What if Spain didn't bother with the New World?

[Deleted member 93645]

The Spanish Empire was of course, the first colonial power in the New World.

But what if Ferdinand and Isabella didn't pay any mind to that crackpot Columbus, and instead focused on European politics, the end of the Reconquista, and the southern trade route around Africa?

Even if you assume that Columbus goes elsewhere to finance his idea of a western route to "India", or some random explorer stumbles upon Newfoundland, would there be any guarantee that Spain in particular conquers the Aztecs and Incas?

What if Spain jumped in the colonial game late or very late, and grabbed bits and pieces like the Netherlands did? How would this affect the Habsburg empire, if it would even form in the same way that it did?

 

[LordTerra]

Well I imagine the Spanish Empire isn't going to anywhere near as rich without all the gold, silver and other resources flowing out of the Americas into Spain.

However on the flip side Spain doesn't have to deal with the inflation that was a crippling blow and was a downturn of the Spanish Empire. With this change Naples and Portugal may stay in Spain's orbit and if it still happens the rebellious island of Corsica goes it Spain instead of France.

Alliance wise Spain could end up with an alliance with France, England/GB/UK(depends on events in the isles) or Austria for various reasons. This Spain would heavily affected the powerbalance and alliance systems in Europe, though it wouldn't be the superpower of OTL.

 

[Thanksforallthefish]

It is a very real possiblity that the Incas and the Aztecs (or at least Mesoamerican city-states) survive European contact. Spanish Conquistadores had an amazing amount of luck, and not only because of disease; they just appeared at the right time (civil war in the Inca's case, for example). It is well into the realm of possibility that they would remain independent, or at least be folded into suzerainty later instead of outright conquest.

Without a power monopolizing silver and gold trade, the economic makeup of Europe would be massively changed. I'm not sure how would this affect an ATL Reformation (I think the Catholic Church was headed that way already, though I'm not sure). I could see Spain marching into North Africa, but I don't see it as a very worthwhile enterprise. Maybe they could attack the Ottomans instead? With the mindset of the Reconquista burning into their minds, and a lack of interest/opportunity of conquering the American Natives, maybe another Crusade would seem appealing.

 

[Derek Pullem]

The obvious next step after Andalusia would be Morroco. Not easy but with Portugal and Spain aligned I would not bet against the Iberians, particularly after naval dominance is achieved (assuming that Lepanto or something like it still occurs)

After Morocco the lure of Songhai and Timbutu might to too great - so instead of silver inflation Spain may end up with a trans-Saharan empire and gold inflation.

Driving the Ottomans out of Tunis might be too much given the other European issues occurring at the same time - however the forces aimed at Italy would be in a much better positions to defend any gains in North Africa if required.

A Mediterranean focused Spain would be very interesting - maybe seeking to create their Mare Nostrum and/or recreate the glory that was Rome.

 

[John7755 يوحنا]

It is a very real possiblity that the Incas and the Aztecs (or at least Mesoamerican city-states) survive European contact. Spanish Conquistadores had an amazing amount of luck, and not only because of disease; they just appeared at the right time (civil war in the Inca's case, for example). It is well into the realm of possibility that they would remain independent, or at least be folded into suzerainty later instead of outright conquest.

Without a power monopolizing silver and gold trade, the economic makeup of Europe would be massively changed. I'm not sure how would this affect an ATL Reformation (I think the Catholic Church was headed that way already, though I'm not sure). I could see Spain marching into North Africa, but I don't see it as a very worthwhile enterprise. Maybe they could attack the Ottomans instead? With the mindset of the Reconquista burning into their minds, and a lack of interest/opportunity of conquering the American Natives, maybe another Crusade would seem appealing.

The Spanish showed at an opportune time for the Inca, not necessarily for the Aztecs.

 

[Faeelin]

The obvious next step after Andalusia would be Morroco. Not easy but with Portugal and Spain aligned I would not bet against the Iberians, particularly after naval dominance is achieved (assuming that Lepanto or something like it still occurs)

Didn't the Iberian invade North Africa in OTL? My understanding is that the Portuguese invasion of 1578 led to the death of King Sebastian, for instance.

 

[Derek Pullem]

Didn't the Iberian invade North Africa in OTL? My understanding is that the Portuguese invasion of 1578 led to the death of King Sebastian, for instance.

True - but that was under a mad king and funded only by the Portuguese. With the resources of Spain and Portugal behind the new reconquista it is likely to be much more successful.

 

[Faeelin]

True - but that was under a mad king and funded only by the Portuguese. With the resources of Spain and Portugal behind the new reconquista it is likely to be much more successful.

Charles V also attacked Tunis, no? So it's not like the Spanish didn't also have interests in the area.

 

[RGB]

Spain and Portugal already held, for extended amounts of time, significant parts of coastal Africa OTL, and speculating after that is sort of a conceptual fork:

1. With more/consistent effort, they could have finished the job, or
2. They already held everything that fell within the sweet spot of being conquerable/holdable and valuable at the same time.

I personally don't have much in terms of evidence for either, but as far as alt-historical scenarios go, those are the two interpretations that I see right away. I sort of prefer the latter myself, because imposing 16th c. government over interior Morocco and Algeria seems rather exhausting for the potential alt-hist author

I also would like to note that the resources spent on the New World were pretty trivial compared to the resources spent on Africa and fighting against the Ottoman navy and its allies. The conquest of the Canary islands cost about as much as the conquest of Hispanola which itself was pretty comparable to the initial expeditions into Mexico and in turn dwarf the resouces spent on Peru and Chile. Not going for the Americas doesn't really give you that much more men and ships to use in the Mediterranean. It does deprive you of the two important things: Potosi, of course, and the Canton-Phillipines-Panama silver-driven trade it fueled.

 

[BBadolato]

With the POD are we still assuming that Ferdinand and Isabella don't have any sons and that the Spanish Hapsburgs are still going to happen? If not could we see the Spanish try to go for more of Italy, they already had the Two Sicilies and Sardinia at this point.

 

[Ellie]

It is a very real possiblity that the Incas and the Aztecs (or at least Mesoamerican city-states) survive European contact. Spanish Conquistadores had an amazing amount of luck, and not only because of disease; they just appeared at the right time (civil war in the Inca's case, for example). It is well into the realm of possibility that they would remain independent, or at least be folded into suzerainty later instead of outright conquest.

Let's not forget the Mayas, who, despite their disunity by the time of Spanish arrival, were excellent at resisting the conquest. After all, the Peten Itza Kingdom lasted until 1697, and essentially independent Maya villages existed as late as 1901.

An independent Aztec or Inca Empire would be interesting. Maybe one power (let's say England) props up Tawantinsuyu in order to curb the influence of another power (let's say France). In an ATL where Latin America is more divided, this is a good possibility, I think.

 

[Roland Traveler]

Let's not forget the Mayas, who, despite their disunity by the time of Spanish arrival, were excellent at resisting the conquest. After all, the Peten Itza Kingdom lasted until 1697, and essentially independent Maya villages existed as late as 1901.

An independent Aztec or Inca Empire would be interesting. Maybe one power (let's say England) props up Tawantinsuyu in order to curb the influence of another power (let's say France). In an ATL where Latin America is more divided, this is a good possibility, I think.

But would they prop up the Aztecs? I know that Europe has supported some shady regimes, but I don't think they would support a canabalistic, human sacrificing society when they could support an enemy for the same effect. Though whoever got Tenochtitlan wouldn't have budget troubles for a few years.

 

[Derek Pullem]

Spain and Portugal already held, for extended amounts of time, significant parts of coastal Africa OTL, and speculating after that is sort of a conceptual fork:

1. With more/consistent effort, they could have finished the job, or
2. They already held everything that fell within the sweet spot of being conquerable/holdable and valuable at the same time.

I personally don't have much in terms of evidence for either, but as far as alt-historical scenarios go, those are the two interpretations that I see right away. I sort of prefer the latter myself, because imposing 16th c. government over interior Morocco and Algeria seems rather exhausting for the potential alt-hist author

I also would like to note that the resources spent on the New World were pretty trivial compared to the resources spent on Africa and fighting against the Ottoman navy and its allies. The conquest of the Canary islands cost about as much as the conquest of Hispanola which itself was pretty comparable to the initial expeditions into Mexico and in turn dwarf the resouces spent on Peru and Chile. Not going for the Americas doesn't really give you that much more men and ships to use in the Mediterranean. It does deprive you of the two important things: Potosi, of course, and the Canton-Phillipines-Panama silver-driven trade it fueled.

One resource was used up colonising the Americas and that was the resource of the colonisers themselves. With around 750,000 Spaniards travelling to the New World over two centuries that is a pretty large demographic hit on the metropolitan state. Those same colonisers could have been directed at North Africa if the Americas were not an option.

 

[Alon]

The trade routes around Africa passed so close to Brazil that the Portuguese would have discovered it within a few years (and may already have known it was there in 1494).

 

[Napoleonrules]

The influence of easy hard currency in the way of gold and silver retarded the growth of Spain when it came to manufacturing and more importantly banking. If we assume the Spanish have big influence and interests still in the Netherlands and Italy the Spanish may instead co-opt a lot of the banking and corporate styles of those areas. We may see Barcelona instead of London become a financial innovator and capital of international capital. IOTL it was the Netherlands, Sweden, and England/GB that developed the proto-concept of central banking and Florence/Northern Italy thanks mostly to the Medici family the concept of large banking families financing... everything.

As mentioned by others, the Spanish had already conquered many cities along the coast through the 1500s, such as Tangiers, Ceuta, Algiers, and Tunis. A further conquest and consolidation of North Africa could push the Spanish to adopt international financing such as the Anglo-Dutch wars and associated debts OTL produced London's financing prowess.

 

[Thanksforallthefish]

But would they prop up the Aztecs? I know that Europe has supported some shady regimes, but I don't think they would support a canabalistic, human sacrificing society when they could support an enemy for the same effect. Though whoever got Tenochtitlan wouldn't have budget troubles for a few years.

I'm not sure if it is historic consensus, but from what I've read, the Aztecs were on the verge of collapse, or at least had a high possiblity of falling apart: they were hostile to every state in the region and their neighbors were more than tired. That's why Cortéz was able to find so many allies in the first place.

Now the Incas had similar problems with conquered peoples, but they were much more organized, in fact the most organized state in the Americas. If they survive the plagues, I could see them as something like China: a rich, hermit kingdom only ocassionally dealing with outsiders.

 

[Arkenfolm]

Then who will get involved in the New World in their place? There was too much of a lure for Europeans not to go there at some point. You'll definitely have Portugal get involved, since Brazil is so close to Africa, and probably the historic players--France, the Netherlands, England. I couldn't see at some point Spain NOT getting involved, if only to take a sugar island or two in the Caribbean, just like Sweden and Denmark did.

Spain got involved far too deep in the New World OTL, but a good deal of that you can blame on the religious ideology of the state. And if Spain is still out there defending Christendom through destroying Morocco and fighting the Ottomans on every front, then I find it hard to believe they wouldn't be doing something in the New World too. Although taking out the land gained from conquering the Inca and Aztecs and the mess in Mexico that drew them into, Spain would still try and get some bases to convert/enserf Indians, get good agricultural land, and at least to deny it to other powers. Probably Florida and somewhere in modern Venezuela/Colombia/Central America would be the most likely, but it depends who grabs what. And trust me, Europeans will try and grab something, even if they can't conquer the big players like the Aztecs (who will fall apart for reasons mentioned, and then what will happen?) and the Inca (who will end up China, more than likely, or maybe 19th century Persia). Spain will probably want to create a trade route like they did across the Pacific Ocean, so it strikes me they'll take one of those places at any cost. The Philippines might end up more developed because they'll be of greater importance.

Yes, Spain focusing on Europe instead of the New World might help them out economically, but now they don't have the influx of resources extracted out of Latin America, which might have been squandered, true, but it really did help fuel their warmongering. Maybe Spain will end up more developed because of frugality on their part? Difficult to say. A lot will also depends what happens to Portugal--do they still fall under personal union with Spain? You could see a much larger Portuguese New World at the expense of Portuguese influence in the East Indies. Spain's potential influence in the East Indies would be interesting to see.

 

[Deleted member 93645]

The influence of easy hard currency in the way of gold and silver retarded the growth of Spain when it came to manufacturing and more importantly banking. If we assume the Spanish have big influence and interests still in the Netherlands and Italy the Spanish may instead co-opt a lot of the banking and corporate styles of those areas. We may see Barcelona instead of London become a financial innovator and capital of international capital. IOTL it was the Netherlands, Sweden, and England/GB that developed the proto-concept of central banking and Florence/Northern Italy thanks mostly to the Medici family the concept of large banking families financing... everything.

As mentioned by others, the Spanish had already conquered many cities along the coast through the 1500s, such as Tangiers, Ceuta, Algiers, and Tunis. A further conquest and consolidation of North Africa could push the Spanish to adopt international financing such as the Anglo-Dutch wars and associated debts OTL produced London's financing prowess.

That is a pretty interesting idea. If the Spanish instead of the Dutch formed a "Dutch" banking and trading empire, perhaps that empire would have lasted much longer due to Spain's higher population and position farther from the center of European wars. Then again, the holy war component would also get it into more conflicts with the Ottomans, and if the Barbary pirates aren't defeated they could destroy Spain's Mediterranean trade quite quickly.

Perhaps a Spanish East India company would precede the Dutch.

 

[kasumigenx]

Then who will get involved in the New World in their place? There was too much of a lure for Europeans not to go there at some point. You'll definitely have Portugal get involved, since Brazil is so close to Africa, and probably the historic players--France, the Netherlands, England. I couldn't see at some point Spain NOT getting involved, if only to take a sugar island or two in the Caribbean, just like Sweden and Denmark did.

Spain got involved far too deep in the New World OTL, but a good deal of that you can blame on the religious ideology of the state. And if Spain is still out there defending Christendom through destroying Morocco and fighting the Ottomans on every front, then I find it hard to believe they wouldn't be doing something in the New World too. Although taking out the land gained from conquering the Inca and Aztecs and the mess in Mexico that drew them into, Spain would still try and get some bases to convert/enserf Indians, get good agricultural land, and at least to deny it to other powers. Probably Florida and somewhere in modern Venezuela/Colombia/Central America would be the most likely, but it depends who grabs what. And trust me, Europeans will try and grab something, even if they can't conquer the big players like the Aztecs (who will fall apart for reasons mentioned, and then what will happen?) and the Inca (who will end up China, more than likely, or maybe 19th century Persia). Spain will probably want to create a trade route like they did across the Pacific Ocean, so it strikes me they'll take one of those places at any cost. The Philippines might end up more developed because they'll be of greater importance.

Yes, Spain focusing on Europe instead of the New World might help them out economically, but now they don't have the influx of resources extracted out of Latin America, which might have been squandered, true, but it really did help fuel their warmongering. Maybe Spain will end up more developed because of frugality on their part? Difficult to say. A lot will also depends what happens to Portugal--do they still fall under personal union with Spain? You could see a much larger Portuguese New World at the expense of Portuguese influence in the East Indies. Spain's potential influence in the East Indies would be interesting to see.

If colombus did not discover , the Spanish would be the one conquering Eastern and Central Indonesia, leaving the Islamized parts of Indonesia and the Philippines untouched for a longer time.

 

[Sevarics]

If colombus did not discover , the Spanish would be the one conquering Eastern and Central Indonesia, leaving the Islamized parts of Indonesia and the Philippines untouched for a longer time.

Wouldn't the Portuguese be in the better position for this with the circum Africa route