Stars and Sickles - An Alternative Cold War

Chapter 1: Introduction
  • Stars and Sickles Banner Resized.jpg

    The origins of the global competition between the Soviet Union and the United States lay in the endgame of the Second World War. The Soviet advances into Eastern Europe in 1944, combined with the Western Allied landings in France, was the final death knell of the Third Reich. After vanquishing Hitler, the Soviets and Americans set up friendly governments in their sectors of liberated Europe. Socialist governments were put into power in Hungary, Romania, Czechoslovakia, Poland, Bulgaria, Finland[1], Yugoslavia, Greece and Albania*. In Western Europe, free elections were held in France, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Denmark and Norway. Germany was divided into four sectors: A Soviet sector, a British sector, a French sector and an American sector. Berlin was divided similarly, with the Eastern half occupied by the Soviet Union, and the Western half divided between Britain, France and the US. This division of Europe became known as the 'Iron Curtain'. This division would remain until the end of the Cold War.

    The face of the post-war world was decided by the Big Three at the Potsdam Conference. The United Kingdom was represented by Prime Minister Winston Churchill and (after a successful campaign for PM, defeating Churchill) Clement Attlee, whilst the United States was represented by President Henry A. Wallace[2] and the Soviet Union by General Secretary of the Central Committee Joseph Stalin. The British stance was significantly less uncompromising after the replacement of Churchill, with Attlee's priority being British recovery from the deprivations and damages of the Second World War.
    Wallace was also fairly easy-going with the Soviets, continuing Roosevelt's focus on a peaceful post-war world, and heavily influenced by his trip to Magadan as Vice President in 1944. The main achievements of the Potsdam Conference was the agreement on the need to establish the United Nations Organisation (UNO); the shifting of the Polish border to the West and recognition of the Soviet annexations in Eastern Poland; the decision that all Allied troops would be withdrawn from Iran; the division of French Indochina at the 17th parallel (for the purposes of Anglo-Chinese occupation) and the Potsdam Declaration that defined the terms for Japanese surrender to the Allies.

    [1] ITTL, the Finns were defeated militarily by the Soviets, and a puppet government was put in place in Finland (this will be explained in more depth in an upcoming update).

    [2] ITTL, Truman does not usurp Wallace as Vice President at the Democratic National Convention in 1944. Roosevelt is present and speaks in favour of Wallace, despite his ailing health. This endorsement, and the effect of voter loyalty to Roosevelt resulted in Wallace's victory. It was actually quite a close-run thing in OTL, so this isn't implausible.
     
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    Chapter 2: The Lion and the Bear: Finland (1940s)
  • Opening Moves: Finland

    In the aftermath of WWII, Communist governments were established in the states of Eastern Europe liberated by the Red Army. Additionally, independent (but Soviet-aligned) Communist governments rose in Albania and Yugoslavia. For the most part, the transition to Communism in these states didn't generate significant friction with neighbouring states. In Poland, the borders were moved further West, to compensate for Soviet annexations in the East, and the adjustments led to the forced expulsion of the majority of the German population to the Soviet occupation zone (Sovozone) in Eastern Germany. This was at first problematic, but the main areas of friction in Eastern Europe were Finland and Greece.

    To understand the seizure of power by Finnish Communists and the crisis with Sweden, we have to look back at the last months of WWII. In June of 1944, the Red Army mounted a strategic offensive against Finnish forces by the Leningrad and Karelian fronts. The Soviet offensive smashed the Finnish lines at the Battle of Tali-Ihantala [3] and advanced rapidly towards the Salpa Line. The heavily fortified Salpa line proved to be a major obstacle, but after heavy bombardment and heavy casualties, Soviet forces breached the Salpa Line on July 19th. After the penetration of the Salpa Line, Finnish forces all along the frontline retreated hurriedly back towards Helsinki. Many of these units were cut off and captured by Soviet forces. Helsinki was captured on the 28th, after heavy fighting, although not as severe as in the Battles of Budapest or Berlin. The Finnish government surrendered unconditionally to Soviet forces. Although some pockets of Finnish resistance remained, they posed no real threat to the Soviet forces. Upon the surrender, there was an uprising in Vaasa by Swedish-speaking residents, which was quickly put down by arriving Soviet occupation troops.

    After the surrender of Germany, the Soviets went about setting up a Communist government. In the 1946 Finnish elections, the Finnish People's Democratic League (SKDL) won 65% of the vote. Many historians believe that this number was rigged, with the real level of support approximately 17-25%. The SKDL was a pan-leftist umbrella organisation, but was dominated by the Communist Party of Finland (SKP). The tactics used in the Communist takeover of Finland was similar to those used in other countries, but differed in one major way: there were far less purges of Communists in Finland. Whilst right-wing politicians were purged, Otto Wille Kuusinen's government was fairly liberal with the left. Kuusinen was fairly unpopular, even among the Finnish working-class, despite his liberal Communist attitudes. This was largely due to his image as a collaborator with the Soviets in the Winter War. Nevertheless, Kuusinen became General Secretary of the SKP, whilst prominent Communist Aimo Aaltonen became President of the Presidium of the National Assembly. Whilst Aaltonen was therefore Head of State, Kuusinen wielded the real power in Finland. On October 17th 1946, Aaltonen declared the Finnish People's Republic (FPR).

    The new socialist government went about implementing a number of reforms. In order to stimulate the economy, the state revived large scale mining and timber operations, as well as redistributing wealth from wealthy Swedish-speakers. Many of these same Swedish speakers were imprisoned in gulags in Karelia. Despite these efforts, the Finnish government still suffered from a lack of goodwill amongst the Finnish population. Many Finns considered the government to be Soviet puppets. Kuusinen and Aaltonen realised that they needed to appease the spirit of nationalism within Finland. To this end, Kuusinen visited Moscow during the February of 1947. Kuusinen met with various Soviet leaders, including Molotov, Beria and Stalin himself, attempting to convince them to cede back the territory taken from Finland in the Winter War. Though at first received with suspicion, especially by Beria, Kuusinen managed to convince Molotov of the benefits of ceding back Karelia. By ceding Karelia, Kuusinen conjectured, Finland would be more reliably Communist and therefore pro-Soviet, and with the elimination of Nazi Germany and a potentially hostile White regime in Finland, there was less urgency for a buffer area to the North of Leningrad. Additionally, Finland provides more strategic depth for the USSR, and guards the Gulf of Finland, and therefore Leningrad. After much deliberation, Molotov managed to convince Stalin of the wisdom of Kuusinen's ideas, and Stalin allowed for the cessation of most of those territories, with conditions: the Soviets were allowed to use naval and airbases along the Finnish coast, as well as having a right to garrison troops in Finland. Furthermore, Stalin ceded only Karelia, retaining Petsamo.

    The transfer to Finnish control occurred on April 1st. A joint Finnish-Soviet parade marched to Viipuri, singing songs and waving banners to fraternal socialist solidarity. The Finnish people were ecstatic about the return of Viipuri to Finland. The conquest of Viipuri by Soviet soldiers was traumatic for the Finns, as Viipuri had always been inviolate, never before subjected to the jackboots of a foreign army. But there was still one more thorn in the Kuusinen government's side: the Aland Islands. During the chaos of the Soviet offensive on 1944, Sweden had occupied the Aland Islands. Despite the archipelago being over 95% Swedish-speaking, the League of Nations had recognised Finland's claim to the Islands. Since the end of the war, the Swedes had continued their unlawful occupation, but were supported unanimously by the Alanders. On May 16th 1947, Finnish marines, hiding in a cargo ship, revealed themselves and attacked the Swedish positions on the Aland Islands. The archipelago wasn't heavily-guarded, and the Finnish soldiers quickly captured the Swedish garrison in the capital of Maarianhamina. This was followed up by securing the other islands in the archipelago. In response, the Swedes moved a cruiser group, centered around the HSwMS Gotland (an anti-aircraft cruiser) to the vicinity of the islands. As the Gotland anchored near the islands to await orders, Finnish IL-2 Sturmoviks (probably piloted by Soviet airmen) attack the ships. The Gotland was struck with several bombs, and although not sunk, the ship was heavily damaged. Escorted by the other ships of the group, the Gotland limped to Stockholm, where it awaited repairs. In the meantime, the cruiser HSwMS Göta Lejon moved towards the islands, but didn't anchor, and kept further from shore than the Gotland.

    In the UNO, the Aland Islands issue was a point of debate in both the Security Council and the General Assembly. Although the British in particular condemned the Finnish seizure of the islands, Soviet representative Andrei Gromyko noted that the League of Nations had accepted Finnish sovereignty of the islands, and that the Swedish seizure was illegal and aggressive. The Americans were also influenced by instructions from their administration, that urged acceptance of a Finnish re-occupation of the Aland Islands, considering it too small an issue to ruin relations with the Soviets over. The UNSC adopted a resolution that recognised Finnish sovereignty over the islands, but stressed the need for cultural rights for the local Swedish-speakers, and dictated that the archipelago would be demilitarised. This last condition was demanded by the Swedes, who under British and American pressure would only back down if there was a guarantee that the Aland Islands wouldn't harbour potentially hostile military personnel.

    Kuusinen experienced an upsurge in popularity in Finland, whilst the Swedish government was pushed more towards the West. This would manifest itself in Sweden becoming one of the founding members of NATO, and the shift in Swedish politics towards the right.
     
    Chapter 3: Tehran and Tabriz - Iran (1940s)
  • Opening Moves: Iran

    The Iranian crisis of 1946 was the first major point of friction between the United States and the Soviet Union in the Cold War. It had it's origins in the wartime division of Iran between Allied (primarily British) forces in the South and Soviet forces in the North. The occupation was for the purpose of securing the route of 'lend-lease' aid to the Soviet Union, to prevent any defection by the Iranian government to the Nazi cause and to secure control over the Iranian oil-fields. At the Potsdam Conference, the Allied powers had agreed to withdraw from Iran, but after the withdrawal of Western troops, the Soviets refused to withdraw their forces from the North, and even made some efforts to expand their control South. In the North-West, the Soviets established two puppet governments: The Azerbaijan People's Government (APG) and the Republic of Kurdistan (ROKu, not to be confused with the ROK, or the short-lived state of South Korea), also known as the Mahabad Republic.

    Alarmed at the threat of Soviet expansion southward, the United States and United Kingdom applied significant diplomatic pressure on the Soviets, and several UNSC resolutions were passed which attempted to push the Soviets into withdrawing. American ambassador to the USSR, Charles E. Bohlen[3], in a telegram sent on the 30th of January 1946, informed the Soviets that "whilst the American government firmly believes that co-operation between the United States and the Soviet Union is key to the prosperity and stability of the postwar world, the United States cannot be comfortable with the occupation of Iran and the Iranian oilfields by any Great Power, and the US government requests strongly that the Soviet Union withdraw military forces from Iran in the interests of co-operation, understanding, friendship and peace between our two nations."

    After sustained US diplomatic pressure, the Soviets withdrew out of Iran, but continued to support the APG and ROKu. The APG's small regular forces, equipped with Soviet weaponry, had several successes against the Iranian forces loyal to Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi. The APG and ROKu's forces were both comprised of militias, armed with both Soviet weapons and equipment confiscated from Iranian troops, who were disarmed and arrested. Despite the good performance of the separatist forces initially, they were unable to perpetually repel the forces of the Iranian central government, who continued to send more heavily-armed troops to combat the separatists. In response to Kurdish and Azerbaijani pleas for help, the Soviets sent troops into the area at the onset of June 1946[4]. Panic ensued amongst the American and British foreign policy establishment. Some hardliners believed in a show of force to eject the Soviets, some suggested strengthening the Iranian government forces with aid, military equipment, and advisors. But in the end, President Wallace adopted the most conciliatory stance. He brokered a deal with Stalin, recognising the APG and ROKu and conceding to a 30% Soviet share in Iranian oil in exchange for a guarantee that the Soviet Union would halt any aggression towards Iran[5]. The British and the more hard-line in American political circles were enraged. The British felt that the presence of the Soviets in Northern Iran still threatened the Persian Gulf in the event of hostilities with the Soviet Union, and were concerned that the ROKu's pan-Kurdish rhetoric and policy threatened to undermine the stability of their mandate in Iraq, which in the North was largely Kurdish. Hardline Americans shared these concerns, but were especially upset that Stalin had been given a lot, whilst having given very little at all. Later Wallace would write in his memoirs that "it was either give the Soviets a little piece of the pie, or the whole thing. I chose to share. In hindsight, I shouldn't have. But back then, I really thought that Stalin was willing to compromise. I thought he could be appeased. I made a mistake." In Moscow it was a huge propaganda coup. In the Azerbaijani SSR, a huge parade was held in Baku, with the themes of "brotherhood" and "solidarity".

    An unforeseen and (from a Western perspective) undesirable consequence of the secession of the APG from Iran was on the status of the Turkish Straits. With both the secession of the APG and the Communist victory in Greece[6], the Turkish government acquiesced to Soviet pressure for military bases on and free access through the Straits. This allowed Soviet naval presence in the Eastern Mediterranean, and would prove to be an area of extreme significance in the Cold War. The seeming pandering to the Soviet Union, which was later explained by Turkish historians and foreign policy experts as "the art of bordering a superpower without being dominated by it" has become know as "Turkicisation". Whilst that term is still in pejorative use as submission to a larger power, as a foreign policy direction it is now more commonly referred to as the "Saka Doctrine", after Turkish Foreign Minister Hasan Saka. Modern historians consider a stronger Soviet presence on Turkey's East, as well as the potential danger of Soviet support of Kurdish separatists, as one of the reasons for the Turkish willingness to accept such demands. There is a ongoing debate about whether that reasoning dominated contemporary Turkish politics, or whether the Communisation of Greece was the key factor.

    [3] ITTL, Bohlen dominates American diplomatic interaction with the USSR, rather than Kennan. This means no Kennan Telegram, and whilst there are still a lot of voices pushing for containment, Bohlen believed that some concessions should be made to the Soviets (such as a sphere in Eastern Europe).

    [4] In OTL, the Soviets continually had military presence in Iran until pulling out in June 1946. But ITTL, the Soviets withdrew earlier, but then sent troops back in to bolster the separatists. This gives the West a stronger "back off" message, which prompts the Americans to come to the table.

    [5] In OTL, the Soviets were really concerned with getting a large percentage of Iranian oil, and wanted to push through an agreement with Iran to have 51% ownership of Iran's oil. After the Americans pledged support for Iran, the Iranians refused it and the Soviets got pretty much nothing out of Iran. So, ITTL, the Iran Crisis was much more even in terms of benefit.

    [6] Yes, this is massive. And the butterflies are equally massive, but don't worry, it'll be explained in the next update!
     
    Chapter 4: Socialism amongst the Olive Groves - Greece (1940s)
  • Opening Moves: The Greek Civil War

    The Greek Civil War, like all other events of the late 1940s, was caused by events earlier in the decade, particularly during WWII. In Greece, three rival factions which had earlier resisted the Nazis were at each others' throats: the National Liberation Front (EAM), a Communist movement; the National Republican Greek League (EDES) and the monarchist group National and Social Liberation (EKKA). These three factions struggled against both the German occupation and against each other. After the eventual liberation of the Greek nation from German occupation, it was time to form a new government. In areas under their control, the EAM had already set up the Political Committee of National Liberation (PEEA), a provisional government. In April 1944, the elections for this committee took place, both in EAM-occupied regions and (secretly) in the still-occupied cities. For the first time in Greek history, women were allowed to vote. The PEEA was dominated by Communists, with a Socialist President of the Cabinet, Alexandros Svolos. Later that year, in a conference in Lebanon, the Greek resistance movements formed a government of national unity.

    greece19443.jpg


    On December 1st, the government of "national unity", controlled by right-wing Prime Minister Giorgios Papandreou and British commander of Allied forces in the country General Ronald Scobie declared that all guerrilla groups should disarm by December 10th. The leadership and membership of the EAM could see this was clearly an attempt to weaken their movement, and supported by Yugoslav strongman Josip Broz Tito, they defied the government. The EAM ministers of the government resigned en masse, and proclaimed the reorganisation of ELAS, the EAM's wartime military wing. A demonstration was organised by EAM on December 3rd. 200,000 people marched down Panepistimiou St towards the Syntagma Square. British tanks and police units were scattered around the area, trying to block the demonstrators. Upon reaching the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier, the demonstrators were fired upon by Greek police. More than 30 demonstrators were killed, and another 150 or so injured. This triggered the Dekemvriana, a period of street-fighting between EAM/ELAS fighters and the Greek police, supported by British troops.

    Papandreou attempted to resign on the 4th, but Scobie refused it, and by the 12th, EAM fighters were in control of most of the cities of Athens and Piraeus. Outnumbered and desperate, the British flew in British troops stationed in Italy to bolster their forces. Faced with trained British troops, and given that the British didn't hesitate to use artillery and air-power against the EAM fighters, slowly regained control of Athens. In response, and with encouragement from Tito, ELAS began aggressive activities against Greek police and British troops throughout Greece.[7] The anti-communist forces quickly lost control of the countryside, occasionally sending ineffectual air forays to strafe EAM troops. In response to the EAM insurgency, the British brought in more troops, in moves which became increadingly unpopular back home. Fairly low-level fighting continued until a British offensive which seized the plains North-West of Athens in September of 1945. In response, ELAS increased recruitment and with arms provided by Yugoslavia, escalated their attacks on British forces. Although ELAS lost more men than the British, the British position was untenable in the long-term. They were outnumbered by ELAS guerrillas, Britain was in a bad way economically, the Labour government was trying to cut unnecessary spending overseas, and other commitments, such as in Palestine and supplying the Iranian government were stretching scarce British resources.

    The British appealed to the Americans for funds to fight EAM, but were refused. The Wallace administration saw support for a government that was so opposed by it's people as relatively futile, and was already injecting a significant amount of money into Western Europe under the Marshall Plan[8]. From April 1946, British troops began to withdraw from Greece, and the EAM occupied Athens. The EAM declared Greece the "Popular Republic of Greece"(PRG) headed by Nikos Zachariadis (Aris Velouchiotis became Defense Minister), citing the struggles against the Germans as the British as a great moment in the national history of Greece, and pledging to rebuild the country for both the Hellenes and Slavo-Macedonian peoples (ELAS contained a high proportion of Slavo-Macedonians due to their lenient policy with ethnic minorities). In the months following, the new government signed a friendship treaty with the Soviet Union and started the "Red Terror", a campaign against former collaborators, Metaxas and Papandreou supporters. Papandreou himself had been evacuated to Egypt, and would later spend the rest of his life in London, where he died a heartbroken old man in the late 60s.

    Historians believe that the Turkish decision to allow Soviet military bases after sustained diplomatic pressure was a desire not to antagonise the Soviets, given the triple threat of an attack from Greece into Rumelia, a confrontation with the Soviet Black Sea Fleet (far superior to the Turkish Navy) and the possibility of Soviet backing for a Kurdish separatist movement in Eastern Anatolia (with the ambition of cessation and uniting with the Mahabad Republic.

    [7] In OTL, after their defeat in Athens, the EAM signed the Treaty of Varkiza, which abolished ELAS and greatly weakened them in the upcoming fighting. ITTL they do not, and in fact initiate the Greek Civil War earlier than OTL.

    [8] Despite the butterflies generated by this TL, I still feel that it is VERY likely that the Wallace government would've gone through with the Marshall Plan or a very similar initiative, and wouldn't have shied away from it as a soft power method of strengthening the US position in Europe.
     
    Chapter 5a: The Calm Before the Storm - The Far East (1940s)
  • Opening Moves: The Far East Pt.1

    As the Japanese signed the document of surrender aboard the USS Missouri, preparations for war were already being made in China. Whilst Japanese armies on the mainland surrendered to Soviet and Chinese Nationalist forces, the rival Chinese factions prepared for a final chapter to their long civil war. The Kuomintang (KMT), led by Generalissimo Chiang Kai-Shek, were considered by most the legitimate government of China, and had access to larger stocks of weaponry, particularly artillery and armour. By contrast, Mao Zedong's Chinese Communist Party (CCP) forces were experienced in guerrilla warfare and commanded the loyalty of the vast majority of Chinese, who were agrarian peasantry. These peasants were attracted to the Maoist forces by the prospects of land reform, which appealed immensely to the starving and poverty-stricken farmers, who were promised land off of their semi-feudal landlords. These landlords were largely supported by the pervasively corrupt Kuomintang.

    The first post-war peace conference between the KMT and CCP was held in Chongqing between August 28, 1945 and October 10, 1945. Although both sides rhetorically supported the idea of peaceful reconstruction, battles continued throughout the peace process. In the meantime, in order to gain a better negotiating position, both parties jockeyed for an advantageous position. The Soviets, having occupied Manchuria after Operation August Storm, allowed the CCP to take full control of North-East China. Chiang Kai-Shek agreed with the Soviets to delay the Soviet withdrawal until Chiang had redeployed his best forces to Manchuria, but under orders from Stalin, Marshal Rodion Malinovsky prevented the KMT from moving troops into the area, and armed Mao's guerrillas with captured Japanese weaponry. In response, American planes transported KMT troops into strategic cities of North China such as Peking and Tientsin. Airlifts were required due to CCP control of the surrounding countryside. In the winter of 1945, the KMT began an offensive intended to prevent the CCP from solidifying their position in Northern China. Kuomintang forces were supported by Close Air-Support (CAS) squadrons of the USAAF, which allowed Kuomintang forces to capture Chinchow [9] and advance halfway to Mukden, before a CCP offensive on the Shantung Peninsula drove out KMT forces (although US Marines in Tsingtao managed to rebuff Maoist attacks). The attack on US forces had a powerful effect on the opinions of the US foreign policy elite. Whilst Wallace vetoed any direct action by US ground forces, he authorised the positioning of more USAAF forces in China, under the command of General George C. Marshall.[10]

    In March of 1946, Malinovsky's Soviet troops finally began to withdraw from Manchuria, but purposely delayed their withdrawal to allow CCP militias to take control of areas formerly under Soviet occupation. The Soviets played a double game: on the negotiating table, they made deals with the Nationalists for economic and industrial development (Stalin's plan in case of a KMT victory), whilst on the other hand supporting Mao's revolutionaries in their attempt to bring socialism to the world's most populous nation. The CCP's consolidation of power in the North-East coincided with an increasingly strict style of rule by the Nationalists: business interests aligned with the KMT seized most financial institutions, businesses and factories. They also hoarded supplies and used coercive recruitment techniques. This would prove counter-productive, generating resentment against the KMT, even in urban areas where the Communists were less popular. Severe deprivations ensued from such severe policies, and the unemployment rate in Shanghai almost hit 40% in 1946. Increasing levels of civil unrest were becoming problematic for Chiang, and sabotage was becoming increasingly common. To assist Chiang, vast numbers of combat-ready US forces began to trickle into Chinese ports...[11]

    Meanwhile in Korea, the former Japanese colony was divided between the Soviet occupation zone in the North and the US occupation zone in the South. The superpowers soon set up client states on the peninsula: Kim Il-Sung's "Democratic People's Republic of Korea" (DPRK) in the North, and Syngman Rhee's "Republic of Korea" (ROK) in the South. Although in the 1943 Cairo Agreement, the Allies had decided on an independent, unified Korea, the superpowers proved incapable of compromise, and the division of Korea was decided as a temporary measure. This division would become permanent, however, with the withdrawal of Soviet troops from the North in May 1946 (coinciding with the withdrawal from Manchuria)[12] and the American withdrawal in 1947 (due to increasing pressure in China)[13]. In the South, Rhee established what was increasingly looking like a police state, with major crackdowns on demonstrators, who protested against the cronyism that was becoming apparent in ROK. In the North, Kim instituted land reforms by nationalising private property as well as Japanese and collaborationist-owned commercial and industrial operations.

    Rhee aligned himself with America, being a fervent anti-Communist, and conscious of the need for American military aid in his eventual goal of "unification by moving North". He attempted to curtail domestic opposition by enacting laws that expanded the powers of his security forces, led by his right-hand man Kim Chang-Ryong. As he affirmed his anti-Communist position, military aid flowed in from the United States and Japan. The leadership of the DPRK, threatened by Rhee's aggressive posturing and superior military, requested economic and military aid (including advisors) from the Soviet Union. The Soviets were happy to oblige. The tit-for-tat competition between the two Koreas would eventually explode into a war whose consequences are only just really being explored, as it was considered by most traditional historians as merely a sideshow of the Chinese Expedition, a humbling and traumatic experience for America's ego.

    [9] OTL, Chinchow was as far as the KMT advanced, but they've done better ITTL, with American help.

    [10] Marshall was in China in the period 1945-47, but he was not leading a military mission. Instead, he was trying to broker a coalition government of both Nationalists and Communists.

    [11] There were already American troops in Chinese port cities, but this is gonna step it up a notch.

    [12]ITTL, the Soviets withdraw much earlier, redeploying troops to Europe, partially in response to increasingly chilly relations with the Yugoslav government.

    [13]ITTL, the Americans also withdraw from Korea ahead of schedule. This is due to the need to deploy troops in a more crucial theatre...

    TO BE CONTINUED...
     
    Chapter 5b: War Engulfs Asia - The Far East (1940s)
  • Opening Moves: The Far East Pt.2

    In the July of 1946, Kuomintang forces mounted a strategic offensive on Communist territory with over 1.6 million troops. In the face of this massive assault, Mao's Communist forces instituted a strategy of "passive defence", falling back whilst harassing KMT forces, gradually eroding Nationalist military strength. After a year of fighting, this strategy proved successful, the KMT losing over a million troops, whilst the CCP had over 2 million troops under arms, largely mobilised from the peasantry in Communist-controlled areas. In March 1947, Chiang's forces achieved a propaganda victory by capturing Yan'an, but Communist forces rapidly counterattacked and retook the territory. This was followed by a general Communist offensive, culminating in the Liaoshen Campaign, which ended in a victory for the CCP. The Communist forces seized the cities of Shenyang and (after a lengthy siege resulting in the deaths of more than 150,000 from starvation) Changchun, where the elite KMT New 1st Army was captured.

    The capture of these large Kuomintang forces, along with significant amounts of combined arms equipment, gave the Communists increased capability for mounting large-scale offensive operations. CCP acquisition of armour and heavy artillery panicked the US State Department, which authorised an increase in the number of US Marines stationed in Chinese coastal cities. After the disastrous KMT defeat in the Huaihai Campaign in early 1949, Marshall's forces were ordered by the new Dewey Administration[14] to engage CCP troops in active combat, rather than simply defend the cities. US forces were to be under their own command, but working in co-operation with the Nationalist Chinese military. US forces performed well in combat against the poorly-trained CCP armies, supported by American air power. whilst the Americans managed to secure areas near major ports such as Shanghai, they failed to take effective control over the countryside. US/KMT policy was to utilise American troops as "housecleaners" to rid rural areas of Communist forces, which was followed by KMT occupation, whilst American forces were deployed elsewhere. This strategy proved futile, as Communist forces, supported by the local peasantry, would eject KMT forces after the departure of American forces from the immediate area.

    The inability of American forces to take control of the countryside also weakened their capacity to secure the coastal ports. Mao's forces cut off the cities from food supplies, necessitating mass import of food aid by the American military, increasing vastly the American operating costs in China[15]. In order to compensate for the dwindling KMT numbers and combat effectiveness, the United States mobilised a huge number of troops to fight the Maoist armies. By 1951, US forces numbered 450,000. In 1951, the introduction of the Sikorsky H-19 Chickasaw allowed increased mobility for US forces, making insertion into remote areas possible[16]. On a tactical level, there was still major shortcomings in troop transport. Although advantageous due to a lack of need for airstrips, the H-19s were highly vulnerable to enemy attack whilst landing, and several helicopters were disabled during or immediately after landing. At first, the Americans trying to counteract these dangers by bombing areas to soften resistance prior to landing. This proved counter-productive, in effect providing advance warning of where the Americans would attack. The failure of this strategy led to an increase in American R&D into the arming of transport helicopters for self-defense. Modified H-19s, armed with heavy machine guns, a 40mm cannon and rockets were deployed to provide self-defense capabilities during dangerous landings. Whilst further American R&D into armed helicopters would not have a major impact on the Chinese Expedition, it would be the basis for the development of American helicopter doctrine. Aside from their transport roles, the H-19s proved useful for "medivac" (medical evacuation) duties. This decreased the number of combat deaths dramatically, as well as the number of amputations.

    Dewey's escalation of the conflict in North China proved to be in vain. American troops consistently defeated the Communist Chinese in open battle, but were incapable of securing a sustainable hold inland required to retain the coastal cities, due to political and budgetary reasons. In late 1952, American troops began to withdraw their troops back to the coastal cities, increasing their efforts to equip and train Kuomintang forces, rather than participating directly in the fighting on the ground. This preceded a general withdrawal of all US troops from China. By November of 1953, the KMT had been defeated on the Chinese mainland and fled to the island of Formosa. In the Western regions, the newly declared People's Republic of China (PRC) recognised the independence of the East Turkestan Republic (ETR), a Uyghur-led Soviet satellite state which controlled the "Sinkiang" region, once a part of China[17].

    Whilst war raged in China, the Korean Peninsula was set ablaze. In 1950, troops of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) crossed the 38th parallel into the Republic of Korea (ROK). The DPRK army, equipped with heavy artillery and tanks supplied by the Soviet Union, rapidly advanced, routing the ROK army and capturing Seoul within a week. The Dewey Administration, whilst denouncing the invasion, did little to assist the corrupt South Korean regime of Syngman Rhee. The speed of the DPRK advance and the existing commitment to the war in China made intervention in Korea impractical. The prevailing attitude within the US State Department was that a unified Communist Korea would be easily undermined if pro-US governments were in place in both Japan and China, and therefore the Chinese theater was of paramount importance. Furthermore, a Communist Korea was not an immediate threat to Japan, given US naval dominance in the Pacific. After an unsuccessful last stand at Pusan, Rhee and his government fled to the United States, where many spent the rest of their lives in exile. Kim Il-Sung, leader of the DPRK, declared Seoul the capital of a unified Korea, which was immediately recognised by the Soviet Union and other friendly states. Evidence of ROK atrocities such as the Jeju Massacre were widely circulated, serving as effective propaganda by the new popular regime in Korea and as a means of demonising the United States by association.[18]

    [14] ITTL, Republican candidate Thomas E. Dewey defeats Democratic candidate Harry Truman in the 1948 Presidential Election.

    [15] ITTL, food aid was utilised by the US military in China in the same manner it was in OTL post-war Germany: weaken the opposition by using food to secure local support. Obviously, this policy was not feasible beyond large cities with large port capacity, and as such, was of limited strategic utility in the China theater.

    [16]The Chickasaw was the US military's first true transport helicopter, and ITTL it has it's "trial by fire" in China, rather than Korea (as OTL). Given a more poorly-defined frontline compared to Korea, the Chickasaw sees more armament modification, creating an early nucleus for the concept of an "attack helicopter". This will have major effects on air cavalry doctrine in later years.

    [17]In OTL, the ETR surrendered to the PRC, but ITTL, the Soviet Union is stronger and Maoist China is weaker and 'owes' more to Soviet support, so the ETR remains in existence as a member of the Soviet camp, ala Mongolia.

    [18]Obviously, there has been no UN intervention in Korea ITTL.
     
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    Chapter 6: The Long Hangover - Britain (1940s)
  • Opening Moves: The Occident (pt.1 Britain)

    The late 1940s were largely a period of consolidation in Western Europe, with the notable exception of Belgium. British politics was most notable for the accession of a Labour government led by Clement Attlee, who (to the surprise of the international union) soundly defeated Conservative candidate and war leader Winston Churchill in the 1945 elections. Attlee's government focused on social policy, establishing the National Health Service (NHS), expanded council housing and nationalised major industries, including banking, civil aviation, coal, iron, steel and wireless. Given the expense of the expanded welfare state and the devastation Britain had endured during the Blitz, rationing and conscription continued throughout the 40s, albeit altered. In a section wave of nationalisations, electricity, gas and large swathes of the transport sector came under the control of the state. Despite the change from private to public ownership, and the expenses these curtailed, there was relatively little change to the structure of these industries, with existing management left intact. This dissatisfied many working-class Britons in nationalised industry, who hoped their unpopular overseers would be replaced by the state.

    The Labour government's first term, that of the late 1940s, saw decreasing popularity caused by the consistently high prices of meat, the poor handling of nationalisation, and Aneuran Bevan's faux pas, a rabid diatribe against the Conservatives which alienated many Britons, who took pride in their culture of restraint. Labour only narrowly won the 1950 election.

    The Labour government's foreign policy focused on collective security in Western Europe, alongside increasing disengagement with outside commitments, such as Palestine and South Asia, which they had fully vacated by 1948. Under Attlee, Britain pursued a nuclear program, primarily to produce nuclear weapons (coal was still seen as a sufficient power source, along with Middle Eastern oil imports). Labour's first term also saw Ireland leave the Commonwealth, becoming a fully independent and sovereign republic in 1948.
     
    Chapter 7: Preening and Posturing - France (1940s)
  • Opening Moves: The Occident (pt.2 France)

    The French experience of the later half of the 1940s was one of instability and political turmoil. During the final months of the Second World War in Europe, and through 1945, war hero Charles de Gaulle led the Provisional Government of the French Republic. On 21st Oct 1945, legislative elections were held in France to elect a Constituent Assembly which would be responsible for drafting a constitution for the Fourth French Republic. De Gaulle and the Tripartisme alliance of the PCF (French Communist Party), MRP (Popular Republican Movement) and SFIO (French Section of the Workers International) voted in favour of a constitution, and 96% of French voters agreed with them. The PCF won the most seats in the French National Assembly, but were closely followed by the MRP, themselves tailed closely by the SFIO. Notably, the right-wing parties got little support, due to the their participation in the Petain government during the War. On the 13th Nov, de Gaulle was unanimously elected as Head of Government by the National Assembly. De Gaulle became increasingly frustrated by the parliamentary procedure, which hadn't been present during his leadership of the Provisional Government. De Gaulle devised a program of nationalisations and a new economic plan, but threatened to resign when the Communists proposed a 20% cut in military expenditure. In an attempt to use his personal prestige to hold the Assembly hostage, de Gaulle threatened to resign, leading political commentators across the Atlantic to characterise his actions as "an ego-driven tantrum not unexpected from a Frenchman". The MRP managed to cobble together a compromise, but on 20 January 1946, de Gaulle abruptedly resigned. This political ploy, intended to rally the French people behind him and restore him as a more powerful executive, backfired. The recovering economy (ironically largely caused by the actions of de Gaulle's government) made de Gaulle appear less indispensible. 'Combat', a Communist publication, said of the crisis: "there was no cataclysm; the plate did not crack".

    De Gaulle was succeeded by Félix Gouin of the SFIO. Gouin's short tenure was marked by the introduction of widespread welfare programs, introducing the first ever compulsory retirement and worker's compensation laws, as well as the re-establishment of the 40-hour law and overtime pay. Workers councils were extended to firms with 50 workers, and industries including coal, gas and insurance were nationalised. In June 1946, Georges Bidault was elected by the National Assembly as the new President. Bidault, who had been involved in foreign affairs, had little enthusiasm for the role of President, and resigned in November after another round of elections. Léon Blum succeeded Bidault. Bidault's only notable changes in office was passing more laws regarding pensions and workers' compensation.

    Blum called for unity of the centre-left and centre-right parties against the Gaullists and Communists, which didn't come to pass. His short, 5-week term in office was followed by Vincent Auriol as President and Paul Ramadier as Prime Minister. The Auriol/Ramadier government saw two major international crises: the Malagasy Uprising of 1947, and the Indochinese War.
     
    Chapter 8: Viva Indépendance - Violent Decolonisation in Madagascar and Indochina (1940s)
  • Opening Moves: Viva Indépendance!

    The repeated defeats of the major European colonial powers in the Second World War severely undermined the authority of those empires in the colonies. For instance, the occupation of French Indochina by the Japanese broke the myth of white invincibility, whilst the use of British soldiers to occupy Madagascar on behalf of the Gaullist Free French forces de-legitimised the authority of the French colonists in the eyes of the Malagasy populace.

    The Vietnamese nationalist revolution began in 1945, in the aftermath of the Second World War. On August 19, the Viet Minh (a Communist/Nationalist militia group led by Ho Chi Minh) began a revolution to pre-emptively seize power in Vietnam. Under the terms of the Japanese surrender, occupying Japanese troops were supposed to maintain law and order. But unwilling to risk their safety for the sakes of their enemy, Japanese troops stood aside as Viet Minh forces occupied public buildings in most major Vietnamese towns and cities. Notably, French officials detained by the Japanese during the war were not released, suggesting implicit support for the anti-colonial struggle from the Japanese forces in Indochina. On August 25, the puppet emperor Bao Dai was forced to abdicate in favour of the Viet Minh in a ceremony at Hue. Despite the unilateral declaration of the Democratic Republic of Vietnam (DRV) by Ho Chi Minh, on September 2, Nationalist Chinese forces moved South to occupy Vietnam north of the 16th parallel. The Viet Minh did not resist, despite their distrust of the Nationalist Chinese both from ethnic and ideological standpoints. South of the 16th parallel, the British briefly occupied Vietnam. The Viet Minh entered into negotiations with the French, willing to make political concessions. By early 1946, French troops had arrived in Indochina and the French withdrew from their promises of autonomy.

    In response to French arrogance, the Viet Minh began a general uprising. Although the initial spark was caused by disputes over import duties at the port of Haiphong, the treatment of the Vietnamese by the French during the re-imposition of colonialism was the gunpowder. Typical of French actions was the bombardment of Haiphong by the French fleet on Nov 23, killing several thousand civilians. The Vietnamese counter-action was to bring 30,000 Viet Minh militia to the outskirts of Haiphong under the command of Vo Nyugen Giap. Despite overwhelming numbers, Viet Minh probing actions could not find any exploitable weaknesses in the French defenses, and withdrew to remote mountain areas to wage guerrilla war. They were joined by Ho Chi Minh after conflict with the French in the capital, Hanoi.

    1947 saw large French offensive operations, including Operation Lea, which failed to behead the Viet Minh command structure. In late 1948, losing political will and unwilling to see the wholesale expulsion of French influence seen in Madagascar, the French began to develop an alternative government in Saigon, leading to the recognition of the "State of Vietnam" within the French Union in 1949. The new state was headed by consistent collaborationist Bao Dai. The French allowed the formation of the Vietnamese National Armee (ANV), the core of which was formed from the Cao Dai and Hoa Hao religious sects and the Binh Xuyen criminal gang (which funded itself through control of organised crime in Saigon, notably sex slavery and narcotics). Laos and Cambodia were also given independence within the Union. In 1950, the establishment of Communist control over Yunnan province allowed the overland supply of the Viet Minh by the Maoist PRC. Giap begins reorganising the guerrilla Viet Minh into a conventional army, and after a grinding war of attrition, expels the French by the end of 1955[19].

    The French withdrew from Indochina, dividing the nation into the DRV in the North, and the Republic of Vietnam (ROV) in the South. It wouldn't be long before this region was again embroiled in war.

    In Madagascar, the war against the French had been comparatively short. In 1946, nationalist Malagasy (primarily from the priviledged highland Merina people) formed the Democratic Movement for Malagasy Restoration (MDRM). Later that year, the 1946 French constitution declared full citizenship for all Malagasy, but this did little to stop French mistreatment of the Malagasy. The constitution also divided Madagascar administratively, and in local elections, the MDRM won the majority in all provinces except Mahajanga. On 29 March 1947, forces associated with the Malagasy nationalist secret societies (VVS and Jiny) attack French plantations on the East side of the island. New historical evidence suggests that the uprising may have been prompted by the British expatriate community on the island, although these theories have yet to be confirmed. What is known is that the reprisals by French colonial police led to large-scale uprisings, led by the MDRM and their rivals, PADESM (the Party for the Malagasy Dispossessed), which was largely composed of former slaves of the Merina and ethnic groups from the East Coast. The MDRM-affiliated rebels quickly took control of 80% of the country, aided by the co-operation of the Sakalava people of the West Coast and the Mahafaly of the South.

    The French response was fairly lethargic, given preoccupation with the war in the more profitable Annamese and Tonkin colonies. This allowed the rebels to overwhelm many of the French reinforcements, although new evidence suggests they were supplied by British and/or South African interests, given the proliferation of Sten submachineguns in photographs of victorious MDRM rebels[20]. As the war raged, a civil war between PADESM and MDRM provided a concerning precedent for post-independence Africa. The entire Bezanozano people, who supported PADESM but were geographically close to Merina land, were enslaved en masse, whilst the Betsimisaraka and Antaifasy, also loyal to the Merina, were terrorised as the French withdrew in September 1948.

    Upon French (begrudging) recognition of Malagasy independence, the Malagasy Republic was denied French Union membership, as well as the ability to trade with the states of the French Union. To avoid a complete economic collapse, Madagascar was forced to use South Africa as a trade intermediary with the Commonwealth, a relationship which was forced tighter as the apartheid regime in South Africa faced increasing pressure by Congolese-sponsored majority rule groups. The Merina elite maintained it's grip on power by selling the South Africans sapphires discovered at Ilakaka in the 1950s [21], which was then sold for a higher price on the international market. The arms-for-gems deal finally came to an end upon the collapse of apartheid, when the MDRM were overthrown by the resurgent PADESM, who ushered in a period of reconciliation.

    [19] The longer Chinese Civil War means less supplies for the Viet Minh early on, slowing progress.

    [20] There is some evidence for British instigation of the rebellion, but they didn't supply the rebels IOTL.

    [21] IOTL, this mine wasn't discovered until the 1990s.
     
    Chapter 9: A Great Compromise - Palestine (1940s)
  • Opening Moves: Palestine

    In the aftermath of the Second World War, revelations of the horrendous scale of Nazi atrocities against the Jewish population of Europe spurred support, or at least begrudging acceptance of the Zionist project in Palestine. The events in Palestine are particularly bizarre, an anomaly even in an area as dynamic and ever-evolving as the Middle East. What seemed on the surface a conflict between two religious groups became increasingly representative of ethnic tensions. The bi-national state established after the war, whilst intended to be inclusive, increasingly divided the two communities, Arab and Judaic, with policies intended to accommodate both peoples. The dream of labour Zionists and liberal Arabs, a Palestine where the two peoples could live together peacefully, was shattered by the arrogance of Jewish leaders and the insecurity of Arab authorities.

    As early as 1930, there was Arab opposition to the British Mandatory authority. Syrian preacher Izz ad-Din al-Qassam led his Black Hand insurgent group against the British police and Zionist settlers in Palestine. In 1935, al-Qassam was disarmed and arrested by British forces, but concerned by the potential uproar caused by the execution of al-Qassam, instead transferred him to French custody in Syria[22], which separated him from contact with the Black Hand cells, which were hunted down one-by-one by British police and Jewish auxiliaries.

    In 1937, Mufti Haj Amin al-Husseini was exiled from Palestine and all secular positions of authority by the British, for agitating against British rule. The expulsion of the Grand Mufti and the marginalisation of the other al-Husseini's led to the political dominance of the Nashashibi family. The Nashashibis were favoured by the British as significantly more moderate than the al-Husseinis, and had experienced a variety of benefits from the patronage of the British. The British allowed the Nashashibis to create a police force of Arabs to support the British, paralleling the Jewish auxiliary forces. through the Second World War, to decrease demands on the British, the Nashashibis and their allies were given a variety of governmental roles in the Mandate of Palestine. This would form the nucleus of the independent Palestinian state[23].

    As the flames of war burnt out in Europe, the Labour government in the United Kingdom withdrew from a variety of international responsibilities, such as their presence in India, Pakistan, Burma and Hyderabad[24]. Another area where cost heavily outweighed reward was Palestine. In 1948, British forces left the area, handing authority over to the Nashashibis. In response, the Jewish hardline Irgun militia began a series of offensive operations to establish Jewish dominance of the new state. Initial success against the Arab police forces, and some small-scale incidents of local Arab officers persecuting Jewish communities caused some popularity of the movement amongst Jewish populations, particularly in cities such as Haifa and Tel Aviv. Despite larger numbers, the Arab authorities were often outgunned by the Irgun, who had inexplicably (and ironically) gained access to a number of formerly German STG44 assault rifles. Abdullah I of Jordan offered assistance, but the formerly pro-Jordanian Nashashibis had been feuding with Abdullah over a perceived snub at a banquet held in celebration of Abdullah's retitling in 1946[25]. Tensions weren't helped by Abdullah's well-known designs on Palestine.

    Rather than take Jordanian assistance, the Palestinian government accepted offers of support from King Farouk of Egypt. A heavily-armed contingent from Egypt came to the assistance of the Palestinian Arabs, armed with tanks and air cover from Supermarine Spitfires, under the command of Mohammed Naguib. Given the lack of a Jewish air force, the Spitfires were of limited use for strafing, compared to the effective Curtiss P-40 Tomahawk ground-attack aircraft, which harassed Irgun units. The Irgun had no reliable answer to the Egyptian Crusader tanks (also ironically named), despite disabling a handful with improvised explosive devices. As the tide turned against the Irgun, the various Jewish kibbutzim prepared defenses against feared Arab reprisals. The Haganah, or Jewish Defence Forces, also prepared to defend Jewish communities from Arab attack. But the Palestinian government guaranteed the safety of the Jewish communities. Experience of Arab hostility had bred a healthy skepticism in the Jews of Palestine, and they refused to disarm. In response, Raghib al-Nashashibi, the head of the Palestinian government, created a compromise solution.

    Palestine was to become a bi-national state, where all citizens, Jewish, Arab or otherwise, were equal. A Majlis (parliament) would be established, with at least 1/3 of the seats to be occupied by Jews, regardless of electoral results. The President would be decided by popular vote (and would therefore inevitably go to an Arab, given the demographic balance of the time), whilst the Prime Minister (despite it's name, a largely ceremonial post) by the Jewish population. The first Prime Minister of Israel was Albert Einstein, the "most famous Jew since Jesus" (according to one American journalist), but whilst the Prime Minister was supposed to be an authority for the Jewish populace, David Ben-Gurion held real power, as leader of the Haganah (and due to Einstein's busy scientific career). Raghib al-Nashashibi was President of Palestine. As a compromise to the Jews, immigration laws strongly favoured Jews, and rejected any immigrant with suspected or proven Nazi ties. Furthermore, the treasury was divided into the State Treasury and the "Jewish Development Fund" which was funded partially by the extensive Jewish diaspora, particularly in America. Despite Jewish minority status, the Jewish Development Fund had more money than the State Treasury, whilst the Treasury had to provide funds for both the Arab majority and the financially self-sufficient Jewish minority. This was resented by many Arabs, as the Jews became something of a priviledged minority. Some religious Jews were also opposed to the new state, given it's secular status. These Jews believed the state that occupies the land of Israel should be a Jewish state.

    The bi-national state experienced significant controversy over it's name. "Israel" was suggested, but rejected as being "too Jewish", whilst "Southern Syria" and "Cisjordan" were also rejected due to the seeming encouragement of irredentism from neighbouring Arab states. In the end, the "State of Palestine" was decided upon, for it's political neutrality[26].

    [22] - In OTL, al-Qassam was killed in a shootout with the British authorities, which outraged the Palestinian Arabs. Without this event, there is less militant opposition to British rule, leading to less favouritism for the Jews on the part of the British.

    [23] - The Nashashibis were historically the al-Husseinis' (or al-Husaynis') rivals, and were essentially delegitimised by their support for British authority, and scattered to other Muslim states.

    [24] - Yes, Hyderabad is independent. Butterflies, right? Indeed :)

    [25] - This didn't actually happen OTL, and the Nashashibis supported the idea of union with Jordan, but given the commonality of Middle-Eastern leaders' tiffs with each other, I don't think this is particularly implausible.

    [26] - Whilst "Palestine" and "Palestinians" are politically loaded terms in OTL, ITTL they simply mean "from Palestine" without the Arab connotation, or anti-Israel connotation. It's merely a geographical, not a political or ethnic designation.
     
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    Chapter 10: An Agitated Archipelago - Indonesian Decolonisation (1940s)
  • Opening Moves: The Indonesian Revolution

    Like in Vietnam, Japanese occupation of the East Indies severely undermined the authority of the colonial administrators. During the war, in an effort to undermine the existing social structures promoted by the Dutch, the Japanese occupiers established local community organisations, which provided impetus to the development of a united Indonesian consciousness. The Japanese also elevated notable post-war figures such as Sukarno and Hatta, who co-operated with the Japanese.

    After the defeat of Japan in the Second World War, Indonesian nationalists acted quickly to preempt the re-establishment of Dutch authority. On 17 August 1945, Sukarno and Hatta proclaimed the independence of the "Republic of Indonesia", under pressure from radical youth groups known as 'pemuda'. The declaration of independence was well-received in Java, but it was mid September before the outlying islands were all informed of the declaration. Under the terms of the surrender, the Japanese were required both to disarm and maintain law and order, seemingly oxymoronic orders. To resolve this dilemma, many of the Japanese units handed weapons to Indonesian nationalists trained by the Japanese. Many pemuda also joined pro-independence groups. These units, including the officially disbanded (but still operational) Giyugun and Heiho groups (which were founded by the Japanese) quickly seized control of Java. By early September, nationalist militia controlled Java's largest cities and had a presence on most islands.

    An unfortunate consequence of the revolution was the treatment of minority groups perceived as pro-Dutch or anti-Indonesian, including Dutch internees, Eurasians (individuals of mixed European and Indonesian descent), Ambonese and Chinese. These out-groups often experienced violence, intimidation and other criminal activity. Many of the Javanese raja (local kings) immediately declared themselves Republican, but outer island raja were often less optimistic, wary of Javanese domination, and often enriching themselves from association with the Dutch. Despite this, the Republicans experienced substantial support from the Balinese, Bugis, Makassarese and in South Sulawesi.

    By November 1945, a parliamentary system had been set up in the Republic. Sutan Sjahrir was announced to be Prime Minister, being the third member of the Sukarno-Hatta-Sjahrir nationalist triumvirate. Despite Sjahrir's role as an anti-Japanese partisan leader during the Second World War, the Dutch criticised the new separatist government as ruled by "collaborators of Japanese fascism", and appealed to the other Allies to take action. In response, the Australians, already entrenched in New Guinea, occupied islands in Eastern Indonesia, primarily the Moluccas. Allied forces in Indonesia were under the command of a British commander, Lt.Gen. Sir Philip Christison. In October 1945, the Japanese had tried to re-establish their authority in Java, alongside 6,000 British Indian troops. The pemuda retaliated by executing Japanese prisoners, and the British Indian troops became bogged down in fierce fighting in Surabaya, which led to the death of the C.O, Brigadier Mallaby. After 3 days, Surabaya was taken, with many Indonesian militiamen killed, but the battle was key in the development of a culture of resistance amongst Indonesians. Allied forces repatriated Japanese and evacuated Europeans and Eurasians, who still form a notable minority in the Netherlands, where they integrated naturally to Dutch society.

    By January 1946, Dutch forces had taken Jakarta, the largest city in Indonesia. In response, the Republican government moved to Yogyakarta, where they had the key support of the local ruler, Sri Sultan Hamengkubuwono IX. Resistance to the Dutch continued, as they were incapable of securing the loyalty of rural villages. In November, the Republicans and the Dutch signed the Linggadjati Agreement, recognising the Indonesian Republic's de-facto authority over Java, Madura and Sumatra, within a greater federal structure, the "United States of Indonesia", which was to be closely tied to the Netherlands. Issues arose when the two factions signed different versions of the Treaty. A revised treaty was signed by the Indonesians, whilst a severely stripped-down version was ratified by the Dutch lower house.

    On 20 July 1947, Dutch forces commenced 'Operatie Product' in an attempt to conquer the fledgling Republic. They claimed the Republic had repeatedly violated the Linggadjati Agreement. The Dutch quickly drove the Republicans out of parts of Sumatra and much of Java. The Republicans were largely confined to Yogyakarta, which came under siege from the Dutch. To minimise expenses, the Dutch seized control of key assets in Indonesia, such as oil, coal, Javan deep-water ports and agricultural plantations. The Dutch military campaign was condemned by the United Nations, especially by Australia, India, the USA and USSR. The UNSC pushed for negotiations between the Dutch and Republicans, which resulted in a ceasefire on 4 August 1947.

    The UNSC, trying to permanently settle the conflict, brokered the Renville Agreement, negotiated on the USS Renville, a Haskell-class attack transport ship. The ceasefire invoked by the Renville Agreement (which was ratified in January 1948) drew a boundary along the Van Mook line, dividing Java between Dutch and Republican control. In February, the Republican Siliwangi Battalion marched from the Republican zone of West Java to Central Java, clashing with Dutch troops at Mount Slamet. The Dutch took advantage of this infraction to initiate Operation Kraai in December 1948, a major offensive against the Republic. The Dutch conquered Yogyakarta and all the major Republican cities in Java and Sumatra. All but six Republican ministers were captured. Republican Chief of Staff General Sudirman escaped, however, and continued the guerrilla campaign against the Dutch. Lt. Col. Suharto attacked Yogyakarta in a dawn attack on 1 March 1949. The attack expelled the Dutch for 6 hours, but the city was retaken by Royal Netherlands East Indies (KNIL) troops, and Lt. Col. Suharto was killed in the fighting [27].

    The Dutch offensive was met with international condemnation. In January 1949, the UNSC passed a resolution demanding the reinstatement of the Republican government. The United States (turned against the Dutch cause by the perceived illegality of Operation Kraai) cut off all aid to the Netherlands East Indies, whilst factions within Congress called for the cession of all aid to the Netherlands, which amounted to approximately $1 billion. In their East Indies campaigns, the Netherlands had already spent roughly half that sum. Congress was influenced by the Republic's suppression of a Indonesian Communist Party (PKI) uprising at Madiun in late 1948, which suggested that the new Indonesian Republic could potentially be an anti-communist ally. They also provided a positive alternative to the radical Darul Islam, an islamic insurgency intent on the creation of an Indonesian theocracy.

    The period between August and November 1949 saw the Dutch-Indonesian Round Table Conference, where the Dutch accepted the Republic of Indonesia's presence within a United States of Indonesia (USI), whilst the Republic agreed to accept responsibility for NEI debt, amounting to 4.3 billion GBP. The Federal USI was immediately embroiled in turmoil. An attempted anti-Republican coup by the Legion of Ratu Adil (APRA), founded by Dutch commando and war criminal Raymond Westerling was defeated, and in response, the Pasundan state within the USI was dissolved into the Republican state on 23 January 1950. This reflected the objective of the Indonesian Republic: the establishment of a unitary, not federal, state. In South Makassar, Ambonese KNIL troops clashed with those of the Republic. The Christian Ambonese traditionally supported the Dutch, and were wary of dominance by Muslim Javanese. These tensions were also reflected in the declaration of the Republic of South Maluku (RMS) which was declared in Ambon. in early 1950. The separatist Ambonese state was suppressed in a campaign spanning between July and November.

    On 17 August 1950, Sukarno declared Indonesia a unitary republic. It was a far cry from the old colonial/feudal social order which had been violently overthrown, sometimes excessively, in the Indonesian social revolution. Local civilians rose up against monarchs and other traditional authorities. But only time could tell whether Indonesian society would change for the better, or for worse.

    [27] The death of Suharto butterflies away his (this isn't conclusively proven, but is my belief) assassination of military figures which was blamed on the Communists, leading to their purge and Suharto's rise. This means butterflying away the military coup, allowing a less right-wing Indonesia. We'll see what happens between the PKI and Sukarno...
     
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    Chapter 11: Summary of the 1940s
  • The 1940s - A Decade in Short

    The latter half of the 1940s saw political upheaval throughout the world, as well as major technological and cultural shifts. The aftermath of the Second World War saw the beginning of a New World Order, characterised by competition between the Soviet Union and the United States.

    In Asia, the old dominance by European powers came to an end. Hyderabad, Pakistan, India, Burma, Ceylon and Sikkim gained independence as Britain retreated from South Asia. Further East, French authority in Vietnam was being challenged, and the Dutch lost control of the East Indies, with the exception of the Western half of New Guinea. In 1946, the Philippines gained independence from the USA. US forces were drawn into a major ground war in China, which would rage until the mid-1950s.

    The Middle East also experienced the retreat of colonialism. Syria, Egypt, Palestine, Lebanon and Iraq all became independent in the decade, although the 1940s saw relatively little of the violence that would characterise later years.

    Africa saw relatively few developments, beyond Madagascar's liberation from the French and the beginnings of institutional apartheid in South Africa.

    Argentina saw the accession of Juan Domingo Peron and the institution of his Third Way ideology, which would dominate Argentine politics. He would, along with his glamourous wife Eva, be one of the most enduring statespeople of Latin America. In Brazil, Getulio Vargas was overthrown by a military coup. Venezuela saw an attempted coup against President Romulo Gallegos [28], which failed. As the 1950s opened, Jorge Eliecer Gaitan became president of Colombia [29], which would have major consequences for Caribbean politics.

    Europe saw the consolidation of Soviet power in Eastern Europe, and the beginnings of economic revival in Western Europe. The 1948 coup in Czechoslovakia entrenched Soviet power there, as well as being a likely cause for the narrow defeat of the Popular Democratic Front in the 1948 Italian elections. In 1949, the Republic of Ireland left the Commonwealth, whilst Iceland had gained it's independence in 1944.

    In the fields of science and technology, massive innovations in computing were made. In 1941, the first working programmable, fully automatic programming computer, Konrad Zuse's Z3, was built. Other utilitarian inventions were also created, including commercial television, Velcro and tupperware, but these paled in comparison with the world-changing inventions of radar, atomic weapons, ballistic missiles and jet aircraft. The quantum and game theories were developed, as was nuclear physics, cryptography and modern evolutionary synthesis.

    1940s cinema was dominated by film noir, whilst music was dominated first by swing, and later by crooners such as Frank Sinatra. Developments in pop in the 1940s revealed the existence of a hitherto unknown market demographic. Teenagers, who would become the most zealous of all music consumers, shaping later developments in music. Literature was dominated by personalities such as Ernest Hemingway, Jean-Paul Sartre and Albert Camus, but 1949 saw the politically-influential English-language novel "1984" by George Orwell, promoting the view of Communism as dystopian in the Anglosphere. Beginning with the occupation of France by the Nazis in 1940, Hollywood became the dominant axis for Western fashion, being set by glamourous Hollywood starlets such as Rita Hayworth, Marilyn Monroe and Elizabeth Taylor. Male stars were suave and urbane, represented by personalities such as Walt Disney, Richard Burton and Gregory Peck.

    In sport, Heavyweight boxing champion Joe Louis started the erosion of racial barriers in the United States, becoming extremely popular, despite his negro racial background, and became a symbol of anti-Nazism after his defeat of German contender Max Schmeling, Hitler's champion of the "Aryan master race". By competing in the PGA, Louis also broke down racial barriers in golf, although it was still considered by many as a "rich white man's sport". Louis' fights against Schmeling seemed to parallel the experience of the forces of freedom in WWII: initial defeat, followed by resounding and total victory. Baseball saw a huge revival after WWII, due to the return of many major league players from service in the War. Joe DiMaggio became a baseball legend after maintaining a 53-game hitting streak, the longest ever recorded. The 1948 Summer Olympics saw Marie Provaznikova of the International Gymnastics Federation defect, refusing to return to her home nation of Czechoslovakia after the coup. The Soviet Union was conspicuously absent from the Games, having refused the invitation. The US got the most medals, with a count of 84, compared to the next highest, Sweden, with 44.

    [28] In OTL, this coup was successful, installing a military government. The coup was in response to Gallegos' populism.

    [29] Gaitan was assassinated in OTL, which led to La Violencia, the cause of Colombia's chronic instability in our world. ITTL, he isn't assassinated, leading to closer ties between leftist Venezuela and Colombia.
     
    Chapter 12: The White Redoubts - Southern Africa (1950s)
  • A New World: Southern Africa

    In Southern Africa, the 1950s saw the entrenchment of white-minority rule and South African dominance of the region. The government of South Africa introduced a variety of discriminatory legislation to marginalise non-whites. The first of these was the Population Registration Act (1950), which introduced ID cards for over-18s, specifying racial group (White, Black, Indian or Coloured). This was followed by the Immorality Act (1950), an anti-miscegenation law which echoed of the Protection of German Blood laws in Nazi Germany. A more serious law passed by the South African parliament was the Group Areas Act (1950), which formally segregated residential areas in South African towns and cities, where different races had formerly lived side by side. This act was strengthened by the Prevention of Illegal Squatting Act (1951), which allowed the demolition of (largely black) shanty towns. The Bantu Authorities Act (1951) took this initiative even further, legalising the deportion of blacks into designated 'homeland areas', which tended to coincide with areas of poor economic value.

    Equaling residential restrictions in severity was the political restrictions enacted by the South African Parliament. The Suppression of Communism Act (1950) defined Communism so broadly that any "scheme aimed at bringing about any political, industrial, social or economic change" was banned. In effect, anything that opposed the National Party's rule. To strengthen the National Party's electoral strength, the Separate Representation of Voters Act (1951) was introduced. This revoked the franchise of non-whites, placing them on powerless ethnic voting roles. The disenfranchisement of the Coloured minority was considered unlawful by the Supreme Court, when challenged in the case of Harris v Minister of the Interior. The government responded by increasing the number of Appellate Division judges from 5 to 11, the 6 new judges all being pro-government. Having taken away their voting rights, the government sought to force the Bantu peoples into unskilled labour by passing the Bantu Education Act (1953), which enforced racially-segregated educational facilities, as well as a separate curriculum for blacks and whites.

    In response to these policies, the African National Congress (ANC) adopted the Programme of Action, a strategy to defy the government through non-violent resistance, inspired by the tactics of Mahatma Ghandi. In 1952, in alliance with the SAIC, Congress of Trade Unions and the Coloured Peoples' Congress, the ANC embarked on the Defiance Campaign, a major non-violent resistance movement amongst primarily Black, but also Coloured and left-wing white (largely Jewish) communities. The government moved to evict non-whites from the historic black cultural centre of Sophiatown in Johannesburg, which was received with protests from locals, who refused to move. In response, in February 1955, Sophiatown was invaded by 2,000 policemen, armed with rifles, handguns and knobkierrie clubs, forcibly moving black families from Sophiatown to Soweto township. The other ethnic groups were also dispersed: Coloureds to Eldorado Park in Southern Johannesburg, Indians to Lenasia (South of Soweto) and Chinese to central Johannesburg. The area was rezoned and renamed "Triompf" and became a suburb populated largely by poorer Afrikaners.

    Whilst the National Party was consolidating power over South Africa, the Merina hovas that ruled Madagascar were experiencing crisis. The economy was in ruins, and other ethnic groups were starting to develop underground political organisations to oppose the Merina. In 1952, the Merina elite found their salvation in the discovery of the world's largest diamond mine at Ilakaka, in the South of Madagascar. Incapable of extracting the minerals effectively, the Malagasy sought capital and technical assistance from South Africa and Rhodesia, where several businessmen, including Ernest Oppenheimer of De Beers [30] showed interest in the Ilakaka mine. After Oppenheimer's investment, numerous other mining magnates scrambled to invest. The South African government provided arms and cash to the hovas in exchange for rights to the exploitation of the mine. As expected, very little of the wealth developed by the Ilakaka mine was seen by ordinary Malagasy, who were conscripted into mining, often by hand. They were forced to work, even during periods of extreme heat, with little food or water. Many that collapsed from exhaustion were summarily executed, or subject to other atrocities, such as forced sodomy and dismemberment. This would prove merely the beginning of collaboration between the apartheid regime and the Merina. Moderates within the MDRM elite had been purged, such as Jacques Rabemananjara. Instead, Joseph Raseta took power, and who had been a promising intellectual quickly descended into a kleptocratic tyrant [31].

    To the North, the Federation of Rhodesia and Nyasaland (FRN) had been founded. The Federation had originated in the designs of the Southern Rhodesian European elite to gain control of the copper mines of Northern Rhodesia. Although many considered the Federation an economically-sound concept, progress had been slowed by rivalry between the British Colonial Office and the Commonwealth Relations Office (formerly the Dominion Office). The Colonial Office controlled Northern Rhodesia and Nyasaland, whilst the CRO indirectly controlled Southern Rhodesia, although in reality, it was largely administered by Sir Godfrey Huggins (by 1955, the 1st Viscount Malvern). Huggins proposed a unitary state, rather than a Federation, but this idea was blocked by the British, and instead a Federation was preferred by them, who feared Southern Rhodesian dominance of the property and income franchise. On 8 November 1950, negotiations began for a federal state began. Although many issues between the parties were overcome through compromise, Colonial Office Assistant Undersecretary for African Affairs Sir Andrew Cohen proved key in overcoming political deadlocks. Cohen, a Jew, personally hoped that the other territories would moderate white dominance in Southern Rhodesia, seeing the paternalistic racism of Rhodesia preferable to the open White supremacy of South Africa. He was to be mistaken. By 1953, negotiations were complete and a referendum was held (only Whites were eligible to vote), which established the Federation. Legally, the Federation was semi-independent, a "quasi-Dominion", with 5 main branches of government: Federal, British and a branch for each of the 3 territories.

    Huggins became Prime Minister from 1953 to 1956 (succeeded by Sir Roy Welensky), overseeing a period of economic success, which silenced many critics of the Federation. Upon founding, it's GDP was 350 million GBP, which jumped to 450 million a mere 2 years later. This wealth was highly concentrated around the white minority, however. In 1955, construction began on the dam at Kariba, the largest human-built dam in the world at that time. The construction of the dam necessitated the removal of about 57,000 of the local Tonga people living along the Zambezi. In the early 1960s, Operation Noah was also mounted, saving thousands of native animals from Lake Kariba's rising levels.

    The Federation was initially fairly liberal in regards to native rights. There were African junior ministers, whilst a decade earlier, only 70 Africans were eligible to vote. While intended to appease African demands for representation, it wasn't considered enough, and Africans began to increasingly demand the same priviledges and rights as Whites. British opinion also began to turn against the Federation. In 1956, Northern Rhodesian Governor Sir Arthur Benson wrote a confidential letter to Whitehall criticising the Federation and Prime Minister Welensky. Two years later, Huggins managed to obtain a copy, revealing it's contents to Welensky. British Prime Minister MacMillan did little to prevent the developing crisis, which he attributed to inter-ministry rivalry and Welensky's personal anger at the insults in the letter. British-Rhodesian relations were irreparably damaged. Meanwhile, Dr Hastings Banda of Nyasaland returned from Britain, and Kenneth Kaunda became the leader of the Zambian African National Congress (ZANC). In 1959, the FRN banned the ZANC, as well as declaring a state of emergency. Welensky used the state of emergency to transition the FRN to a unitary state, abolishing all but the Federal branches of government [32], as well as unilaterally declaring independence. The secessionist FRN was supported both by the South African government and the Portuguese, who had recently built a railroad from Luanda to Lourenco Marques through Rhodesia, which was used to export North Rhodesian copper [33].

    [31] I'm not actually sure how likely Raseta is to be corrupt. It seems to be quite difficult to find information about early Malagasy politicians. If anyone knows a more likely candidate, please let me know.

    [32] This obviously did not happen IOTL, and there would be considerable opposition to such a move. However, the Rhodesian Army is on the side of Welensky and the federal government.

    [33] The Portuguese in Angola and Mozambique are ITTL very supportive of both Apartheid South Africa and the Federation of Rhodesia and Nyasaland.
     
    Chapter 13a: Of Suez and Sudan - The Middle East (1950s)
  • A New World: Blood on the Sands (pt.1)

    Through the 1950s, the situation in the Middle East developed into a multifaceted competition that would persist for decades. In particular, the decade saw the rise of pan-Arabism, the division of the Arab world between Republican and Monarchist forces, and the genesis of the State of Canaan.

    These tensions developed as British influence over the Middle-Eastern region disintegrated. October 1951 saw the unilateral repudiation of the 1936 Anglo-Egyptian Treaty by Farouk's kingdom of Egypt, legally making the Suez Canal Zone occupied territory. The terms of the 1936 treaty had given Britain 20 year rights over the Canal Zone, and the British were entrenched in one of the largest military complexes in the world, garrisoned by 80,000 troops. On the 25th of January 1952, British forces attempted to disarm an auxiliary police barracks at Ismailia which had been linked to fedayeen that raided the Canal, leading to a firefight where 41 Egyptians were killed. Retaliatory attacks on the Suez Canal garrison troops was condemned by the monarchy, sparking major protests against the government, eventuating the 1952 Free Officers' Coup.

    The Free Officers were a cell of anti-monarchist military officers, represented primarily by Mohammed Naguib and Gamal Abdel Nasser, who looked to overthrow the corrupt and inneffectual King Farouk. The Free Officers represented the middle-class, rather than the corrupt elite, and had significant prestige from the Egyptian intervention in Palestine. With minor assistance from the Muslim Brotherhood and the (Communist) Democratic Movement of National Liberation, the Free Officers captured loyalist army officers and forced Farouk to abdicate in favour of his infant son, Faud II. In 1953, the Free Officers abolished the monarchy, declaring a republic. Farouk fled with his family to Monaco, and his possessions were seized and largely auctioned by the Egyptian government, aside from his enormous pornography collection, which was documented, ridiculed and destroyed. Egypt was now ruled by the Revolution Command Council (RCC). Despite support from both America AND the Soviet Union, the RCC immediately began to isolate and weaken Communist elements. The RCC rapidly passed the Agrarian Reform Law, seizing all European-owned land in Egypt, whilst redistributing the nationalised land amongst peasant farmers. To avoid the concentration of land, the RCC limited land ownership to 200 feddans (approx. 200 acres). At the onset of 1953, the RCC outlawed all political parties, including the Muslim Brotherhood, which was forced underground. In February, the RCC approved a secular constitution. After the abolition of the monarchy in July, General Naguib became the first President and Prime Minister, whilst Nasser was appointed Deputy Premier and Minister of the Interior. Political intrigues led to the eventual ousting of General Naguib, as Nasser became the true power in Egypt. Despite his prestige, he disagreed with most of the officers in the RCC, as he believed in the transition back to civilian rule. Nasser became RCC chairman and Prime Minister in 1955, Naguib being forced into a purely ceremonial role.

    As parallel events would show, even after the retreat of the British, the fates of Egypt and the Sudan remained inextricably linked. The RCC, hostile to British regional presence, were anxious to remove the British presence to the South, in Sudan. Incapable of ousting the British presence militarily, the RCC instead took a diplomatic approach, noting that the British presence was largely based on the Anglo-Egyptian treaties. If Egypt revoked sovereignty over Sudan, there would be no legal justification for continued British presence. So in 1952, in the aftermath of the coup, Egypt discarded its claim on Sudan. The British began to make immediate provisions for withdrawal. As the 1st January 1956 independence day approached, tensions arose between the Muslim North and the Christian/Animist South.

    In 1953, Ismail al-Azhari won local elections in the Sudan. Al-Azhari was a proponent of union between Egypt and Sudan, with little sympathy for the South Sudanese population, who he intended to control through military and police repression. This didn't sit well with the South Sudanese, and on 18 August 1955, the British-administered (but who answered to Khartoum) Sudan Defence Force Equatorial Corps mutinied in Torit, quickly seizing Juba, Yei and Maridi[34]. With independence so close, the British authorities refused to get involved, so Sudanese loyalist forces entered into bloody fighting with the mutineers. Although the mutineers were quickly evicted from Yei, the positions in Juba and Maridi managed to repulse the attackers under heavy casualties. Although sources remain murky, they suggest that the Sudanese loyalist forces that captured Yei engaged in a variety of atrocities, including rape and summary execution of civilians. This galvanised opposition to the Sudanese government, and many South Sudanese joined the resistance movement, which was led by Sudanese army defector Gordon Muortat Mayen. The regular forces of the mutiny were led by Joseph Lagu.

    Fighting continued upon independence, and fearing the secession of the South, al-Azhari begged for assistance from the Egyptians[35]. The Sudanese-born Naguib supported the idea of intervention. For Nasser, the proposal was more complicated. Whilst Nasser was a pan-Arabist, he was wary to inherit the volatile Southern part of Sudan. Nevertheless, it was determined that a unstable Sudan was potentially more dangerous to Egypt, and in March 1956, the Egyptian Army intervened in Sudan, much to Britain's chagrin.

    Palestine experienced instability on par with that of Egypt and the Sudan. As the forties rolled into the fifties, the compromise between the Hebrew and Arab communities proved unsustainable. Facing pressure from Palestinian Arabs, who were concerned at the integrity of their position due to the volume of Jewish immigration from Europe. The demographics suggested that time was distinctly in the Jews' favour. To avoid pogroms, al-Nashashibi desperately forced an immediate halt to Jewish immigration. This was poorly received by the Jewish community, which became increasingly insular and anti-government. Despite their priviledges, it had become clear that the Jews were still a minority in Palestine, and it was widely perceived that al-Nashashibi had forsaken the Jewish community in favour of the Arabs, who had always resented Jewish priviledges. These perceptions fueled support for the Canaanite Movement, a far-right pseudo-fascist political and social movement led by intellectuals, particularly the poet Uri'el Shelakh (better known by the pseudonym Yonatan Ratosh) and his brothers Gamli'el (AKA Avidan) and Uzi'el (Uzzi Ornan). The Canaanite Movement stressed a secular Hebrew identity, rather than a 'Jewish' identity. They saw Judaism as an improper basis for a nation. Instead, they viewed Jews as ethnic Hebrews that merely subscribed to Judaism as a faith. They also saw Arabs as fellow Hebrews, held back by belief in Islam, which they felt made them "medieval" and "backward". Initially supported by factions such as the Lehi, they became increasingly popular amongst the mainstream Jewish community, particularly the youth, who often distanced themselves from Judaism, and disapproved of the communal tension between Arabs and Jews, which they saw as being caused by religion. The binational state was seen as an inneffective compromise by Canaanite adherents[36]. Al-Nashashibi went into exile in Kuwait, whilst Einstein was overseas promoting scientific education in Europe, and who simply returned to the United States.

    June 1954 saw a overthrow of the Nashashibi government by Canaanite militants. Having significant influence over the Jewish militias (which had been guaranteed their integrity by Nashashibi years earlier), Avidan took command of various militias, who were heavily influenced by Canaanism, and took over the police stations, government buildings and post office in Jerusalem. The heavily-armed and competent militias surrounded the small army barracks outside of Jerusalem, which quickly surrendered. The Canaanites declared a new government, immediately repealing the immigration laws and declaring the new state of Canaan[37]. Within a few months, the Canaanites had consolidated their hold on power.

    The attitude towards Arabs by Canaanites was odd. They were harsh against Arab opposition, but ideologically supported the idea of "Hebrew (Semitic) unity". Nevertheless, they were very hostile towards Arab states, particularly Nasserist Egypt, seeing pan-Arabism as contradictory to pan-Semitism. This hostility made them a valuable ally of the British and French in the upcoming Suez Crisis. The Free Officers Movement had come to power in Egypt promising to restore the dignity of the nation, which had suffered under British domination. Despite marginalising European influence, it was still a national disgrace that the Canal was held by the British. In 1954, the Egyptians and British had struck a deal involving the evacuation of British troops by 1956, which was carried out. But in June 1956, Nasser nationalised the now-defenceless Suez Canal. As a response, Anglo-American financial and technical support for the Aswan Dam was rescinded, to be replaced by Soviet aid and technical expertise. Finally, after confidential meetings and political contention at home, British, French and Canaanite troops attacked the Suez Canal and the Sinai Peninsula. Royal Marines quickly seized Port Said, on the African side of the Canal, whilst French paratroopers captured Suez itself. Canaanite troops occupied the Sinai territory. Meanwhile, British troops in Uganda invaded the Southern half of Sudan, allying themselves with the native resistance against the Egyptians.

    Militarily, the invaders had incredible success. In the Sinai, Canaan's army was almost unopposed, whilst the British and French had seized the Canal almost effortlessly. In Southern Sudan, the stretched Egyptian forces, barely adequate for anti-guerrilla operations, were incapable of standing up to the British force. Politically, however, it was more mixed. Both the United States and Soviet Union condemned the invasion, as well as the UN, and the British and French were pressured into a withdrawal from the Canal. Canaan managed to retain control over the Sinai after the brief war, and Southern Sudan gained independence as "Equatoria", headed by Mayen. Nasser would privately comment that it was "the best possible outcome", having seized the Canal, retained Arab Sudan, and "wiped [his] hands" of the troublesome and underdeveloped South. As it turned out, the South would shortly collapse into violence between the Dinka and Nuer peoples[38]. In the Arab world, Nasser was now seen as a hero for standing up to the West, and it is now known that his repulsion of the French and British greatly strengthened the morale of the ongoing Algerian National Liberation Front (FLN). Abroad and at home, Nasser was strong.

    [34] In OTL, this wasn't a particularly large mutiny, and quickly disintegrated into little more than banditry. ITTL though, because of harsher treatment, it becomes a larger movement.

    [35] Historically, al-Azhari was pro-union between Sudan and Egypt, but changed his tune when faced with significant opposition to this idea, partly from the South. ITTL, he doesn't really care what the mutinous South wants, and calls in Egypt.

    [36] This was a real movement in OTL, although the flag I made and attached is not. Although it was a very small movement, its membership gave it influence beyond proportion. Nevertheless, events ITTL increase its support, making it a real threat to Nashashibi's power.

    [37] "Israel" is clearly a name that highlights the Jewish aspect of the Hebrew state. "Canaan" is more religiously neutral, and favoured by the Canaanites, who had quite a fetish for anything related to the Ancient Middle East.

    [38] Oh yeah, you guessed it. This is gonna get bad.

    P.S. attached is the flag of the "State of Canaan". It incorporates the Star of Shumash, an ancient Middle Eastern symbol.

    backgroundcanaan.jpg
     
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    Chapter 13b: Arab Unity, Iranian Issues - The Middle East (1950s)
  • A New World: Blood on the Sands (pt.2)

    In the aftermath of the Suez Crisis, Nasser found himself in a prime position to exploit the instability of neighbouring Arab states. The leadership of Syria were becoming increasingly concerned at the threat of a takeover by Khalid Bakdash's Syrian Communist Party. Army Chief of Staff Afif al-Bizri was known to be a prominent supporter of the Communists, raising the spectre of a military takeover. The ruling Ba'ath Party was increasingly losing votes to other parties (Syria had been democratic since the 1954 overthrow of Adib al-Shishakli's military government), and was becoming disillusioned with the multi-party system. Meeting with President Shukri al-Quwatli and Prime Minister Khaled al-Azem of Syria, Nasser pressured the Syrian delegation to remove Communists from their government, only agreeing to a merger between Syria and Egypt after the Syrians insisted that a total unification would be the only way to prevent a Communist coup. Nasser accepted, but on the conditions of the abolition of political parties (as was the precedent in Egypt), a plebiscite, and the withdrawal of the army from politics.

    In February 1958, Egypt and Syria were united as the United Arab Republic. Nasser was the President of the new nation. He established a 600-seat parliament, with 400 delegates from Egypt-Sudan and 200 from Syria. Each of the two provinces had two Vice-Presidents, who answered to Nasser himself. This system was to be hastily re-organised after the inclusion of Iraq.

    The UAR was a major threat to the Hashemite monarchies of Iraq and Jordan. As a response to this threat, King Abdullah of Jordan [39] and King Faisal II of Iraq united their countries as the Arab Federation (in reality a Confederation), with Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri as-Said as Premier. Both nations had been members of the Central Treaty Organisation since 1955, and were staunch allies of the Western powers, particularly Britain and the United States. But as-Said put too much faith in the Sunni military corps in Iraq. Federation troops were ordered to the frontier with the UAR. Their general, Abd al-Karim Qasim, took advantage of the opportunity to overthrow the monarchy, murdering as-Said, King Faisal and the entire Iraqi branch of the Hashemites. The Arab Federation was dissolved, and Jordan and Iraq were again separated.

    Although the Iraqi coup professed adherence to pan-Arabist ideology, Qasim began to rule as an autocrat, relying on a balancing act between the pan-Arabists and the Communists to remain in power. This strategy wasn't sustainable in the long-run, however. The Soviets mediated talks between Nasser and the Iraqi Communist Party. The Iraqi Communist Party was dominated by ethnic Kurds from the North of the country, and there was a significant faction in the Party that wanted to unify Iraqi Kurdistan with the ROKu. Nasser was fully aware of the pan-Arab opposition, and a settlement with the Iraqi Communist Party would eliminate the main opposition to pan-Arab Republicanism in Iraq. In October 1958, Qasim was shot dead in a Baghdad suburb by Kurdish members of the ICP. The Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister, Col. Abdul Salam Arif entered immediately into negotiations with Nasser for Iraqi incorporation into the UAR, which became final in early 1959. Utilising plausible deniability and appealing to rhetoric about self-determination, Nasser allowed local plebiscites in overwhelmingly Kurdish areas, which inevitably voted for union with the Republic of Kurdistan. Iraqi Kurdistan and the town of al-Hasakah in Syria joined the ROKu.

    Meanwhile, Lebanon was undergoing crisis. In June 1958, Lebanese President Camille Chamoun sought to illegally gain another term in office, which provoked Nasserist opposition against his rule from Lebanese Muslims and the Sunni Prime Minister Rashid Karami. Small-scale fighting occurred in Northern Lebanon and Mount Lebanon. Fuad Chehab, commander of the army, refused to intervene with the military, so the government was supported by militias from the Lebanese wing of the Syrian Social Nationalist Party (SSNP). Chamoun requested intervention from the United States, which intervened by sending a force of 8,000 U.S. Marines into Beirut. A government of national unity was formed, headed by Gen. Chehab. The Soviet Union vocally opposed U.S. intervention, and the UAR and Soviet Union were pushed closer together.

    In Iran, democracy was undermined. The late 1940s had been a period of political crisis, with the murders of Abdol-Hossein Hazhir and Ahmad Kasravi by Feda'ian Islam assassin Sayed Hossein Emami; and the attempts on the lives of journalist Mohammad Masoud [40] (who took refuge in Azerbaijan) and the Shah himself. After the assassination attempt, the Shah increased his involvement in government, attributed by historians as motivated by paranoia and feelings of vulnerability. The Shah established the Iranian Constituent Assembly in order to amend the Constitution and expand his legal powers. He also established the Iranian Senate, which was half composed of the Shah's loyal supporters. Amongst many liberals, leftists and clergy, this movement towards royal absolutism was worrying, and the National Front was formed under Mohammad Mossadegh. The National Front managed to achieve a majority in the Majlis, appointing Ayatollah Abol-Qassem Kashani as Speaker. On March 7, 1951, Prime Minister Ali Razmara was killed by another Feda'ian, Khalil Tahmasebi. Hossein Ala' replaced Razmara, but in elections was easily ousted by Mossadegh. As Mossadegh stepped into the position of Prime Minister, he was making powerful enemies. Palpable tension existed between the Pahlavi Shah and Mossadegh, who was closely related to the former Qajar Dynasty (privately, the Shah is rumoured to have referred to Mossadegh as "that Qajar dog"), which was deposed by the Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi's father, Reza Shah. Within the National Front, Mossadegh's liberal faction continued to butt heads with the clergy (led by Ayatollah Kashani) and their Feda'ian henchmen. In October 1951, nevertheless, their was a near-unanimous vote in the Majlis to nationalise the oil industry. Feda'ian mobs attacked individuals that disagreed with nationalisation, angering Mossadegh, who desired stability for Iran. The Mossadegh government was vigorously opposed by the British, who feared for their single largest overseas asset, the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company (AIOC). The Americans, by contrast, were initially supportive. The Dewey Administration was lukewarm to British imperialism, seeing it as a public-relations liability. Under the Eisenhower Administration, however, a different current of Republican foreign policy, galvanised by US experience in China, felt it necessary to preserve the strength of any Western state, imperial or otherwise. Sensing the risk of wholesale nationalisation, Mossadegh attempted to negotiate terms in regards to oil shares, proposing to Soviet and British delegates the reduction of their shares to 20% and 25% respectively, taking inspiration from the American share adjustments with the Venezuelan (Romulo Gallegos/Creole Petroleum compromise) and Saudi governments (ARAMCO compromise). Both the British and the Soviets steadfastly rejected the deal. Nevertheless, the Iranians nationalised the oil industry, provoking the Abadan Crisis. The Abadan Crisis refers to the blockade of Iranian oil exports between 1951 and 1954, in opposition to the nationalisation. The Crisis pressurised the Iranian government, and was maintained until the coup that ousted Mossadegh. By 1953, the religious faction in the Majlis had also turned against Mossadegh, completely aligning themselves with the Shah. The Communist Tudeh Party, who claimed to be pro-Mossadegh, were also increasingly infiltrating the military, which spooked the Eisenhower government. Despite Mossadegh's distaste for Tudeh, he began to rely upon them increasingly as his other support bases peeled away. By mid-1953, the Prime Minister was coming under both literal and metaphorical fire for the economic crisis, and a (clearly falsified) referendum to dissolve the Majlis and give the PM the power to enact laws passed with 99.9%. The Shah, stripped of his powers, allied himself with the CIA and MI6, who performed a coup (timed to preempt a possible Soviet-packed Communist coup), killing Mossadegh and installing General Zahedi as the new Prime Minister. Double agents who had infiltrated Tudeh faked an attempted Communist counter-coup, which was then ferociously put down by Zahedi, breaking the effective power of the Tudeh Party. The Shah was gradually given absolutist powers over the following years, which eventually culminated in the overthrow of the Shah and the institution of the Islamic People's Republic by the People's Mujahedin of Iran years later.

    [39] ITTL, the lack of Palestinian exodus after 1948 butterflied away King Abdullah's assassination, so he is still in power.

    [40]Mohamed Masoud was killed IOTL, but ITTL he promotes anti-Shahist views with the support of his Soviet hosts in the APG.
     
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    Chapter 14: The Battle for Trieste - Yugoslavia (1940s)
  • "It will do for the moment": Yugoslavia, 1940s.

    Hey guys, just wanted to flick the clock back a little here and post what I've got on Yugoslavia so far. Enjoy:

    No other nation had done it. Redemption. A truly indigenous liberation. In all the other nations of Europe, the Nazi yoke had been lifted by a foreign power, be it Russia, Britain or the Americans. But the Yugoslavs had freed their own soil through their own defiance. Tito's Partisans had broken free from their shackles and proceeded to beat the oppressor with their own chains.

    As the end of the war in Europe approached, the victors were scrambling for the spoils of victory. On 1st May 1945, the Yugoslav 4th Army arrived in the historic city of Trieste (or Trst, as the Yugoslavs called it). As the Yugoslavs entered the city from the East, 2nd Division New Zealand troops under the command of the British 8th Army entered from the West. As the Yugoslav troops entered the town, 2,500 anti-fascist partisans rose up against the remaining German troops. Although the remaining 4,000 German troops were capable of putting down the local resistance, they were supported by the heavily-armed Yugoslav 4th Army, and instead the Germans remained in their fortifications, including Castle San Giusto and Castle Miramare. Although at first stubbornly against surrender, the local SS commanders eventually surrendered to the New Zealand forces, aware of Yugoslav impatience (the Yugoslav troops had already stormed several buildings, including the Tribunale, that were occupied by German troops).

    Immediately, the occupying forces began to develop separate administrative organs in Trieste. The Yugoslavs formed the Liberation Front, a Communist and Slav-dominated organisation headed by Franc Štoka. The Liberation Front was opposed by the Venezia Giulia CLN, an Italian anti-fascist administration who membership was politically diverse. Support for the Front came from many sources, particularly trade strongholds such as the ship-building town of Montfalcone and groups such as the 'Anti-Fascist Women' organisation. Local Slovenes were ecstatic about the Yugoslav occupation. In one notable demonstration, the long-persecuted local Slovenes proclaimed "Trst je Naš!" ("Trieste is Ours!"). By contrast, the Italian Triestini were less enthusiastic about the presence of "uncultured" and "barbaric" Slavs. Instead, the young, bikini-clad Italian women of Trieste proved quite popular amongst New Zealand soldiers, which greatly contributed to the sympathy of the New Zealanders for the Italian Triestini.

    "Another holdout of Germans. Really not too fussed about this one, t'be honest. Damn Yugos will be kicking up a storm as usual", Private Wilson thought to himself as he accompanied his section into the town square. The rest of the platoon would arrive soon. His C.O. and their local interpreter, an Italian, approached a section of Yugoslavs that blocked their path. The Yugoslav officer, a large man, seemed overbearing and rude. The interpreter turned to the C.O., Corporal Smith and recounted the Yugoslav's speech to him. "Oh so now you want to go fight? You spend all your time hiding in your tanks and are too scared to do anything. We have liberated this city, not you. Now go back to your base and fuck some Italian whores, Engleska pička...". Although they had only been in the city for about a week, the New Zealanders had become very familiar with the extensive lexicon of Yugoslav curse words, and Corporal Smith, who had always had a prickly sense of honour, knew exactly what that meant. The Corporal launched a vicious suckerpunch at the Yugoslav officer, but it failed to knock him off his feet. Instead, the Yugoslav, showing a strength disproportionate even for his large size (he must've been 6"1 and 100kg), delivered a deep hook to the Corporal's gut. The Corporal quickly folded over, and the Yugoslav grabbed him by his collar and his belt buckle, slamming him headfirst into a nearby stone wall, killing the Corporal. Red blood glistened on white stone. "you fucking bastards!" shrieked Pvt.O'Malley, who drew his pistol. Immediately, the Yugoslavs raised their rifles and fired almost in unison. A bullet tore into O'Malley's shoulder, quickly followed by a fatal wound to the chest. Stevenson and Jones were also put down quickly. Wilson ran, desperately hurrying to get to the rest of the platoon. Surely the heard the gunshots. Unintelligible shouts filled the air behind him, and a bullet grazed his hip. Wilson just kept running.

    Wilson's platoon was retreating to the beach. A few hours earlier, what should've been a routine rat hunt turned Trieste into a battlezone. The rest of the platoon had tried to attack the Corporal's murderers, but they were quickly repulsed by rapid Yugoslav reinforcements. It seemed that the Yugoslav Maj. Gen. Dušan Kveder had ordered a full-scale attack against the New Zealand forces. Kiwi forces were holed up in Castle Miramare, and had been cut off by the Yugoslavs. The British command told the New Zealanders to regroup on the beach, where they could be evacuated if absolutely necessary. Things weren't looking great. The 28th Maori Battalion had been sent in to push back the Yugoslavs. Despite giving a good showing compared to the other New Zealand troops, they hadn't proven a match for the Yugoslavs. Wilson had never seen anything like it. The Maoris could fight as good as anybody, and although they had given the odd Yugoslav a good thrashing, the commies could fight just as well, and they were good with their knives too. It seemed that in any given engagement between equally-sized Maori and Yugoslav forces, it could go either way. It seemed unnatural, given that through the whole North Africa and Italian campaigns, the Maoris had proven reliably effective shock troops. Now, he saw small groups of them come onto the beach, a stoic yet sad look on their face. The face of a warrior tasting his first defeat. At that moment, a Yugoslav T-34 erupted onto the beach...
    [41]

    As the Yugoslavs evicted the New Zealanders from the city centre, the British moved their offshore destroyer closer to the city, and sent a squadron of low-level bombers to screen the New Zealand retreat/regroup. although several 2 of the planes were shot down by Yugoslav mobile AA fire, the tanks that had broken onto the beach were disabled. British command entered into frantic talks with the local Yugoslav commander. The Yugoslavs claimed they had been attacked by New Zealand forces, whilst the British claimed that the Yugoslavs opened fire on them. Historical sources are inconclusive as to what really occurred, given the existence of incompatible accounts from New Zealand and Yugoslav eyewitnesses. What historians do know is that Churchill proposed a large-scale attack to force the Yugoslavs out, but this was seen as politically disastrous by the American leadership. President Wallace pushed Churchill to seek a compromise, fearful of antagonising the Soviets and undermining any peaceful post-war order.

    Almost simultaneously as the incident at Trieste, Yugoslav troops (also of the 4th Army) entered Klagenfurt (in Austrian Carinthia) on midday of the 8th May 1945. 3 hours earlier, British troops had entered the Northern suburbs of the city. The streets were choked with refugees of all nationalities, fascist collaborators and sympathisers fleeing from the Russians and Yugoslavs. Slovene Home Guards, Ustashe and local Austrian Nazis pushed through the streets towards the British lines, desperate to surrender to the Western Allies. A standoff ensued between Yugoslav and British forces. The Yugoslavs claimed Klagenfurt, and the rest of Carinthia, as a rightful part of Slovenia, and thus Yugoslavia. They also demanded that the British relinquish those collaborators that surrendered to the British. The British, unwilling to give them up (knowing that they wouldn't get a fair trial), refused. They also countered the Yugoslavs by noting that Klagenfurt was specified as part of the British occupation zone in Austria.

    As tensions increased in Trieste and Klagenfurt, the British, Americans, Yugoslavs and Soviets entered into tense negotiations. In the end, and much to the chagrin of the British, it was decided that the Yugoslavs would get Trieste (and Pula, which was returned in 1947) and part of Carinthia, encompassing those areas South of the Drava River[42]. The Yugoslavs were happy with this compromise.

    With their patrons gone, the Venezia Giulia CLN was banned. They subsequently went underground, printing anti-Slav leaflets. They remained popular with the local Italian population, despite the efforts of the government. CLN militias were disarmed, and a few local "fascists" were deported by the State Security Administration (UDBA), after being rounded up by the 'People's Defence' (Guardia del Popolo/Narodni Zašciti) militia. Local German troops were summarily executed. Trst was incorporated into Yugoslavia as an autonomous republic, technically part of Slovenia (with the same relationship Vojvodina had to Serbia), but administered separately by Štoka.

    Elsewhere, Yugoslav expansion was more peaceful and diplomatically-based. Albania, like Yugoslavia, had been liberated by Communist partisans, but with more than a little help from Tito's partisans themselves. The Albanian political leadership was acutely aware of the need for strong allies, and strengthened ties with the Soviet Union in a September 1945 treaty which exchanged Soviet grain and technical advice in oil and mineral extraction for Albanian tobacco, copper ore, oil and preserves. Despite this major trade agreement with the Soviets, a February 1946 plenum called for a "close alliance between Albania and Yugoslavia", and both Albanians and Yugoslavs seemed largely enthusiastic about union between the two countries. By December, plans had been made for cooperation between the two nations, utilising coordinated economic plans, common companies, customs unification, a revaluation of the lek in terms of dinar, the unification of armies and eventually the incorporation of Albania into the Yugoslav federal structure.

    By 1947, the Yugoslavs and Albanians had established joint industries in several primary fields and the Yugoslavs were providing Albania with a financial subsidy equivalent to 10% of their total annual income. The Yugoslavs were also assisting in the construction of a coast guard base on Sazani Island, off the Albanian coast[43]. Despite this, the Yugoslavs refused to assist the developing of manufacturing industries, irritating some Albanian leaders, such as Enver Hoxha, who saw it as a ploy to force Albania into economic dependence on Yugoslavia.

    Meanwhile, Tito was entering into negotiations with Bulgarian leader Georgi Dimitrov to reach an agreement on the creation of a Communist Balkan Federation. Whilst the Bled Agreement was reached on the 1st August 1947, which paved the way for the unification of the two countries, the unification process fell victim to Stalin's power-lust. The veteran Kremlin puppetmaster back in Moscow was furious he hadn't been consulted. Whilst the Bulgarians quickly fell in line, prominent Yugoslav politicians Edvard Kardelj and Milovan Djilas were summoned to Moscow. By the end of the trip, they were convinced that Yugoslav-Soviet relations had reached a fundamental impasse.

    After Kardelj and Djilas' return from Moscow, efforts to incorporate Albania into Yugoslavia were hastened. In November of 1947, the Yugoslavs accused prominent anti-Yugoslav Albanian politican Nako Spiro of attempting to "sabotage the economic relationship between Yugoslavia and Albania". In despair, Spiro committed suicide. This left the pro-Yugoslav faction very powerful in the Albanian Central Committee. Whilst Hoxha was still nominally in charge of the country, the faction of Koçi Xoxe was becoming increasingly powerful, and began to purge the Central Committee of "bourgeois-nationalist" opposition. In January 1948, Stalin strangely informed the Yugoslavs that they "can swallow what they want" regarding Albania, a seeming about-turn on his previous position. In February, Stalin informed Hoxha that he was sending a Lieutenant-General to oversee the reorganisation of the Albanian army, to ease coordination with the Yugoslav Army.

    Early 1948 saw the final consolidation of Yugoslav control over Albania. In February, a Central Committee meeting called by Xoxe resulted in the expulsion of Mahmet Shehu and other anti-unionists. In April, Xoxe puts forward a formal proposal for the incorporation of Albania into Yugoslavia. Hoxha, aware of increasing tension between the Yugoslavs and the Soviets, refuses the proposal. By the end of May, Hoxha was dead, assassinated by Xoxaist members of the Sigurimi (the state security apparatus)[44]. The coming June saw the Central Committee accept the proposal for unification with Yugoslavia. By July, Albania was admitted as the Seventh Yugoslav Republic. Although there was some initial unrest (the Serbs felt that the Albanians got two votes, including Kosovo, whilst they only got one), a solution was reached with the incorporation of Kosovo into Albania proper and the annexation of Metohija by the Serbian SFR. The Soviets immediately broke relations with the Yugoslavs, denouncing them as 'Trotskyists' who were perverting the cause of the revolution, as well as 'bourgeois nationalists'. The Soviets immediately began to amass tanks on the border, and the Hungarian Army was rapidly expanded from 2 divisions to 15. Bulgarian and Hungarian troops probed Yugoslav defences, but were quickly repelled by steadfast Yugoslav resistance, which tactfully refused to follow them into their home territory, providing a pretext for Soviet intervention. Nevertheless, Tito was secretly worried about the chain of steel and turrets that was being strung across the Northern and Eastern borders...[45]

    [41]This incident didn't happen OTL, but there were several close-run incidents between the New Zealanders and Yugoslavs in Trieste. As one person I talked to (whose father was in the NZ forces at Trieste) put it: "they didn't trust the Yugoslavs as far as they could throw them". It was funny to see his reaction when I informed him of my Yugoslav heritage :p

    [42]This doesn't include Klagenfurt, but it does include Villach, the second largest city in Carinthia. Although Klagenfurt is a historic city for Slovenes, it is (and was by then anyway) overwhelmingly Austrian-German in population.

    [43]IOTL, this base was built by the Soviets, and was a submarine base, built to threaten the US 6th Fleet, based in Napoli. ITTL, it is built to prevent smuggling between Italy and Albania.

    [44]Obviously, this did not happen IOTL either. But I do think it was very possible.

    [45]Although it has been really difficult for me to find information on this, I found some sources that mentioned Hungarian mobilisation, and I was told stories about my great-uncles time in the UDBA, including that there were several hushed-up incidents where the Bulgarians deliberately crossed the border to gauge the Yugoslav response. The Yugoslavs won decisively every time.
     
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    Chapter 15a: Repentence - Eastern Europe (1950s)
  • A New World (1950s): Repentance (Pt.1)

    As the Cold War developed into maturity, the Eastern Bloc was profoundly transformed by the death of the tyrannical dictator who held two continents at his mercy. Josef Vissarionovich Stalin's iron-fisted reign ended in 1953, when a stroke and associated hemorrhaging took his life. Recently declassified Soviet documents of the period (and renewed inspection of medical records and modern toxicological knowledge) suggest that Stalin was poisoned with a strong dose of warfarin, most likely by Lavrentiy Beria, chief of the security apparatus [46]. The death of Stalin led to a dramatic change in life in Eastern Europe, driven by the De-stalinisation policies of Nikita Khrushchev, who climbed to power atop the carcass of Beria in 1955. But to fully understand the De-stalinisation process, we have to understand the developments in Eastern Europe immediately prior, in the time of High Stalinism.

    In Poland, the High Stalinist period was characterised by an unprecedented level of surveillance and oppression. Upon Stalin's death, the Polish Secret Police had swelled to 32,000 agents. At the peak of the repression, there was one Urząd Bezpieczeństwa (Office of Public Security) agent for every 800 Poles. Although an official amnesty was extended to anti-Communist resistance fighters, unofficially they were persecuted, subject to unjustified arrest and harassment. In October 1950, a mass arrest was conducted, "Operation K", where 5,000 people were arrested in one night. In the year of 1952, over 21,000 civilians were arrested. In the second half of 1952, there were 49,500 political prisoners in Polish prisons.

    Whilst the high levels of adherence to the Catholic church in Poland necessitated a somewhat lenient attitude to religion by the Communist authorities, the intellectual sphere was exempt from such mercy. By contrast, the peasantry avoided wholesale collectivisation and the existence of some private enterprise at the village level was preserved, thanks to the efforts of anti-Stalinists within the ranks of the PZPR.

    The death of Stalin saw a period of relative liberalisation in Poland. The defections of Jozef Swiatlo and Anatol Fejgin led to revelations on the true extent of abuses by the UB, forcing the Communist government to abolish the office in December of 1954 to contain public outrage. Władysław Gomułka and his associates were released from confinement, censorship was slightly relaxed and political discussion groups formed all over the country.

    Emboldened by political liberalisation, metalworkers in the Polish city of Poznań demonstrated against the raising of taxes on 'udarniki', or "most productive workers". These mass uprisings were suppressed by Polish Army forces led by General Stanisław Popławski, which violently dispersed the crowd under authorisation of Marshal of Poland Konstanty Rokossowski. Although successful in stopping the immediate protest, the death of Bolesław Bierut, the Stalinist leader of Poland, in suspicious circumstances in Moscow allowed public disaffection to manifest itself in the Polish October of 1956, where monuments to the Red Army and portraits of Rokossowski were attacked and defaced. Mass public demonstrations created a crisis for the Polish leadership. Unlike in Poznań, the protesters were relatively moderate with their demands, which several Polish social historians have noted was likely the reason that the October protests were not dispersed by force. Instead, Edward Ochab (Bierut's successor) appointed Gomułka for First Secretary of the Party (he soon after became Chairman of the Central Committee, the new collective Head of State after Bierut's death). Whilst Gomułka enjoyed widespread popularity in Poland, he was viewed with suspicion by the Soviets. A high-level delegation led by Khrushchev, and including Kaganovich, Molotov and other high-ranking Soviet politicians travelled to Poland and entered into negotiations with the Poles. Although initially fairly hardline, the Soviet delegation proved open to compromise, and the Polish Communists' negotiation of terms (which essentially amounted to autonomy and full self-governance) legitimised the ideology and party in the eyes of many ordinary Poles. Gomułka's Communists ensured the Soviets that all treaties between Poland and the Soviet Union would remain, and that they would stay loyal to the Warsaw Pact. Unsuccessful in convincing Khrushchev to invade Poland, Rokossowski left Poland and lived in the USSR for the rest of his life. By peaceful protest, Poland had transformed itself from a puppet state to a client state, becoming an assertive and self-respecting member of the brotherhood of socialist nations.[47]

    In Czechoslovakia, the local Communists essentially ignored the post-Stalin social thaw which characterised the rest of the Eastern European states. The Stalinist-era regime had persecuted "dissident" elements of society, including the Catholic Church, as well as taking total control of education and economic activity. Even low-level private enterprise was outlawed. In March 1953, Klement Gottwald, Stalin's lackey in Czechoslovakia, died of a burst artery (although his poor health had been aggravated by syphilis and alcoholism). Antonín Zápotocký, a delegate of the party's left wing, replaced him, although he was forced to concede more and more authority to neo-Stalinist Antonín Novotný, who politically outflanked him. Nevertheless, Zápotocký remained in office until his death in 1957, where Novotný officially gained control over Czechoslovakia. In 1958, the XI KSČ Party Congress formalised the continuation of Stalinist policies. The only notable exception to the economic and innovative stagnation in Czechoslovakia in this period was the development of the Škorpion, a cheap submachine gun which was to become one of Czechoslovakia's main exports, establishing Czechoslovakia's tradition of arms sales in the developing world. Whilst historians have debated in recent years Khrushchev's apparent double-standard in regards to Stalinism, the current prevailing thought is that Khrushchev tolerated stricter social controls by Communist leaders in Czechoslovakia and East Germany due to their physical proximity to the West. As Czech historian Jan Mačarek pointed out, "the other nations of the Eastern Bloc had the luxury of a degree of separation from the West. It was necessary in those times that the Czechs and Socialist Germans be the immovable brick-wall of the Socialist Sphere, a march of sorts, which we fortunately are exempt from given the fundamental change in the geography of modern power dynamics". [48]

    The Finnish situation was essentially the inverse of the Czechoslovakian. Khrushchev had little to no qualms with the moderate and competent Finnish Communists, who had gotten through the High Stalinist period through lip service. Kuusinen's presence in Finland had always been comforting for Stalin, and his comparative liberalism (and enthusiasm for criticisms of Stalinist oppression, calling it "a blight on the Red flag") satisfied Khrushchev. Both Aaltonen and Kuusinen stayed in power through the 1950s.

    Perhaps the most notable success story of De-Stalinisation was the People's Republic of Bulgaria. Upon Georgi Dimitrov's death in 1949, Bulgaria entered into a short period of collective leadership, with Vulko Chervenkov as General Secretary of the Communist Party and Vasil Kolarov as Prime Minister. Kolarov's death in 1950 allowed Chervenkov to fuse the two most powerful offices in Bulgaria with full Soviet approval. As unchallenged master of Bulgaria, Chervenkov instituted a policy of rapid and intensive collectivisation, along with his own series of purges. This "little Stalin" of Bulgaria crushed peasant rebellions by force and set up labour camps. At their peak, these camps housed 100,000 Bulgarians. Chervenkov's purges of the party (in the name of party "discipline") expelled a fifth of all members. Intimidation and supply discrimination began to be utilised by the government to enforce collectivisation. Trade with the West became virtually non-existent, with 90% of Bulgarian trade involving partnership with the USSR. Collectivisation was comparatively more successful in Bulgaria than many other Eastern European nations, and there was no decrease (nor significant increase) in agricultural production, although Chervenkov's Stalinist policies greatly increased industrial output (which unfortunately wasn't reflected in living standards).

    After the death of Stalin, Chervenkov had little in the way of a domestic powerbase to ensure his power.Reliant on Stalin's patronage for his position, Chervenkov was little more than the "Sofia Satrap". In 1954, Chervenkov was deposed as Party Secretary (with Moscow's approval) by 43-year-old Todor Zhivkov. Two years later, Chervenkov was replaced as Prime Minister by Anton Yugov. Under Zhivkov's guidance, Bulgaria developed from a backwater to one of the most extensive welfare states in the Eastern Bloc. Within a few years, real wages increased by 75%, co-inciding with a better, more varied diet (from stable crops to vegetables, fruits and meat as well) for Bulgarians, universal access to healthcare and the introduction of Eastern Europe's first agricultural pension and welfare scheme.

    Mystifyingly, despite the upheavals and dramatic change in many of the Eastern European states, Hungary was the only example which spilt over into violence. Under Matyas Rákosi's control, Hungary had been one of the most repressive states in the Bloc. American journalist John Gunther said of Rákosi: "[he is] the most malevolent character I ever met in my political life". Paying lip service to the Dictatorship of the Proletariat, in reality Rákosi developed a party aristocracy, characterised by the confiscation of wealth from the common people. From 1950-1952, the Hungarian Secret Police (AVH) relocated thousands of Hungarians to vacate their property for party members. In a single year, more than 26,000 were forcibly expelled from Budapest. Deportees were forced onto collective farms. Deaths from malnutrition and exhaustion weren't uncommon. Religious leaders were persecuted to an even harsher extent than in Czechoslovakia. Even without the disruption of collectivisation, Hungary was experiencing economic difficulties. Hungary was required to pay $300 million to the Soviet Union, Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia in war reparations, as well as supporting Soviet garrisons in the country. Hungary saw one of the highest rates of hyperinflation in history, surpassing even that of post-WWI Germany. Poorly-implemented Five-Year Plans led to a 18% fall in real industrial wages between 1949 and 1952. Collectivisation caused a significant fall in agricultural output and a consequent increase in food shortages, contributing to the problems of malnutrition in High Stalinist Hungary.

    Shortly after the death of Stalin, Imre Nagy replaced Rákosi as Prime Minister. Despite Imre Nagy's surpassing of Rákosi in theoretical power, Rákosi still had strong links in the security services and the army and in 1955 attempted to take power in a coup, with the assistance of the AVH and units of the Hungarian Army. The military was split between the pro-Nagy and pro-Rakosi factions. Whilst Rákosi had the support of several high-ranking army officers, mutinies were widespread, and the slight majority of the newer units (there had been rapid expansion of the Hungarian Army due to the tension between Tito and Stalin) sided with the Nagy government. The Hungarian Air Force also sided with the Nagy government. Whilst at first leaning towards support of Rákosi and concerned by Nagy's intentions, the Soviets entered into Polish-style talks with Nagy. Concerned at the Rákosi forces' disproportionate control of artillery and tanks, Nagy promised the Soviets that he would remain inside the Warsaw Pact if they prevented the Rákosi forces from overthrowing the new anti-Stalinist regime. The Soviet agreed. Whilst Soviet troops had been previously ordered to stay in their barracks and only act in self-defence, Soviet tanks rolled into Budapest only an hour after a column of Rákosi-ist tanks had broken through barricades erected by Nagyist troops and local armed civilians. The Soviet presence proved decisive, with most of Rákosi's forces surrendering immediately to Soviet forces, without offering any resistance. Nevertheless, hundreds of civilians were killed(and between four and six thousand wounded), along with a few dozen Nagyist military casualties in chaotic street-fighting. Rákosi was captured and exiled to Kazakhstan, where he managed a grocery store until his retirement. The Soviet presence in Hungary became significantly more popular, and Soviet support for liberalised Communist and anti-Stalinist movements seemed sincere and altruistic, proving a major public relations coup for the superpower. [49]

    [46] Same cause as OTL. Although it hasn't been conclusively proven that Stalin was poisoned, the particular pattern of hemorrhaging experienced by Stalin is unusual for a natural stroke, but are consistent with warfarin. Also, Beria bragged to other Central Committee members of killing Stalin. He could have been talking shit, but poisoning Stalin seems within his capabilities, and I highly doubt Tito did it. Beria would have a far better chance.

    [47] All of this Polish stuff essentially happened as OTL.

    [48] Jan is a fictional character that I've made up to add convenient historiography into the universe of 'Stars and Sickles'.

    [49] So the Soviets are pulled into supporting the Nagy movement, given that it has repudiated the whole "Austria-style neutral" goal that it had for pragmatic purposes. IOTL, Soviet intervention in Hungary ruined the Soviets' reputation with most European Communists, as they appeared to be imposing an unpopular system on a populace. This splintering caused the genesis of movements such as Eurocommunism. Whilst Western Communists will still have a different outlook than Eastern European Communists, this will be more cultural than oppositional/disassociative than in OTL.

    ALSO: Wow, its been a month since the last post! I've just started university, so I've been pretty busy, and I had to do a lot of pretty mundane research for this post. I am going to do another post on Greece, the Soviet Union and East Germany. And I already have a detailed outline of a near-future update on Cuba! I'll try to post when I can, but obviously my education has to take precedent. I would like to know if there's anything you readers are really desperate to know about with this TL though! :)
     
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    Chapter 15b: Repentence II - Eastern Europe (1950s)
  • A New World (1950s): Repentance (Pt.2)

    In the Popular Republic of Greece, the transition between a Stalinist and Khrushchevian state was relatively easy. The Stalinist General Secretary of the KKE, Nikos Zachariadis, was ousted from power by the Chairman of the Council of Ministers Alexandros Svolos, a prominent Greek expert in constitutional law and a committed liberal socialist. Nikos Ploumpidis was rehabilitated by the KKE and ascended to the post of Finance Minister, whilst Nikos Beloyannis [50] became Minister of Justice and Charilaos Florakis (who would lead Greece during the Turkish Emergency) became Minister of Labour. The notable exception to the anti-Stalinist current was Aris Velouchiotis, the leader of the ELAS guerrillas in WWII and the Greek Civil War, who had stayed loyal to Stalin during the Tito-Stalin split despite Tito's generous supply of arms and ammunition to the Greek Communists. It was politically untenable for Svolos to openly remove Velouchiotis from power, given his popularity as a war hero. Instead, Svolos appealed to the ordinary Greek's patriotic idealisation of Velouchiotis by installing him as Head of State (although, given the Head of State's power of vetoing laws passed by the Central Committee, a legal proviso was inserted into the new Greek Constitution of 1957 which allowed laws with 80% approval from the legislature to pass without the HoS's approval). Svolos allowed Velouchiotis to retain his post as Minister of Defence, but increasingly diverted funds away from the Army towards the intelligence services, who would form the Special Forces contingent of the Greek 'military'. Thus Svolos prevented Velouchiotis from being able to overthrow his government in future.

    During this period, Greece experienced an expansion of the navy, primarily in relatively small ships and submarines, intended to intercept any possible sabotage attempts. This expansion was largely a response forced upon the Greeks by Soviet pressure after the Novorossiysk Incident. There was also a programme of construction of military bases, largely used (and paid for) by the Soviets, including submarine pens on Corfu and a large airbase on Rhodes (which would be the base of the Soviet air squadrons during the bombardment of Ankara). Svolos' tenure was remembered positively by future generations, especially the relative social liberalisation.

    Romania in the 1950s experienced a major fissure in the Communist Party, taking place both within and apart from the greater de-Stalinisation movement. The Party was divided into 3 camps: the "Muscovites" (Communists who spent WWII in the USSR) led by Ana Pauker and Vasile Luca; the "Prison Communists", followers of Gheorghe Gheorghiu-Dej (who spent most of WWII in the Romanian prison system) and the "Secretariat Communists", represented by Lucrețiu Pătrășcanu, a leading ideologue and Marxist intellectual.

    Until 1952, Romania was led by Petru Groza (the so-called "red bourgeois", due to his wealthy origins). Groza resigned in 1952 (and would die in 1958 from complications following a stomach operation) and was succeeded by Gheorghiu-Dej until 1954, when Gheorghe Apostol became the First Secretary of the PCR. During Apostol's tenure, Gheorghiu-Dej was Prime Minister. After realising that the true seat of power was the post of First Secretary, Gheorghiu-Dej had Apostol step down in the winter of 1955. Although Gheorghiu-Dej had solidified his power during the Stalinist era (primarily by taking advantage of Stalin's anti-semitism to oust Ana Pauker), his position was destabilised by the accession of Khrushchev. Gheorghiu-Dej was unable to deflect criticism for the brainwashing programs of 'Experimentul Pitești', the 're-education' experiments at Pitești Prison and the forced labour use in the Danube-Black Sea Canal project, which was suspended with Soviet pressure [51]. Pătrășcanu was installed by Khrushchev as the new leader of Romania, who continued to promote a Romanian "Communist patriotism" which gained public support (despite the occasional marginalisations of the Hungarian minority), whilst his intellectual background appealed to the intellectuals. He has since been both praised and criticised by commentators for his social-engineering campaigns (inspired by his sociological background). Pătrășcanu was particularly harsh against opposers of land-reform, which he saw as the primary factor holding Romania back from social and economic progress.

    In East Germany, the foundation was set which allowed the development of a diverse range of socialist ideological currents. Nevertheless, East Germany in 1950 was a typical Stalinist state. Although Wilhelm Pieck was President of the German Democratic Republic until 1960 (when he was succeeded by Rudolf Herrnstadt[52]), the real power laid in the First Secretary, Walter Ulbricht. In July 1950, the third SED Party Congress emphasised the expansion of heavy industry, a wave of nationalisations and the establishment of "People's Enterprises" owned by the state. 75% of the industrial sector fell into the hands of these PEs. In the period 1951-55, the first Five-Year Plan in East Germany introduced a formal system of central planning. The stresses put onto the general population caused the "Republikflucht" (Republic-flight), an exodus of East Germans into the Federal Republic of Germany. In response, Ulbricht tried to ensure a continued staunch Stalinist policy by expelling moderate and liberal socialists out of the SED. Socially, Ulbricht's regime was also autocratic. Despite nominal tolerance for the Church, in reality there was significant pressure put on clergy by the East German authorities. In response, an episcopal ban was issued on the SED.

    A combination of social and economic pressures contributed to mass emigration. In 1951, monthly emigration fluctuated between 11,500 and 17,000. By 1953, monthly emigration averaged 37,000. This emigration created a notable 'brain drain' of professionals and intelligentsia from the GDR to the FRG. In June 1953, after the death of Stalin, Malenkov's "New Course" economic policy was instituted in the GDR, with a focus on consumer, as opposed to industrial goods. Welfare programs were introduced to assist with eliminating economic hardships and financial support was made available for small businesses in the form of state loans. In September 1953, the Stalinist Ulbricht was replaced by Wilhelm Zaisser, the Minister of State Security who had been responsible for the expansion of the Stasi [53]. Without Ulbricht in power, moderate and liberal socialists were rehabilitated, leading to a more liberal Volkskammer (GDR parliament). In 1954, a Soviet delegation led by Khrushchev negotiated with Zaisser, establishing a client-state, as opposed to puppet-state relationship (as was the case with Poland). Zaisser continued to lead Germany, allowing significant humanist-socialist (led by Wolfgang Harich) and hardline (led by Erich Mielke) factions in the Volkskammer. Harich would later be notable for leading the Green Stalinist movement in the 1970s which espoused "protection of the environmental base for the assurance of the social base".

    [50] Nikos Beloyannis was a law student imprisoned during the Metaxas regime who joined Velouchiotis' resistance in the Peloponnese. Historically he was immortalised in Pablo Picasso's "The Man with the Carnation". With the military trials butterflied by the victory of ELAS in the Greek Civil War, Beloyannis has more real power, despite having less symbolic and cultural significance.

    [51] Historically, Gheorghiu-Dej used Pauker and Luca as scapegoats for the abuses under Stalinism, but an earlier marginalisation of the Muscovite Communists makes this impossible.

    [52] Herrnstadt was a member of the anti-Ulbricht wing of the SED and a close ally of Wilhelm Zaisser.

    [53] IOTL, there were plans to replace Ulbricht, but these were aborted due to the perception that the SED had to appear constant and strong after the 1953 Uprising in East Germany, which has been butterflied away ITTL, due to the SED not raising work quotas for industrial workers.
     
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    Chapter 16: Cuban Sunrise - Cuba (1950s)
  • A New World (1950s): Cuban Sunrise

    Cuban politics in the 1950s presented a dynamic and ever-changing landscape of movements and personalities, vying for control of the Caribbean island. The most notable of these competitors were Fulgencio Batista y Zaldívar, Carlos Prío Socarrás, José Antonio "Manzanita" Echeverría, Frank País and Fidel Alejandro Castro Ruz.

    Since 1948, Cuba had been governed by Carlos Prío, Partido Auténtico (PCR-A) leader. Despite a positive reputation for constitutional order and political freedom in hindsight, the Prío Administration came under increasing criticism in during the onset of the 1950s for being soft and ineffectual in the face of increasingly severe political violence and gaining a reputation for corruption (much like the Grau administration that preceded it) due to the theft and self-enrichment of some figures of government. Opposing Prío's Auténtico Party was the Ortodoxo Party and Batista's United Action coalition. During the lead-up to the elections of 1952, Batista (who had been a member of the Cuban senate in absentia since 1948) returned to compete. It quickly became apparent, however, that Batista would be unable to defeat Roberto Agramonte of the Partido Ortodoxo or Carlos Hevia of the Partido Auténtico.

    With electoral victory clearly eluding Batista's grasp, he instead turned to his established support network in the Cuban military. On March 10, 1952, Batista's collaborators seized police and military commands nationwide, as well as major radio and television stations. Having failed in his attempts to organise an opposition, Prío fled first to Mexico and then to Miami, FL. But from the onset, Prío refused to concede defeat, stating "I'll triumph by any means, even the most extreme". The Auténticos allied with Prío began to stockpile weapons smuggled into Cuba from the United States by Aureliano Sánchez Arango, Prío's Minister of Education and an amateur pilot. Whilst Arango daringly evaded Batista's authorities on several occasions and eluded a manhunt not long after the assault on the Moncada Barracks, he left behind a briefcase containing documents naming most of Prío's collaborators. Subsequently, Batista hunted down Auténtico affiliates.

    To secure his power, Batista allied (and ingratiated himself) with the wealthy landowners from whom he had longed for acceptance. These wealthy landowners exploited poor Cubans in factories and sugar plantations, enriching themselves off of the profits from exports largely destined for the United States (most of which was refined in the American Sugar Refining Company's massive refinery in Brooklyn, NY). Batista also notoriously developed ties with the American Mafia, particular Meyer Lansky and Lucky Luciano. Although pressure from the United States led to Luciano's deportation to Sicily, he nevertheless continued to profit off of Mafia-operated Cuban casinos. Lansky operated as Batista's unofficial "Minister of Gambling". By 1955, Batista had introduced legislation which granted a gaming licence to anyone investing US $1m in a hotel or US $200,000 in a nightclub, exempting venture capitalists from background checks and allowing the duty-free importation of casino furnishings. Often, Cuban contractors with the right contacts would order extra furnishings, selling them on the black market. With Batista's encouragement, the American mafia took control of the gambling, drug and prostitution rackets in Cuba, turning Havana into a mere appendage of Chicago and New York mob interests. Immense sums of money were made by Batista-allied mobsters and American multi-national corporations whilst the average Cuban family earned US $6 a week, only a third of homes had running water and the nation experienced chronic unemployment of 15-20%. By 1959, US companies were in control of 40% of Cuba's sugar, 90% of mineral concessions and mines, 80% of utilities, the entire oil industry and the vast majority of cattle ranches as well as supplying Cuba with two-thirds of it's imports. Havana also became a major den of hedonism for American tourists, inspiring Constantino Arias' famous photograph "Ugly American".

    The conduct of Batista's corrupt and repressive regime provoked a violent response from political opposition. The first major attempt at the forcible ejection of Batista's government was from Rafael Garcia Barcena's Movimiento Nacional Revolucionario (National Revolutionary Movement, MNR). Garcia was a university professor with connections to many young army officers, most of whom were former students of his. Garcia's strong nationalist but anti-Communist beliefs caused him to resent foreign dominance over the Cuban economy (the charismatic Garcia was also notable for his reliance not on ideology, but personal loyalty for support). In an operation originally set for March 8, 1953 but later postponed to April 5, MNR forces attacked Camp Columbia with the intention of seizing control of army assets and convincing officers there to join a coup against Batista. Garcia had asked Fidel Castro to join his coup, but Castro had refused, describing the coup attempt as "the most advertised action in the history of Cuba", although it is just as likely that he refused due to the "bourgeois" nature of the MNR and Castro's belief that any coup involving the military would naturally become a military coup. The MNR attack was anticipated by the local military forces, who arrested Garcia and many of his supporters on the day the coup was supposed to be launched. Garcia was tortured severely, which many believe broke his will entirely. He refrained from future political activity and sources close to him noted a drastic change in his personality, which went from confident extroversion to sullen despair.

    At 6:00AM on July 26, 1953, Fidel Castro and his brother Raúl led a force of young Ortodoxo Party rank-and-file members on an attack on Moncada Barracks in Santiago. Although meticulously planned, the attack on the barracks began poorly when Castro's forces (which approached the barracks disguised as a high-level military delegation) were discovered by soldiers at the barracks gates. The rebels retreated, and Castro was captured and imprisoned in the Presidio Modelo (Model Prison) on the Isla de Pinos. Imprisoned with 25 comrades, Castro renames his group the "26 of July Movement" (MR-26-7) and formed a school for prisoners. He was locked in solitary confinement after prisoners sung anti-Batista songs during a visit by Batista in February 1954. Meanwhile, Castro discovered from a radio announcement that his wife Mirta had taken employment at the Interior Ministry. Enraged, Castro divorced her. In many ways, Castro took his wife's employment in the Interior Ministry as a personal slight, a personal victory of Batista's that would be avenged.

    Whilst Castro was in prison, Frank País had already gained a prominent role in the anti-Batista resistance, leading the Accion Revolucionara Oriente in the Eastern 'Oriente' Province (it would later be named Accion Nacional Revolucionara after Jose "Pepito" Tey, a fellow revolutionary, recruited students from other provinces to the movement), despite being only 18 years old.

    In May 1955, considering them no longer a threat, Castro's MR-26-7 group was released from prison. However, a wave bombings and violent demonstrations in a short-lived burst of civil anger that characterised the latter half of 1955 led to a government crackdown on dissidents. The Castros moved to Mexico, befriending Argentine revolutionary Ernesto "Che" Guevara and Spaniard Alberto Bayo, the latter of which taught them the skills necessary to engage in effective guerrilla warfare. Fidel sent messages to Frank País, offering him the post of "Chief of Action and Sabotage" in Oriente Province. País accepted, marking the effective fusion of the ANR with MR-26-7.

    Whilst the leftist revolutionaries were rebuilding their position, Prío was also trying to rebuild his influence in Cuba. On August 11, 1955, Prío returned to Cuba, calling to mend fences with Grau San Martin (the Auténtico Party had effectively split into two factions, with Grau leading one and Prío the other) and promising to oppose Batista electorally. On October 1, 1955, Prío addressed a large audience in Havana, perhaps 50,000, denouncing all government acts since the 1952 coup illegal.

    In April 1956, yet another faction conspired to mount an uprising against the Batista regime, the Puros, led by Colonel Ramon Barquin (the military attache in Washington) and supported by tank commander Colonel Manuel Varela. The Puros were largely composed of young army officers, who intended to take Camp Columbia pronunciamento-style and exile Batista back to the US. The Puros had strongly opposed the Prío administration as well as the Batista regime. But before the Puros could act, they were tipped off to Batista's secret police, who purged the army of much of the cream of their officer corps.

    On April 29, a young Auténtico, Reynol Garcia, refuses to put down arms, instead leading a small, failed attack on Goicuria army barracks in Matanzas. Batista took advantage of this incident to put Prío on house arrest, but allowed him to leave for Miami. Prío, desperate for support, looked to both Castro and Rafael Trujillo, the brutal caudillo of the Dominican Republic. Trujillo decides to support Prío, hoping that a civil war in Cuba would weaken it's sugar exports, strengthening the competitiveness of Dominican sugar and allowing him to line his own pockets. Trujillo agreed to train a pro-Prío force for an invasion of Oriente. Castro also approached Prío, swimming across the Rio Grande and conferring with him in a hotel in McAllen, TX. Prío agrees to provide $100,000 for Castro's expedition. This was enough to buy arms, a boat and the 'neglect' of Mexican authorities. In late 1956 however, Trujillo dropped support for Prío, due to Batista's concessions on Dominican meat exports to Cuba. By early 1957, Luis Chaviano (the leader of Prío's militia) and his 147 men had returned to Miami from the Dominican Republic. Prío felt ready to mount an invasion. Chaviano's force attacked near Baracoa on the Northern Coast of Oriente. Crashing away from their intended landing place, they marched inland, trying to reach the Sierra Cristal. They were unsuccessful. Batista's army cut them off. The rebels surrendered and were summarily executed.

    A more successful group was the Directorio Revolucionaro (DR), a Catholic student group led by José Antonio Echeverría and committed to political liberty, economic independence and social justice. Whilst their first major action, an attack on the Presidential Palace on March 13, 1957, was unsuccessful [54], they retreated into the Escambray Mountains to conduct a guerrilla war. The location was prime for irregular warfare. The Trinidad-Sancti-Spiritus region it was located within produces the second-largest share of coffee production in Cuba. Surrounding valleys provided good rice, bean and vegetable crops and cattle ranches. It had a central location to strike into the surrounding regions, with access to urban recruits from Cienfuegos to the South-West and was near sugar workers which had allied with the DR in Las Villas. By September 1958, the DR had 800 active guerrillas.

    With guerrillas led by Castro and Echeverría bleeding the Cuban army in the countryside, Batista's regime was coming under increasing stress. País' urban guerrillas had become increasingly powerful, especially amongst trade unions, and had expanded even into Havana. On Christmas Day 1958, País, taking advantage of the Cuban Army's crushing defeat in their September campaign to annihilate Castro's Sierra guerrillas, stormed the Presidential Palace with the aid of sympathetic army officers. Batista had managed to flee beforehand, taking with him enormous sums of American dollars. The fall of the Batista regime left the guerrilla forces in something of a limbo. Whilst País' forces were part of MR-26-7, they were still quite separate from the Sierra guerrillas, and whilst the DR wasn't in direct opposition to the MR-26-7, they still disagreed on many significant policies. As somewhat of an olive branch, País and Castro invited Echeverría into a power-sharing arrangement, with the three running the nation as a triumvirate. Whilst the DRs had initiallly intended to keep their arms, Castro had outmaneuvered them with his "arms for what?" speech, and the DRs put down their arms. Nevertheless, whilst the MR-26-7 was popular in the East of the country, the DRs were still more popular in the centre, and in Havana, where they had occupied the University of Havana during País' assault on the Presidential Palace. In fact, the University had become Echeverría's base of operations. Although the factions had largely laid down their arms, relations between them weren't necessarily amenable.

    [54] IOTL, Echeverría was killed in this attack. ITTL, he is not.
     
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    Chapter 17: Molon Labe - Cypriot Decolonisation
  • A New World (1950s): Molon Labe

    Cyprus is an island which has been blighted by factionalism and violence in the second half of the 20th Century. The roots of this division lay in the struggle against British colonialism. Cyprus, traditionally a Greek island, had experienced an influx of Turks during the period of Ottoman rule. This community remained when the British were awarded control in 1878 (in return for guarantees of protection against Russian imperialism). Although the Greeks and Turks had lived in relative peace for centuries, the efforts of the British to maintain their control over the entirety of the island also served to sow the seeds of discord between and amongst the two peoples.

    In the early hours of the 1st April 1955, Cypriots in the capital city of Nicosia awoke to the sound of explosions. Fighters from the previously unknown Ethniki Organosis Kyprion Agoniston (National Organisation of Cypriot Fighters, EOKA) had simultaneously launched three attacks: The attack on the Cyprus Broadcasting Station by the so-called "Astrape" (lightning) team, led by Markos "Lykourgos" Drakos; attacks on targets in Famagusta by the forces of Grigoris "Zhedros" Afxentiou; and raids on the British Army's Wolseley Barracks in the Lefkosia Municipality of Nicosia. An attempt was also made on the life of Robert Perceval Armitage, the British Governor of the island. By June, EOKA was attacking police stations across the island. EOKA was a pro-monarchist group that called for the end to British colonialism in Cyprus and the restoration of the Greek monarchy under Paul of Greece, the brother of King George II who had died during the Greek Civil War.

    EOKA was led by two notable figures: Archbishop Makarios III (who led the political wing of the movement) and Colonel Georgios Grivas (who led the guerrillas). EOKA had been formed on 2nd July 1952 by Archbishop Makarios, and by 7 March 1953, a 'Council of Revolution' which directed EOKA. Grivas himself arrived in Cyprus in November 1954 to coordinate preparations for a prolonged insurgency. Prior to the attacks of April 1, 1955, EOKA was a virtually unknown organisation, particularly amongst the British military and police forces on the island. Nevertheless, by October, when Armitage was replaced by Field Marshal Baron Harding of Petherton, the British were already organising a forceful response. Tensions had increased on the island significantly: A group of 15 EOKA members, led by one of Grivas' lieutenants from April 1, Marko Drakos, escaped imprisonment in Kyrenia Castle by tying blankets together and abseiling out of their cell windows. Grivas, having orchestrated the first few guerrilla actions from a hideout in Nicosia, left the city for the Troodos Mountains to conduct a long campaign. In the Popular Republic of Greece, a bomb went off near Mustafa Kemal Atatürk's old home in Salonika, provoking vicious pogroms (known to the Greeks as the Septemvriana) in Istanbul and Izmir. The bomb was later revealed to have been planted by a Turkish usher, with the intention of inflaming Greco-Turkish relations. 30 died in the pogroms, all non-Turks. The majority of victims were Greeks, who were assaulted and had their properties vandalised, but Jews, Georgians and Armenians were also targeted by the Turkish mobs. In August, the Popular Republic of Greece (PRG) somewhat prematurely made a request to the UN to support Cypriot self-determination, aware that the Greek Cypriot majority desired enosis, unification with the mainland, regardless of political orientation. Nevertheless, they held reservations about EOKA, given Grivas' actions against ELAS during the Greek Civil War and his leadership of the ultra-right "Organisation X" movement active in Greece between 1944 and the Communist victory in the Civil War.

    Baron Harding was challenged by EOKA action upon arrival in Cyprus. The day after he arrived (4th October 1955), EOKA forces commanded by Afxentiou raided the Lefkoniko Police Station in broad daylight and seized the entire contents of the armoury. Unwilling to let such audacious defiance go unpunished, Baron Harding declared a state of emergency on 26 November. Talks with Archbishop Makarios broke down, and in early 1956, the Archbishop was intercepted by Special Branch officers whilst attempting to board a flight at Nicosia Airport. Makarios was exiled to Mahe Island in the Seychelles, as a "guest" of Governor and Commander-in-Chief of the Seychelles Sir William Addis. By this point, the British were desperate to suppress the rebellion. In the December of 1955, Afxentiou had been relocated to the Troodos Mountains with Grivas, and the British tried to take advantage of this by surrounding their headquarters in the mountains near the village of Spilia. The British aimed to capture or kill both Giorgios Grivas and Grigoris Afxentiou, thus decapitating EOKA's leadership. 700 British soldiers approached the mountain from either side. Grivas separated his forces into two, personally leading half of his troops to fight the British units advancing up the North side, whilst leaving Afxentiou to defend the South. The EOKA guerrillas were aware of the British advance, having spotted them approaching.

    Pvt. Douglas tightened the grip on his L1A1 rifle, a British knock-off of the Belgian FN FAL, as he saw the silhouette scamper up the mountain. "They've seen us, Fletch", Douglas muttered to his comrade. "Well its not like there's only a handful of us or nothing. A right commando raid we are. Maybe you'll get to use that fancy 'baaatle-rifle' to use? Fletcher always had a particularly thick accent. Douglas was also the only one in the unit to be issued an L1A1, the rest of his squad armed with the Lee-Enfield No.5 Mk.1 "jungle rifles" and Sterling Mk.4 submachine guns. Sgt. MacPherson strolled over. "Well what're you ladies fookin' around for? Get a move-on, will ya?" The Scots Guardsmen had orders to storm the mountain and capture the leaders of the Cypriot resistance. As Douglas' unit advanced, they encountered relatively weak resistance. "A potshot here and there we can handle", Douglas thought to himself. "But then again, they might just have something waiting for us up on the summit". As the Scots ascended the mountain, the fog became denser and denser, until they had finally reached the summit. Visibility was poor. In the mist fog clouds they saw shadows moving about. Fletcher was the first one to open fire, downing two of the phantom silhouttes with his Sterling. Douglas fired upon one of the shadows which appeared to be charging towards him. Almost simultaneously, Fletcher took a .308 Winchester round to the side of the neck, slicing through his jugular. Eyes wide with disbelief, Fletcher put his hand to his neck, then stared at his bloody palm. Another round shot into his chest, then his shoulder. "Get to cover!" the Sergeant shouted as Fletcher convulsed in agony.

    The Battle at Spilia lasted eight hours, with 250 casualties for the British. As the British approached, the Greek units had both retreated to the summit, then escaped the British noose through a path on the Western side of the mountain. EOKA casualties are unknown, but thought to be minimal. By contrast, the British had experienced the bloodiest single battle of the insurgency, almost all of which were inflicted by other British troops. With increasing pressure on EOKA guerrillas in the countryside (and after a close shave at Kykkos in May 1956), Grivas again relocated, this time to the town of Limassol.

    By 1956, violence between the Greek and Turkish communities on Cyprus was becoming worryingly commonplace. To compensate for the resignation en masse of Greeks from the police, the British colonial authorities started to recruit almost entirely from the Turkish population, which opposed enosis. EOKA shootings of policemen were met with reprisals against Greek families in largely Turkish neighbourhoods. As such, a trickle of Greeks began to leave Turkish communities in the North, whilst the same was true of Southern Turks moving North to avoid counter-reprisals. The local Communist party, the Anorthotikó Kómma Ergazómenou Laoú (Progressive Party of the Working People, AKEL) attempted to prevent the violence. AKEL was committed to a unified Cyprus, with equal rights for both Greek and Turkish Cypriots. They also opposed a violent struggle with the British, at least at first. The Communists in mainland Greece were also becoming increasingly concerned with the situation. Whilst they were proponents of enosis, like many of the Greek Cypriots, they knew such a unification would not be possible with EOKA dominance in Greece. On the other hand, they knew that it would be disadvantageous to undermine the EOKA using AKEL, as the Turkish community on the island (not to mention their NATO adversaries in Turkey itself) would then be in a position of strength. Nevertheless, the Soviets were encouraging the mainland Greeks behind the scenes, hoping to neutralise (or at least endanger) Britain's key base in the Levant.

    In 1957, Archbishop Makarios III was released from exile in the Maldives, but was forbidden to return to Cyprus. Instead, he was transferred to Italy [55]. On June 18, he was kidnapped by Greek agents in Bovesia and transferred to Patras in the Peloponnese. The new Greek leader, Alexandros Svolos, met with the Archbishop and negotiated a deal with the clergyman. The Greeks were willing to give both material and diplomatic support for the Cypriot independence struggle, provided that the Archbishop denounce EOKA in favour of AKEL, and to try and prevent ethnic violence on the island. Whilst Makarios was no Communist, his first priority was expulsion of the British, although the privileges he secured for the Greek Orthodox Church in mainland Greece added a level of temptation to the PRG leadership's offer. It was decided. Makarios' old EOKA group would be forsaken.

    Archbishop Makarios' broadcasts from Rhodes was the latest in a series of blows suffered by EOKA in 1957. On the 18th of January, British forces had attacked Markos Drakos and his men near their hideout in Solea. Allowing his men to retreat, Drakos fought a heroic rearguard action singlehandedly in pouring rain and a hailstorm. His body was recovered with other 40 bullet-holes in it, and spookily, the Bible he always kept on his person was nowhere to be found. On March 3, the British surrounded Afxentiou's unit at his hideout near the Machairos Monastery. Whilst Afxentiou ordered his men to surrender, he himself responded with "molon labe!" ("come and get them", as said by King Leonidas to the Persian King Xerxes at Thermopylae) to the British command to lay down his arms. Taking heavy casualties in their attempts to storm his hideout, the British poured gasoline into it and set it on fire, burning Afxentiou alive. Furthermore, the Turkish minority on the island had formed the Türk Mukavemet Teşkilatı (Turkish Resistance Organisation, TMT) to oppose EOKA (with British encouragement), led by Rauf Denktaş (although Fatin Rüştü Zorlu was the honorary leader). TMT paramilitaries had been trained by Turkish Special Forces veterans and army officers (such as Alparslan Türkeş) who had clandestinely entered the country disguised as teachers, bankers or businessmen. The paramilitaries in the TMT were known as mujahid, and took part in inflaming Turkish opinion against Greek Cypriots, as well as committing atrocities against Greeks and intimidating Turkish workers into disassociating with the AKEL.

    The situation in Cyprus only worsened with the recall of Baron Harding from his post as Governor. Back in the UK, his supposedly 'ineffective' handling of the Emergency had caused significant displeasure amongst the people. He was replaced by Hugh Mackintosh Foot, Baron Caradon. Although Baron Caradon had been Governor of Cyprus between 1943 -1945, he was poorly informed about the current situation and the allegiance of the current groups in Cypriot society. Desperate to keep the peace, he began to take action against all groups perceived to be working against British colonial rule, including the hitherto-non-violent AKEL and the previously British-aligned Turks. On January 27, 1958, a riot incited by the TMT, where Turkish mobs roamed through the streets looting businesses owned by Greeks and beating Greeks in the streets, the British military took action by firing upon the rioters, dispersing the crowd. This action secured the opposition of Turkish Cypriots to the British colonial regime. The increasingly withering EOKA attempted to revitalise it's public support by engaging in anti-Turkish violence. By the end of 1958, EOKA had killed 55 Turkish Cypriots, with TMT killing 60 Greeks in response.

    As the situation became increasingly unstable, it was clear that AKEL would be pulled into the escalating violence sooner or later. They had tried in the past few years to promote peace between the two communities. They had been accepting of both Greeks and Turks. But as AKEL competed with EOKA for the hearts of the Greek population, and as their Turkish membership slowly eroded from the stand-over tactics of TMT thugs, the tail of the dog was wagging the body. AKEL was under increasing pressure to protect it's citizens, particularly in it's strongholds of Limassol and Famagusta. Makarios had gone to AKEL's side, legitimising it in the eyes of many Cypriot Greeks. The PRG had been clandestinely been supplying them with arms for months. AKEL members began making armed patrols into Turkish neighbourhoods with Greek minorities, escorting the Greeks out, much to the pleasure of the pro-taksim (partition) TMT militia. AKEL units barricaded streets to protect Greek and bi-ethnic communities. The British didn't approve of such unilateral action, particularly from a Communist party and who were equipped with clearly Eastern-bloc WWII surplus equipment. Skirmishes in the street between the British and AKEL forces became increasingly frequent[56].

    By 1959, it was clear that the situation in Cyprus could not be sustained. As such, Britain, Turkey and Makarios (even the British acknowledged he was the most influential person in Cypriot society) [57] entered into negotiations about the future of Cyprus. In the end, the London Agreement was signed, where Cyprus would become an independent, sovereign state (with the exception of the remaining British bases at Akrotiri and Dhekelia) with a Greek president and a Turkish Vice-President. Both enosis and taksim were prohibited. A number of complicated and difficult constitutional safeguards were put into place in order to protect the Turkish minority. Although Cyprus was recognised as an independent country in 1960, sever problems still remained. There were major differences of opinion between AKEL and Archbishop Makarios, although his spiritual authority and popularity left him essentially untouchable. The Turkish TMT militias remained a significant threat, which couldn't be disarmed without sparking a civil war, and the EOKA insurgency continued in part of the countryside against what they considered "godless Communist puppets" [58], although they didn't say anything so harsh about Makarios, who clearly still sympathised with their cause unofficially. The Cypriot problem would flare up again, and have massive implications not only for Cyprus, but also for the mother countries: Greece and Turkey.

    [55] Historically, Archbishop Makarios was allowed to return to Athens, during the rule of the right-wing Greek military junta. But ITTL, with a Communist Greece, allowing him to go there out of all places would be unlikely.

    [56] In OTL, AKEL consistently supported a peaceful, united-island policy. They wanted Gandhiesque non-violent resistance, but with circumstances on the island as they are ITTL, this isn't really possible. Plus, whilst EOKA doesn't have the right-wing Greek benefactors they did OTL, AKEL has left-wing Greek benefactors in the Popular Republic of Greece.

    [57] In OTL, Greece was also invited. But the British aren't going to invite a Communist Greece to the table.

    [58] IOTL, the EOKA insurgency ceased with the granting of Cypriot independence. Grivas only reluctantly ordered a ceasefire, largely out of respect for Makarios, despite no enosis. With a more leftist Greek government, it is highly unlikely he'll halt the armed struggle.
     
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