What would the history of North America look like had the Vikings been able to make Vinland a successful, self-sustaining colony hundreds of years before Spain and the other European powers arrive?
Vinland Survives
- Thread starter Everdarklegion
- Start date
I think this would depend on the PoD.
Larger initial settlement?
Making Vin/Greenland a traditional place of exile?
Larger initial settlement?
Making Vin/Greenland a traditional place of exile?
This would require in first place a solid determination of the Vikings to make Vinland a colony, something they were little interested into do it IOTL. So the motivation of the existence of the colony would be crucial for its later survival and development.
This would need to be a strong motivation for its development, as unlike Iceland and most of Greenland, Vinland was populated by hostile native tribes and sustaining a colony that far away and against such hostile neighbours would require lots of efforts which should have worthy awards in balance, otherwise it will be abandoned at the first problems (as it happened IOTL).
Certainly I fail to find any strong motivation for them for investing such efforts in developing a Vinlandic colony. Maybe you would need to convert it in a place of mass exile for political reasons or something like that, because from an economical point of view is hard to find a reason.
This would need to be a strong motivation for its development, as unlike Iceland and most of Greenland, Vinland was populated by hostile native tribes and sustaining a colony that far away and against such hostile neighbours would require lots of efforts which should have worthy awards in balance, otherwise it will be abandoned at the first problems (as it happened IOTL).
Certainly I fail to find any strong motivation for them for investing such efforts in developing a Vinlandic colony. Maybe you would need to convert it in a place of mass exile for political reasons or something like that, because from an economical point of view is hard to find a reason.
I don't think that making Vinland a penal colony would make it any more viable than OTL, I don't think there would be convicts enough, and to ship them to a place so far away is really a waste of resources. I think that the only thing that could make the Norse want to keep their presence there would be precious metals or stones.
Otto Kretschmer
Banned
Wasn't Vinland better climate wise than Greenland? If yes one may just evacuate people from Greenland to Vinland
Vinland had better climate, but also Native American tribes.
Settlers in Greenland were never abundant so there is little point in doing so.
Other than the native american problem there is another problem, Vinland has a serious trade deficit, there is nothing there that could be exported to Europe, grain, skins, fish, wood, and probably any of the products that Vinland could sell can be found elsewhere in places closer and easier to transport to Europe or even in Europe itself.
Vinland depended on Greenland, they were a source of wood to Greenland, and Greenland sold Ivory to Europe. If Vinland grows bigger they can find iron deposits, diversify their agriculture and animal husbandry, start producing their textiles and so on, making them finally self suficient enough, but they need at least a couple of thousands of colonists and work continuously for at least a decade to reach that level, if they are lucky. If they are lucky because for a decade or two the colonists are just a couple bad storms or a particular bad winter away from becoming Roanoke 0.1.
So, the question is, who is going to finance 2 to 10 thousand improductive colonists in Vinland during 10 to 20 years when you could probably hire or summon an army and conquer a small kingdom with that same money. Also remember that this investor will do it without any assurance of finding anything special there because people at the time didn't have our hindsight about all the riches of the continent,
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If the North Sea Empire of Cnut the Great or another similar Empire would have been a solid reality for enough time, maybe (just maybe) these planned and well invested colonial efforts could have prospered.
I'm not convinced that it would solve the money problem, but even if the problem of "how" is solved it stil doesn't solve the problem of "why", why not conquer new lands like Ireland, Scotland, Finland or the Baltic? Why not invest in draining swamps, cutting forests or building canals in your lands? Why not build cathedrals or go on a crusade?
Agreed, finding the proper motivation is a much more tricky thing than simply determining if a hypothetical state had the resources to achieve it. Going to the moon has been feasible for decades now and yet no one has set foot on the moon in nearly 40 years.
I'd also argue that, considering how difficult the English found it to keep the colonies going in the early 17th century, no state in the 10th-11th centuries would have been sophisticated enough to sustain a New World colony long term.
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What if Vinland became a beaver trapping colony for the Vikings like it was for the French who settled the area later? If Vinland could use the trading of furs as a way to make themselves profitable, immigration is sure to increase. The only question is how fast can Vinland attract new immigrants?
The major point of concern for them is ultimately having enough of a military force to fight off the natives. However this presents a situation that can only be described as a double-edged sword. If the Vikings had a large enough military force in Vinland, over time these hostile native tribes will become acclimated to Viking tactics, weapons and technology thus making it harder to protect the colony and it's inhabitants. Thoughts?
The major point of concern for them is ultimately having enough of a military force to fight off the natives. However this presents a situation that can only be described as a double-edged sword. If the Vikings had a large enough military force in Vinland, over time these hostile native tribes will become acclimated to Viking tactics, weapons and technology thus making it harder to protect the colony and it's inhabitants. Thoughts?
I can see one obvious one. Though it only works with a PoD 5 to 10 years before the founding/exploration of Vinland, so it wouldn't be otl Vinland but alt Vinland. If you accept someone like Eric the Red would get to Greenland, it is likely they'd find Vinland whomever they are.
The change is make the conversion of Iceland and Norway longer, drawn out and bloodier. Butterfly Olaf Trygvasson would probably be the easiest way. Lets face it in 990 90% of everybody in those countries were Pagan. By 1010 in Iceland everyone 'on paper' was Christian and Norway was 50/50 or so.
Basically create refugees who want a place to go and can flee while they still have something and can't go back, you have a well motivated settler population.
What if Greenland was bypassed initially? So Eric the Red founds his colony in Newfoundland.
Maybe if Harald Hardrada wins out in 1066 and gets heavy-handed toward the Icelanders, insisting that he is their rightful overlord. Might case some of them to try their luck further west
The way to go IMO would be Olaf Trygvasson being more successful in violently converting Iceland, i.e. no compromise like IOTL, leaving the pagans there with no option but that of the cross, the sword or exile and have Vinland settled by the latter group, i.e. religious dissenters like OTL's Pilgrim Fathers, only of a Norse pagan flavour.
That would work too. Have him live a few years longer, respond to Iceland with "what is this compromise crap". Have a wave of Norweigen refugees from this asshole (yes he's my least favorite obscure medieval asshole). Have the Icelander repeal the Christianization (after a year or two so it hasn't stuck) due to the Christians breaking the agreement. The demographics change as committed Christians become sacrifices in the revival.
Have the violence spread to Greenland!
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Another Vinland option: have them land on Anticosti Island. An island with no native people living on it would be a more promising settlement location,
Half of Newfoundland didn't have much native presence to begin with, people really should stop just thinking about this in terms of "there is native presence, this means landing and colonization is automatically difficult"
The red dots belong to Beothuk-era sites, a population that had 500-1000 people, the yellow one belong to all pre-Beothuk sites(longer period of time)
Simply speaking there is absolutely no reason to believe the Norse wouldn't be able to land on the island, defend themselves and grow in size.
They colonized places that had 1000 times more people and far more advanced and organized polities, Ireland and England, without needing any numerical parity. If anyone is going to argue that a band of 100 Norsemen can't settle and defend themselves in Newfoundland it would be akin to claim that the Spanish shouldn't have been able to colonize the Caribbeans either, which is evidently false.
Well, Scandinavia wasn't as used to major pandemics as the majority of Europe, like say Spain. I imiagine it might have to do with the sparser population centers/more spread out population as well as the climate, so while some illnesses will follow to North America, it probably won't be as deadly as say Smallpox with the Spaniards during the 1400s/1500s.
This means the population of the Natives should still outmatch the Vinlanders. Another thing to consider is that Vinland would likely have people who know how to forge iron, or smelt ore. Depending on where they land, they could access iron ore deposits or find bog iron, creating new metal weapons. Which they could use against the natives or trade with the natives for food, clothing, furs, etc. Knowing Scandinavians, it would probably be a mix of both fighting with and trading iron weapons.
This could lead to power balances shifting in the new world, possibly even natives learning how to make them themselves.
It seems unlikely that tribes would pick up ironworking so quickly when OTL it took centuries to diffuse across a bronze working Europe.
Yeah but the thing is the Norse still have been living in very close proximity with their livestock for the better part of three thousand years by this point, even if there aren't any mass deaths I can guarantee you infant mortality are going to go way up and people are gonna start kicking the bucket sooner.
To put it short it's not going to have a lot of short term effects but it is definitely going to affect future demographics of the region.
Also where has this idea come from that the Norse never had any epidemics or meaningful diseases? Eric the Red literally died from one in Greenland.
In all honesty the Maritimes of Canada are no stranger to islands, I would say the Magdalen islands would be a good spot given it was only seasonally inhabited by Mikmaq natives and was absolutely swarming with Walrus when it was discovered. The soil also seems a bit better for agriculture than Anticosti too.
This isn't wrong necessarily but it is by far an overused argument. Greenland historically exported cattle skins when there was almost certainly more sources closer, but the thing is any enterprising merchant worth his salt would use relative scarcity to his advantage, sure Baltic and Russian furs might be on the market but I'd expect the price for them in their homelands would be far higher than what you'd have to pay a Native. Even among the Norse Vinlanders I'd imagine they'd be willing to pay far more for European Metalwork (I imagine they'd be self-sufficient on basic tools but swords and other things would probably need to be imported) than their cousins in Scandinavia would.
Most of the costs in the transportation would be the time required, supplies/ship maintenance, and the navigational know-how to get there and back; If the Story of Bjarne Herjolfsson is to be used as reference of the travel time then with rest stops in Iceland and Greenland included the journey would take less than a year, so it's doable but there may be a need to overwinter on one side of the Atlantic. Given these it's far more likely it's going to be the Vinlanders themselves going to Europe (or at least Iceland) in Larch planked ships to sell their wares.
The big problem I see with any meaningful trade is Vinland's lack of precious metals, yes Newfoundland does have deposits of gold but I don't think the Norse were particularly good at mining and I'm not sure if those deposits are exploitable with anything less than industrial equipment.
Yeah but the thing is the Norse still have been living in very close proximity with their livestock for the better part of three thousand years by this point, even if there aren't any mass deaths I can guarantee you infant mortality are going to go way up and people are gonna start kicking the bucket sooner.
To put it short it's not going to have a lot of short term effects but it is definitely going to affect future demographics of the region.
Also where has this idea come from that the Norse never had any epidemics or meaningful diseases? Eric the Red literally died from one in Greenland.
In all honesty the Maritimes of Canada are no stranger to islands, I would say the Magdalen islands would be a good spot given it was only seasonally inhabited by Mikmaq natives and was absolutely swarming with Walrus when it was discovered. The soil also seems a bit better for agriculture than Anticosti too.
This isn't wrong necessarily but it is by far an overused argument. Greenland historically exported cattle skins when there was almost certainly more sources closer, but the thing is any enterprising merchant worth his salt would use relative scarcity to his advantage, sure Baltic and Russian furs might be on the market but I'd expect the price for them in their homelands would be far higher than what you'd have to pay a Native. Even among the Norse Vinlanders I'd imagine they'd be willing to pay far more for European Metalwork (I imagine they'd be self-sufficient on basic tools but swords and other things would probably need to be imported) than their cousins in Scandinavia would.
Most of the costs in the transportation would be the time required, supplies/ship maintenance, and the navigational know-how to get there and back; If the Story of Bjarne Herjolfsson is to be used as reference of the travel time then with rest stops in Iceland and Greenland included the journey would take less than a year, so it's doable but there may be a need to overwinter on one side of the Atlantic. Given these it's far more likely it's going to be the Vinlanders themselves going to Europe (or at least Iceland) in Larch planked ships to sell their wares.
The big problem I see with any meaningful trade is Vinland's lack of precious metals, yes Newfoundland does have deposits of gold but I don't think the Norse were particularly good at mining and I'm not sure if those deposits are exploitable with anything less than industrial equipment.