TL: The rise of 20th century monarchies

[reformer]

POD
1900: In Spain, the intellectual, artistic, and national generation of 98' movement takes a turn twardes Catholicism. There is a new rise of Spanish reactionaries partially due to the increassed religious element.

1901: The Carlist pretender faction in Spain becomes the leading reactionary group. Many of the reactionaries join the military. The Carlists also announce their support of a return to Spanish Imperialism.

1902: Many Spanish preists announce their support of the Carlists.

1903: As in OTL, the Spanish and French try to take more direct controll over Morroco, which is already bassically under Spanish and French influence.

1904: The Spanish government tries to create a more organised resistance to the Carlists. To do this, they try to make themselves look less imperialist. One of the ways they acheive this is by arranging that most of Morroco will be partitioned to France, and they put a plan in place to give Morroco full independance by 1920.

Umberto, someday to become Umberto II of Italy (same as in OTL) is born. He is the son of Victor Emanuel III, the king of Italy.

1905: The previously secret plans regarding Morroco are reveild. The Spanish are appaled at the prospect of actualy giving away land and prestiege to the French and eventualy loosing Morroco all toghether. The Carlists use this as an excuse to revolt.

The Kaiser in Germany sees Carlist Spain as a potential ally, and supports the revolt.

Carlos VII crowned king of Spain. He immediately recives Papal support.

At first, France refuses to relinquish control of Morroco, but the Germans threaten war, knowing that France will back down. U.S. president Theodore Roosevelt arranges a treaty in which all of Morroco is given to Spain, but a medium-sized sum of money is paid to France by Germany and Spain.

1906: The Carlist reactionary regieme actualy helps Spain reoganise and industrialise due to greater order. Like Mussolini, they make the trains run on time. Spain joins the alliance between Germany, the Austro-Hungarian Empre, and Italy.

1907: Inspired by Spain's sucess, Italy decides to grant more power to the monarch.

1908: Internationaly, the reactionary movement becomes slightly stronger.

Taft is elected President of the United States.

1909: Umberto is betroved to a Carlist.

1910: French reactionaries and monarchists begin supporting a Carlist for the throne of France in case the republic is ever overthrown.

1911: Germany thrives under a more reactionary Europe. The Navy League and other such militaristic movements become popular.

Great Britain becomes more concerned about the strength of Germany and its allies.

1912: Woodrow Wilson elected President of the United States.

1913: Many Europeans become concerned about the rise of the reactionaries. Many look to Communism as a possible salvation. Communism becomes particularly strong in France and Germany.

1914: Outbreak of WWI same immediate cause as in OTL. Due to fear of the central powers, Britain joins the war immediately instead of waiting for nuetrality to be broken.

 

[Grey Wolf]

France refuses to relinquish control of Morroco, but the Germans threaten war, knowing that France will back down.

Not sure this makes sense given that almost the same situation occurred in OTL

Also, cannot see why the French monarchists would ditch the Orleans dynasty for the Spanish Carlists.

However, a Carlist Spain in this period is an interesting idea. The defeat of 1898 would certainly make a good place to begin the divergence, with revolution later. Your artistic trends etc make sense as something has to push out a more liberal government for a more conservative one, going against the trend elsewhere in the world.

Grey Wolf

 

[Kurt_Steiner]

Not sure this makes sense given that almost the same situation occurred in OTL

Also, cannot see why the French monarchists would ditch the Orleans dynasty for the Spanish Carlists.

However, a Carlist Spain in this period is an interesting idea. The defeat of 1898 would certainly make a good place to begin the divergence, with revolution later. Your artistic trends etc make sense as something has to push out a more liberal government for a more conservative one, going against the trend elsewhere in the world.

Grey Wolf

Neither I, but I agree that it could be a good idea. However, I doubt if Britain would be so late to see the danger.

 

[reformer]

I did some exstra research, and the Carlists were actualy the "head" of the entire family. There was a small Carlist movement in France. If the Carlists were popular elsewhere, they may look more appealing to the French.

The only real differences in the Morrocan incident of 1905 between the timelines are 1. Spain switches possitions mid way, and 2. France decides to support Spain, not the Sultan of Morroco. I did 1 because it allows the Carlists to come to power. 2. is because Spain is a better ally than Morroco for Germany. France becomes surrounded by Germany, Italy, and Spain.

Britain does become very concerned. There just isn't a logical opprotunity for war yet. When 1924 comes, Britain, unlike in OTL, joins immediately, not waiting for the invasion of Belgium (which won't actualy have to happen in this TL)

 

[reformer]

1914 continued: With France sourrounded, Italy has less to fear from joining the war on Germany's side. Reactionaries and exstreme Catholics support the move. Italy declares war.

The eastern front continues the same as in OTL, including the revolution.

Because of the flat route into province from Italy, the Germans have no need for the invasion of Beligium. Britain entered the war at the begin still, fearing the power of the German alliance.

The first major battle is a land and sea assault of Gibraltar, which has been more heavily fortified than in OTL. The fortress holds, but a sucessful blokade is organised with both Italian and Spanish ships. This makes it impossible for Britain to send troops to assist the French in Province. To break the blokade, the British send a fleet to the straights. Before they arrive, German U boats mined the water directly west of Gibralter, and over half of the ships are destroyed. The remaining survivors are persued by Spanish vessels. The fleet is forced to retreat to a port in Portugual. When the remaining vessels are attacked in harbour. The Portuguse take this as a serious threat and decide to take a more active role in the war by invading spain.

The British, now very angry at the alliance, have no ability to aid the French in the south, But they can help the invasion of Spain. Of course, Portugual is much weaker than France is in OTL, so the front goes less well then it does in reality. Trench lines are formed not in Spainsh territory, but in newly formed Portuguese territory. Germany and Italy send troops to the Portuguese front, which becomes almost as active as the French and Russian fronts.

In province in southern France, the French army is weak with no British assistance. Soon all of the ports, including Marseille, are under Italian and German controll. There is already a strong reactionary movement there, so the occupation is purposely very loose and friendly so that the reactionary movement becomes more appealing in that area of France.

British Somaliland is invaded by the Italian Somaliland. Tunisia is invaded by Italian Libya. Algeria is invaded by Spain. With all of the ports in southern France captured, no new troops can be sent to Africa. Thus the north African French colonies fall easily. A combined army of mostly German and Ottoman (including both Turkish and Arab soldiers) troops invade Eygypt, with strong early sucess. The Germans purposely allow the Ottomons to lead the forces, so that the early victories seem to be Islamic sucesses. This makes the war popular in the Islamic world. When Britain tries to incite a revolt in Arabia, there is little interest. German Tanganyika invades Portuguese east Africa sucessfully.

German U-Boats mine the beaches of northern France and Spain to keep the British from sending reinforcements to Province. The British attempt a landing on northern France. About a fourth of the ships are stopped by mines. A surprise attack of the German and Spainish navy with first submarines and then battleships take out about another fourth. Fearing further traps (the invasion force had not yet reached the coast), the invasion is called off.

 

[Grey Wolf]

the flat route into province from Italy

If by this you mean Provence, where is the flat route from Italy ? Therre is a reason why the Franco-Italian border is where it is, and that is the lower Alpine mountains etc. The coastal strip may be flatter but it is very narrow. France would certainly have to commit a fair sized force to defending this frontier, but it would be nowhere near the size of the force needed to defend an open ground one. And, its not much of an invasion route to say true.

What may work instead is that a combination of Spanish, Italian and German fronts wear down the French who have to position smaller but strong enough armies on the two Southern fronts, and thus perhaps weaken the Northern one too much. However, we are talking the Spanish and Italian armies here - although in your ATL at least the former would have had some recent success and some elan from that

Grey Wolf

 

[reformer]

At the begining of the first world war, Germany was still hopping for a quick lightning war like the ones they fought in the 19th century. With their mobalization and Italian help (the Italians fought quite well in WWI. they would have fought well under the Germans) the Germans would have entered Provence before the French army set up serious resistance. After that, reinforcements could come it with the strip of land behind their lines. This could also be accumpanied by a small marine invasion of Provence before the troops arrive to have parts of Provence already secure.

What about the concept of north Africa being sucessfully invaded? Is this remotely plausible?

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

At the begining of the first world war, Germany was still hopping for a quick lightning war like the ones they fought in the 19th century. With their mobalization and Italian help (the Italians fought quite well in WWI. they would have fought well under the Germans) the Germans would have entered Provence before the French army set up serious resistance. After that, reinforcements could come it with the strip of land behind their lines. This could also be accumpanied by a small marine invasion of Provence before the troops arrive to have parts of Provence already secure.

What about the concept of north Africa being sucessfully invaded? Is this remotely plausible?

France's empire is vulnerable, but Algeria is heavily defended - if Spain and Italy made their move after the French corps in Algeria was shipped to France (per historical plan) it would be much easier.

An invasion of Egypt is possible, but very difficult, unless executed very early before the defenses were built up.

 

[reformer]

The attack on Eygypt takes a very long time. Also, Algeria may be well defended, but I doubt that it could resist an attack from divisions upon divisions colonial troops from the Spain and Italy while being isolated from France.

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

The attack on Eygypt takes a very long time. Also, Algeria may be well defended, but I doubt that it could resist an attack from divisions upon divisions colonial troops from the Spain and Italy while being isolated from France.

Italy and Spain don't have "divisions upon divisions" of colonial troops, and there is a large French population in Algeria to draw upon. Again, if the historical French reinforced corps is there, that's 65,000 French regulars, plus colonial troops - more than enough to defend against any potential attack. Attacking from Libya is virtually impossible due to terrain, and attacking from Morocco is not easy either.

I'm really not sure an attack on Egypt has too much chance for success, and a long fight will favor the British. If an attack succeeds, it would have to be early, large, and decisive. Historically, the Ottomans did not concentrate their strength in this way but rather dissipated their energies in weak attacks on multiple fronts. If they had concentrated on one, they would have made a big difference - Egypt would have been one option, the Caucasus another.

 

[reformer]

Wow, its been a long time, well, here it continues:

1925: Carlos VII of Spain dies. Jaime III replaces him as the new Carlist king.

The Italian/Austrian/German/Ottoman/Spanish alliance continues to slowly move forward on all fronts.

There is a new Islamic nationalist movement throughout the Middle East and north Africa. It takes severall formes. In some places, it is very religiously fudamentalist. In other places, it is a movement to restore the former power to the Ottomans. In yet other places it is a nationalist movement twardes creating a all consuming Islamic state. The movement spreads very quickly, greatly incouraged by the Reactinaries in Europe.

Revolts spread throughout north Africa, breaking apart the French and British colonial troops. All areas except for Eygypt fall into Italian, Spanish, or Ottoman hands with the assistance of Germany.

With many of the trade routes blocked, France and Britain decide to cease trade with the rest of the world. Their excuse is submarne warfare and blocades. The real reason is to try to pressure the Americans into entering the war.

In the U.S., Wilson is trying desperately to avoide entering the war. Congress and the American people finally force him into entering the war so that they can return to proper trade.

Instead of sending very many troops, Wilson instead provides humanitarian aid and tries to negotiate peace talks. This makes him very unpopular in both Europe and the U.S.

1916: The Suez Canal is captured by Ottoman troops.

Troops previously stationed in northern Africa return to Europe to fight in the major fronts. Trade continues to be blocked to try to get Wilson to send serious military aid.

German, Spanish, and Italian ships begin to attack Southern African and Indian ports.

With the Russian revolution, Britain and France's cause seemed hopeless. They were at the brink of defeat.

In the U.S., a minor politicians gains the Republican nomination because he promisses the quickest possible return to proper trade and order. He is elected by a landslide.

1917: To bring the war to a close, America invades through nuetral Belgium and Denmark, gaining more enemies along the way.

To be continued, of course

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Very interesting TL - I look forward to more. At last, a WWI TL that doesn't hand half of Asia Minor to Greece!

 

[reformer]

Very interesting TL - I look forward to more. At last, a WWI TL that doesn't hand half of Asia Minor to Greece!

I don't quite get how people think that Greece can become so powerful. It was a backword divided nation.

 

[reformer]

sorry to bring back such an old thread, but is there any possbility that a reactionary movement may have become popular in Europe with a focus on traditional nationalism rather than exstreme socialism and facism or maybe as opposition?

 

[reformer]

Of all my TLs, this is the one that I think had the most potential. So I'm bringing it back to see if I can get a following.

1917: Treaty of Baltimore. Deligates from around the world meet to decide the outcome of the war. Because Germany and Italy won on almost all of the fronts, the nations agree that no country should pay reperations that are too steep. Italy and Spain form the National-Royalist Confederation. It is more or less a strong alliance of reactionary imperial states. North Africa is granted theoretical independance, and the confederation, who still has bassic controll, encourages a unification of Islamic states which shares devided power between the Ottoman Empire, local tribal leaders, and a new democratic system. Most north African States join, and Arabian Nationalist join, but the Ottomans refuse to join. Revolts rise throughout the empire. The new nation is very badly organised, and is still bassically an Italian and spanish Satelite. The Islamic unity found during the war begins to destroy the religious boundries between the Shiattes and Sunnis.

 

[ArchdukeofAustria]

This has alot of potential; I'm interested in a Carlist Spain and European monarchies lasting out the 20th century. I have a few questions, though.

What's going on in the balkans and A-H?

Why are the CP's giving the North African colonies independence, theoretical or not, if they've put so much effort into gaining them?

 

[reformer]

To gain North Africa, they put strength into the Islamic nationalist movement. They've been told it was a revolution. Bassically, they're following a specific type of imperialism which is rule through another power, and it makes a good deal of sense, is often more effective, and tends to last longer. The reactionaries have accused Britain of being too harsh in there empire, and they're trying to introduce new blood into imperialism.

As for the Balkins, there is naturally a crisis, which I will go into more depth with soon. Now that Democracy has become less popular, many of the revolutionaries in the Austro-Hungarian Empire have turned Communist. The world is becoming polarised between the reactionaries, supported by Rome and Madrid and to a lesser exstent Cairo and Tunis, and the Communists, who as of yet have no country which supports them. Bassically a world of radicals.

The Austrians have not been able to take advantage of the growing reactionary movement, and are thus loosing ground. The Balkins have split into three factions: Ones who want to join either Italy or as an independant state in the confederation, ones who want to join the new Islamic state, and ones who wish to become an independant communist country.