he was already bugging people in 1969, broke into Daniel Ellsberg's psychiatrist office in summer 1971, also in summer 1971 they had people stalk Ted Kennedy, forged fake cables to link JFK to the assassination of Ngo Dinh Diem, in May 1972 Nixon personally blessed sending E. Howard Hunt to Milwaukee to plant McGovern and other left wing materials in the apartment of the shooter of George Wallace.
And yet he didn't get caught until years later.
And if he gets past his LAST campaign, the odds of getting caught go way down.
And that changes everything.
Reagan, a great campaigner, as VP for a hugely popular President, a likely winner in 76.
I'll have to look at the events of that time to see what the differences would be.
One thing, is that without Watergate, it seems likely that a hugely popular Nixon would have been able to support South Vietnam when they are invaded.
The mostly conventional invasion, with tanks and trucks would have been the best target for the Air Force of the whole war. South Vietnam does not fall, at least not on OTL schedule.