Well, ignoring we don't even know if Jesus the person existed IOTL, or if he was a conglomerate of persons...
And ignoring the fact that if he DID exist IOTL, he wasn't exactly a popular prophet, because we have no writings about him from contemporaries of the time, and writings only start occurring several decades after his death. So he's not going to lead any kind of revolt with a chance of success, unless his "miracles" start massacring Roman armies...
And ignoring that up until Paul there wasn't really a coherent structure for Christianity, so any of Jesus' more violent works may just be edited out...
Your scenario is still completely ASB.
when he fails he is deemed a martyr and due to his miracles being militarial instead of kinda novel, Christianity is seen as a direct successor to Judaism, and the majority of Jews believe he is the messiah instead of just a few
How does he lead this revolt? If it has God behind it, how does it fail? If it doesn't, why does it matter?
so this underground militant Christianity lasts until Rome collapses earlier and the Jews strike creating the Kingdom of Judah which later falls to stronger Egyptians
*blinks*.
You do realize Roman control of Palestine persisted until it fell to the Persians and then the Arabs in the
7th century, right? And that the majority of people there were Christians (in this TL just Romans who aren't Jews)?
The Romans would break up the Jews as a group if they revolted like this. They sort of did OTL, and the Romans then made sure that they were never a threat again.
But I'll humor you and tweak the scenario a bit. Let's massacre some butterflies and assume the Jews participate even more in the last Persian-Roman war. Something happens like in
The Mauricians, with Jews being massacred and forced to baptize, and they cooperate with the Persians to take Palestine for themselves. This happened to an extent IOTL anyways.
And then let's assume Rome loses that war and Judea comes into being as a puppet state for Persia. For a decade or two, it persists, Jewish identity is re-established, a whole ton of Romans get the bad end of genocide, etc. Instead of the Egyptians, the Arabs conquer Palestine.
the Jews are pushed north and west and end up around the Baltic Sea, where they establish their kingdom again
What.
What?
How in the name of Roman-genociding Jesus would the Jews push North and West, across either the Caucasus or the Dardanells? They'd have to cross Anatolia or Armenia, controlled by a vengeful Rome that is probably cooperating with the Arabs and is more than a match for a bunch of nomadic Jews.
And Jews of this time aren't even nomadic! You'd need an ASB (/God) to intervene hundreds of thousands of times just for a large enough group of Jews to make it into Europe. Then they'd have to cross a bunch of actual nomads who are much better at fighting than them, avoid getting absorbed by the Slavs, and end up in the Baltic Sea?
I realize this is a no-effort post mostly made to troll, but I couldn't resist. When teleporting Jews who no doubt practice Jew Jitsu and are still somehow conquered show up, you know that you're gonna have a good time.