How could the Spanish Civil War end in a bloody stalemate? And what would be the effect of such event to Spain and the rest of Europe?
Spanish Civil War ends in a bloody stalemate
- Thread starter Tredecimus
- Start date
BUTTERFLIES WOULD EFFECT THE MOLOTOV - RIBBENTROP PACT IF IT ENDS MORE THAN 4 MONTHS AND 3 WEEKS LATER THAN OTL.
Dr. Strangelove
Banned
The Republicans start their Teruel Offensive in December 1937 with better preparation:
1-The International Brigades are brought onto the battle rather than kept in reserve as IOTL for propaganda purposes.
2-Rather than getting bogged in a very difficult urban battle for Teruel itself, the Republicans just encircle the city and continue advancing west. OTL, a major objective of this offensive was to capture the city for the propaganda hit that would be the first Republican recapture of a provincial capital. OTL the nationalist defenders of Teruel resisted for weeks in house-by-house fighting in subzero temperatures. The Republicans captured the city for a few days before a nationalist counteroffensive drove them back in January 1938.
Instead, the Republicans encircle Teruel and capture the easily defensive positions in the mountains west of the city, accomplishing their strategical goal of closing the Teruel salient that threatened the mediterranean coast. Teruel itself is besieged for months and surrenders sometime in the spring of 1938. However, with more available men, not having to deal with the Teruel meat grinder, occupying defensible positions in the mountains and threatening new offensives in the Aragon and Guadalajara fronts, the Republicans are able to easily withstand the Nationalist counteroffensive.
By the spring of 1938, the republicans have suffered much less casualties than OTL, have finally captured Teruel and have managed to keep their airforce largely intact. Now either Franco cancels the spring offensive in Aragon, that IOTL led to the nationalists reaching the mediterranean coast and splitting Catalonia away from the rest of the Republican zone, or it succeeds but the Republicans are in a much better shape when Vicente Rojo crosses the Ebro in July 1938. This allows the Republicans to win the battle of the Ebro thanks to their new soviet weapons and planes, and reconnect Catalonia with the rest of the Republican area.
By September 1938 both sides are exhausted: the Nationalists have suffered their first major strategic defeat in two years, the frontlines have barely moved for a year and the Republicans still are in no shape no start any major offensive. By late 1938, the Republicans are receiving more and more soviet supplies, but they still keep to their OTL strategy of slowly building up, resisting any major nationalist offensive and wait for the general european war that they assume will come sooner or later. This is made easier since they still control Catalonia's industry (and maybe victories in both Teruel and the Ebro give the Republican government enough political capital to be able to wrestle away the catalan factories from the anarchists). As 1939 begins, neither side is able to mount any major offensive: the Republicans are strong enough to resist but too weak to attack, and the Nationalists are unable to dislodge them from their positions around Madrid and in Aragon -and Franco's well of german and italian weapons is starting to dry as Germany now has other priorities...
1-The International Brigades are brought onto the battle rather than kept in reserve as IOTL for propaganda purposes.
2-Rather than getting bogged in a very difficult urban battle for Teruel itself, the Republicans just encircle the city and continue advancing west. OTL, a major objective of this offensive was to capture the city for the propaganda hit that would be the first Republican recapture of a provincial capital. OTL the nationalist defenders of Teruel resisted for weeks in house-by-house fighting in subzero temperatures. The Republicans captured the city for a few days before a nationalist counteroffensive drove them back in January 1938.
Instead, the Republicans encircle Teruel and capture the easily defensive positions in the mountains west of the city, accomplishing their strategical goal of closing the Teruel salient that threatened the mediterranean coast. Teruel itself is besieged for months and surrenders sometime in the spring of 1938. However, with more available men, not having to deal with the Teruel meat grinder, occupying defensible positions in the mountains and threatening new offensives in the Aragon and Guadalajara fronts, the Republicans are able to easily withstand the Nationalist counteroffensive.
By the spring of 1938, the republicans have suffered much less casualties than OTL, have finally captured Teruel and have managed to keep their airforce largely intact. Now either Franco cancels the spring offensive in Aragon, that IOTL led to the nationalists reaching the mediterranean coast and splitting Catalonia away from the rest of the Republican zone, or it succeeds but the Republicans are in a much better shape when Vicente Rojo crosses the Ebro in July 1938. This allows the Republicans to win the battle of the Ebro thanks to their new soviet weapons and planes, and reconnect Catalonia with the rest of the Republican area.
By September 1938 both sides are exhausted: the Nationalists have suffered their first major strategic defeat in two years, the frontlines have barely moved for a year and the Republicans still are in no shape no start any major offensive. By late 1938, the Republicans are receiving more and more soviet supplies, but they still keep to their OTL strategy of slowly building up, resisting any major nationalist offensive and wait for the general european war that they assume will come sooner or later. This is made easier since they still control Catalonia's industry (and maybe victories in both Teruel and the Ebro give the Republican government enough political capital to be able to wrestle away the catalan factories from the anarchists). As 1939 begins, neither side is able to mount any major offensive: the Republicans are strong enough to resist but too weak to attack, and the Nationalists are unable to dislodge them from their positions around Madrid and in Aragon -and Franco's well of german and italian weapons is starting to dry as Germany now has other priorities...
I've been intrigued by what I call International Brigades AH. One thing I wonder is if the Republic is seen as at least holding its own how this would impact recruitment for the IB's. Would the comintern ramp up recruitment, would non-communists be more energized as well, seeing that the aid to the Republic was not in fact a losing cause. In OTL, about 35k volunteers served in the IB's, and I don't know if in fact more were in the pipeline so to speak or whether that represented about the realistic limit of who all would have served there.
In this ATL even if its only stalemated, word of the IB's successes around Teruel could have energized a fresh wave of recruits in 1938-39.
In this ATL even if its only stalemated, word of the IB's successes around Teruel could have energized a fresh wave of recruits in 1938-39.
Dr. Strangelove,
that is a very interesting scenario, but it sounds more like a slow Republican victory than a stalemate.
The main problem with any stalemate proposal is that if WWII breaks out, which is extremely likely, its hard to see the peninsula not getting dragged in, and that's going to break the stalemate one way or the other. One possibility would be to have a more successful France, which keeps Italy out of the war (but perhaps still supplying Franco), while Franco's caution keeps him from doing anything rash like declaring war on France in support of the Germans.
that is a very interesting scenario, but it sounds more like a slow Republican victory than a stalemate.
The main problem with any stalemate proposal is that if WWII breaks out, which is extremely likely, its hard to see the peninsula not getting dragged in, and that's going to break the stalemate one way or the other. One possibility would be to have a more successful France, which keeps Italy out of the war (but perhaps still supplying Franco), while Franco's caution keeps him from doing anything rash like declaring war on France in support of the Germans.
about the only way I could think of the sides staying out would be for Hitler to insist on a full declaration of war on Franco's part to be kept supplied by him and Mussolini and the republicans, completely communisitcised (?) by then unwilling to deal with the allies until the USSR gets attacked. By the time this arrive, the 2 sides have reached an armistice and following WW2, the state of spain is propped up by the allies during the cold war and the republic gets cosy with the communist but unaligned country to avoid giving anyone a reason to do some regime change.
Dr. Strangelove
Banned
Maybe it's because in the last year of the war, victory through stalemate was the Republic's strategy. Republican leadership had understood that it wouldn't be able to inflict a decisive defeat on the Nationalists, so they switched their strategy from minor offensives aimed to taking provincial capitals back to just holding out until the great european war started(the Ebro offensive was a desperate action brought by the need to reconnect Catalonia with the rest of the Republican zone).
It would be interesting to see how would evolve the Spanish civil war if it stalemates into the beginning of the ww2.
And what if Rojo breaks into Extremadura instead of crossing the Ebro? I mean, the offensiva of Peñarolla-Valsequillo in 1939 showed the weakness of the nationalist line in Extremadura, as Rojo thought in his Plan P, and furthermore Queipo also showed how incompetent he was. He only saved the day because the Republic attaqued with an exhausted army. So what if instead in the Ebro, OTL Ebro offensive with those crack units that were lost then,is made in Extremadura? A republican victory here wourld mean that republicans reach the portuguese frontier, cutting the nationalist zone from Andalusia with their main sea port. So, the nationalists would be forced to retreat forces from Aragon, perhaps allowing to reconnect Catalonia.
Hm, by then I suspect the nationalists would be more likely to go for Valencia, thus cutting the republic off from russian aid.
After all, what is there of value in Extremadura ?
The Portuguese border will only open if the republic looks like a winner again...
And does the republic have the sea or air capabilities to move large forces from Catalonia to the central zone at this point ?
After all, what is there of value in Extremadura ?
The Portuguese border will only open if the republic looks like a winner again...
And does the republic have the sea or air capabilities to move large forces from Catalonia to the central zone at this point ?
what about this: nationalists starts to lose , fall back to Africa and starts WW2 being recognised as the legitimate government of spain by the germans/Italians who make good use of the Spanish African territory as staging ground while the allies recognise and prop up the republicans. Russia would remove its help so that continental spain truly is republican and not communist.