Sir John Valentine Carden Survives. Part 2.

Yes it would likely be too early for 1st Australian Armoured but they were going to be sent to the middle East in December 41 so bringing that forward a couple of months to have them with the rest of the AEF divisions is not that much of a stretch.
What was the delaying factor for them being ready in OTL? If it was tanks and other kit, all of this should be eased in this TL.

More tanks are being produced, as well as fast less tanks being lost. That results in more tanks being available. The fact that the fighting in NA is consuming far less men and material than in OTL will further help. If a pal of kit hampered training, then that can be relieved too, at least in part.

This could all lead to 1st Australian Armoured being ready sooner than in OTL. Perhaps.
 
You can understand the Italian high command's viewpoint as they had just seen Rommel sucked into such a trap ending up effectively destroying the DAK.
Aye have to wonder of the Italians are subconsciously half defeated in their own minds at this point. To be a fly on the wall in the Italian battalions at this point would probably be rather interesting and insightful.
 
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You can understand the Italian high command's viewpoint as they had just seen Rommel sucked into such a trap ending up effectively destroying the DAK.
Even if it wasn't intended to be a trap it would probably end up being one. A gap of about 10 miles between two alerted and mobile armoured divisions looks to me as the last place you'd want to advance into. The Italian forces would have been hit from both of their flanks and front.
 
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You can understand the Italian high command's viewpoint as they had just seen Rommel sucked into such a trap ending up effectively destroying the DAK.
Exactly. Suppose Gen Spatocco authorises the counter-attack and the Ariete loops through the gap to hit 7th Armoured in the flank and rear. And suppose 22nd Armoured reacts by continuing its advance to the coast road. Then Gen Spatocco is in the exact same hole the Gen Rommel was at Nofilia a week earlier - his infantry is pinned by a frontal attack, his armoured reserve is committed to an attack to the East and a strong British force is setting up a blocking position on his only supply/retreat route.
Aye have to wonder of the Italians are subconsciously half defeated in their own minds at this point. To be a fly on the wall in the Italian battalions at this point would probably be rather interesting and insightful.
Well, all the way back to the start of Compass every fixed position they've tried to hold has been overrun, often with the loss of the entire defending force. The nearest they've come to a success was the defence of Nofilia in Brevity/1st Nofilia and that required the assistance of the German armoured units that were chewed up at 2nd Nofilia. You can understand them being pessimistic about their chances and paranoid about their retreat routes.

And on top of that attempts to fight a mobile battle against British mechanised forces have been just about as disastrous. The British tanks seem to be unstoppable, and the British seem to have an unlimited supply of them - their forces just get stronger with every advance. Falling back into Tripolitania should have helped by improving Axis logistics while stretching British ones, but there's been precious little sign of that so far, just a cycle of fresh Commonwealth units arriving at the front while the Italians write off division after division. They must be wondering when it stops being worth throwing any more units under the juggernaut.
 
There is no way with inferior tanks that the Italians would put their force between two hardened British Armoured units. Looking at a map, and after watching how the British destroyed Rommel's force, every fibre of their being would assume it was another trap....so rushing to put their heads into a guillotine would be the last thing they would rush to do. More likely after reassessing the more probable routes of attacks, they would shift dug-in positions to new positions as being dug-in would be their only chance against superior British Armour (as well as protecting crews from the forthcoming pre-targetted and pre-scheduled artillery and air strikes).
 
I have to agree with the above sentiment. While I don't doubt that Rommel in their position wouldn't have hesitated to counter attack through the gap, the Italians are currently dealing with the aftermath left after that sort of attack went disastrously wrong. Throwing away their last mobile armoured formation on a chance like that isn't what I would call strategically sound.
 
The M13/40 47mm is more or less the same as the 47/32 the infantry use, and the armour is nothing special. They need to get close to damage the Valiants but are vulnerable to the 2 pounder at pretty much any combat range and are outnumbered. The Valiants are either the same speed or faster and all have radios, so the likelihood of an Italian tactical genius move working is close to zero.
Sure the Italian 149mm and 105mm guns can damage the Valiant, even with HE and any 75 and 90 AA guns will be effective, but any tank action is going to be pretty one-sided unless the allies do something really dumb. Realistically, the Italians are just buying time and must know it by now.
Mussolini is in a bad position. Reinforce them, knowing he risks losing the extra troops (possibly while in transit if the Royal Navy is around)? Leave them to fall unsupported and he takes a hit for losing the colony and abandoning his forces? or risk an evacuation which looks weak and could be a disaster if the RN arrives at the wrong time? Any one of these could be enough to fatally weaken his authority, and a threat to Mussolini creates a threat to Germany if the new regime starts thinking about an armistice with the allies, if only because someone has to be found to garrison and control Greece, Balkans, Albania etc and man borders with Italy. Also, having an unreliable Italian Corps or two in Russia at the start of Barbarossa isn't good news for the axis.
Incidentally, it seems that using Greek troops to take Rhodes isn't a good idea after all (so much for my good idea!). The allies need to keep Turkey neutral witha chance of joining the allies and while Rhodes is currently Italian, it was taken by them from the Ottomans. So politically you have to at least preserve the possibility that Turkey might get it back Handing it to the Greeks rules out that possibility. I can't see this would prevent recruitment from Rhodes and Kos, but maybe some careful unit organisation to maintain the right impression and avoid unpsetting Turkey.
Any Greek troops currently in Alexandria can help out in Syria, or garrison Libya freeing up others for Rhodes, Kos etc.
 
Look on the bright side though all that captured Italian kit has made it so much easier to arm and equip the Greek forces even if Italian gear isn't all that great it beats having nothing!

Also all the captured Italian trucks will helps some with moving logistics around
 
I have to agree with the above sentiment. While I don't doubt that Rommel in their position wouldn't have hesitated to counter attack through the gap, the Italians are currently dealing with the aftermath left after that sort of attack went disastrously wrong. Throwing away their last mobile armoured formation on a chance like that isn't what I would call strategically sound.
I do wonder if the proposal was less "I think this is a good idea that would succeed" from the Ariete commander and more "The current situation is unsustainable, we're losing every time we fight and the only reason we aren't suffering from mass desertions is that there is nowhere to desert to so we need to do something."
 
I do wonder if the proposal was less "I think this is a good idea that would succeed" from the Ariete commander and more "The current situation is unsustainable, we're losing every time we fight and the only reason we aren't suffering from mass desertions is that there is nowhere to desert to so we need to do something."
Indeed. If every routine option means further retreat and probable loss then a bold aggressive move can be no worse and at least has the power to possibly succeed rather than the alternatives which are to lose more slowly. IOTL in 1940 the British were grossly out numbered and unlikely to withstand a well managed attack by the Italians so boldness and aggression tipped the balance in their favour. Unfortunately it later stopped the enhanced British forces from following their established doctrines once they had proper numbers in place.
 
I think that Rommel's failed bold stroke in Battleaxe was probably the last chance for it to be worth trying. A major reverse would have driven the allies back and made future allied advances much more cautious and slower.
I really can't see any prospect of this happening now, so the best strategy is probably a phased retreat to buy time until reinforced (so the axis forces can surrender with their friends) or until they are at the gates of Tripoli (where they put up a good show then surrender). The big questions then are do they try to sabotage the port and if so do they succeed. I could see a commando raid being considered to forestall this.
 
17 June 1941. Operation Battleaxe. Day 11
17 June 1941. Operation Battleaxe. Day 11

The attempt the day before by the Regia Aeronautica to intercept the Royal Navy hadn’t been attempted again, which was fortunate for the Inshore Squadron which appeared during the night offshore and began a bombardment of the southern part of the Italian defensive line. The 9th Australian Division had arrived the evening before and prepared themselves for the assault. The Divisional artillery, along with the 4th Indian and 7th Armoured Divisions’, had been hard at work for much of the night, bombarding the Italian positions. The engineers, along with groups of volunteers, had been checking the approaches for mines and clearing them when found. Once again, the RAF bombers appeared in force and began a south to north bombing run behind the Wadi Tilal.

The artillery began a timed creeping barrage behind which the Australian 20th and 26th Brigade in the south, the Indian 5th and 7th Brigade in the centre advanced in concert with the remaining tanks of 7th Tank Brigade. To the north of them, the 1st and 45th Bn RTR and 2nd Bn Rifle Brigade led the 7th Armoured Brigade’s attack. For most of the day all three assaults made little progress. The Italians has organised their defensive positions very effectively, providing interconnected fire and the liberal use of mines which the tanks had no answer to. The Italians had little, other than mines that could effectively stop the tanks, and although the Italian infantry gave an excellent account of themselves, by 16:00hrs, all three British assaults had gained ground and had begun penetrating the defensive line.

It was the Australians who made the breakthrough, the naval bombardment in the morning had caused serious damage to the secondary line of the Italian positions. Once the 26th Brigade had cleared the flat killing ground of the abandoned airfield, and began hitting that secondary line, it became clear that this was where the breech was going to be made. Major-General Morshead ordered the reserve Brigade (24th) to push through the other two Brigades which had reached a state of exhaustion. All the remaining tanks of 44th Bn RTR (7th Tank Brigade) concentrated with the lead battalion (2/32nd Bn) and, almost along the beach, were able to round the Italian positions.

General Spatocco could see that his command wasn’t going to be able to hold much longer. He gave the order for the Ariete Division to counterattack the Australians, to allow 27th Division (Bresca) time to recover and reorientate themselves against this breakthrough. General di Nisio’s Division was fully equipped with the Carro Armato M13/40 whose 47mm gun was about equal to the British 2-pdr, though with an effective HE shell, but its protection was much weaker than the British Valiant Is. The M13/40 tanks of X Tank Battalion, accompanied by the XII Auto-transported Bersaglieri Battalion, were first the elements of the Division to clash with the Australians. The way which the Italians hit the Australians meant that the whole of D Company of 2/32nd Battalion were cut off and reduced until they had to surrender. The rest of the Battalion were thrown back, but reinforced by two Companies of 2/24th Battalion and a battery of 2-pdrs from 2/3rd Anti-Tank Regiment, they finally held. The Valiant I tanks that were still running added their guns to the defence, so that much of X Battalion were knocked out. With the rest of 2/24th and 2/23rd Battalions moving up the Italian counterattack stalled.

With the Italian focus on their left flank, and the movement of the Italian tanks towards the sea noted by aerial reconnaissance, Major-General Gambier-Parry committed his 22nd Armoured Division to a full attack. His Division had continued around the right flank of the Italians and his attack came very close to the rear of the Italian positions. The mines protecting those positions caused the British tanks and Indian motorised infantry problems, but this blow at the opposite end of the line started a panic in General Spatocco’s HQ. Misinformation about where and how strong the attacks were was sent to subordinate units, which meant that reserves were moved without cause towards flanks that were still secure.

When news of the Australian gains on the coast was passed back to XIII Corps HQ, Lieutenant-General O’Connor urged each of his Divisional Commanders to make one more big effort. 4th Armoured Brigade and 11th Indian Brigade, the reserve Brigades for each Division pushed forward together, which coupled with the 22nd Armoured Division’s assault, made the Italian 17th Division (Pavia) positions crumble. All day the Italian soldiers had endured everything the British and Indians had thrown against them, but this assault in the evening was the final straw. The reserves, now out of position, were the first to flee, and then the cry went up for a general retreat. With Spatocco’s HQ unable to control what was happening, it became a case of everyman for himself.

Seeing this, fresh heart was put into the three British Empire Divisions. Men who’d collapsed exhausted were urged to their feet and a general advance and chase was begun. The Ariete Division was now in a difficult situation. With the collapse of 27th Division (Bresca) around them, and increasing pressure from the Australians, General di Nisio ordered his men to attempt to conduct a fighting withdrawal west-ward towards Beurat. If they could keep themselves at a distance from the pursuing British, then darkness would hopefully give them the cover they needed to pull back, in relatively good order.

There were Italian soldiers who hadn’t been able to abandon their positions, and seeing that the fight was over, more and more white flags appeared. A couple of times shots were fired against the Indian troops in the centre from under the cover of flags of surrender. These casualties, after such a day, were enraging, and some violations of the Geneva Convention took place in the aftermath.

The fighting spirit of the Ariete Division remained, even though their tanks were extremely vulnerable to the British tanks and anti-tank guns. The fact that most of the Australian and Indian troops were already tired, and as darkness fell, on unfamiliar ground the pace of the chase slowed to a stop. Except in the case of 4th Armoured Brigade, which along with 7th Support Group, which joined forces with the remaining tanks of 22nd Armoured Brigade and the 3rd Indian Motor Brigade. The combined force, put under the command of Major-General Gambier-Parry, were urged on, even as darkness was falling.

The normal practice for the Armoured Regiments was to retire before dark to refuel, rearm and rest. Night marches were inherently dangerous in the desert for vehicles. 4th Brigade had made a couple of night marches to be in position to attack Nofilia, but these had been marked out for them by the LRDG. The 22nd Armoured Division had less experience, but some of the officers were keen to trying to bag as many of the Italians as possible. Gambier-Parry therefore gave permission for 4th CLY Sharpshooters, with a squadron of 11th Hussars, the lorried infantry of 18th King Edward's Own Cavalry from 3rd Indian Motor Brigade, and two batteries of artillery from 3rd RHA to pursue the Italians. Since air attacks at night by the Luftwaffe were rare, the pursing force would travel with their lights on. It was hoped that in the confusion, any Italian unit they encountered would believe that they were fellow Italians.

From captured Italian maps and aerial reconnaissance there was a landing ground marked near the Wadi Tamet. This would be the objective. If the reinforced Armoured Regiment could cut the road, some 20 miles west of Sirte, it would cut off whatever retreating Italian forces were still on the road. It would also give the rest of 4th Armoured Brigade and 7th Support Group a starting point in the race to the defensible bottlenecks at Beurat.
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The positions of the two Italian divisions is poorly shown here, but it is meant to be a rough guide to what is going on. The map is from here
 
Yeah, that's the impression that I am getting. So North Africa has been a complete disaster for the Axis, if Mussolini was smart and at this point he still might have his head screwed on straight. He might start to consider suing for peace since the war has been virtually a complete disaster from the start, after all, no military and probably no government can probably stomach being so thoroughly hammered so quickly. Since in literally the span of about fourteen months, the wheels have fallen off the wagon for the Italians since you had the clusterfuck that was the Greek Campaign, Operation Judgement which crippled the Italian Navy, the catastrophe that was Cape Matapan which basically obliterated the Italian Navy's Heavy Cruiser Force, and now this disaster. If I was in this situation, I'd be seriously considering suing for peace and at least trying to salvage something from this disaster.
 
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