What if the Great Powers didn't insist on Albania's indepedence/ What if Macedonia became independent earlier?

[Phradmon]

It might be known to the public that the the original intention of the Balkan League in the first balkan war was to divide the remaining territories of Turkey in Europe between themselves. However, their plans were upset when the Great Powers insisted on giving Albania independence.
Thus, I ask what would have happened if two of these situations happened:
1. Either the Great Powers simply considered that the Ottoman Empire has it's writing on the wall, and let the balkanic states to share the corpse as they wish
2.Or, intervening even more, they decide that these balkanic states would be dangerous if left to expand, and, beside forcing the case for an independent Albania, they push for a multiethnic, Macedonian independent state
These two situations are completely separate, but i decided to ask them together for sake of simplicity

 

[Phradmon]

For sake of simplicity i think that for the second scenario they would have went with this map

 

[33k7]

British Greek relations are too good for this to happen not to mention this is just pouring gasoline on the Balkan crisis

 

[Deleted member 94680]

Austria-Hungary and Italy strongly supported the creation of an independent Albania. In part, this was consistent with Austria-Hungary's previous policy of resisting Serb expansion to the Adriatic; Italy had designs on the territory, manifested in 1939. Russia supported Serbia and Montenegro. Germany and Britain remained neutral. The balance of power struck between the members of the Balkan League had been on the assumption that no Albanian polity would be formed and Albanian territory would be split between them.

Great Powers > Balkan League

 

[Phradmon]

Austria-Hungary and Italy strongly supported the creation of an independent Albania. In part, this was consistent with Austria-Hungary's previous policy of resisting Serb expansion to the Adriatic; Italy had designs on the territory, manifested in 1939. Russia supported Serbia and Montenegro. Germany and Britain remained neutral. The balance of power struck between the members of the Balkan League had been on the assumption that no Albanian polity would be formed and Albanian territory would be split between them.

Great Powers > Balkan League

Well, that's what happened OTL. . I was asking what would have happened if it didn't went like otl (either no albania, or beside it, a macedonia)

 

[Deleted member 94680]

Well, that's what happened OTL. . I was asking what would have happened if it didn't went like otl (either no albania, or beside it, a macedonia)

Albania was partly created as a sop to Great Power ambitions and partly as a buffer between competing Balkan powers. It’s long coastline and German Prince signalled that it would be defended by the Powers if the Balkan nations tried to claim it.

To have no Albania or an Independent Macedonia you have to have the Great Powers act completely differently or have different desires for the Balkan region. These are complicated PoDs to achieve.

Macedonia was seen as a region that was desired by the three bordering Balkan nations (Serbia, Greece and Bulgaria) and they all laid claim to the whole region. To make a Macedonia that stood on its own would be to make a battleground in the next Balkan War or to make a weak nation that would require Great Power protection to survive. It was easier (to the chancelleries of the Great Powers) to divide up the region and allow each to have at least some of what they wanted.

 

[Karelian]

Number one is more or less OTL - Montenegrin and Greek control of malisor highlands was bound to be troublesome. No one endeavoured complete annexation, just access to the sea via Albanian territories like Skutari (Montenegrins and Serbs), or partial annexation like the Greeks.

The Ottomans were too stubborn and proud to further divide the Balkan states by promoting Macedonian nationalism when the idea of nationhood was being introduced to the locals via propaganda and at gunpoint.

The clerical dispute and the Bulgarian schism offered a real chance to promote a separate Macedonian linguistical identity, but naturally this is all hindsight.

 

[Grey Wolf]

The Greeks got Salonika because they got there first

If the Bulgarians get there first, then you could trade it for the coast they got OTL (Kavalla) plus Adrianople

I still think the Second Balkan War would see everybody pile on Macedonia and it's going to be relying on whatever allies it can get - the Turks?

But I think it is possible you can get it for a short time at least in 1912

 

[Germaniac]

The only way I can see an independent "Macedonia", with a POD after 1900, would be if the counter-revolution in the Ottoman Empire (in 1909) devolved into a civil war. I could imagine a constitutional government based in Salonika becoming, at least de facto if not de jure, independent of an absolutist government in Istanbul. I don't believe either could survive very long though before the regions are broken up by the Balkan states and the Great powers.