I read once that, had the Enola Gay crash landed, there was a chance that the atomic payload could detonate in the explosion. This is not true of Fat Man or subsequently developed nuclear warheads. Unfortunately I cannot track down where I read this information, but for the sake of ALT history, let's say that it is correct, and that it happened.
On August 6th, 1945, at 0230, the Enola Gay suffers a catastrophic malfunction and crashlands shortly after takeoff. The bomb detonates and destroys much of the island. The population of the island at the time was 40,000 American soldiers and support staff, and was home to a massive amount of bombers being used to hit the Japanese home islands. What butterflies do you think would have occurred immediately following the incident? Could/Would Nagasaki still be hit?
More importantly, would either the Japanese or the American public find out about it? It would be difficult if not impossible to hid a disaster of such magnitude, even with the wartime censor, though its remote nature would make it easier than if it occurred on the mainland. If the Japanese did find out, would it be seen as something akin the the Divine Wind that protected the islands from the Mongol invasions, inspiring them to continue the fight? In an effort to save face, would the US government blame the Japanese for the "attack?". The American public would blame them most likely, unaware that it was our own weapon that caused the destruction, and this could shift the public mood to call for a greater dismemberment of the Japanese government/state. If the American's let the public be deceived, there would likely be calls for revenge for this second, far bloodier Pearl Harbor.
If the end of the war is delayed, would the Russians enter Hokkaido? If the nature of the catastrophe did become known, would we see an America far more predisposed to an elimination of nuclear weapons?
Thoughts? I was going to make this a timeline, but don't think I will ever get around to it. Someone else is welcome to take a crack at it.
On August 6th, 1945, at 0230, the Enola Gay suffers a catastrophic malfunction and crashlands shortly after takeoff. The bomb detonates and destroys much of the island. The population of the island at the time was 40,000 American soldiers and support staff, and was home to a massive amount of bombers being used to hit the Japanese home islands. What butterflies do you think would have occurred immediately following the incident? Could/Would Nagasaki still be hit?
More importantly, would either the Japanese or the American public find out about it? It would be difficult if not impossible to hid a disaster of such magnitude, even with the wartime censor, though its remote nature would make it easier than if it occurred on the mainland. If the Japanese did find out, would it be seen as something akin the the Divine Wind that protected the islands from the Mongol invasions, inspiring them to continue the fight? In an effort to save face, would the US government blame the Japanese for the "attack?". The American public would blame them most likely, unaware that it was our own weapon that caused the destruction, and this could shift the public mood to call for a greater dismemberment of the Japanese government/state. If the American's let the public be deceived, there would likely be calls for revenge for this second, far bloodier Pearl Harbor.
If the end of the war is delayed, would the Russians enter Hokkaido? If the nature of the catastrophe did become known, would we see an America far more predisposed to an elimination of nuclear weapons?
Thoughts? I was going to make this a timeline, but don't think I will ever get around to it. Someone else is welcome to take a crack at it.
