What if Russia didn't take Outer Manchuria and Haishenwai/Vladivostock?

[TheWitheredStriker]

I do think that if you keep greater Manchuria under the Qing, that could plausibly lessen the geopolitical pressure on Korea. A country not under imminent threat of Russian occupation might well be less of a Japanese target.

Hmmm, point taken. So I suppose a surviving Korean Empire isn't out of the question.

What could the potential ramifications of that be? No division of Korea is an easy one, but that can't be everything. Could Korea modernize more effectively? Would they become reluctant allies of the Japanese (after all, there were organisations in Korea who tried to modernize the country with Japanese help; see for example the Gapsin Coup), or would they turn against them the first chance they get? I'm really interested in what this whole situation (Vassal Korean Empire + sovereign Manchu buffer state) could mean for the Pacific War, should such a conflict even still happen.

I wonder how this could affect Christianity in Korea, too. IOTL, the explosive growth of Christianity in the country was largely a result of it being associated with Korean nationalism and independence, as well as defiance of State Shinto and Japanese rule; the pre-existing decline of organized Buddhism (plus its association with the conservatism that made Korea the plaything of foreign powers), plus the tendency of Korean indigenous religion to approximate monotheism, further bolstered conversions. In a surviving Korean Empire that is a vassal of Japan, though, these circumstances might all be butterflied or otherwise different.

 

[raharris1973]

I love the idea of Russia not annexing Outer Manchuria, and Manchuria becoming independent under the Qing dynasty in 1911 as a result. Definitely thinking on what I can contribute to this scenario.

However... why exactly are we talking about a modernized Korea that colonizes Manchuria? I don't want to be a downer, but by the time Manchuria becomes independent in 1911, Korea has lost its independence and is a non-autonomous province of Japan. They will not be doing anything whatsoever. Korea's fate is not going to change simply because Manchuria has a bit more land.

What will change about Korea though, is that when it reclaims its sovereignty from Japan, it will do so fully united. Unless Manchuria goes communist or stuff like that, there will be no one to directly back up the Kims in the Korean War when South Korea is whooping their ass. And even if Manchuria does turn communist and intervenes militarily, they'll be unlikely to turn the tide like China did. Manchuria may have heavily modernized by then, but I'm doubtful of their ability to push the Americans back over the borders.

excellent point in general, and counterpoint to the Korean lebensraum wank scenario concept

I honestly think Japan and Manchuria would moreso be allies. Manchuria, especially with Outer Manchuria, would be a joint buffer state against both China and Russia. Annexing or militarily occupying the region would give Japan a direct border with both. This strikes me as undesirable in a situation where Manchuria is already fully independent and does not require the presence of the Japanese military to even exist, especially considering that Manchuria and Japan have many reasons to be friends here.

A very interesting divergent possibility I had not considered.

I do think that if you keep greater Manchuria under the Qing, that could plausibly lessen the geopolitical pressure on Korea. A country not under imminent threat of Russian occupation might well be less of a Japanese target.

It is always a possible outcome. But nothing about the lack of Russian threat *has* to make it so. Before feeling threatened by Russia, Japan felt threatened/bullied/disrespected by China during its self-strengthening movement in the 1880s, even though it was confident enough it could win in the middle 1890s. China, not Russia, was Japan's first competitor for Korea.

I'm really interested in what this whole situation (Vassal Korean Empire + sovereign Manchu buffer state) could mean for the Pacific War, should such a conflict even still happen.

It would be a whole different pathway, to a whole different ballgame, but I won't deny that *a* ballgame could happen that could have some superficial resemblances to our world's Pacific War, even though its origins and particulars would be quite different.

Of course, a Japan that just has mainland vassals and buffer states instead of conquests on the Asian mainland could have an imperialist/expansionist experience in the 20th century that is far less "supernova"-like than Showa Japan, and just be a longer-term persist colonial power, like a Portugal, Spain, Belgium in Asia and parts of the Pacific.

 

[TheWitheredStriker]

I’ve been looking into this more.

Even in the 1850 most of the cabinet was against expansion to the Amur and Pacific and this was a local initiative in which success justified violation of the explicit orders.

Can someone source this, and elaborate a bit more on it? I’d like to acquire more context on the Russian hesitance to take Outer Manchuria.

 

[alexmilman]

I’ve been looking into this more.


Can someone source this, and elaborate a bit more on it? I’d like to acquire more context on the Russian hesitance to take Outer Manchuria.

You can find some relevant information at https://ru.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Муравьёв-Амурский,_Николай_Николаевич#Восточная_Сибирь_(1847—1861)
This can give you a general idea.

As for the context, the first attempt to renegotiate the Nerchinsk Treaty had been made during the reign of CII: the Russian government asked for permission of a free navigation on the Amur, Chinese refused and the issue was closed for quite a while not to disturb the Kjahta trade. However, in the early XIX the increased Russian naval activity on the Pacific brought the issue back. The furs from Alaska had to be brought to Okhotsk and from it transported to Kjakhta by land, which was extremely cumbersome and, anyway, Okhotsk as the main Russian port on the Pacific was very inconvenient geographically: no convenient roads, the region was not self-sustainable, etc. Hence, questionably legal (Nerchinsk Treaty was quite vague because neither side had a clear information regarding the related geography and by the 1850s the Chinese administration still did not have regional maps) naval research of the mouth of the Amur, which eventually led to the OTL acquisitions.
The main arguments against were:
(a) The Russian government feared to provoke a major war with China based upon a rather questionable estimate that the Qing can bring a half-million army into the region.
(b) The earlier expeditions came with a wrong conclusion that the Amur at its mouth “disappears” in the small rivulets and not available for the navigation.

The Opium war put (a) to the end and Nevelskoy’s research to the (b), at least as far as Nicholas I was concerned (the cabinet still was reluctant). And (a) had been confirmed by a travel of a caravan lead by a single small steamer down the river: the local Chinese authorities did not even try to stop it.

 

[Philip]

What happens to the lands of OTL's Kamchatka Krai and Magadan Oblast in this scenario? Do they remain in Russian hands?

 

[alexmilman]

What happens to the lands of OTL's Kamchatka Krai and Magadan Oblast in this scenario? Do they remain in Russian hands?

None of these regions had anything to do with the Treaty of Nerchinsk and China definitely did not have any realistic way to get there. So the issue was Britain.

Actually, their possession to a great degree motivated breaking of the Nerchinsk Treaty and OTL expansion: there was a need of the practical and secure way to send reinforcements to Petropavlovsk. Doing this through Okhotsk was not practical and doing this by a circumnavigation - not secure.

 

[TheWitheredStriker]

So to summarize everything we've concluded so far:

• There was genuine opposition, or at least reluctance, from Russia to annex Outer Manchuria, and it mainly happened because of independent-minded officials deciding to disobey orders;
• The retention of Outer Manchuria by the Qing dynasty would most likely allow for the survival of Manchuria as a sovereign state, particularly since it didn't see OTL's mass migration of Han and since the early Chinese Republic didn't seem to want it. Following the Xinhai Revolution, a rump Qing dynasty would form in Manchuria.
• This Manchuria would likely see merit in a (perhaps cautious) alliance with Japan. Japan could itself see merit in using Manchuria as a buffer state and ally against the Russians and Chinese, without intruding on its sovereignty;
• Korea might be retained as a Japanese client state instead of being outright annexed;
• Probably a wholly different Pacific War;

Now for my own two fen (hehe):

• There absolutely will be a Pacific War. A surviving Manchuria undeniably has butterflies, but it won't butterfly Japanese imperialism and expansionism, which was already ongoing at the time of the Xinhai Revolution (subjugation of Korea, annexation of Taiwan, etc). The Japanese are also still going to need natural resources.
  • Of note is that Manchuria has oil. If this oil field is discovered in time, the Japanese might buy it from the Manchus instead of invading the East Indies. If this oil field isn't discovered though, Japan is still going South. Furthermore, even if the Manchus do manage to find and extract the oil, Japan might actually still invade Indonesia anyway. They extracted a lot of oil from their share of Sakhalin Island and yet still went to Indonesia.
  • TL;DR Japan is most likely still going to invade Indonesia, even if the Manchus sell them oil.
• Manchuria has the potential to become an economically prosperous and highly industrialized state. The region is full of natural resources, such as minerals, coal, and petroleum, and IOTL it was the first region of China to industrialize. The Qing empire would likely see the Manchu homeland evolve from a rural and tribal country into a highly urbanized society.
• Even if China doesn't initially want Manchuria, they will sooner or later. No matter how little the Beiyang government minds them, the Kuomintang will develop designs on Manchuria the moment they rise to power. Note that the KMT considered Tibet an integral part of China despite it "only" being a protectorate and that they continued to claim Outer Mongolia and Tannu Tuva as an integral part of China despite both regions being practically void of Han Chinese and enjoying Soviet protection. Chiang Kai-shek's ultimate territorial goal for the ROC was to have every last square meter of territory held by the Qing dynasty (except for, perhaps ironically, Outer Manchuria), end of. This might prove interesting for the Pacific War.

And for some of my questions:

• Would the Manchus control Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands? I think these islands were vaguely under Manchu overlordship before Russia came into the region, but I don't think the Qing ever actually administered these islands; moreso just a nominal claim to power.
• Since Manchuria is not initially part of the ROC, which flag would the Beiyang government use? Would they use the Five Races Under One Union flag but simply without the yellow band for the Manchus (kinda like this without the emblem of Manchukuo; basically the top-left part of Manchukuo's flag); or maybe a variant of this flag, which I understand was initially a very early symbol for the ROC before becoming an army flag?
• How could the Pacific War play out in a broad sense? Japan would continue its imperial expansion and China would be nationalist and irredentist. Could we see an Axis China and Allied Japan? What would the role of Manchuria be? What happens to Korea?

I think this scenario is genuinely fascinating, despite how minor and handwavy it might seem at first glance; so I would be very glad to explore it further!

 

[Analytical Engine]

In such a case, it's possible that Japan might grab and keep hold of Sakhalin and the Kurils in TTL

 

[TrickyApe]

Without the large scale migration of Han the population of the Manchurian provinces will remain very low, perhaps too low to be a viable state even under the circumstances being discussed.

Take a look at this chart, from an old thread on this website.

No Han-Chinese settlement in Manchuria... Russified Manchuria?

Assuming there is no Han-Chinese settlement in Manchuria for various reasons (no Qing Conquest so Chinese Civil war between Ming and Shun) and the area remains in Manchu hands, how likely is it for Russia to take over the region and the area experiences Russification (Russian settlements...

www.alternatehistory.com

Assuming it's accurate, there were only 2 million people in the Manchurian area before the migrations began (the 1790 column), and roughly a quarter of these were Mongols who likely lived in the referenced Northwestern Leagues of Inner Mongolia, only attached to the Manchurian provinces later on. Even the 1790 small population had a Han plurality, probably concentrated in the southern parts, outnumbering a mere 500k "Manchu". The chart doesn't seem to account for the peoples of Outer Manchuria, but I think the population there was small and mostly of the minority ethnicities.