What if No Electoral College in 2012?

[asupackman]

Looking at 270 to win this morning and playing around while watching the sunday morning news shows I got to thinking. What would this election be like if the electoral college had been scrapped after the 2000 election like some had talked about. Looking at the numbers and the battle ground states it looks like this election is really going to come down to three or four states (FL, Ohio, NC, Va, maybe a couple others). How do you think this campaign would be waged differently if the candidates were worried only about the popular vote and not the EC.

The POD I had in mind was that after 2000 real momendum gets behind some sort of change to the EC, either amendment or the state compact proposal where a group of states give their electoral votes to the candidate who wins the national popular vote no matter how their states vote. I would assume that 2004 would still go the same because you would need time to write the amedment/proposals and get them into place. Then 2008 would be the first election post-EC but with Obama and the Dem's momentum they win anyway. So it would make 2012 the first major election with no EC, so what's different? (Assume everything else is the same, just no EC to factor)

Note: This is not intended to discuss the politics of this years race, only the strategies of the campaigns, including how third parties might do better under this system.

 

[Makemakean]

Looking at 270 to win this morning and playing around while watching the sunday morning news shows I got to thinking. What would this election be like if the electoral college had been scrapped after the 2000 election like some had talked about. Looking at the numbers and the battle ground states it looks like this election is really going to come down to three or four states (FL, Ohio, NC, Va, maybe a couple others). How do you think this campaign would be waged differently if the candidates were worried only about the popular vote and not the EC.

The POD I had in mind was that after 2000 real momendum gets behind some sort of change to the EC, either amendment or the state compact proposal where a group of states give their electoral votes to the candidate who wins the national popular vote no matter how their states vote. I would assume that 2004 would still go the same because you would need time to write the amedment/proposals and get them into place. Then 2008 would be the first election post-EC but with Obama and the Dem's momentum they win anyway. So it would make 2012 the first major election with no EC, so what's different? (Assume everything else is the same, just no EC to factor)

Note: This is not intended to discuss the politics of this years race, only the strategies of the campaigns, including how third parties might do better under this system.

Well, it would certainly be interesting to see candidate use less of their time and money fumbling around in Iowa, Ohio and Colorado.

Hell, it is outright absurd how much effort goes into catering to a specific couple of thousand voters in a few swing states.

 

[Whanztastic]

I would imagine there would be a larger voter turnout, being the first election where people actually elect the president.

 

[schecky]

There would be more campaigning in states like New York and Texas. Places like Wyoming would more or less be ignored, and third-parties may get less votes. Election Night would be much, much less interesting though.

 

[MrHuman]

What would be much more likely is a system in which winning a state gets you a certain number of votes as a bloc, which are added to the popular vote. So you'd have a fairer system, but the small states wouldn't have reason to be really mad, because candidates would still depend on winning states.

Also you can still call states in TLs, so Election Night is less boring.

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

The Economist pointed out that if the election were held 'today', ie a week or so ago, that Obama would win with 285 to 207 electoral votes, with like three states too close to call. This despite a dead heat in popular vote.

I might have the numbers a bit off, but thats close.

Given the furor over Gore, the democrats might just be willing to scrap the ec. And if obama wins 300:240, say, despite a tie in popular vote, the republicans would be crying for it.

The abolition of the ec might just pass. Maybe.