TL 191 Country Analogs
- Thread starter Marklin
- Start date
Hard one. The obvious is that post Great War II, the Germans will assume the role of the OTL Soviets...except that as the Americans are more Socialist, they're going to be the USSR as far as Germany is concerned.
Japan is going to basically be China: a major, authoritarian power...and one who the US has a mixed relationship with. They don't like 'em after the fighting over the Sandwich Islands, but I can see maybe ten or twenty years later the Americans making up to them in the interests of undermining Germany. Especially if Japan cloaks its rule in Asia in terms of anti-European-colonialism...I can totally see America and the Japanese funding colonial rebels in Germany's African territories.
And then, if the German Empire contracts/collapses...Japan and America become more hostile towards one another again. While still continuing to trade
Japan is going to basically be China: a major, authoritarian power...and one who the US has a mixed relationship with. They don't like 'em after the fighting over the Sandwich Islands, but I can see maybe ten or twenty years later the Americans making up to them in the interests of undermining Germany. Especially if Japan cloaks its rule in Asia in terms of anti-European-colonialism...I can totally see America and the Japanese funding colonial rebels in Germany's African territories.
And then, if the German Empire contracts/collapses...Japan and America become more hostile towards one another again. While still continuing to trade
None of these analogs are precise and, in many cases, the TL-191 nations are often mixes of OTL nations' roles. But here goes:
-United States: mix of France (a republic which came into the 20th Century humiliated in a previous war and guided by revanchism), the USSR (the rival power that was the direct enemy of TTL's white supremacist genocidal power; suffers major losses and a climactic Stalingrad-like battle at Pittsburgh; ends the war as one of the three world superpowers, along with being the most leftist power and the "standard bearer" for people's idea of Marxism) and Britain (an English-speaking world power with domestic politics divided three ways between moderate and reformist leftism, conservative capitalism, and a weak third party which is something in between).
-Confederate States: mix of Germany (a power that comes into the 20th Century swelled with pride from a decisive victory over its neighbor, only to be humbled and humiliated in the FGW, and then stain itself by starting the SGW, becoming a right-wing white supremacist dictatorship, and committing the century's defining genocide) and Russia (a conservative and backwards power on the fringes of European civilization; despite demonstrating industrial growth, is still largely agrarian; despite being considered a key ally of the Western European powers, is looked down on by them as reactionary and having a distasteful social system; experiences a communist revolution in the midst of the FGW).
-Texas: Poland (a part of a neighboring power a la Germany/Russia, despite having a distinct cultural identity and an undercurrent of wanting independence; the site of TTL's most infamous concentration camp formed when it was controlled by the right-wing genocidal dictatorship it was then a part of; achieves its independence after the SGW, but becomes a satellite of its superpower neighbor).
-Mexico: Romania/Hungary/Bulgaria (a minor power and satellite of its stronger neighbor which is swept up into joining their side even after said neighbor becomes a warmongering dictatorship; is complicit in TTL's Holocaust).
-Germany: mix of the USA (one of the three world superpowers; the fast-rising new, young industrial and military power of the 20th Century which stands as a colossus after the war and will likely be the biggest influence on western culture; "undefeated," so to speak, in the two great wars, which may foster a groundswelling of patriotism; was the first to develop and use the atomic bomb, which is both a testament to its scientific prowess and something that'll haunt them for decades as they are faced with the accusation that the atomic bombings constituted war crimes) and the Soviet Union (despite holding sway over Europe, was badly hurt during the war and will need a lot of time to recover)
-Britain: Japan (imperial island nation that was the last of the defeated SGW powers to surrender, was a major naval power, and had one last stand before going down in a blaze of multiple atomic bombings; transitioned from parliamentary democracy to militaristic right-wing nationalist quasi-dictatorship in the years between the two Great Wars)
-France: Italy (the originator of this world's most...erm, "orthodox" form of right-wing authoritarianism, with Action Francaise being equivalent to Italian Mussolini-style fascism in its early influence and its role as harbinger of something even worse)
-Austria-Hungary: France (a 19th Century power that has seen itself decline, relatively, from its previous position of power, but by virtue of being on the winning side of the two Great Wars, can still be a fairly influential regional power, even though its dependent on its allies to do so)
-Russia: China (a geographically large nation and potential major power, but spends most of the 20th Century as a chaotic basket case plagued by civil war, invasion, defeat and humiliation by foreign powers, and political radicalism. Hurting badly at the end of the war and is a mess, but once they somehow manage to get their shit together, the world better watch out).
-Japan: mix of USA (one of the three world superpowers which emerged from the SGW the least domestically damaged from the war, with all of its internal economic strength and infrastructure intact; a geographically isolated, yet extremely patriotic, militaristic, and potentially overconfident military power which has not yet tasted defeat in war) and China (despite being a superpower, is a geopolitically isolated, internationally distrusted pariah nation which has burned a lot of bridges with the rest of the world; authoritarian and harsh, at least toward its imperial subjects; the target of nationalist resistance from smaller Asian nations)
-United States: mix of France (a republic which came into the 20th Century humiliated in a previous war and guided by revanchism), the USSR (the rival power that was the direct enemy of TTL's white supremacist genocidal power; suffers major losses and a climactic Stalingrad-like battle at Pittsburgh; ends the war as one of the three world superpowers, along with being the most leftist power and the "standard bearer" for people's idea of Marxism) and Britain (an English-speaking world power with domestic politics divided three ways between moderate and reformist leftism, conservative capitalism, and a weak third party which is something in between).
-Confederate States: mix of Germany (a power that comes into the 20th Century swelled with pride from a decisive victory over its neighbor, only to be humbled and humiliated in the FGW, and then stain itself by starting the SGW, becoming a right-wing white supremacist dictatorship, and committing the century's defining genocide) and Russia (a conservative and backwards power on the fringes of European civilization; despite demonstrating industrial growth, is still largely agrarian; despite being considered a key ally of the Western European powers, is looked down on by them as reactionary and having a distasteful social system; experiences a communist revolution in the midst of the FGW).
-Texas: Poland (a part of a neighboring power a la Germany/Russia, despite having a distinct cultural identity and an undercurrent of wanting independence; the site of TTL's most infamous concentration camp formed when it was controlled by the right-wing genocidal dictatorship it was then a part of; achieves its independence after the SGW, but becomes a satellite of its superpower neighbor).
-Mexico: Romania/Hungary/Bulgaria (a minor power and satellite of its stronger neighbor which is swept up into joining their side even after said neighbor becomes a warmongering dictatorship; is complicit in TTL's Holocaust).
-Germany: mix of the USA (one of the three world superpowers; the fast-rising new, young industrial and military power of the 20th Century which stands as a colossus after the war and will likely be the biggest influence on western culture; "undefeated," so to speak, in the two great wars, which may foster a groundswelling of patriotism; was the first to develop and use the atomic bomb, which is both a testament to its scientific prowess and something that'll haunt them for decades as they are faced with the accusation that the atomic bombings constituted war crimes) and the Soviet Union (despite holding sway over Europe, was badly hurt during the war and will need a lot of time to recover)
-Britain: Japan (imperial island nation that was the last of the defeated SGW powers to surrender, was a major naval power, and had one last stand before going down in a blaze of multiple atomic bombings; transitioned from parliamentary democracy to militaristic right-wing nationalist quasi-dictatorship in the years between the two Great Wars)
-France: Italy (the originator of this world's most...erm, "orthodox" form of right-wing authoritarianism, with Action Francaise being equivalent to Italian Mussolini-style fascism in its early influence and its role as harbinger of something even worse)
-Austria-Hungary: France (a 19th Century power that has seen itself decline, relatively, from its previous position of power, but by virtue of being on the winning side of the two Great Wars, can still be a fairly influential regional power, even though its dependent on its allies to do so)
-Russia: China (a geographically large nation and potential major power, but spends most of the 20th Century as a chaotic basket case plagued by civil war, invasion, defeat and humiliation by foreign powers, and political radicalism. Hurting badly at the end of the war and is a mess, but once they somehow manage to get their shit together, the world better watch out).
-Japan: mix of USA (one of the three world superpowers which emerged from the SGW the least domestically damaged from the war, with all of its internal economic strength and infrastructure intact; a geographically isolated, yet extremely patriotic, militaristic, and potentially overconfident military power which has not yet tasted defeat in war) and China (despite being a superpower, is a geopolitically isolated, internationally distrusted pariah nation which has burned a lot of bridges with the rest of the world; authoritarian and harsh, at least toward its imperial subjects; the target of nationalist resistance from smaller Asian nations)
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The fact that many switch roles between wars lends some credence to the "Turtledove changed his mind" speculation.
In the FGW, we can add Canada as an analogue of Belgium (with the Quebecois as the Flemish and the Anglo-Canadians as the Walloons; it is hard to say in the SGW) and Brazil as an analogue of the United States (big country that comes in late and tips the balance decisively towards one side; it's implied more than once that 191 Brazil is more stable, more industrialized and more militarily powerful than OTL Brazil, a sort of monarchical mirror of OTL US, since it's still an empire).
The Mormons are the Irish in the FGW and the Chechens in the SGW.
Haiti is unusual because it is a Poland analogue in both wars. On the other extreme, the Ottomans are very hard to place into one OTL role.
DBE has China occupied by Japan until the Fourth Pacific War (1967-69) in After the End.
The correct answer would be "never".
For one, we don't even know if the Qing fell on schedule. It is never stated what kind of regime rules China, but HT seems to work with the idea that a divided USA would (somehow) lead to republicanism not being as popular in the time leading to *WW1 (France still became a republic, but Mexico and Brazil didn't). It joins the Entente as IOTL, and as IOTL, it's stated that this is little more than an empty gesture. Post-war, it's in a list of international areas in "turmoil", but this list includes both countries in civil war (Russia) and at war with each other (South America, and more especifically, Chile and Argentina). Then there is a mention that Japan is bombing China in the 1920s and that Japan has acquired hegemony over it in the 1930s, but by the time *WW2 rolls around Japan can't throw its full might against Britain because it still has "designs" on China, so the matter must have not been completely settled.
The wikia says that Manchuria and Mongolia are mentioned as being annexed and under some kind of Japanese presence in the interwar period respectively, but I've found no mention of that in any of the books, using the search function from Google Books.
