In order to have Stonewall Jackson at Gettysburg, we have to practically assume that there is no accidental shooting of Jackson, and also assume that there are other significant butterflies between May and July 1863.
A fair assumption. Lee's initial goals in invading Maryland and Pennsylvania were two-fold:
Re-victual his army for the coming year (hugely successful, the AoNV ate vastly better in the Winter of 1863-64 than they would the following winter.
Act as a diversion, hopefully draw off Grant's forces from Vicksburg. Total fail.
Destroying Hooker's army would be a huge bonus, but it wasn't his first objective. He couldn't "plan" on the enemy giving him the opportunity.
The question i am asking is whether or not Stonewall Jackson, on the third day/July 3, could pull off a successful charge like Pickett couldn't?
It wasn't Pickett's Charge, it was Longstreet's. Though to be fair, it was really Lee's.
OTOH, contrary to myth, had Lee followed Longstreet's (begging) advice to flank the Round Tops, the ACW would have been over by Christmas. Despiter all the grief Lee gets for ordering the charge, at least his idea was better than Longstreet's .
Oh, and if all things are the same save for Jackson's survival? Then he is actually well to the north on the Culp's Hill/Gettysburg/Cemetery Hill flank. Because of positioning, its likely one of the two OTL divisions of Heth and Pender remain under Longstreet's command for this battle. Anderson was supposed to send in at least part of his own division, but they were so shattered from Day 2 that they weren't up to it.
In truth? Jackson being there on Day 1 means XI and I Corps probably get totally routed from Gettysburg, creating a moderate operational victory for the AoNV.
Unfortunately for Lee, this means he will be advancing on the dug in Federals on the Pipe Creek Line, which is where Meade wanted to fight in the first place. Worse for the Southrons than Gettysburg. Unflankable, with a live rail line running right behind the Federals and out of sight of the Southern army.
Also, Stuart's troopers will be arriving one day later, with even more cases of the men falling off their horses and the horses dropping dead. So too another day's hard marching for Lee's army, while Meade's army will be fresher, falling back on their own lines, and being able to bring more forces of VIII Corps into the battle, and the Maryland, Pennsylvania, (and better, New York) State Militias threatening Lee's LOC.
A Battle of the Pipe Creek Line would almost be as bad as following Longstreet's suggestions. Though at least Lee could call off the slaughter when he'd had enough. OR it could be "Pickett's Charge" for the entire AoNV
Could Jackson ensure victory, or would he perhaps go down like Armistead in the charge?
Armistead led a brigade, not a expanded corps. Jackson was IIRC the XO of the AoNV. He's not making a charge like that himself. Trimble was gravely wounded, true. But he was a newly promoted divisional commander.
Jackson would have probably have agreed with Longstreet that the Confederates should not fight at Gettysburg. The two of them would probably have been able to convince Lee to withdraw to more favorable positions for the Army of Northern Virginia.
Agreed. But what Lee does after he learns that Meade is refusing to take the bait is anybody's guess. Lee knows that Meade has ultimately the forces of the various state militias, plus eventually IV (technically de-activated but still there), VII, VIII, and IX Corps
that could arrive IF Lee just hangs around long enough for them to arrive. At best, Lee has two extra brigades, and they are all the way down in Richmond. And his artillery ammunition train is still coming up from Staunton.
If Jackson had survived Chancellorsville, does Lee reorganize the army?
If it ain't broke, don't fix it
Remember in OTL he restructured the Army of Northern Virginia from 2 corps into 3, and 2 of those commanders (A.P. Hill and Richard Ewell) had never commanded at the corps level prior to Gettysburg.
Jackson would be vastly affronted. While Longstreet would just grumble.
Jackson would honestly probably not fare too much better. Little Round Top might go differently though.
It was both a close run affair and doomed at the same time. Just repeat after me:
VI Corps, VI Corps, VI Corps...
Probably a meeting engagement for Sedgwick's boys, suffering at first before swarming over Hood's bled out and exhausted troops. The incline up Little Round Top isn't nearly as bad on the Union side approach as on the Confederate side. Though to be fair, its hard to imagine an incline that could be worse, short of a sheer face covered in axle grease
Pickett is unfairly maligned for the charge. It was possibly Lee's worst idea-- probably no army in the world could have pulled that off. Jackson wouldn't have done much better. Pickett was a mediocre general but he should not be blamed for the disaster at Gettysburg. Look at 5 forks for a more fair judge of his career.
Nobody in the South wanted to blame Lee and it was too well known that Longstreet opposed the move. Not that that didn't stop Jubal Early from trying to scapegoat Longstreet.
His orders to launch the charge on Day Three was his worst idea, but it wasn't his greatest failure as a commander.
His greatest command failure was wasting four full days refusing to believe Beauregard's desperate pleadings (screaming, really
)
for help when Beauregard insisted that that Grant had crossed the James River and was closing on Petersburg!
Beauregard was right, and
Lee was wrong.
*face-palm, y'all*
The attack COULD have worked. All it required was for the Yankees to run away at the sight of all those Southern troops charging up at them, doing their fearsome yell [which they didn't do, as it was too exhausting to do on an incline covering 1.2 miles (1)].
Damned unsportsmanlike of the Yankees not to run.
1) The distance widening the further south you go along the lines of attack. Trimble's and Pettigrew's men had the shortest distance to travel, but also faced the worst most accurate first from the first moments of their approach. By the time Pickett even reached the Emmitsburg Road, the Confederates on the far left flank of the assault were already in full retreat.
These troops had been badly bloodied on Day 1, Lee had not been appraised of this, and they were very poorly led. One of these officers, Brokenborough, would be dismissed from the army by December for incompetence. Another, Davis, was Jefferson Davis' nephew. He made as good a military leader as his uncle.
But getting back to Pickett? Yeah, he earned his last place finish in his West Point graduating class. And to think of all the lies told postwar that Grant had also been a bottom rung graduate. No scholar, but no class dunce either.
