How can we have a POD where after the fall of the USSR in the early 90s, there is not a power vacuum where the old Russian Bear used to be, and the US is not the sole superpower? Everyone used to talk about how the Japanese were going to be the next US rival (remember Rising Sun?) in the early-mid 90s and then the Chinese in the late 90s-early 00s, but instead we got the many-headred hydra of today. How can we get a timeline where in 2004 the US is in active competition with a single major superpower comparable to what it used to do with the Soviets?
Post-Cold-War, non-Soviet rival to the US
- Thread starter kek
- Start date
Pretty hard to do with the existing set of nations. While the possible counters to the United States (Europe, a resurgent Russia, China, maybe even India) are powerful, none of them can sustain the kind of power the USA enjoys and not go broke fairly quicky. Of course, if the USA suffers a nasty depression/natural disaster, this might even up the playing field a bit.
Greater India
This is a hard one. Your best bet is for a TL where there is no Gandhi but some alternative pivotal figure who is less religious, less statist and more free enterprise oriented. He or maybe his annointed political figure create an India that includes Pakistan and is able to move the fairly recent Indian economic miracle ahead by four decades. That is phase one where the central government is fairly weak. In phase two another leader emerges and talks about India taking its rightful place in the Sun and embarks upon a military program made possible by the economic miracle of phase one.
This is a hard one. Your best bet is for a TL where there is no Gandhi but some alternative pivotal figure who is less religious, less statist and more free enterprise oriented. He or maybe his annointed political figure create an India that includes Pakistan and is able to move the fairly recent Indian economic miracle ahead by four decades. That is phase one where the central government is fairly weak. In phase two another leader emerges and talks about India taking its rightful place in the Sun and embarks upon a military program made possible by the economic miracle of phase one.
Faeelin
Banned
Grey Wolf said:
Because it loosened up when it became profitable to focus on service industries, of course. And as an English speaking nation, it's well suited to it.
Adam Smiths' comparative advantage strikes again!
In any case, an earlier economic miracle in India isn't going to produce a superpower capable of rivalling america, but will have interesting effects.
Depends on how far you put your POD back. Also, must it be one nation-state rather than a coalition? With coalitions and POD's going back to 1945 you might get a nastily fascistic EU, a resurgent militarized Japan, a third world alliance of China, India, and God knows what, or even some sort of unified Islam (althought that's a rather low probability one).
If you stick to individual states and post-1991 PODs, there's really very little one could do, although one _might_ get a more threatening Japan: Japan recession goes even worse than OTL, North Korea goes nuclear earlier than OTL, South Koreans follow, right-wing nationalists take advantage of panic and economic troubles to come to power, start rearming Japan.
The trouble is that this Japan, although nervous-making, is simply too dependent on trade and imports to set itself up as Enemey Number One to the Capitalist Big Cheese. US bases on Okinawa are outta there, but Nutty Right Wing Japan's main enemies are China and the Koreans, and some form of accomodation with the US is likely.
If you stick to individual states and post-1991 PODs, there's really very little one could do, although one _might_ get a more threatening Japan: Japan recession goes even worse than OTL, North Korea goes nuclear earlier than OTL, South Koreans follow, right-wing nationalists take advantage of panic and economic troubles to come to power, start rearming Japan.
The trouble is that this Japan, although nervous-making, is simply too dependent on trade and imports to set itself up as Enemey Number One to the Capitalist Big Cheese. US bases on Okinawa are outta there, but Nutty Right Wing Japan's main enemies are China and the Koreans, and some form of accomodation with the US is likely.
Straha
Banned
ok
try having a more selective oil crisis as in OPEC deosn't embargo latin america and we could see brazil become stronger with the economic growth of the 90's being earlier in the 70's. They oculd form a coatilition with a stronger thna OTL argentina,stronger chile. In the 80's we see open borders,unified currency,unified military command structure and a free trade zone for south america. By 1991 the economic links and growth would be such that it would be an alliance/bloc with the power. In 1993 President Jerry Brown(butterflies) along with legalizing narcotics(
),opening trade/relations with cuba he forms the NAU an economic allience between the nations of north america,the carribean and centra
try having a more selective oil crisis as in OPEC deosn't embargo latin america and we could see brazil become stronger with the economic growth of the 90's being earlier in the 70's. They oculd form a coatilition with a stronger thna OTL argentina,stronger chile. In the 80's we see open borders,unified currency,unified military command structure and a free trade zone for south america. By 1991 the economic links and growth would be such that it would be an alliance/bloc with the power. In 1993 President Jerry Brown(butterflies) along with legalizing narcotics(
),opening trade/relations with cuba he forms the NAU an economic allience between the nations of north america,the carribean and centraStraha said:try having a more selective oil crisis as in OPEC deosn't embargo latin america and we could see brazil become stronger with the economic growth of the 90's being earlier in the 70's. They oculd form a coatilition with a stronger thna OTL argentina,stronger chile. In the 80's we see open borders,unified currency,unified military command structure and a free trade zone for south america. By 1991 the economic links and growth would be such that it would be an alliance/bloc with the power. In 1993 President Jerry Brown(butterflies) along with legalizing narcotics(
Ouch. Falkland/Malvinas is going to be NASTY in this TL.
How's this?
Mao Zedong is killed in the Chinese Civil War, and Zhou Enlai, with the support of Zhu De, Commander-in-Chief of the Red Army, is able to become the new head of the Communist Party. The Communists win on schedule in 1949, but Zhou Enlai lacks Mao Zedong's insanity, and thus does not hurtle the nation into crazy plans such as the Great Leap Forward; subsequently, China not only does not suffer 20,000,000+ deaths due to famine, but is able to actually industrialize (rather than concentrate on building incredibly terrible steel foundries that produce crap steel). Furthermore, Zhou is able to convince Stalin that the situation in North Korea is simply not winnable at this time; thus, Stalin does not give Kim Il Sung the green light to attack South Korea in 1949. With no Korean war, Japanese industry is unable to get off the ground, and the situation soon becomes intolerable. In the meantime, by 1955, China has fully recovered from the ravages of World War II, and its apparent success makes it the beacon of light in Asia, rather than Japan. Without the Japanese model, South Korea is also unable to overcome the losses of World War II, while North Korea, kept fed by Soviet and Chinese aid, quickly improves its living conditions, surpassing the South. Although China has "gone red," the calm and security of Asia, combined with the American (in fact, Western) racism against Asians, makes Americans feel more secure about the situation in Asia, and concentrate more on the situations in Europe.
The Soviet boycott of the UN over Taiwan's being seated in the Security Council instead of mainland China ends by 1952. Furthermore, de Gaulle becomes President of France in 1958, and begins his attacks on the power of America and calls for a European Europe. It is in this political atmosphere that Zhou finally feels that the situation is right, and gains Khruschev's support in giving Kim Il Sung the weapons, supplies, and permission to attack. On May 1st 1961, May Day, the radical workers' holiday, North Korea launches a surprise attack on South Korea, quickly penetrating S. Korean defenses and taking the capital city of Seoul. The US' efforts at bringing a UN intervention is vetoed out of hand by the Soviet Union, which calls the war a revolution by the Korean people and thus a "wholly internal matter." de Gaulle also refuses any attempt at NATO intervention, saying, quite bluntly, that he will not spend French lives to save Korean ones. Thus, by the time the United States decides to intervene on its own, the Korean peninsula is completely lost, and the People's Republic of United Korea is proclaimed.
The embarassment in Korea is the last straw; the Americans are generally discredited in Asia, as the Japanese economy is still a bare shadow of what it was before World War II, while China has now become the fourth economic power in the world, behind the United States, USSR, and the UK. Japanese communists win more and more elections in the country. The US responds by increasing its troop strength in Japan, to ward off any attempted Sino-Soviet attempts at an "uprising," and involves itself heavier as Vietnam continues to flare up, including a full-on invasion of neighboring Laos, which is proven to allow Vietnamese incursions across their border.
When Zhou dies in 1976, his successor, the able and resourceful Deng Xiaoping, continues Zhou's foreign policies, which include supplying the communists of Vietnam, who are still fighting against the American giant. America finally withdraws from Vietnam in 1978, but has so heavily damaged North Vietnam that South Vietnam does not crumble. Thus, also the US reputation is damaged at home and the youth movement does not falter in the 1980s, the US stands proud that it succeeded in Vietnam, though at the cost of nearly a hundred thousand American lives. By the end of Zhou Enlai's life, the Soviet Union and the PRC were beginning to go their different ways, as Moscow's attempt to insert its will across Asia were stymied by Beijing; when Deng Xiaoping came to power, he expanded upon the forms of capitalism that had been introduced by Zhou Enlai, which drove the USSR further away and propelled the Chinese economy to overtake Britain's in 1979. Although no Sino-Soviet war erupted, the loss of China as a true ally meant a weakening of the Soviet Union. To prove that they were not like the Americans, the Soviets entered Afghanistan, only to find it as deadly to them as Vietnam had proven to the US. The Soviet Union finally collapsed in 1991, after a failed coup against Mikhail Gorbachev, who had attempted to bring Deng's reforms to the USSR with added freedoms.
With the Soviet Union failed and gone, the People's Republic of China, the most ancient and populous nation on Earth, now led international Communism against the capitalist tide!
Mao Zedong is killed in the Chinese Civil War, and Zhou Enlai, with the support of Zhu De, Commander-in-Chief of the Red Army, is able to become the new head of the Communist Party. The Communists win on schedule in 1949, but Zhou Enlai lacks Mao Zedong's insanity, and thus does not hurtle the nation into crazy plans such as the Great Leap Forward; subsequently, China not only does not suffer 20,000,000+ deaths due to famine, but is able to actually industrialize (rather than concentrate on building incredibly terrible steel foundries that produce crap steel). Furthermore, Zhou is able to convince Stalin that the situation in North Korea is simply not winnable at this time; thus, Stalin does not give Kim Il Sung the green light to attack South Korea in 1949. With no Korean war, Japanese industry is unable to get off the ground, and the situation soon becomes intolerable. In the meantime, by 1955, China has fully recovered from the ravages of World War II, and its apparent success makes it the beacon of light in Asia, rather than Japan. Without the Japanese model, South Korea is also unable to overcome the losses of World War II, while North Korea, kept fed by Soviet and Chinese aid, quickly improves its living conditions, surpassing the South. Although China has "gone red," the calm and security of Asia, combined with the American (in fact, Western) racism against Asians, makes Americans feel more secure about the situation in Asia, and concentrate more on the situations in Europe.
The Soviet boycott of the UN over Taiwan's being seated in the Security Council instead of mainland China ends by 1952. Furthermore, de Gaulle becomes President of France in 1958, and begins his attacks on the power of America and calls for a European Europe. It is in this political atmosphere that Zhou finally feels that the situation is right, and gains Khruschev's support in giving Kim Il Sung the weapons, supplies, and permission to attack. On May 1st 1961, May Day, the radical workers' holiday, North Korea launches a surprise attack on South Korea, quickly penetrating S. Korean defenses and taking the capital city of Seoul. The US' efforts at bringing a UN intervention is vetoed out of hand by the Soviet Union, which calls the war a revolution by the Korean people and thus a "wholly internal matter." de Gaulle also refuses any attempt at NATO intervention, saying, quite bluntly, that he will not spend French lives to save Korean ones. Thus, by the time the United States decides to intervene on its own, the Korean peninsula is completely lost, and the People's Republic of United Korea is proclaimed.
The embarassment in Korea is the last straw; the Americans are generally discredited in Asia, as the Japanese economy is still a bare shadow of what it was before World War II, while China has now become the fourth economic power in the world, behind the United States, USSR, and the UK. Japanese communists win more and more elections in the country. The US responds by increasing its troop strength in Japan, to ward off any attempted Sino-Soviet attempts at an "uprising," and involves itself heavier as Vietnam continues to flare up, including a full-on invasion of neighboring Laos, which is proven to allow Vietnamese incursions across their border.
When Zhou dies in 1976, his successor, the able and resourceful Deng Xiaoping, continues Zhou's foreign policies, which include supplying the communists of Vietnam, who are still fighting against the American giant. America finally withdraws from Vietnam in 1978, but has so heavily damaged North Vietnam that South Vietnam does not crumble. Thus, also the US reputation is damaged at home and the youth movement does not falter in the 1980s, the US stands proud that it succeeded in Vietnam, though at the cost of nearly a hundred thousand American lives. By the end of Zhou Enlai's life, the Soviet Union and the PRC were beginning to go their different ways, as Moscow's attempt to insert its will across Asia were stymied by Beijing; when Deng Xiaoping came to power, he expanded upon the forms of capitalism that had been introduced by Zhou Enlai, which drove the USSR further away and propelled the Chinese economy to overtake Britain's in 1979. Although no Sino-Soviet war erupted, the loss of China as a true ally meant a weakening of the Soviet Union. To prove that they were not like the Americans, the Soviets entered Afghanistan, only to find it as deadly to them as Vietnam had proven to the US. The Soviet Union finally collapsed in 1991, after a failed coup against Mikhail Gorbachev, who had attempted to bring Deng's reforms to the USSR with added freedoms.
With the Soviet Union failed and gone, the People's Republic of China, the most ancient and populous nation on Earth, now led international Communism against the capitalist tide!
Redbeard
Banned
If WWI and/or WWII is less blood draining in Europe the power vaccuum after WWII which really created the US super power status will never emerge. Instead we see the European Empires continue, if we add on the French and Germans approaching each other as in OTL post WWII, we have two extra global powers. One is the continetal European Union and the other the Commonwealth. If the first includes present day EU (- UK) it will have a population over 300 millions people in Europe and an economy comparable to present day USA. Some colonies are by year 2000 still dependent territories or something like that, but others have gained full independence (often after violent conflicts). Commonwealth will have an original core of UK and the "white" dominions (Canada, Australia and NZ with a year 2000 combined population of appr. 130 million people. But in the second half of the 20th century a growing number of colonies is given full membership status of the Commonwealth. Starting with Malaya, Singapore and South Africa and culminating with India in 1976. Where the USA appear rather isolated on its American continents and the EU has had much trouble with its colonies, the Commonwealth has had outstanding success in integrating peoples and economies all over the world and is in 2004 the unrivaled global power. Most 3rd world nations have as their primary dream to be one day full Commonwealth members.
Although the Royal Navy is now for the third century the ruler of the waves, Commonwealth leaders are as always concerned about the world wide obligations and following dispersion of force. But for many decades the main role of the RN has been transporting the Queen around the planet for her yearly visits to parts of the Empire. So far all troubles and dissatisfaction has disappered like dew in the sun when the Queen has shown up. All over the world the expression "Send the Queen!" is used to describe effective trouble shooting.
Regards
Steffen Redbeard
Although the Royal Navy is now for the third century the ruler of the waves, Commonwealth leaders are as always concerned about the world wide obligations and following dispersion of force. But for many decades the main role of the RN has been transporting the Queen around the planet for her yearly visits to parts of the Empire. So far all troubles and dissatisfaction has disappered like dew in the sun when the Queen has shown up. All over the world the expression "Send the Queen!" is used to describe effective trouble shooting.
Regards
Steffen Redbeard
Adam smith and economic liberal wishywashery means very little in material terms, a superpower is defined by its armaments industry and its intelligence service. With the existing post-war nations only China can provide enough of those to compete with americas imperial military power.
Even a united marxist-leninist india with support from the USSR and China would struggle to develop such a level of military power and centralised intelligence service without decimating its international position, its population and its internal security.
Although if India had been allied to china and the soviet union the eastern bloc would probably never have fallen and the west would have been considerably weaker, but india wouldn't have been powerful enough as a superpower in its own right.
The factor that might have created a eastern bloc allied United India would have been an attempt by the british to hang on to their empire in the region. Say if britian came out of the war a bit stronger and Churchill won the election.
As it stood no other superpower could develop because of Russian and US meddling and neo-colonialism which has pretty much kept the southern hemisphere ''undeveloped''.
john
ps and no i don't beleive in indias ''economic miracle''...
Even a united marxist-leninist india with support from the USSR and China would struggle to develop such a level of military power and centralised intelligence service without decimating its international position, its population and its internal security.
Although if India had been allied to china and the soviet union the eastern bloc would probably never have fallen and the west would have been considerably weaker, but india wouldn't have been powerful enough as a superpower in its own right.
The factor that might have created a eastern bloc allied United India would have been an attempt by the british to hang on to their empire in the region. Say if britian came out of the war a bit stronger and Churchill won the election.
As it stood no other superpower could develop because of Russian and US meddling and neo-colonialism which has pretty much kept the southern hemisphere ''undeveloped''.
john
ps and no i don't beleive in indias ''economic miracle''...
Faeelin said:
Lol
na i just tend to use the marxist definiton of the word Material
john
Adam smith and economic liberal wishywashery means very little in material terms, a superpower is defined by its armaments industry and its intelligence service. With the existing post-war nations only China can provide enough of those to compete with americas imperial military power.
The problem is that the strenght of a nation's armaments and intelligence can be greatly increased by having a strong economy. That was the Achilles' heel of the Soviet Union - very strong military, but a weak economy reduced its effectiveness. The same thing was true of China until the 1990s.
The problem is that the strenght of a nation's armaments and intelligence can be greatly increased by having a strong economy. That was the Achilles' heel of the Soviet Union - very strong military, but a weak economy reduced its effectiveness. The same thing was true of China until the 1990s.
Paul Spring said:
This is partly true, but a country would need the springboard of some military presence on which to stand on in the first place in terms of defence.
For example look at the south american nations, none of them could ever really get off the ground, because there economy was effectively dictated by foreign interests.
The first nation to develop along industrial capitalist lines, (ie the UK), is a good example of this. Without the centralised military impetus and central build up of capital it would not have been able to secure the human and material resources of its empire which in turn fuelled its economic growth.
Could britian have expanded economically any further without its navy?
In the same way the US relied on military technology to secure dominance of the amercian continent, using immigrant workers and slave labour where neccessary like the British. I mean take the soviet unions gulag system, which was used like slavery to spearhead industrial growth. How do you think it got people there? Intelligence services and sheer military strength is how they did it surely?
I don't mean to sound callous, but any rival superpower would first have to concentrate enough capital nationally in order to both encourage in migrant workers, expand and modernise cities but firstly it would need a domestic weapons program.If you buy weapons from else where they control you and you would be losing profits.
john
Redbeard
Banned
Bill Haywood said:
Were you by any chance employed around Kremlin in the late 1980's? They sure would have loved to hear such sweet talk!
Well OK, a strong and big economy will not alone bring you great power, sooner or later people will judge you by your capability to kill in an orderly and effective war (i.e. your military capacity and will to use it). EU is an example of how infantilely helpless the worlds biggest economy looks when it comes to killing even small crooks in the backyard. But the process for EU to aquire military hardware and political will is IMO much shorter than for China to get the economy to buy super power capacity and stable political conditions to keep it.
Without a big and stable economy the best you can hope for is to be a pain in the butt of someone else - for a short time.
All in all power starts with good economy and ends with a bad ditto.
Regards
Steffen Redbeard
Knight Of Armenia said:
Well, Legally, he's completely right, as Nato Article V specifies what constitutes an attack to activate Nato treaty. It's limited IIRC, to CONUS, Europe + Algeria and a few other dependencies which were also shed with the years. Asia is definitely out of NATO legal sphere.
Also, I imagine, that this could be read as a tit-for-tat for Suez expedition.
However, given De Gaulles OTL reaction to the Cuba Missile Crisis ( and I mean the inconditionnal and unquestionning support he gave Kennedy ), I have some trouble seing him reacting like this. Refuse to send significant french troops, yes, but blocking all NATO help, I don't see at all.