The Strongest Italy I Could Manage

Faeelin

Banned
I liked the TL, and I don't recall any overt problems, at least with the POD.

Well, Abdul would've pitched a fit at the idea that a civil war in the 1420s would have led to the collapse of the Ottoman Empire.

The restored Byzantine Empire, which just sat there (after easily overrunning Anatolia) looking Greek.

The English conquest of the Low countries in the early 16th century, although that could, I think, be justified.

The Renaissance politicking.

I think it's doable, and could be fun. Dunno if I'd go the same way, though.
 

Admiral Matt

Gone Fishin'
Hrm...

No offense Scott, but I think he was talking to me. And anyway, I didn't think you pushed likelihood that much.

Mister Prankster - Thanks. It turns out that my understanding of the 1848 revolutions in Italy was off, especially in terms of King Carlo Alberto's role in the whole debacle. Coincidentally, that was exactly the part I relied on Wikipedia for when I was researching it. Go figure.
 
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Admiral Matt

Gone Fishin'
Alright. I believe I'll start with an overview of Italy and 1848 in OTL, and why I feel the original POD is... inadequate.

Carlo Alberto Amedeo was raised a liberal. Born in Paris in 1798, he was educated in Geneva and Imperial Paris, and served as a lieutenant in Napoleon's dragoons from 1814. From this, and from the fact that he tried to grant Sardinia-Piedmont a constitution in 1821 during his stint as regent (under his childless predecessor, Carlo Felice), one might conclude that he remained a liberal. One would be wrong.

A brief digression: The Kings of Sardinia in the modern era.
Vittorio Amedeo III: 1773-1796
Carlo Emanuele IV: 1796-1802
Vittorio Emanuele I: 1802-1821
Carlo Felice: 1821-1831
Because none of the sons of Vittorio Amedeo had sons themselves, the crown defaulted to the Savoy-Carignano Branch. So...
Carlo Alberto: 1831-

From the moment Vittorio Emanuele I returned to Turin, wearing the peruke and pigtail of the ancien regime, he set about making his the most reactionary state of post-Napoleonic Italy. French law and French appointees were eliminated, aristocratic privilege reinstated, and the tearing down of "Jacobin" bridges was debated. The Jesuits came back to the Piedmont and the Jews went back into the ghettos. Attempts to derive support directly from the populace simply ceased. If they approved of the growing strength of the state and military or the hints at "Italian" patriotism that would be good. If not... well, that was what grape-shot was for.

It is hard to be sure when Carlo Alberto took on the family conservatism, but the fallout of his aborted attempt to impose a constitution likely had something to do with it. The new king sent him off to fight with the French army in Spain, putting down a liberal revolution there. When Carlo Felice finally died in 1831, Carlo Alberto ascended the throne just as the attempted revolutions of 1830-31 were meeting their inglorious ends. Somewhere in between, he had developed an abiding distrust of liberalism and radicalism of all stripes.

Economically, he was not a total loss, and worked to break down customs barriers within the state. Still, while certain liberal ideas still appealed, Carlo Alberto had no sympathies towards the liberals themselves. The words "nation," "liberty," and even "Italy" were banned as subversive. He persecuted Mazzini's nationalist movement, and had to be dragged every step of the way in 1848. When he finally agreed to a constitution it was startlingly conservative and had to be called a Statuto in deference to his horror at the word constitution. He had to be coerced into involving himself in the "liberation" of Italy and when he did so it was too slow and much too late.

"Among the indigenous princes, the number one enemy of Italian freedom was and is Charles Albert. The Italians should bear in mind and repeat every hour the old saying: 'God watch over my friends, so that I can watch over my enemies.' From Ferdinand of the House of Bourbon, there is nothing to fear; he has for a long time been discredited. Charles Albert on the other hand calls himself popously the 'liberator of Italy' while on the very people he is supposed to be liberating he imposes as a condition the yoke of his rule."
-Karl Marx

Suffice it to say, I think Karl got this one right.
 
Right and more than right. Pity that in OTL the unity of Italy came to be on the bayonets of the Piedmontese (and a good portion of the woes that came later started from this).
Ferdinando of the Two Sicilies had a bad press in proportion to the good one that Carlo Alberto got. He was not a bad man when he took the throne, and might have been a good king if the plottings of his family and his personal inclinations had not derailed the wagon (he also did a lot to modernize the south of Italy and to improve economy - including commissioning the first railway in Italy). The bad press he got mostly comes from the late 1830s, when he cancelled the contracts with the British for the Sicilian sulphur, and rinegotiated them with the French: the British establishment never forgave him.

How to get a better a stronger Italy to be born? I give you three possible Pods in the 19th century:
- Venice somehow survives the Napoleonic wars, and is restored at Vienna, maybe with some territorial gain. On the strength of the British support (when the doge was in exile at Corfu, and later during the congress of Vienna), the republic becomes a staunch British ally, liberalize and starts to modernize in earnest. See here: https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=61114
- a better (and luckier) 1848: the Hungarians make up their mind early, the Milanese insorgents do not let Casati and the establishment stampede them into offering the crown to Carlo Alberto, and Gabriele Manin is a bit more decisive in Venice. The Habsburg empire spirals down into a protracted civil war, while the success of insurgency sends all the Italian princes (or at least the northern ones) packing.
- a more pro-active interventionism by the liberal powers in 1830 (this is described in The Talleyrand Plan - and it is a novel and interesting scenario)

If you want to have an earlier POD, I think the best one is a more successful first war of Morea (and a shorter one, at least for Venice, who signs an early separate peace with the sultan in 1688 or 1689, and later enters the war for the Spanish succession).
 

Admiral Matt

Gone Fishin'
Alas, it is not to be, milord Kalvan.

The Italy I'm making must be a recognizable one. If it is also a pleasant one, it will not be any fault of mine.
 

Admiral Matt

Gone Fishin'
June 4, 1815
Corsica


Her given name was Maria Saveria, but her father just called her Rabulliona, and laughed when he said it. [1] To her mother she was usually "Mia Croce." [2] She preferred her father's nickname. If it came down to it, she preferred her father.

She was running.

Somewhere behind her was a pair of thin little-girl shoes, so the sound of barefeet slapping on cobbles and squelching in sandy mud followed her downhill. Her feet, oddly long and thin (like, truth be told, the rest of her) sent neat jets of water flying out to mark her path. It was raining now, and she hadn't gone back, so there was nothing for it but to get well out of earshot before trouble started.

Her mother would never have believed it, but there had been a long aching moment of hesitation before she burst down the hill, long black hair flying. Saveria had come out of the villa meaning merely to walk over a few hills to play in the desultory little patch of trees that passed as nearest thing to a wood in the area. There might have been other children there, though probably only boys. The prospect didn't particularly bother her. She had no more problem with boys her own age, who tended to be afraid of her, than she did with the older ones, who ignored her entirely.

Her plans had changed the moment she cleared the wall around the garden, and her view expanded from one of Ajaccio to the east to the sea stretching out southwards. The day had not been entirely cloudless, but now a storm was coming at her in a rush. A dark grey beast with a black underbelly, it was already sending a wind out ahead of it. Her dress had whipped up against her for an instant when she stopped. Against all the imaginings of her mother, she really didn't enjoy ruining her clothes. To go out now would mean a muddied skirt at least, if not torn, and that would mean the end of the poor garment. Saveria's mother would not have her daughter seen in a "ruined" dress. As she was wont to say, "No child with the cousins she has will go about in rags."

So Saveria hung motionless at the point where the hill dropped from the garden wall toward the last pastures and the sea, and she watched the storm come. The storm seemed to her a personal affront. She had been hoping for an escape from the villa for three endless days now. More and more, propriety had forced her away from her father's protection into the hands of her mother, who was grimly determined to forge something like a woman from her troublesome child. This year had been the worst, and sometimes it seemed her mother intended for her not to go playing in the hills at all (it had not yet occurred to Saveria that this might be literal truth). She had sat primly, and deferred politely, and now finally she was free and out of confinement and... and... this!

Decision came with the first faint splattering of raindrops, driven by the wind to stinging intensity. She blinked and stepped back, as if from an attack. That set it. It was a second's intuitive leap from the thought that the storm seemed meant to spoil her fun to the sincere belief that it was meant to drive her back into that house. Go back and spend the day bored and fidgeting - for a storm? Let it blow her away if it could!

There had been no transition from standing on the hill to sprinting down it. One moment she was a picture waif, looking only slightly out of place in a girls dress, the next she was all scrawny flying arms and legs, hair out behind like a pennant.

At first she angled south toward the wood, where she'd meant to go in the first place. The wind though, was blowing into her side, a constant galling interference. There was no option but to turn into it and let it do its worst. She shot down one long hill into a disappointing lull then up the next into a blast of spray already sharper than the last. A thought flickered through her mind for an instant - when had a storm ever come so suddenly this time of year, much less one like this? She spent no worry on it. She was caught up in a joyous defiance. Energy seemed to be in the air, the storm egging her on to greater feats just as she defied it to stop her. Stop her! She laughed.

Then she was at the top of a rise she new, a long slow curve down to the water with a lip curling up just above the stony beach. The heart of the storm had come, and the light of mid-evening was almost obliterated in the face of it. A brilliant bolt of lightning slit through the darkness and left a faint glowing circle of light in the spot where it struck the ocean. In its light a cluster of dark shapes jerked startled on the beach at the light and thunder. She laughed again, louder. It was such a scene! Wind won't do it, or water, or mud, so put out the lights and make a big noise and - sure - let's have some mysterious shapes in the distance. That will make the little girl go running back home!

She let out an intense burst of speed, and flew down to the beach. She ran straight at an awkward rock pressing out of the scrub and hurdled it, heedless of what might lay behind it. It was the sort of idiotic rush that only a child could survive. When the ground turned to brown liquid beneath her she didn't bother with anything so prosaic as balance, but rode on her side five feet, changed direction by grabbing a crippled dwarf of a tree, and was up and charging into the rain again without a pause.

Below her the dark shapes caught sight of her. Froze. Scattered. She rode the hill as much as she ran on it, and straight into their midst. Somewhere... there! Was a rock dramatically thrust up just beyond the lip of the cliff; you could jump that far if you had the speed....

She was at the nadir, coming up the lip, and then leaping like some night ape: arms and legs spread-eagled, brown eyes wide and alive. The little creatures on the beach cried out, at least one in obvious terror. There camp a damp *fwoomp* sound. She landed on all fours with her long fingered hands already gripping the where she knew the edges of the rock were. The figures around her resolved themselves into gun-armed men, staring at her open-mouthed, and boats pulled onto the rocks behind them.

"Gesumaria, Pizzina! [3] I could have killed you!"

It was the final touch. Her laughter came again, cold and high this time like the shrieking cry of a valkyrie. And with that, Maria Saveria Buonaparte turned and disappeared from history.

Or at least from a decade of it.

* * * * * * * * * * * * *

Roberto Luccarini dropped his rifle with shaking hands. Let the others lead the way on this one. That had been far too close. The men around them were already set about turning what they had just seen into a soldier's myth, but he... He would carry the flag for the duration.

A moment later he hefted the pole and glanced between the rock thrust like a thumb against the sky, and the tricolor-shield-and-crown the wind was trying to pull from his hand. He shrugged, "Viva il re!"

[1] If you get that reference, it's a gold star.

[2] "My cross," in Italian.

[3] Jesus and Mary, girl! Or at least my token effort in Sardinian dialect.

[4] Trying to get the image...

125px-Flag_of_Italy_%281861-1946%29_crowned.svg.png
 

Admiral Matt

Gone Fishin'
...the seizure of Corsica by a ragtag collection of poorly armed Sardinians near the end of the "100 days" is commonly regarded in modern textbooks as perhaps the first definite blow for Italian unification. However, as noble as the idea may appear to modern nationalists today, it is purely anachronistic. The men seizing the island appear to have been almost without exception unpatriotic, and if they felt loyalty to anything, it was their own tiny kingdom. More to the point, it is clear that they treated the attack as an act of conquest and not one of liberation... It was only much later, in the mid-1840s that the Unification myth began to be constructed, and there can be no doubt that the well-known "Vision at Ajaccio" was invented at this time.

The success of the Savoys in pressing their right by conquest appears to have largely been due to the fact that none of the powers especially cared about the fate of the island one way or the other. The French were of course opposed, but they had larger concerns than the return of a poor and rebellious island...

Nor was the union of the Tyrrhenian Isles anything like a happy marriage. Corsica had had no interest in being under the rule of Genoa, and the period under France had done nothing to make the idea of foreign rulers more palatable. And they did indeed appear to have considered their rulers foreign. While it may seem counterintuitive today, while Italy as a nation state has been established fact for a century and a half, at the time virtually noone thought of the word Italy in anything other than the geographic sense. This was largely justified. Even at the time of unification fewer than one in forty "Italians" could speak their namesake language, and what few there were lived mostly in Tuscany and Rome. At the beginning of the century, the fraction was even smaller. Inhabitants of the peninsula spoke - and to some degree still speak - nearly a dozen dialetti, each nearly as distinct from its neighbors as are Spanish and Portuguese and Catalan. To clutter the picture even further, extensive communities of Greek, Albanian, Serbian, and Catalan speakers were scattered across the South of the peninsula, dating from the collapse of Byzantium or even earlier. In many places, even the word "Italia" was unknown.

The French had broken the military strength of the Corsican rebels when they acquired the island from Genoa in 1768, but separatist rebels quickly resurfaced after the transferal to the Kingdom of Sardinia. The Savoys had gained many new holdings in the peace, annexing Genoa and expanding to the east, but Corsica was by far the least worthwhile, requiring a virtual occupation army and providing virtually nothing in return... Were it not for Gian Carlo Buonaparte's move to Turin with his family in 1822 and the family's long subsequent involvement in the peninsula, the annexation would have to be considered an unqualified mistake...

-Excerpt:
Revanche: France, Germany, and Italy in the Modern Era
Nathan Swager
New Era Publishing
Seattle, Columbia, United States of America
 
Since the Savoys had been dumb enough to exchange Sicily for Sardinia after the war of Spanish succession, I can believe that they went and seized Corsica. Beautiful island, btw: great for tourism, and for cork. Nothing else, I'm afraid.
 
Remarks

As Italian I have some remarcs to do about the ucrony herself : Carlo Alberto wasn't progressist at all ( he was even more conservative than Metternich himself ! ), he was not intelligent, as all Savoy, was very bigot, too bigot to unify Italy taking Rome .
The state of royal army wasn't good at all ; it's very umprobable that we arrive to Marseille in a war against France : if we couldn't do it in 1940, when France was nearly vanquished by Germany .
Italy had also to coumpt with south banditism and was a poor country ; Kingdom of Italy couldn't even afford a realy succesfull colonial policy : the lost battle of Adua created a sense of frustation that favorised Fascism .
And an history similar to the one of the ucrony Italy would be a rich state of poor people, and we Italians wouldn't have the good standard of life that we have today .
Finally I think that the italian political class wouldn't be able to render Italy a great power ( Germans had Bismarck, we had to afford a fool Crispi ) .
 
Italy had Cavour, who - unfortunately - died quite young. And Crispi was not such a disaster as you depict him.

No contention on your appraisal of Carlo Alberto. He was a disaster: not very bright, bigot, introvert and conservative. The change in the Savoy line did not bring any luck.
 

Admiral Matt

Gone Fishin'
Alberto: Ayup. Your comments show much of the reason this TL is getting a face lift. Glad to have an Italian willing to comment, at any rate. Tell me if I say anything too stupid?

As Italian I have some remarcs to do about the ucrony herself : Carlo Alberto wasn't progressist at all ( he was even more conservative than Metternich himself ! ), he was not intelligent, as all Savoy, was very bigot, too bigot to unify Italy taking Rome .

Regarding C.A., he did apparently have liberal sympathies in his youth, though they seem to have been long gone by the time he ascended the throne. As for him not taking Rome, that wasn't him. He died before unification. It was his son Vittorio Emanuelle who abstained from taking Rome.

The state of royal army wasn't good at all ; it's very umprobable that we arrive to Marseille in a war against France : if we couldn't do it in 1940, when France was nearly vanquished by Germany .

Yes. The Italian military was almost shockingly bad in OTL and there were very strong reasons why this was so. I don't think they'll be marching into Marseilles in the revised version. Not unless something spectacular happens. We'll see.

Italy had also to coumpt with south banditism and was a poor country ; Kingdom of Italy couldn't even afford a realy succesfull colonial policy : the lost battle of Adua created a sense of frustation that favorised Fascism .

You're very right about the problems facing Italy, but I disagree on colonies. It couldn't afford France's colonial policy, or Britain's. I believe a "successful" colonial empire was possible, set within certain bounds. By way of example, losing the battle of Adowa involved a rather ridiculous amount of bad luck on the Italian side. For that matter had it not been for a translation error in the treaty text, Ethiopia would have signed itself into a loose Italian protectorate voluntarily. There would have been no battle of Adowa to lose.

I haven't ruled out something like Fascism. There were tremendous stresses working on Italian society.

And an history similar to the one of the ucrony Italy would be a rich state of poor people, and we Italians wouldn't have the good standard of life that we have today .

I have no idea what ucrony means. Something like "alternate," maybe?

Unfortunately, I think you are mostly correct. Where the old timeline left off, standards of living could not have been very good for the average Italian. Likely even worse than our TL. However, it left off in the 1950s when Italy was still badly underdeveloped in our own timeline. Half a century can change a lot in a country with a strong economy.

Finally I think that the italian political class wouldn't be able to render Italy a great power ( Germans had Bismarck, we had to afford a fool Crispi ) .

That's the nice thing about Great Men, isn't it? :)
 
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Admiral Matt

Gone Fishin'
Italy had Cavour, who - unfortunately - died quite young. And Crispi was not such a disaster as you depict him.

No contention on your appraisal of Carlo Alberto. He was a disaster: not very bright, bigot, introvert and conservative. The change in the Savoy line did not bring any luck.

Hrm... I only have a limited knowledge of his personality myself, which'll have to change if I'm going to write about him, eh? Could either of you point me in the direction of an online source? Or maybe PM me with a brief description of the man?

It's "piccina" and not "Pizzina"; I'd say "bambina", though

Yeah, but those are in Italian, right? I was trying to get it across in Sardinian dialect.
 
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