General Mung Beans
Banned
Is there any way the Republicans could have won the Spanish Civil War and if they did win what would it be like? Would it be a Soviet puppet?
Republican Victory in Spanish Civil War
- Thread starter General Mung Beans
- Start date
A Victorious Spanish Republic
It's impossible to know anything for sure, but kind of interesting to speculate. The Non-Intervention Committee, created to prevent the Spanish war from escalating into a second World War, was successful at least temporarily, although its lopsided enforcement meant the Republic had a much harder time obtaining arms and resources than the Insurgents. The Republicans might have won if they had received the same level of direct support from the West as Franco did from the Axis. But at the time, the idea of class struggle was influential among the working classes of the UK, France and even the US. The 1931 British Royal Navy's Invergordon mutiny, the 1934 Communist-led strikes by American longshoremen and teamsters, and other such dissent, were still fresh in the minds of Western leaders; many at that time felt a greater dread of Communism than of fascism. The help provided by the USSR was barely enough to keep the Republic on life support until Franco entered Madrid in 1939.
But if the left had won the civil war, who knows if things would have been any better? The Spaniards might well have established a brutal, hardline Stalinist state. If the defeated Falangists had fled up into the mountains and waged a guerrilla war like the Republican remnants did in OTL, the need to fight and win a long counterinsurgency campaign might have provided justification for a continued suspension of civil liberties and political freedom.
On the other hand, just because Spain was dominated by Communists (and I believe a victorious Republic would have been) doesn't mean it had to be a Stalinist tyranny, or a Soviet satellite. A homegrown, Spanish variety of Marxism might have evolved there instead.
After the suppression of Franco's putsch, there could have been a post-civil war civil war, between the Communists and the anarchists or moderate leftists. And if Madrid had put down proponents of regional independence or autonomy as harshly as Franco, there might have been uprisings by Basque or Catalan seperatists. An excessively anticlerical Republic would also have antagonized the devoutly Catholic Basques.
I wonder if Hitler, Mussolini and/or Petain would have declared war on the Republic after 1940? The invasion and occupation of Spain would have diverted many thousands of troops from other fronts, where they were badly needed. Maybe a promise by Azana to remain neutral would have been enough to satisfy the Axis powers. I don't think a Republican Spain would have been any more eager to enter World War II than Franquist Spain was. The country was exhausted from its ruinous civil war and could have contributed little in the way of fighting forces in any case, although the use of Spanish air and naval bases would have been a worthwhile asset for the Allies.
In any event, though, there's no reason to suppose that the post-1991 meltdown of Communism in the USSR and Eastern Europe wouldn't have seen Spain make the transition to democracy along with the rest.
It's impossible to know anything for sure, but kind of interesting to speculate. The Non-Intervention Committee, created to prevent the Spanish war from escalating into a second World War, was successful at least temporarily, although its lopsided enforcement meant the Republic had a much harder time obtaining arms and resources than the Insurgents. The Republicans might have won if they had received the same level of direct support from the West as Franco did from the Axis. But at the time, the idea of class struggle was influential among the working classes of the UK, France and even the US. The 1931 British Royal Navy's Invergordon mutiny, the 1934 Communist-led strikes by American longshoremen and teamsters, and other such dissent, were still fresh in the minds of Western leaders; many at that time felt a greater dread of Communism than of fascism. The help provided by the USSR was barely enough to keep the Republic on life support until Franco entered Madrid in 1939.
But if the left had won the civil war, who knows if things would have been any better? The Spaniards might well have established a brutal, hardline Stalinist state. If the defeated Falangists had fled up into the mountains and waged a guerrilla war like the Republican remnants did in OTL, the need to fight and win a long counterinsurgency campaign might have provided justification for a continued suspension of civil liberties and political freedom.
On the other hand, just because Spain was dominated by Communists (and I believe a victorious Republic would have been) doesn't mean it had to be a Stalinist tyranny, or a Soviet satellite. A homegrown, Spanish variety of Marxism might have evolved there instead.
After the suppression of Franco's putsch, there could have been a post-civil war civil war, between the Communists and the anarchists or moderate leftists. And if Madrid had put down proponents of regional independence or autonomy as harshly as Franco, there might have been uprisings by Basque or Catalan seperatists. An excessively anticlerical Republic would also have antagonized the devoutly Catholic Basques.
I wonder if Hitler, Mussolini and/or Petain would have declared war on the Republic after 1940? The invasion and occupation of Spain would have diverted many thousands of troops from other fronts, where they were badly needed. Maybe a promise by Azana to remain neutral would have been enough to satisfy the Axis powers. I don't think a Republican Spain would have been any more eager to enter World War II than Franquist Spain was. The country was exhausted from its ruinous civil war and could have contributed little in the way of fighting forces in any case, although the use of Spanish air and naval bases would have been a worthwhile asset for the Allies.
In any event, though, there's no reason to suppose that the post-1991 meltdown of Communism in the USSR and Eastern Europe wouldn't have seen Spain make the transition to democracy along with the rest.
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This is my favorite WWII what if, simply because it's early in Hearts of Iron 2 and it would probably only have really tiny ripple effects on the rest of the world, except for maybe a lacking in fascist oppression.
Spain doesn't have to become a Stalinist state, but if they do become communist, they could become part of the Comintern, perhaps. Which means, well...Spain gets clusterfucked by the Nazis after they invade France. Although, if Germany has to fight the Communists on two fronts, along with the allies, that might have some slight implications.
Even if Spain doesn't join with the Soviets, it's very likely that the Germans would attack Spain along with the rest of Europe.
Spain doesn't have to become a Stalinist state, but if they do become communist, they could become part of the Comintern, perhaps. Which means, well...Spain gets clusterfucked by the Nazis after they invade France. Although, if Germany has to fight the Communists on two fronts, along with the allies, that might have some slight implications.
Even if Spain doesn't join with the Soviets, it's very likely that the Germans would attack Spain along with the rest of Europe.
General Mung Beans
Banned
Here's my TL:
The Republicans win the Spanish Civil War and the Nationalists are defeated by 1939. The communists however seize power with Soviet support suppresing opposition movements. This communist Spain allies with the Soviet Union. When World War 2 begins Germany doesn't invade Spain immediatly so they won't anger the Soviets however after Barabossa Germany invades Spain with Nationalist exiles. This results in a second Peninsular War with British troops landing there. With the Germans stretched even thinner then OTL they collapse earlier without troops in Germany, France, and Eastern Europe. However the communists seize power once more after World War 2 ends and joins Warsaw Pact. The Cold War includes Nationalist and other anti-Communist guerillas supported by the US operating in Spain leading to many close ups especially when the Soviets deploy nuclear missles to Spain. When the Spanish communist government collapses in 1985 a fragile democracy takes power.
The Republicans win the Spanish Civil War and the Nationalists are defeated by 1939. The communists however seize power with Soviet support suppresing opposition movements. This communist Spain allies with the Soviet Union. When World War 2 begins Germany doesn't invade Spain immediatly so they won't anger the Soviets however after Barabossa Germany invades Spain with Nationalist exiles. This results in a second Peninsular War with British troops landing there. With the Germans stretched even thinner then OTL they collapse earlier without troops in Germany, France, and Eastern Europe. However the communists seize power once more after World War 2 ends and joins Warsaw Pact. The Cold War includes Nationalist and other anti-Communist guerillas supported by the US operating in Spain leading to many close ups especially when the Soviets deploy nuclear missles to Spain. When the Spanish communist government collapses in 1985 a fragile democracy takes power.
Dr. Strangelove
Banned
Yes, like the US and Britain would allow a communist government next to Gibraltar and with thousands of allied soldiers and exactly zero soviet soldiers in spanish soil. 
Lets turn this scenario upside down and lets say that Stalin hadn't purged his armed forces in the early 1930s. Then lets that Republic Regime in Madrid is threated by the Nazi/Italien-backed Franco forces as in the OTL.
What if in 1936 then a much more mobile Red Army sends navyships filled with troops and armour to help boolster the Republic Defences and put down Francos upricising.
Would these be able to land in Southern Spain? Would they get pass the Italian Navy?
How would France and Britain react to a Red Army presence in Spain? Maybe see an earlier British Support for Franco to help guide him away from a close alliance with Nazi Germany?
What if in 1936 then a much more mobile Red Army sends navyships filled with troops and armour to help boolster the Republic Defences and put down Francos upricising.
Would these be able to land in Southern Spain? Would they get pass the Italian Navy?
How would France and Britain react to a Red Army presence in Spain? Maybe see an earlier British Support for Franco to help guide him away from a close alliance with Nazi Germany?
Yes, easily.
Mussolini is not entirely convinced to support the alzamiento. He agrees to send arms and supplies, maybe trainers and advisors, but decides that directly committing aircraft of the Regia Aeronautica from the very first days is too much.
So the airlift from Morocco to the Peninsula doesn't take place. The very effective and dedicated Moroccan and legionary troops only arrive in very small numbers; they are mostly bottled on the other side. The Nationalists attempt to ship them across the straits, but the navy is largely loyal to the government and in a series of small naval actions they interdict the sea lanes.
By October 1936, the Nationalists are in full control in the Canarias and Morocco, but in the homeland, they only hold a few cities in the South (Sevilla, Córdoba), Navarra, Estremadura, and minor areas elsewhere (Southern Galicia, one of the Baleares etc.). What's more, they are not making any headway; on the contrary, the Republicans are reducing their strongholds one by one. The Republicans suffer heavy losses due to their lack of training, but the golpe has clearly failed.
Therefore, the Nationalists cannot muster additional foreign support. When the senior officer commanding Astorga obtains from the government favorable conditions for himself and his officers in exchange for his surrender, internal support, too, begins to fade away. By December, the last Nationalist stronghold in Córdoba surrenders, thus leaving the Republicans in control of everything outside the colonies and the Canarias. The Nationalist-held territories are not self-supporting, economically. Internecine infighting begins among the generals, until a "moderate" faction gains control and negotiates a deal with the government.
The alzamiento is officially over by February, 1937. Political murders continue for a while, significantly weakening the conservative leadership and political parties throughout Spain. The general corps is entirely renovated. The Communist party's influence has been slightly increased, but the main players, endlessly bickering, still remain the reform-minded Socialists and the more or less extreme Anarchists.
Dr. Strangelove
Banned
That way they would only lose the loyalty of the rest of the army. And the moroccans could care less about independence: they were by far Franco's more reliable troops even if Franco fantasized about incorporating all of Morocco as a spanish colony.
On a slightly unrelated note, the amount of power the communists had during the war is always overstated. The communists were never able to wipe out the rest of the leftist political groups, and it is always forgotten that in March 1939, when everything was lost, the anarchists, liberals and pro-western socialists gave a coup in Madrid that wiped out communist presence in the capital. When the communist government in Valencia sent troops to quell the rebellion, those troops were defeated and their commander executed, and the communist leadership in Valencia fled Spain. The last republican government in spanish soil during the last weeks of the war had no communist presence at all. It is one of the reasons I think that a communist takeover in the event of a republican victory is unlikely. Thinking that spain could remain communist after WW2 is, simply, ASB.
They didn't do that OTL out of some concern for France's response, given that an independent "Morocco" would (or could) be seen as undermining their control of French Morocco.
The Republicans didn't want to alienate France, given how eternally hopeful they were for support or intervention from Paris of any sort--which of course didn't materialize.
Would France have truly reacted with hostility to an independence plan as the Republicans feared?
My opinion of how Republican Spain could have survived:
- As it was said before, Mussolini doesn't provide air transport so that Franco can cross his Moroccan Army through the Gibraltar Strait.
- Somehow, the UK realises that a strong Republic they have supported might be a better gamble for their country than a fascist dictatorship and doesn't push forward the Non-Intervention Committee.
- France's Popular Front government provides weapons to the Republic as it was expected.
- The NIC actually works and no country provides weapons to either side. When ammunition runs out, both sides will be forced to make a deal.
- The Republican Army doesn't launch the Battle of the Ebro, preferring to hold out in defensive positions until WWII starts.
- As it was said before, Mussolini doesn't provide air transport so that Franco can cross his Moroccan Army through the Gibraltar Strait.
- Somehow, the UK realises that a strong Republic they have supported might be a better gamble for their country than a fascist dictatorship and doesn't push forward the Non-Intervention Committee.
- France's Popular Front government provides weapons to the Republic as it was expected.
- The NIC actually works and no country provides weapons to either side. When ammunition runs out, both sides will be forced to make a deal.
- The Republican Army doesn't launch the Battle of the Ebro, preferring to hold out in defensive positions until WWII starts.
General Mung Beans
Banned
This may quite likely lead to an earlier World War 2
It may not be the most plausible but it's hardly ASB for the communists to seize power in Spain with Soviet support.
Dr. Strangelove
Banned
Except Stalin didn't really give a shit whether Spain was communist or not, specially pre-WWII. His support to the republican government was more a propaganda stunt than a real wish to get an ally in southwestern europe, an area where he had no interest whatsoever. 1936 is not 1945.
General Mung Beans
Banned
If the Republicans manage to win, Stalin might change his mind especially if he distrusts Hitler after the Molotov-Ribbentop Pact.
Dr. Strangelove
Banned
Wait, what?
Stalin blindly trusted Hitler after Molotov-Ribbentrop. In fact, he kept blindly trusting him even for the first weeks after Barbarossa. And once Hitler invades Western Europe, Spain is as far from Stalin as the moon. Not a chance a single soviet soldier will even approach the western mediterranean. And without direct soviet support, the communists in Spain are doomed.
Not to mention that to have the communists in control of Spain they should start another civil war, and this time they would be fighting against almost everyone else.
Anyway, Stalin liked the Francoist victory in the end, because he though that with a fascist regime right on France's ass, the French would be drawn closer to the Soviet Union.
Anyway, Stalin liked the Francoist victory in the end, because he though that with a fascist regime right on France's ass, the French would be drawn closer to the Soviet Union.
General Mung Beans
Banned
What about after World War 2 ends? If the Germans invaded a Spain where the Republicans won and Spain's in chaos the Soviets might support the communists like in Poland or Czechoslovakia.
Dr. Strangelove
Banned
But the western Allies wouldn't let them, because Spain would be as deep in the american sphere of influence as you can be, and the british would never, ever allow communist insurgence right next to Gibraltar. It would be like the allies propping nationalist insurgence in the Ukraine after WWII.
General Mung Beans
Banned
Well the US did sponser guerrilas in Ukraine and what about communists in Cuba? It's far closer to America then Spain yet a communist revolution succeded there.