become an USA ally. It could obtain help and investments from the US, same as real Taiwan and Israel.

To Norman:
"But we know Russia didn't pay much attentio to Siberia except to drop of their political exiles, so would they not do the same?"

It is not exactly right. At the second half of XIX century Russian goverment did pay big attention to Siberia and Eastern regions, especially after Transsiberian railway has been built. So, Russian goverment would pay some attention to Alaska if they found gold there...

But what could they do about it if the US wanted to grab it? Even by the 1880s the US navy was more powerful then the Russian one.

 

[Peter]

Very unlikely IMO, either us or the Canadians would have grabbed it after the revolution.

Since that would have justified continued Japanese occupation of Russian Far East I'm not so sure.

 

[Grey Wolf]

But what could they do about it if the US wanted to grab it? Even by the 1880s the US navy was more powerful then the Russian one.

Did you really just say that about the US Navy ???

Grey Wolf

 

[Grimm Reaper]

The United States annexes Alaska in the aftermath of WWI, if not sooner. To achieve this we agree that Japan can claim certain portions of Siberia as well, perhaps the rest of Sakhalin Island and the Kamchatka Penninsula.

 

[Leo Caesius]

raharris is right, you know - for the US to annex Alaska right after WWI you'd have to get rid of Wilson. It wouldn't do for the US to be agitating for a partition of Turkey and Austria while gobbling up Russian colonies (with, by this point one assumes, a sizable Russian and Orthodox population). At most, I could see the US occupying it and declaring some sort of American "mandate" over it ex post facto, possibly with an eye towards self-determination at some point in the not-too-distant future.

The right time to annex it would come under the McKinley administration, although I can't see the US justifying a war against Russia at that time. Even then, it might become a Russian Philippines or Cuba, if the Russians have been settling it extensively or assimilating the natives. Furthermore, we run up against the Canadians - they became self-governing just as Seward purchased Alaska in OTL. If they had already been self-governing for several decades, they might decide to stake their own claim.

 

[Brilliantlight]

Did you really just say that about the US Navy ???

Grey Wolf

The Russian navy is and always has been a joke. At one time the Russians hire John Paul Jones as their top naval commander. That's right, they had to go all the way across the ocean to what was a second or third rate power at the time to get a decent admiral.

 

[Norman]

raharris is right, you know - for the US to annex Alaska right after WWI you'd have to get rid of Wilson. It wouldn't do for the US to be agitating for a partition of Turkey and Austria while gobbling up Russian colonies (with, by this point one assumes, a sizable Russian and Orthodox population). At most, I could see the US occupying it and declaring some sort of American "mandate" over it ex post facto, possibly with an eye towards self-determination at some point in the not-too-distant future.

The right time to annex it would come under the McKinley administration, although I can't see the US justifying a war against Russia at that time. Even then, it might become a Russian Philippines or Cuba, if the Russians have been settling it extensively or assimilating the natives. Furthermore, we run up against the Canadians - they became self-governing just as Seward purchased Alaska in OTL. If they had already been self-governing for several decades, they might decide to stake their own claim.

Maybe it is annexed or purchased as an aftermath of a Russo-Japanese War that is won by the Japanese in order to keep it out of the hands of the Japanese. Say around 1905 - 7?

 

[Admiral Matt]

"The Russian navy is and always has been a joke. At one time the Russians hire John Paul Jones as their top naval commander. That's right, they had to go all the way across the ocean to what was a second or third rate power at the time to get a decent admiral."

They may not have had admirals, but the US didn't have the actual ocean-going ships common to modern navies. Advantage Russia.

 

[Phoenix]

"The Russian navy is and always has been a joke. At one time the Russians hire John Paul Jones as their top naval commander. That's right, they had to go all the way across the ocean to what was a second or third rate power at the time to get a decent admiral."

They may not have had admirals, but the US didn't have the actual ocean-going ships common to modern navies. Advantage Russia.

Yeah, the US Navy was mostly coastal monitors at that point, with I think had around 6 ocean-going cruisers in commision.

Most of the South American nations at that time had navies larger than that of the States, and couldhave easily destroyed it.

 

[Valamyr]

Accession to Canada violates Monroe Doctribne
and US can stop it.

No, I dont think so... The Monroe Doctrine only applied to countries outside the Americas. Otherwise, any war in the Americas would have been a violation of the Monroe doctrine...