These are just some ramblings about last nights episode.
Although HBO's Succession is not focused on alt-politics the last few episodes have centered around an alt-2020 election. I assume it is the 2020 election since the show's first season premiered in 2018 and there has only been one single-term Republican president in office referred to as "the Raisin" since. If the show began in "the present" (i.e. 2018) this should be the 2020 election. There are a few interesting alt-history/politics points:
Although HBO's Succession is not focused on alt-politics the last few episodes have centered around an alt-2020 election. I assume it is the 2020 election since the show's first season premiered in 2018 and there has only been one single-term Republican president in office referred to as "the Raisin" since. If the show began in "the present" (i.e. 2018) this should be the 2020 election. There are a few interesting alt-history/politics points:
- Firstly the covid pandemic is not mentioned in the show, so let's assume it didn't happen (especially since the show is taking place in 2020). This alone changes quite a bit of politics/history.
- "The Raisin"is an old-school Republican who only serves a single term due to health issues. So,
- How did he win in 2016? In OTL Trump's win was both very close and very unexpected. And it had to do a lot with the candidate's character. If we assume the Obama administration happened (i.e. everything upto 2015-16ish is the same as OTL). for an "old-school" Republican to win in 2016 the Dems would have had to have a worse candidate than Clinton or screw things up even more than OTL during the campaign. Either way, it would have to have been very close. If the Obama administration didn't happen or the POD goes further back... then it is easier to understand but it is not as interesting to discuss.
- Also, a President not running for a second term is not something that has happened in recent memory, and would likely have repercussions. I'm just not sure which ones.
- With regards to the candidates:
- Jeryd Menken, the Republican candidate, appears in season 3 as a dark horse candidate who rises to the top thanks to ATN's (i.e. Fox News) backing. He is described, in the show's own words as a “YouTube provocateur” and “aristo-populist” who talks about “burning Korans and licensing press credentials"; other characters refer to him as a "nightmare" and someone who believes "the conspiracy"... whatever the conspiracy is. Although he is meant to be a Trump stand-in, Menken seems to initially have a bit more political experience and is both younger and more hip.
- For the Democrats, Gil Eavis is introduced in season 1 as a potential candidate. Eavis is a left-wing populist - meant to be a bit of a Bernie Sanders stand-in - although he has ties to the Roy (Murdoch) family and their media empire, which appears to ultimately lose him the nomination to Daniel Jimenez. A young Hispanic candidate with a progressive panache similar to Obama, Cory Booker, or Pete Buttigieg.
- So instead of having a 2020 election where the two candidates were the oldest in history, you have one with two young-ish candidates.
- Conor Roy campaigns as an independent but doesn't even get 6% in Alaska and concedes early on. He doesn't seem to be running for the Libertarians - who are not mentioned - although their philosophies align. At best he got Gary Johnson's 2016 numbers (above 3% of the popular vote). But if he had, Connor should have been ecstatic at that result, so he likely got less than Jorgensen's 2020 share.
- In the 2020 (or current) election:
- Season 4 Spoilers:
- The election is not over (it appears to be too close to call on a few key states, notably Wisconsin) but our FoxNews / Murdoch family stand-in has preemptively called it for the Republican Jeryd Menken. This is going to very likely be a faux pas on the Roy's part and the consequences will be tremendous. Even then Menken would have won the election because a fire at a Wisconsin vote count center leaves a gaping hole of roughly 100,000 lost absentee ballots, which would have likely favored Jimenez... given that Michigan has been won by less than 15,000 votes (in 2016) this is a major event that will be contested.
- Another note for the keen eye is that Jimenez won Michigan and Pennsylvania and was ahead in Georgia. If that is the case, the electoral vote math does not add up. Unless Menken won another state... however that should have been very surprising and news that would have appeared to be relevant. More likely the electoral map looks a bit different. So Manken can win with 173 votes and still loose those three states.
- The election is not over (it appears to be too close to call on a few key states, notably Wisconsin) but our FoxNews / Murdoch family stand-in has preemptively called it for the Republican Jeryd Menken. This is going to very likely be a faux pas on the Roy's part and the consequences will be tremendous. Even then Menken would have won the election because a fire at a Wisconsin vote count center leaves a gaping hole of roughly 100,000 lost absentee ballots, which would have likely favored Jimenez... given that Michigan has been won by less than 15,000 votes (in 2016) this is a major event that will be contested.