What if the Habsburgs didn't inherit Spain and Bohemia-Hungary?

As you all know, the Habsburgs sold their soul to the devil to roll nat 20s in the 15th and early 16th century which got them Burgundy, Spain and Bohemia&Hungary.

Now what if they only inherited Burgundy but not the others?

This can be achieved survive by having Joannas brother John or Miguel da Paz, her nephew, survive longer and make heirs of their own. A surviving house of Trastamara alone already has a huge impact on history. For one, Spain would most likely not bankrupt itself fighting the Dutch. What would Spain do with all that wealth if not fight the Dutch? What would their relations to France look like? Would they still fight each other over Italy?

To keep Bohemia and Hungary out of the claws of the Habsburgs Louis II would have to survive too. Since the Jagiellons would rule over a vast empire in central eastern Europe and Bohemia would still be part of the HRE, could a Holy Roman Emperor be a Jagiellon? Could a strong Poland-Lithuania-Bohemia-Hungary (PLBH) stand against Muscovite expansion? Could a strong PLBH even expand into Muscovy?

The Habsburgs without the resources of the Spanish empire and wealth of Bohemia-Hungary would be seriously deprived. However, it would also take a huge burden off of their shoulders as Poland-Lithuania-Bohemia-Hungary could be a buffer between them and the Ottomans. PLBH, Spain and Austria-Burgundy could coordinate an alliance against the Ottomans.
So the only threat the Austrians would have is France, Venice and the reformation.
Can the Habsburgs defend against the French without Spanish resources and the wealth of Bohemia-Hungary?

I believe the Habsburgs and the Jagiellons would be on good terms and France couldn't use them against the Habsburgs since otherwise PLBH would be surrounded by enemies. Both the Habsburgs and PLBH would have an interest of not making an enemy out of each other. The English would be another natural ally for Austria-Burgundy as both don't want the French to become too powerful.
 

Grey Wolf

Donor
I suppose the main question is what is happening with the Reformation? Are we assuming England does not go Protestant, due to different European politics? If they don't, then even if the Dutch do, there is much less chance of the Dutch surviving a Habsburg crushing
 
I suppose the main question is what is happening with the Reformation? Are we assuming England does not go Protestant, due to different European politics? If they don't, then even if the Dutch do, there is much less chance of the Dutch surviving a Habsburg crushing

I don't think that a Dutch revolt will even happen to the scale that it did OTL. It certainly won't become a 80-year long quagmire.
 
I suppose the main question is what is happening with the Reformation? Are we assuming England does not go Protestant, due to different European politics? If they don't, then even if the Dutch do, there is much less chance of the Dutch surviving a Habsburg crushing
The main question is a bit all over the place since the Habsburgs not inheriting Spain and Bohemia-Hungary would have far reaching knock on effects on all of Europe. There's countless threads of the Habsburgs not inheriting either Spain or Bohemia-Hungary but not both. The reformation as we know it may not happen at all or more accurately there's the possibility that we'll end up with a entirely protestant Kingdom of Germany.
The Habsburgs would move their capital to the richer low lands no doubt about it, but as such, they could also easily convert to protestantism. Converting would do them a favour as a protestant HRE wouldn't need to appease the pope anymore though this may or may not result in the Holy Roman Empire not being the HRE no longer. Though the reformation is not guaranteed to be aided by the Habsburgs converting as a reason as to why some princes converted was to weaken the growing imperial power.

However, since Charles V or whatever Habsburg comes after Philip the Fair ITTL wouldn't have to divert his attention to Bohemia+Hungary and the Ottomans as well as Spain and its empire, would he have annexed Julich-Cleves-Berg during the Guelders wars? JCB was a wealthy territory and would have expanded the power base of the Habsburgs in northern Germany by a lot. Also, the territories border right next to the Habsburgs Netherlands so it would be continous too.

Since the Habsburg would probably be protestant, could they start their religious war earlier and use it as an excuse to start secularizing church property since most of the catholic league were pretty much only south German prince bishoprics and Bavaria?
Furthermore, if Ernest of Bavaria succeeds in uniting the bishoprics of Liege and Munster under him as he did IOTL and he'd still be as staunchly catholic as he was IOTL, it would certainly be a point of contention with the neighboring protestant Habsburg Netherlands.

Would the anti-French alliance with Spain end once the Habsburgs convert?
Would England be interested in engaging in an alliance with the Habsburgs to keep France from expanding?
I don't think that a Dutch revolt will even happen to the scale that it did OTL. It certainly won't become a 80-year long quagmire.
The Dutch will certainly revolt. They always have. Under Charles the Bold, Charles V and Joseph I they revolted the moment their rulers tried to centralize and revoke some of the generous privileges granted to them. AFAIK only Charles V was able to reorganize the low lands into the 17 provinces. Though a ruler born a Netherlander and of protestant faith would give them a whole lot fewer reasons to rebel.
 
The Dutch will certainly revolt. They always have. Under Charles the Bold, Charles V and Joseph I they revolted the moment their rulers tried to centralize and revoke some of the generous privileges granted to them. AFAIK only Charles V was able to reorganize the low lands into the 17 provinces. Though a ruler born a Netherlander and of protestant faith would give them a whole lot fewer reasons to rebel.

I don't think a protestant ruler is even needed - many of the southern provinces still had a catholic majority even before the revolt.
 
A surviving house of Trastamara alone already has a huge impact on history. For one, Spain would most likely not bankrupt itself fighting the Dutch. What would Spain do with all that wealth if not fight the Dutch? What would their relations to France look like? Would they still fight each other over Italy?

Trastamara Spain will definitely get remain engaged in Italy, they have been involved in Sicily since 1409 and that isn't going to change. More broadly I think the American gold will be spent fairly similarly to how it was spent in OTL; churches and monasteries in Spain and fighting heretics and infidels abroad, but in the absence of the Netherlands even more will be spent fighting the Ottoman's in the Med plus more attacks on North Africa which will probably go as badly as OTL.
 
As you all know, the Habsburgs sold their soul to the devil to roll nat 20s in the 15th and early 16th century which got them Burgundy, Spain and Bohemia&Hungary.

Now what if they only inherited Burgundy but not the others?

This can be achieved survive by having Joannas brother John or Miguel da Paz, her nephew, survive longer and make heirs of their own. A surviving house of Trastamara alone already has a huge impact on history. For one, Spain would most likely not bankrupt itself fighting the Dutch. What would Spain do with all that wealth if not fight the Dutch? What would their relations to France look like? Would they still fight each other over Italy?

To keep Bohemia and Hungary out of the claws of the Habsburgs Louis II would have to survive too. Since the Jagiellons would rule over a vast empire in central eastern Europe and Bohemia would still be part of the HRE, could a Holy Roman Emperor be a Jagiellon? Could a strong Poland-Lithuania-Bohemia-Hungary (PLBH) stand against Muscovite expansion? Could a strong PLBH even expand into Muscovy?

The Habsburgs without the resources of the Spanish empire and wealth of Bohemia-Hungary would be seriously deprived. However, it would also take a huge burden off of their shoulders as Poland-Lithuania-Bohemia-Hungary could be a buffer between them and the Ottomans. PLBH, Spain and Austria-Burgundy could coordinate an alliance against the Ottomans.
So the only threat the Austrians would have is France, Venice and the reformation.
Can the Habsburgs defend against the French without Spanish resources and the wealth of Bohemia-Hungary?

I believe the Habsburgs and the Jagiellons would be on good terms and France couldn't use them against the Habsburgs since otherwise PLBH would be surrounded by enemies. Both the Habsburgs and PLBH would have an interest of not making an enemy out of each other. The English would be another natural ally for Austria-Burgundy as both don't want the French to become too powerful.
This has several far reaching consequences but here's a few:
1-An Austria much more focused on defending the HRE from internal and external threats, this would most likely mean a more intense early religious wars as the Habsburgs attempt to curry favor with the Pope as well other Catholic rulers in the HRE and beyond, this would also tie in with centralization methods that are bound to spark controversy and outright revolts by certain electors, whether the Habsburgs can manage to make the HRE bend the knee or if they will result in Austria loosing face and maybe even the next election as the individual nobles manage to resist it well depends on the ruler as well as other factors.

We'll also see the Hapsburgs taking a role much like OTL Poland-Lithuania where they'll participate in Holy Leagues against the Ottomans and even start a few wars themselves, especially if Hungary manages to survive, but they won't be pushing deep into the Balkans like OTL, leaving that to either the Poles, Russians or a surviving Hungary or maybe even Venice.

2-France will still be an enemy of the Habsburgs as they would want the Burgundian Inheritance above all else, so we would see wars between them and whatever Anti French coalition the Austrians can make(most likely involving England and some Rhine states) pretty often, although I think in the long run the Habsburgs would lose the Netherlands to the French in a century simply because they can't compete with them, especially if France doesn't go into a Religious turned Succession War(either by going full protestant or managing to destroy them before they grow too powerful). Italy would also be another battleground but I see the Italian wars ending with France controlling Milan and keeping Savoy and Genoa under their thumbs while being allied with Venice while Central Italy is in the orbit of Rome(who plays off everyone against each other to ensure peace) and Naples and Sicily being under Spanish rule. In general France will have a much better time here than they did in OTL.

3-England most likely doesn't go Protestant ITTL and we'll most likely see a Gallican type Catholic England where the King appoints Bishops and Priests as he wills it, the country won't have the beef with Spain from OTL for a multitude of reasons but I still see them getting away from continental affairs and focusing on trade, using their alliance with Portugal to help them get into the East Asian market.


4-Spain will have a better time from OTL, mainly because it won't be used as a piggy bank for the Habsburgs nor send it's soldiers towards fighting in Europe, they will most likely contribute towards fighting off the Ottomans at sea and try and take over the western Maghreb and morocco(call it the "Reconquista of Carthage"), while they would fight France to defend their Italian possessions, they won't be involved in the same continues wars against them, so they'll have a decent if tense relationship as they will have no real reason to fight against one another except for maybe Navarre. There will still be massive inflation of silver and gold from OTL as well as spending in the military and navy but it will be much better used too, expect a richer Spain at the very minimum.

5-Depending on the Ottomans end up fighting against, they will have an easier or more difficult time, but they will be stronger than OTL for a while more.

6-The Netherlands will most likely end up French in the long run and I only see a Calvinist revolt happening them if the French are still Catholic, a regular revolt if the French are protestant because they would loathe the centralization policies of the kings or if the Habsburgs would manage to crush the Calvinists early on, they would probably be weaker and unable to resist their French invaders. Either way, expect to see it ruled by Paris and part of the Royal lands.
 
What would Spanish America be like without Habsburg administration? The Spain of the Philippes played a crucial role in the governance of the colonies, and that would be altered in this scenario. Additionally, the history of Portugal would also change, as the Iberian Union would probably not occur.

I know this wasn't the main focus of the discussion, but I considered it interesting to add these questions for a better exploration of this scenario.
 
What would Spanish America be like without Habsburg administration? The Spain of the Philippes played a crucial role in the governance of the colonies, and that would be altered in this scenario. Additionally, the history of Portugal would also change, as the Iberian Union would probably not occur.

I know this wasn't the main focus of the discussion, but I considered it interesting to add these questions for a better exploration of this scenario.

I think there's still a possibility of it ocurring - the diplomatic bent of a Trastámara Spain within the Iberian peninsula is not likely to be different from OTL.

I thought of this scenario; on the other hand, what flag would (ATL) Spain use, given that the Cross of Burgundy is usually associate with the Hapsburgs.

I think this pennant might last longer:


364px-Pend%C3%B3n_her%C3%A1ldico_de_los_Reyes_Catolicos_de_1475-1492.svg.png
 
As you all know, the Habsburgs sold their soul to the devil to roll nat 20s in the 15th and early 16th century which got them Burgundy, Spain and Bohemia&Hungary.
What? If anything they were more pious Catholic than the Pope... Burgundy, well Maximilian just married the duchess regnant, in accord to a marriage contract. Castille-Aragon and Bohemia-Hungary were both the result of a double marriage, though only the latter was actually the result of an active dynastic policy.
Now what if they only inherited Burgundy but not the others?
That's interesting though, no direct access to Spanish support, no Habsburg vote on the Electoral College of the Empire, OTOH no OTL Dutch Revolt, if any either, Brussels will be the De Facto capitol of the Empire.
 
What would Spanish America be like without Habsburg administration? The Spain of the Philippes played a crucial role in the governance of the colonies, and that would be altered in this scenario. Additionally, the history of Portugal would also change, as the Iberian Union would probably not occur.

I know this wasn't the main focus of the discussion, but I considered it interesting to add these questions for a better exploration of this scenario.
The Americas would still be used as a source of wealth like any colony would, with the money still ending up in the army and navy to combat the Ottomans at sea and land and to expand into the Maghreb, not to mention defending their Italian possessions when the war in Italy happens. Otherwise expect the money to end up going to religious orders, building monasteries and infrastructure and such, even without the Habsburgs, the Americas are too valuable to not continue being extracted upon so Spain can have it's coffers full, especially if they're participating in things like the Holy League at sea and at land.
 
I don't think a protestant ruler is even needed - many of the southern provinces still had a catholic majority even before the revolt.
How would the reformation be resolved then? Through catholic reforms or by stamping out protestantism anywhere it arises?
Without the English intervention, certainly not
Would the English become protestant or will the remain catholic?
Trastamara Spain will definitely get remain engaged in Italy, they have been involved in Sicily since 1409 and that isn't going to change. More broadly I think the American gold will be spent fairly similarly to how it was spent in OTL; churches and monasteries in Spain and fighting heretics and infidels abroad, but in the absence of the Netherlands even more will be spent fighting the Ottoman's in the Med plus more attacks on North Africa which will probably go as badly as OTL.
Would Spain be fighting in the Italian wars as rigorously as it did IOTL without a having to fight for Habsburg interests in northern Italy? Not allowing the French to gain power in northern Italy which they used to invade Sicily would make keeping the French out a Spanish priority too.
With Charles V could start centralizing Austria and Burgundy as Maximilian I intended. One such opportunity would be integrating Wurttemberg into Austria thereby connecting Austrian Alsace and Franche Comte to Austria proper. This would be very interesting when Ulrich tries to reconquer it with the help of Philip of Hesse who was part of the Schmalkaldic League. The Schmalkaldic wars may very well be butterflied away with a Habsburg monarch that only has to care about the HRE and France and is thus able to keep the Swabian league together. The Swabian League could become an anti-protestant alliance. It already included some of the most important catholic states in the HRE such as Bavaria, Mainz, Trier, Baden and the Palatinate. An emperor that only has to focus his energy on the HRE and France, could invite Cologne and use the league as a tool to root out protestantism.
Charles V could seize the opportunity to secularize more church property while he had the pope in his bag as he did with the bishopric of Utrecht. The bishoprics of Liege, Munster, Salzburg or simply the small ones dotted all throughout the Swabian circle would make a nice addition to Austria-Burgundys power base. Liege and or Munster could be secularized under the dodgy pretense that they helped William the Rich in the Guelders war.

I'm not too sure about the Habsburgs losing the Netherlands to France. After all, Philip the Fair marrying Isabella was the confirmation of the anti-French alliance by their respective houses. Both sides didn't want to see a strong France so while ITTL the Spanish might not go to great lengths to save the Habsburgs bacon, they wouldn't simply abandon them either especially if it means France will grow in strength even more.
In addition to that, the Dutch were able to become a dominant trading and sea power while fighting the Spanish. Granted, fighting the Spanish whose logistics were severely strained by having to use the Spanish road is different than fighting the European super power right at your doorstep but the Dutch still held strong against the Spanish who wasted enormous amounts of treasure on this bloody conflict with nothing to show for it.
While Austria-Burgundy would only have 35% the population of France at that time (if we include Julich-Cleves-Berg and Wurttemberg), it would still be wealthy enough to buy Swiss and German mercenaries, especially when it gets into the overseas trade.
It is certain that a united Netherlands under the Habsburgs will become a trading power likely even more so than IOTL since geography and the naval tradition of the Netherlands pretty much dictate it. But it will also become one much earlier than IOTL without having to wait for the Dutch revolt first. Who knows maybe TTL New Netherland will not just be for the fur trade but it may include a penal colony where protestants and other rebels will be exiled.
 
Charles V would likely still exist even with a surviving Trastamara as the marriage of Philip the fair to Joanna was a part of the Spanish-Habsburg alliance. But who would he marry? I don't think he is required to marry the Portuguese princess Isabella for the Habsburgs to keep their anti-French alliance with Spain.

A possible contender might be Mary Tudor. She was initially betrothed to Charles V in 1507. They were meant to marry in 1514 but didn't as Wolsey married her off to Louis XII in exchange for peace with France. Maximilian allowing his granddaughter- in-laws brother Henry VIII to keep what is captured in northern France, it might be enough to keep England in the war and to keep England involved on the continent and ensure its participation in future wars against the French.

Another possible contender might be Mary I of England, Henry VIII's daughter who wanted to marry Charles but got his son instead. Both don't want to see a strong France. If Mary ending up Queen of England isn't butterflied away, this would result in a Anglo-Habsburg union. Even if the Habsburgs don't end up inheriting England through Mary, the Anglo-Habsburg alliance would still be strong enough to keep France busy.
 
The Americas would still be used as a source of wealth like any colony would, with the money still ending up in the army and navy to combat the Ottomans at sea and land and to expand into the Maghreb, not to mention defending their Italian possessions when the war in Italy happens. Otherwise expect the money to end up going to religious orders, building monasteries and infrastructure and such, even without the Habsburgs, the Americas are too valuable to not continue being extracted upon so Spain can have it's coffers full, especially if they're participating in things like the Holy League at sea and at land.
Would conquering the Maghreb even be possible? Spain and Portugal tried to IOTL and there would be more resources available if they're not entangled in the Netherlands but Morocco and Algeria had populations in the millions at that time with quite a few of them being Muslims and Jews who were kicked out of Iberia. This wouldn't be like like Castille annexing Granada since it only had a few hundred thousand people left. Also, would the Ottomans stand idly by? If not, would Spain ally itself to Poland for an anti-Ottoman alliance?
Assuming Spain somehow pulls it off, would being in possession of the trans-Saharan trade routes make a difference or would it not matter since sea routes have already been established? Was Spain even allowed to use the sea routes for the trade with Africa after the treaty of Tordesillas or will the trans-Saharan trade routes be a substitute for it?
 
The main question is a bit all over the place since the Habsburgs not inheriting Spain and Bohemia-Hungary would have far reaching knock on effects on all of Europe. There's countless threads of the Habsburgs not inheriting either Spain or Bohemia-Hungary but not both. The reformation as we know it may not happen at all or more accurately there's the possibility that we'll end up with a entirely protestant Kingdom of Germany.
The Habsburgs would move their capital to the richer low lands no doubt about it, but as such, they could also easily convert to protestantism. Converting would do them a favour as a protestant HRE wouldn't need to appease the pope anymore though this may or may not result in the Holy Roman Empire not being the HRE no longer. Though the reformation is not guaranteed to be aided by the Habsburgs converting as a reason as to why some princes converted was to weaken the growing imperial power.

However, since Charles V or whatever Habsburg comes after Philip the Fair ITTL wouldn't have to divert his attention to Bohemia+Hungary and the Ottomans as well as Spain and its empire, would he have annexed Julich-Cleves-Berg during the Guelders wars? JCB was a wealthy territory and would have expanded the power base of the Habsburgs in northern Germany by a lot. Also, the territories border right next to the Habsburgs Netherlands so it would be continous too.

Since the Habsburg would probably be protestant, could they start their religious war earlier and use it as an excuse to start secularizing church property since most of the catholic league were pretty much only south German prince bishoprics and Bavaria?
Furthermore, if Ernest of Bavaria succeeds in uniting the bishoprics of Liege and Munster under him as he did IOTL and he'd still be as staunchly catholic as he was IOTL, it would certainly be a point of contention with the neighboring protestant Habsburg Netherlands.

Would the anti-French alliance with Spain end once the Habsburgs convert?
Would England be interested in engaging in an alliance with the Habsburgs to keep France from expanding?

The Dutch will certainly revolt. They always have. Under Charles the Bold, Charles V and Joseph I they revolted the moment their rulers tried to centralize and revoke some of the generous privileges granted to them. AFAIK only Charles V was able to reorganize the low lands into the 17 provinces. Though a ruler born a Netherlander and of protestant faith would give them a whole lot fewer reasons to rebel.

Keep in mind that by the time of revolt in the Netherlands (c. 1569), Calvinists only comprised 10% of the Dutch population. After the Dutch blew off a good deal of their socio-religio-political steam in the Beeldenstorm, Habsburg restrictions on Protestantism were actually yielding gradual results, and Protestantism was actually in decline in the Netherlands by the 1550s. Overall the Protestant ascendancy in the Netherlands was a peculiar development, and (besides from genuine conviction) can mostly be chalked up to the Dutch Calvinists being the most outspoken supporters of independence, which in turn led to William the Silent's public conversion to Calvinism, giving Calvinism the prestige and hierarchical assent it needed for widespread conversions to follow. The Dutch revolt was also sparked in part by the introduction of the Inquisition, which was a specifically Spanish invention (wherever the Inquisition existed its primary enemy was the nobility, who resented the notion of being arrested and charged for any reason).

In regards to the Habsburgs going Protestant, the issue is that Charles V (and of course Philip II) had a personal devotion to Catholicism that was very pious even by the standards of the time - he attended Mass at least twice every day. Likewise, the office of Holy Roman Emperor is tied to Catholicism in a similar way to the monarchy of France, and we all know about how the Catholicity of the latter prevented a Protestant monarchy in France. That's not to say any of his descendants won't become Protestant, however, as we know Rudolf von Habsburg was famously ambivalent towards Catholicism.
 
Would conquering the Maghreb even be possible? Spain and Portugal tried to IOTL and there would be more resources available if they're not entangled in the Netherlands but Morocco and Algeria had populations in the millions at that time with quite a few of them being Muslims and Jews who were kicked out of Iberia. This wouldn't be like like Castille annexing Granada since it only had a few hundred thousand people left. Also, would the Ottomans stand idly by? If not, would Spain ally itself to Poland for an anti-Ottoman alliance?
Assuming Spain somehow pulls it off, would being in possession of the trans-Saharan trade routes make a difference or would it not matter since sea routes have already been established? Was Spain even allowed to use the sea routes for the trade with Africa after the treaty of Tordesillas or will the trans-Saharan trade routes be a substitute for it?
Neither Spain more Portugal made a concerted effort to conquer the Maghreb - at least, not using all of the resources available to them in regards to Portugal
 
Keep in mind that by the time of revolt in the Netherlands (c. 1569), Calvinists only comprised 10% of the Dutch population. After the Dutch blew off a good deal of their socio-religio-political steam in the Beeldenstorm, Habsburg restrictions on Protestantism were actually yielding gradual results, and Protestantism was actually in decline in the Netherlands by the 1550s. Overall the Protestant ascendancy in the Netherlands was a peculiar development, and (besides from genuine conviction) can mostly be chalked up to the Dutch Calvinists being the most outspoken supporters of independence, which in turn led to William the Silent's public conversion to Calvinism, giving Calvinism the prestige and hierarchical assent it needed for widespread conversions to follow. The Dutch revolt was also sparked in part by the introduction of the Inquisition, which was a specifically Spanish invention (wherever the Inquisition existed its primary enemy was the nobility, who resented the notion of being arrested and charged for any reason).

In regards to the Habsburgs going Protestant, the issue is that Charles V (and of course Philip II) had a personal devotion to Catholicism that was very pious even by the standards of the time - he attended Mass at least twice every day. Likewise, the office of Holy Roman Emperor is tied to Catholicism in a similar way to the monarchy of France, and we all know about how the Catholicity of the latter prevented a Protestant monarchy in France. That's not to say any of his descendants won't become Protestant, however, as we know Rudolf von Habsburg was famously ambivalent towards Catholicism.
So it's safe to say the Netherlands and by extent the Habsburgs will stay catholic? Makes sense considering if they did go protestant, all the catholic German states would look to France as a leader. How would they react to the reformation? Would catholicism itself have to adress the issues by the protestants or would they choose force? Could Charles V secularize church property while being catholic? I read that Philip I of Hesse multiplied his revenues by secularizing church property.
Neither Spain more Portugal made a concerted effort to conquer the Maghreb - at least, not using all of the resources available to them in regards to Portugal
Maybe not a concerted effort but individually I was under the impression both did try to expand in the Maghreb. In case of Portugal it was the battle of the three kings that ended their aspirations in North Africa. And in case of Spain, it did try to occupy Algiers sometime in the 16th century.
 
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