The Confederacy always talked about Theodore Roosevelt as being a "Yankee Kaiser" and whenever they mentioned Franklin Roosevelt, they often made the suggestion that if he weren't crippled then he might've been elected president. Given that FDR was a Socialist in the books, I've often found myself wondering what an FDR Administration would look like in TL-191.
For the purpose of the thread, let's set up two points of divergence:
1) FDR does not contract polio (or Guillain-Barre Syndrome if speculation holds true)
2) Upton Sinclair makes a push for a third term in 1928 and is defeated by Calvin Coolidge.
What happens if FDR comes out as the Socialist nominee in 1932 during the Great Depression's onset? How does he handle the Confederate States of America, and more importantly how does Jake Featherston handle the Second Yankee Kaiser?
Assuming the Pacific War still happens (and I think it probably will The TL-191 Democrats seem to consist of a business faction and a militarist faction, and Coolidge is very much of the business faction, so I doubt he would have built up the U.S. military so much during his Presidency as to deter Japan) then I imagine FDR will be much more vigorous in prosecuting the war than Hoover was (i.e. FDR will actually try to win the war and not just fight for a status quo peace like Hoover did.) And given greater U.S. productive capability, I imagine that by 1934 the U.S. will have sufficiently outproduced the Japanese to have naval superiority in the Pacific and to seize the Marshall and Caroline Islands, by 1935 the U.S. probably takes the Marianas Islands and the Philippines, and by 1936 the U.S. has probably driven the Japanese out of the East Indies, Indochina, and Formosa. Japan probably throws in the towel after Formosa falls and asks for terms, accepting limitations on its military power and the loss of the territories the U.S. has already overrun in exchange for Japan getting to keep Manchuria and Korea and avoiding U.S. occupation of the Home Islands.
As a successful war president FDR should easily win reelection in 1936. (The U.S. economy will also be doing much better because of all the defense spending.)
As for FDR and the CSA, I think FDR will respond to Featherston trying to stir up rebellion in U.S. occupied Kentucky, Sequoyah, and Houston, by having the U.S. ship arms to the African-Confederate population (possibly setting off a full fledged Second Red Rebellion.) That will weaken the CSA and force Featherston to dedicate his army to counter-insurgency rather than conventional war, so it won't be ready for war with the U.S. by 1941. (With the CSA weaker, Featherston won't be able to devote as much resources to helping the secessionist rebels in Kentucky, Sequoyah, and Houston either, so the U.S. position in those states is probably stronger, and the U.S. will not be willing to seriously consider allowing a plebiscite in those territories.)
I don't know if FDR would run for a third term or not. Two popular, successful presidents have already tried and failed to achieve it, so FDR might take from that that the American people simply won't stand for a president seeking a third term. OTOH, the possibility of being the first president to win a third term (and thus achieving something that even his famous cousin couldn't do), would be very tempting to FDR, and the world situation in 1940 probably still looks pretty dicey with Britain and France snarling at Germany, and with their being ongoing nasty insurgencies in both U.S. and CSA territory, so FDR will have plausible reason for why he needs to seek another term.
