Wrong. They'll go "the Germans attacked our ships? Well then it's war!"
Why the Germans attacked the ships doesn't really matter any more then it did with the Reuben James or in 1917.
Because soon the Germans are shooting at American vessels escorting British convoys. And American vessels getting attacked by German submarines while hunting Japanese submarines in the Atlantic! And good American pilots helping the good British pilots "train" getting attacked by the Luftwaffe.
Calbear had fun with this one in a thread where you tried a similarly themed argument here:
How does this apply when Germany and Britain aren't at war? Why could the USN be escorting British convoys to the USSR? The public is not going to like or understand that, especially when there are safer routes to make deliveries and there is already a war on elsewhere. Germany isn't public enemy #1 anymore once the Japanese conduct Pearl Harbor and poking them when there is already a war on on the other side of the world isn't going to go well. Plus the US media did have a fair bit of leeway to leak stuff, as they did IOTL, including the Morgenthau Plan that scuppered that idea.
And here we go again, dismissing Nazi ideology and all the talk of "Mitteleurope" and a "third way" and everything...
Have you considered that Germany could make source everything it needed from Europe, so had to trade and even with autarkic tendencies they would still have to purchase abroad and try and strengthen trade ties for political reasons? Also all that talk perhaps was a means of justifying to the public Hitler's economic policies that bankrupted the nation and required domestic sourcing of ersatz materials instead, so rather that admit fault they just gussied it up as part of their nebulous ideology.
In reality, the Germans won't buy anything from the US in 1940-mid 1941 because everything they need they are getting from the Soviets and by the time they realize their existing stocks are not going to be enough, too late! Japan's bombed Pearl Harbor and the US can't spare anything from it's war effort. And arming the British. And helping the Sov-nevermind, that detail isn't important Mr. German Ambassador.
Why not? The USSR wasn't supplying everything they needed/wanted and its better to start sourcing abroad especially as they stop payments from 1941 on to avoid supplying Stalin in the run up to invasion. Once they invade they won't have Soviet supplies anymore, so its better to work out alternative sources in peace, plus there are benefits to reestablishing trade ties abroad to make it painful to cut them off again for businesses selling to them. Eventually the US can lower its deliveries, but now Germany has occupied Belgium and made peace with them, so the US cutting off trade would cut off German willingness to allow the Belgians to sell Congo rubber to the Allies, which is the only source for natural rubber once the Japanese seize most of East Asia.
No evidence that Hitler's declaration of war influenced their decision to disband. In fact, if there is peace in Europe in November 1940, then TTL they likely wind-up disbanding earlier. And have no incentive to reform after Pearl Harbor destroys isolationist sentiment in the US. So talk about a non-starter then.
They why did you mention that they disbanded immediately after Hitler declared war? Its not like they cannot agitate agains FDR for supporting the USSR against Germany when there was a war against Japan to focus on. They can still find ways to pursue their anti-FDR political agenda and needle him even after Pearl Harbor (perhaps later even because of it).
They wouldn't have started it. It would be a clear case of German aggression against British shipping. At least that is how it will play out in the newsreels.
Perhaps; even if that's the case, why would the US public want to DoW Germany then because they attacked British convoys shipping things to the USSR in a war zone?
And Germany. But then that's war, you know.
Doesn't stop them from agitating against it considering they agree ideologically with Fascism and hate Communism, so support the Fascists against Stalin.
Not in the newsreels they aren't! War time censorship is an amazing thing.
Except for the minor fact they know the US will be in shortly after them. Problem solved.
They didn't know that at all, especially considering that the US is kind of distracted by a war in Asia and of course so are they; beyond that they will remember how the US didn't support them in 1940 against Germany and Churchill is not around to cultivate that special relationship.
Prisoners and equipment returned as part of peace deal.
When has equipment being returned ever been part of a peace deal? Sure PoWs, which given the numbers vs. German PoWs held by Britain would probably end up with Britain paying reparations for their release, limiting their ability to afford to rearm and not necessarily getting the entire BEF back in to go, but equipment if forfeit and if they want back their old stuff they would probably have to pay a mint for it.
Why are the Nazis abandoning their ideology again? And why would they trust Hitler after all those treaty violations again?
What ideology? They cut deals with European powers all the time out of pragmatism. Denmark's government stayed in place the entire war and were even allowed to protect their Jews for a long time, while France was able to keep its fleet and half of its country after the armistice in 1940. They even got back PoWs that were being held and generally were part of the power structure until late 1942. The Dutch and Belgians (and Norwegians) don't have much choice but try and deal and the Dutch government wanted to make peace IOTL, but for Queen Wilhelmina's fears about losing the DEI; that would be a moot point once Britain exits the war and the Dutch would have no reason to believe the 1940 new order would be overturned, so would have to adapt to it.
The British have a precedent of signing a temporary peace to re-enter a war later. And Hitler has a precedent of violating every deal he makes. And the Dutch are considered sufficiently close to the Volksdeutch as to be capable of being Germanized, according to Nazi ideology, and thereby are eligible for annexation into the Reich.
Sure, hundreds of years before. This isn't 1815 anymore. Also there weren't plans to annex the Dutch and had every reason to deal with the existing government to secure their colonial empires and bring it into the trading bloc of the new Axis European order, rather that disrupt it. The plan to break up Belgium wasn't set until around 1942 after things had gone pear-shaped for the Axis and then it became fantasy plans. Here it makes much more sense to co-opt existing governments for the Germans, which exiled governments, especially the Dutch, were planning on.
A final point you dismissed earlier in relations to Barbarossa about the Luftwaffe: tactical airpower. IOTL Germany had 56 Bf110s for Barbarossa, where they did excellent work smashing up Soviet forces; ITTL without the BoB, Mediterranean theater, need to use them for night fighters and garrison Europe, etc. they would have over 500 for use in the East, probably about 10 times more than IOTL. That would be pretty big in terms of buffing out the tactical airpower and air support of the LW. Not only that, but in terms of Ju87s savings from all of the campaign losses of TL they would have at least double if not triple the number of OTL for Barbarossa. Again that is pretty huge in terms of increased tactical air support, as is the number of medium bombers, which would be close to double if not more. Having a LW twice as strong as IOTL on the Eastern Front would make a major difference even if the Soviet's are more prepared, as would all of the extra time to do maintenance, build up airbases and facilities, train new pilots so they wouldn't draw on instructors, rehab returned PoWs, rest their pilots and crews, do repairs, etc. Twice the total airpower and multiple times the tactical bomber forces would make a pretty significant difference. IOTL its not as though the Wehrmacht waltz unopposed through Soviet lines in June and July 1941 IOTL, they had a hard fight and won through much more than just Soviet partial mobilization. There were pretty significant gaps in the lines due to Soviet forces being spread out into multiple echelons, meaning the Axis had numerical superiority at the front, even though they were overall outnumbered; even if the Soviets were fully mobilized only a fraction of their 5 million men would be near the border and in combat, only as the first echelon was destroyed would the second move up and then the third after that. Except now the LW has double the strength to project to every point West of the Dvina-Dniepr, which would impact the ability for supplies to get forward or reinforcements, while disrupting defensive schemes deeper in the USSR.
Edit:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Messerschmitt_Bf_110_operational_history#Eastern_Front
Just 51 air worthy Bf 110s took part in the initial rounds of Operation Barbarossa, and all were from three units; ZG 26, Schnellkampfgeschwader 210 (redesignated from Erprobungsgruppe 210) and ZG 76. The Bf 110 rendered valuable support to the German Army by carrying out strike missions in the face of very heavy anti-aircraft artillery defences. A huge number of ground kills were achieved by Bf 110 pilots in the east. Some of the most successful were Leutnant Eduard Meyer, who received the Knight's Cross of the Iron Cross on 20 December 1941 for 18 aerial victories and 48 aircraft destroyed on the ground, as well as two tank kills. Oberleutnant Johannes Kiel was credited with 62 aircraft destroyed on the ground, plus nine tanks and 20 artillery pieces. He was later credited with a submarine sunk and three motor torpedo boats sunk.[40]
The number of Bf 110s on the Eastern Front declined further during and after 1942. Most units that operated the 110 did so for reconnaissance. Most machines were withdrawn to Germany for the Defense of the Reich operations.
Bf110s were pretty much gone by 1942 from the East due to the need to defend Germany and in the Mediterranean, but with no need for that ITTL, there would be hundreds from 1941 on and would do a lot of damage that they never got a chance to do IOTL; it was a superb light bomber/fighter-bomber up until 1943-44 and could have done a lot had it been around in the East.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schnellkampfgeschwader_210
Some 50 servicable Bf 110s took part in Operation Barbarossa from two units; Zerstörergeschwader 26 and Schnellkampfgeschwader 210. The Bf 110 gave valuable support to the German Army, carrying out strike missions in the face of heavy AA and ground defences. In the opening air strikes, on 22 June, SKG 210 claimed 344 Soviet aircraft destroyed, more than any other unit, for the loss of 7 Bf 110s destroyed and damaged.[1] A large number of ground kills were achieved by these Bf 110 units in the east. SKG 210 flew over the Central part of the front supporting the German army's encirclement and overrunning of Russian land forces in the Białystok and Minsk areas in the early phase of the campaign, and flew in support of the advancing Army Group Centre advance to Moscow in 1941. Between 22 June 1941 and 26 July 1941 the unit claimed to have destroyed 823 Soviet aircraft on the ground and 92 in the air, 2,136 vehicles and 165 tanks destroyed for 57 Bf 110s lost to enemy action.[2]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Messerschmitt_Bf_110#Armament
The Bf 110's main strength was its ability to accept unusually powerful air-to-air weaponry. Early versions had four 7.92 mm (.312 in) MG 17 machine guns in the upper nose and two 20 mm MG FF/M cannons fitted in the lower part of the nose. Later versions replaced the MG FF/M with the more powerful 20 mm MG 151/20 cannons and many G-series aircraft, especially those which served in the bomber-destroyer role, had two 30 mm (1.18 in) MK 108 cannons fitted instead of the MG 17. The defensive armament consisted of a single, flexibly mounted 7.92 mm (.312 in) MG 15 machine gun.
The Bf 110 G-2/R1 was also capable of accepting armament such as the Bordkanone series 37 mm (1.46 in) BK 3,7 autofed cannon, mounted in a conformal ventral gun pod under the fuselage. A single hit from this weapon was usually enough to destroy any Allied bomber.
Or tank or train as the Ju87G demonstrated from 1943 on.
The fighter-bomber versions could carry up to 2,000 kg (4,410 lb) of bombs, depending on the type.
