Terence Zuber- delay of WWI past 1914 helps *Germany* more

[BooNZ]

They had the battleship Nikolai I, three armored cruisers, two protected cruisers, two unprotected and a host of smaller vessels. They could send even more.

...also, I assume the 3 armoured cruisers you are referring to are the 3 Rurik Class, which were actually completed in 1896, 1897 and 1901 i.e. after the intervention.

So again, what ships did Russia actually have available in the Far East?

 

[JLBB]

Oh how boring. His father was very unpopular and seen as a hen pecked husband of his English wife but then again that would be something you wouldn't know about

While this is true for the higher circles it's not true for the common people. Frederick was extremly popular there, even in Bavaria, and was very sensible to the media and was quite talented at using it to his advantage (Our Fritz myth). Willy learned a few tricks there, but never got to the mastery of his father.

Those who really knew Him however viewed him with disgust (his own father and son) or as weak and untalented (most of his friends, Bismarck). And of course, nearly all of them saw him as getting bossed around by his wife. They wouldn't even trust him with state secrets cause he would tell his wife and she would write her mother (Queen Victoria) and then London would know.

Most nobles in the German Empire also viewed him as an arrogant fool who was plotting to expand his own powers at their expanse.

 

[LordKalvert]

...also, I assume the 3 armoured cruisers you are referring to are the 3 Rurik Class, which were actually completed in 1896, 1897 and 1901 i.e. after the intervention.

So again, what ships did Russia actually have available in the Far East?

Um no that's not what I was referring to (and the Rurik is completed in time for the opening of the Kiel Canal which is at the same time)

BooNZ, your getting desperate here- first you tell me that the Germans are no threat to the Russians in the Baltic and then you claim that the Russians can't deal with the little Japanese fleet of 1895

 

[LordKalvert]

While this is true for the higher circles it's not true for the common people. Frederick was extremly popular there, even in Bavaria, and was very sensible to the media and was quite talented at using it to his advantage (Our Fritz myth). Willy learned a few tricks there, but never got to the mastery of his father.

Those who really knew Him however viewed him with disgust (his own father and son) or as weak and untalented (most of his friends, Bismarck). And of course, nearly all of them saw him as getting bossed around by his wife. They wouldn't even trust him with state secrets cause he would tell his wife and she would write her mother (Queen Victoria) and then London would know.

Most nobles in the German Empire also viewed him as an arrogant fool who was plotting to expand his own powers at their expanse.

Very true and even worse for Frederick is the lack of respect he enjoyed among the German princes none of whom cared for his wife's ideas. Doubt if the Reich would have survived long with him on the throne

 

[BooNZ]

Um no that's not what I was referring to (and the Rurik is completed in time for the opening of the Kiel Canal which is at the same time)

Ok, so again, what Russian ships were in the far East around the time of the triple intervention. I am aware of at least one Russian armoured cruiser from the 1880s, but not much else (not ordinarily an area of interest to me).

BooNZ, your getting desperate here- first you tell me that the Germans are no threat to the Russians in the Baltic and then you claim that the Russians can't deal with the little Japanese fleet of 1895

Yeah, real desperate . Last time I checked, the Baltic is a long way from the Far East.

The relative strengths of the Baltic fleets are academic - any conflict between Germany and Russia would be decided on land and due to geography even an "inferior" German fleet could pose a threat to Russian trade.

 

[JLBB]

Very true and even worse for Frederick is the lack of respect he enjoyed among the German princes none of whom cared for his wife's ideas. Doubt if the Reich would have survived long with him on the throne

Pretty sure it would survive. He's too weak willed and as he get's older too quickly depressed to really force his ideas. He might try once Bismarck is gone, but I'm sure he would have been checked (like Willy).

And his wife's influence shouldn't be overestimated either (neither should it be underestimated), she never got his love for uniforms, medals, the army, his short attention span etc out of him.
Willy definetly had more in common with his father than with his grandfather. There were core differences, but the claim that they are complete opposites just doesn't hold true.

Besides, his health wasn't that good either, already before the whole cancer thing. The nearly 91 years of his father are definetly out of reach, the 82 of Willy as well. Around 1900 the throne would likely pass to Willy, if Germany is lucky Tirpitz will not get control of the navy and that can only be a good thing.

 

[LordKalvert]

I wonder what about the situation made the Russians feel the British proposal was "premature"? (Did Russia reject it because they thought that the British had poor judgement given their anti-Ottoman policy that year?)What if Russia figured it might as well accept because sooner or later it would have to oppose Japan? Who else did the British approach besides the Russians? And where have you read about these detailed abortive maneuvers?

It would be interesting to see how this played out.

It also brings up another what-if. What if Britain joined the intervention after Russia came out in favor and it became Russia's 2nd partner after Germany, or 3rd partner after Germany and France? (Did Britain reject the Russian-led intervention simply out of aversion to going along with another power's initiatives, or out of irritation at Russia's earlier refusal?)

In either case Britain and Russia could have ended up on the same side in this case. Russia might have said yes to Britain's initial intervention proposal out of a belief that this anti-Japanese move, unlike the Armenian thing, actually was in Russia's interests.

Or, when Russia came to favor intervention, Britain might have said yes, hoping to both get a share of additional influence/spoils while also getting a habit of cooperation started with Russia to hopefully increase practical cooperation in the Near East as well.

The British proposal is rejected by the powers because:

First, the British only proposed "advice" and didn't intend to back it with force

Second, that it would be best to wait till the actual terms were laid down

Traditionally, the powers intervened at the end of wars Made both powers weaker and easier to deal with

The English refusal has to do with domestic politics. Harcourt leads the opposition in the cabinet. The English see their interests as no longer threatened.

England is also playing a double game of trying to be on good terms with both China and Japan. She fears a Russo-Chinese alliance as well as a possible Russo-Japanese one where the two split the spoils

The Russians and the French tried very hard to get English participation and would have welcomed it with pleasure- the exact phrase Lobanov used


The Sino-Japanese War of 1894-1895: Perceptions, Power, and Primacy
By S. C. M. Paine

Russian Imperialism and Naval Power: Military Strategy and the Build-Up to ...

german diplomatic documents 1871-1914

Should be enough good reading

 

[LordKalvert]

Pretty sure it would survive. He's too weak willed and as he get's older too quickly depressed to really force his ideas. He might try once Bismarck is gone, but I'm sure he would have been checked (like Willy).

And his wife's influence shouldn't be overestimated either (neither should it be underestimated), she never got his love for uniforms, medals, the army, his short attention span etc out of him.
Willy definetly had more in common with his father than with his grandfather. There were core differences, but the claim that they are complete opposites just doesn't hold true.

Besides, his health wasn't that good either, already before the whole cancer thing. The nearly 91 years of his father are definetly out of reach, the 82 of Willy as well. Around 1900 the throne would likely pass to Willy, if Germany is lucky Tirpitz will not get control of the navy and that can only be a good thing.

Well his death was imminent when he gets the throne so he doesn't take any initiatives

Wouldn't be too sure about the survival of the Reich- many of his ideas are anathema to the Princes

As for the German Navy- German commerce, colonies and desire to be active in World Affairs are going to drive it no matter what

 

[JLBB]

Well his death was imminent when he gets the throne so he doesn't take any initiatives

Wouldn't be too sure about the survival of the Reich- many of his ideas are anathema to the Princes

As for the German Navy- German commerce, colonies and desire to be active in World Affairs are going to drive it no matter what

Never meant to say that there wouldn't be a navy, just a different one than OTL. That they would build a fleet was clear, that already started before Tirpitz.

 

[raharris1973]

Most nobles in the German Empire also viewed him as an arrogant fool who was plotting to expand his own powers at their expanse.

Very true and even worse for Frederick is the lack of respect he enjoyed among the German princes none of whom cared for his wife's ideas. Doubt if the Reich would have survived long with him on the throne

Well his death was imminent when he gets the throne so he doesn't take any initiatives

Wouldn't be too sure about the survival of the Reich- many of his ideas are anathema to the Princes

What do they propose to replace the Reich with ?

"End of the Reich" seems to be a quite extreme reaction to unpopularity of the reigning Kaiser. Ending the Reich means either ending the monarchical system, or secession of states, themselves monarchical, from the Prussian-led imperial institutions.

Republicanism does not seem to be a solution that German conservatives would approve of, and German radical liberals and socialists who would find republicanism least objectionable in principle, would have fewer problems with Frederick than conservatives.

Since you implied the princes are in the lead of the opposition, so this would logically imply secessions of constituent territories from Prussian control.

If so, which states would be likely to lead the secession, how many would secede, how would post-secession governments fare, and what stops Frederick and other Prussians from suppressing secession? (Who knows, maybe Frederick personally would prefer accepting secessions as a fait accompli to the alternative of suppressing them by force?)

It seems to me that a military/bureaucratic/parliamentary conservative coup to replace the Kaiser with his son, or a prolonged stalemate while anti-Frederick forces footdrag and wait him out, is far likelier than the end of the Reich itself.

 

[CalBear]

They had the battleship Nikolai I, three armored cruisers, two protected cruisers, two unprotected and a host of smaller vessels. They could send even more.

They had Vladivostok and access to every Chinese port and the Chinese Army to back them up (as well as their own Pacific Garrisons). The Chinese still retained a large force as well in the South.




How utterly stupid can you be? The Open Door policy is not the policy of Grover Cleveland and backing Japanese aggression against the traditional American ally of Russia is not an American policy at the time.

Spanish American relations aren't bad yet as the Cuban revolt hadn't even begun in earnest

Spain was anxious to remove the Japanese from Taiwan and would have gladly joined in for a share of the loot.




Laughing my ass off at the stupidity displayed here. First, Russia isn't "carving up China" Japan is. The issue before the British cabinet was whether they should join the intervention not oppose it




I've discussed the Armenian massacres with you over and over again and your refusal to grasp it is tiresome. The issue is the driving force behind British foreign policy from 1894-96. The Armenians revolt and the Turks put it down in their usual fashion. This causes a wave of indignation in Britain such that they are trying to either force concessions from the Turks or depose the Sultan (which is Salisbury's suggestion to the Tsar at Balmoral)

Go read Salisbury's memo to the cabinet about his meeting with Nicholas (you can get it free at JSTOR)

The Italians are the only ones backing the English as they are looking for easy loot. Everyone else lead by Russia is defending the Sultan

I just find very little is ever written about "the Armenian Affair" - in contrast there is volumes about the Jameson Raid in the same year, which in itself was a relatively minor matter, similarly the Dreyfus Affair and the opening of the Kiel Canal... [/Quote]

Maybe but the people writing about are pretty important (the Kaiser, Salisbury, Roseberry, Hanotaux, Chamberlain, Goschen and a lot of their friends)

[/QUOTE][/QUOTE]We attack ideas and positions here, not the person who posted them.

I recommend you keep that in mind.