Russian Emperor Paul I not assasinated

[Faeelin]

Fortunately for them, the RN is the RN and a league of nations with icebound ports cannot prevent the RN from sneaking in and beating them one by one.

Is St. Petersburg an icebound port?

A sneak attack works once, I think, and is not guaranteed to be successful; I think we've discussed how Copenhagen could have gone wrong in the past.

 

[Leistungsfähiger Amerikan]

Is St. Petersburg an icebound port?

A sneak attack works once, I think, and is not guaranteed to be successful; I think we've discussed how Copenhagen could have gone wrong in the past.

I've also seen sources that the fleet was based in Estonia, so the battle would've been somewhere in the Baltic Sea. How powerful was the Russian fleet at this time? I guess I'm used to later Russian history where there fleet wasn't as powerful, but I didn't think they had a big one.

 

[RGB]

Is St. Petersburg an icebound port?

Alas, it can be; moreover, even if the lagoon itself isn't, the Finnish Gulf can easily be. As the can Aland crossing of the Bothnian gulf, and the Danish Belts, for example. Key to Britain isolating Denmark from potential allies, the ice.

But here's an example: the Russians took armies across the Finnish Gulf in frozen crossings in 1577, 1581, and 1940, and in 1809 crossed the Gulf of Bothnia. The Kronstadt Rebellion was suppressed by the RKKA crossing the ice of the bay to storm the naval HQ. The Swedes under GA surpised the Danes by crossing the Belts.

Even if not completely icebound, it took sailing ships largely out of commission for the November-March period, variably as the year may turn out. One reason why so many rowed ships were used well into the late 1700s, too.

I've also seen sources that the fleet was based in Estonia, so the battle would've been somewhere in the Baltic Sea. How powerful was the Russian fleet at this time? I guess I'm used to later Russian history where there fleet wasn't as powerful, but I didn't think they had a big one.

The Baltic Fleet had 27 ships of the line, some command, about half third rates, some older. Many carried carronades too. There were also about 120 frigates of all sizes, 8 very large ones, and an indeterminate amount of smaller vessels that were rowed, or used as bombard ships.

Revel was the second port they used, but they took refuge in the main base, Kronsdadt in 1809 and I'd expect Paul's navy to do the same. Revel can freeze over too.

 

[chornedsnorkack]

Yes, Russian fleet is icebound in winter. But this does not mean that it is a pushover for English. The fleet does not have to take defeats in battles against British Navy when overwhelming forces are present - it can operate as a fleet in being, retreat to ports (St. Petersburg, Tallinn, Vyborg, Riga) in face of overwhelming forces or for winter and harass the British whenever they leave a smaller detachment in Baltic. Whereas British are far away from closest friendly ports.

Are the British in position to land adequate land forces to besiege and take any Russian fleet bases from land side? Because that is the only way they can inflict losses.

 

[Leistungsfähiger Amerikan]

Yes, Russian fleet is icebound in winter. But this does not mean that it is a pushover for English. The fleet does not have to take defeats in battles against British Navy when overwhelming forces are present - it can operate as a fleet in being, retreat to ports (St. Petersburg, Tallinn, Vyborg, Riga) in face of overwhelming forces or for winter and harass the British whenever they leave a smaller detachment in Baltic. Whereas British are far away from closest friendly ports.

Are the British in position to land adequate land forces to besiege and take any Russian fleet bases from land side? Because that is the only way they can inflict losses.

I wonder how the battle would go then? If the British fail to destroy the Russian fleet, then it's just more and more facts that make it seem like they won't want to continue the war.

This makes me wonder how the peace will go. The British accepted peace in 1802, but it didn't last. With the British in a tougher position with the League of Neutrality, I could see the peace actually lasting. Would Austria and Prussia want to join in an anti-French coalition if they'd have to fight a two front war? Probably not. So what will France and Russia do from there? I see an Ottoman campaign--Russia's age old enemy, with Napoleon's eastern imperial ambitions. The question is if that campaign will bring in the British...

 

[chornedsnorkack]

More details:
Nelson fought Battle of Copenhagen on 2nd of April, and by 9th achieved an armistice for 14 weeks. Denmark had learned of Paul´s assassination on 8th, Nelson was as yet unaware.

Swedish navy had not joined Danish navy in battle of Copenhagen on 2nd (contrary winds) and took shelter in the port of Karlskrona behind shore batteries, which Nelson could not defy.

So, on 9th of April the Danes make truce for 14 weeks (till 16th of July).

Nelson sails in earnest to deal with Russian fleet.

What would happen if Russian fleet shelters in a port when Nelson shows up in April and does not accept battle? Is Nelson in a position to achieve victory?

What would happen if Nelson is plainly defeated in April-May 1810 by Russian navy?

What would happen if defeat of Nelson is achieved by getting caught between Russian and Swedish navy?

What would happen if Nelson has achieved no conclusive battle by 16th of July, when armistice with Denmark is due for expiration?

 

[Leistungsfähiger Amerikan]

More details:
Nelson fought Battle of Copenhagen on 2nd of April, and by 9th achieved an armistice for 14 weeks. Denmark had learned of Paul´s assassination on 8th, Nelson was as yet unaware.

Swedish navy had not joined Danish navy in battle of Copenhagen on 2nd (contrary winds) and took shelter in the port of Karlskrona behind shore batteries, which Nelson could not defy.

So, on 9th of April the Danes make truce for 14 weeks (till 16th of July).

Nelson sails in earnest to deal with Russian fleet.

What would happen if Russian fleet shelters in a port when Nelson shows up in April and does not accept battle? Is Nelson in a position to achieve victory?

What would happen if Nelson is plainly defeated in April-May 1810 by Russian navy?

What would happen if defeat of Nelson is achieved by getting caught between Russian and Swedish navy?

What would happen if Nelson has achieved no conclusive battle by 16th of July, when armistice with Denmark is due for expiration?

1801? But all good points---makes me see more and more that this POD puts Britain between a rock and a hard place.

 

[Faeelin]

The Baltic Fleet had 27 ships of the line, some command, about half third rates, some older. Many carried carronades too. There were also about 120 frigates of all sizes, 8 very large ones, and an indeterminate amount of smaller vessels that were rowed, or used as bombard ships.

I don't want to underestimate the value of these galleys, because I think you're being a tad dismissive.

Galleys and gunboats were used in the battle of Rochensalm in 1790, frex. And for the shallow waters of the Baltic, they are ideal in many ways.

Of course if Britain does sink the Russian Navy, one wonders what the long term effects are...

 

[RGB]

I don't want to underestimate the value of these galleys, because I think you're being a tad dismissive.

Galleys and gunboats were used in the battle of Rochensalm in 1790, frex. And for the shallow waters of the Baltic, they are ideal in many ways.

I am not dismissive so much as I am missing information. There were literally hundreds of galleys and xebecas and of course the Swedes used much larger rowed ships. I have no way to tell you how many could be crewed and how many were in good shape, though, and whether they would be deployed at all against a presumably all-big-ship British expeditionary force.

 

[chornedsnorkack]

I am not dismissive so much as I am missing information. There were literally hundreds of galleys and xebecas and of course the Swedes used much larger rowed ships. I have no way to tell you how many could be crewed and how many were in good shape, though, and whether they would be deployed at all against a presumably all-big-ship British expeditionary force.

Depends on where the big ships deploy. After all, the shallow draft galleys could use spots where the big ships are unable to follow them because of shallows, and also maneuver independent of the wind.

How precisely would the all-big-ship British navy go about attacking Kronstadt, with a single narrow deepwater channel surrounded by extensive shoals, shore batteries and batteries built in shallow water?