Position of the Northern Netherlands in a United Kingdom

[Friedrich der Große]

So let’s assume the United Kingdom of the Netherlands stays alive after 1830 because riots are ended quick in august/september 1830 so a wider revolution doesn’t occure.

I think it is inevitable that the balance of power will shift to the Southern Netherlands. but then my question is: what will be the position of the North then?

Will it really be a Second Rank Power or will it keep very much influence? Will it in fact become ‘Greater Belgium’ and not ‘Greater Netherlands’? And will this power shift maybe change back to the North in the 20th century?

Thoughts?

 

[Skulduggery]

I'd say it very much depends on whether, and how, the issues that led to the Belgian revolt IOTL are resolved. If they aren't then the influence remains in the north, because that was where the king wanted the influence to be. However, this means that there will always be the threat of another uprising from the Belgians. If the issues are resolved, that means giving the Southern Netherlands more influence, and thus their relative power over the north grows by default.

 

[Friedrich der Große]

I'd say it very much depends on whether, and how, the issues that led to the Belgian revolt IOTL are resolved. If they aren't then the influence remains in the north, because that was where the king wanted the influence to be. However, this means that there will always be the threat of another uprising from the Belgians. If the issues are resolved, that means giving the Southern Netherlands more influence, and thus their relative power over the north grows by default.

I agree, but is it plausible that the power stays in the North into the 20th century? I doubt it

 

[pompejus]

Will it really be a Second Rank Power or will it keep very much influence? Will it in fact become ‘Greater Belgium’ and not ‘Greater Netherlands’? And will this power shift maybe change back to the North in the 20th century?

No, because I suspect that the Flemish would slowly feel more connection to the north than to the Walloons, or at least will distance themselves from the Walloons. I think thatthe Flemish awakening will happen relatively soon, possibly earlier than OTL, because of the linguistic infoluence of the northern Netherlands. If the Flemish join the Dutch than I suspect the Dutch speaking part of the Netherlands will balance out the Walloon speaking part.

 

[Friedrich der Große]

No, because I suspect that the Flemish would slowly feel more connection to the north than to the Walloons, or at least will distance themselves from the Walloons. I think thatthe Flemish awakening will happen relatively soon, possibly earlier than OTL, because of the linguistic infoluence of the northern Netherlands. If the Flemish join the Dutch than I suspect the Dutch speaking part of the Netherlands will balance out the Walloon speaking part.

So a Northern Netherlands which exists out of the former Dutch Republic + Flanders which is dominant? I agree with that also because during the revolution cities like Antwerp and Gent wanted to stay Dutch.

Will Flanders be the heart of this ‘new’ Northern Netherlands?

 

[pompejus]

So a Northern Netherlands which exists out of the former Dutch Republic + Flanders which is dominant? I agree with that also because during the revolution cities like Antwerp and Gent wanted to stay Dutch.

Will Flanders be the heart of this ‘new’ Northern Netherlands?

The heart? No. The heart will be Holland. But it will be similar to Utrecht and Brabant, close enough to the heart to remain important, but not so far away that it is part of the perifery, like limburg, Friesland, etc

But I also believe there will be a second heart (hmm, the metaphore ends here I guess) around Brussels, focusing on the Walloon industrial era. At least during the second half of the 19th and first half of the 20th century. After that it depends on how Wallonia itself develops. If similar to OTL, it will quickly fall in relevance

 

[Friedrich der Große]

The heart? No. The heart will be Holland. But it will be similar to Utrecht and Brabant, close enough to the heart to remain important, but not so far away that it is part of the perifery, like limburg, Friesland, etc

You mean Flanders will be similar to Utrecht and Brabant?

 

[pompejus]

You mean Flanders will be similar to Utrecht and Brabant?

Flanders and Antwerp, yes. Basicly the boundry regions of the core of the Netherlands.

 

[Friedrich der Große]

Flanders and Antwerp, yes. Basicly the boundry regions of the core of the Netherlands.

Great

 

[Maedrin]

Will it in fact become ‘Greater Belgium’ and not ‘Greater Netherlands’?

Well, considering that the United Kingdom of the Netherlands was officially known as "Royaume des Belgiques" in French and "Regnum Belgicum" in latin, I would say that there is a good chance of that for quite a few people.
More seriously, as industrialisation progress, it is inevitable that the economic and productive heart of the country will be southward for at least the XIX and XX centuries. However, as some have already said, the flemish and the King (at least the first one, who knows for his sucessor?) will counterbalance the wallon influence. Besides, there's a good chance that the most influential banks and financial institutions will remain based in the North. So it's likely that while the french speaking parts will become the most important of this country, the key flemish cities and the core territories of the Netherlands might achieve a status not too far from that by relying on their own comparative advantages. A thriving, united Regnum Belgicum would not be a great power, but it would certainly be the most influential of second-rates power. Of course, all of that depends on how you solve the problems that ended the United Netherlands which isn't that hard, theoritically, but is a lot more difficult when you consider who's actually in charge.

 

[drakeVL]

No, because I suspect that the Flemish would slowly feel more connection to the north than to the Walloons, or at least will distance themselves from the Walloons. I think thatthe Flemish awakening will happen relatively soon, possibly earlier than OTL, because of the linguistic infoluence of the northern Netherlands. If the Flemish join the Dutch than I suspect the Dutch speaking part of the Netherlands will balance out the Walloon speaking part.

walloons would be a tiny minority of 3million in a country of 26+ million population
brussels would likely become flemish again over time and i doubt the walloons would have much say in this country over time, they would not have the benefits they have in belgium that is for sure.

personally i suspect if flanders joins the north then the walloons wil either try to join france/independence or feel more and more dutch and flemish encroachment over time, something we see now arround brussels the other way arround

 

[pompejus]

walloons would be a tiny minority of 3million in a country of 26+ million population
brussels would likely become flemish again over time and i doubt the walloons would have much say in this country over time, they would not have the benefits they have in belgium that is for sure.

Since Wallonia will have the coal and steel, which the rest of the Netherlands barely has (there is some coal in Limburg, but compared to Wallonia not that much), Wallonia will find it self in a very prominent position during the industrial age and I suspect it will be one of the most important regions of the country, just because of that.

But yes, Brussels will remain Flemish (well Dutch speaking) if it remains part of the Netherlands. Only in the 20th century it became mostly French speaking.

 

[Friedrich der Große]

Since Wallonia will have the coal and steel, which the rest of the Netherlands barely has (there is some coal in Limburg, but compared to Wallonia not that much), Wallonia will find it self in a very prominent position during the industrial age and I suspect it will be one of the most important regions of the country, just because of that.

The industrial and economic heart but not the political heart.

 

[pompejus]

The industrial and economic heart but not the political heart.

No, but they will be because of that very influential politicaly. They will have the money and that matters, especialy in the Netherlands.

 

[Friedrich der Große]

No, but they will be because of that very influential politicaly. They will have the money and that matters, especialy in the Netherlands.

But above you suggested that the North would balance out Wallonia.

 

[pompejus]

But above you suggested that the North would balance out Wallonia.

Yes, because it is bigger, has a higher population and actualy also a pretty decent economomical position. Wallonia will be influential, but will not be able to dominate, like it did in Belgium. The north must take Wallonia into account with the decission making proces. It cannot simply ignore it. But Wallonia will not be able to completely dominate the country. It will not be able to force French upon the country for example.

Simply put, there will be Dutch governments with Walloon ministers, possibly even a couple Walloon Prime-Ministers, but they will be a minority.

 

[Friedrich der Große]

Yes, because it is bigger, has a higher population and actualy also a pretty decent economomical position. Wallonia will be influential, but will not be able to dominate, like it did in Belgium. The north must take Wallonia into account with the decission making proces. It cannot simply ignore it. But Wallonia will not be able to completely dominate the country. It will not be able to force French upon the country for example.

Simply put, there will be Dutch governments with Walloon ministers, possibly even a couple Walloon Prime-Ministers, but they will be a minority.

Great

 

[Parma]

Why not the middle , not the North nor the South.
Wallonia, Liege, Mons and Charleroi were centers of heavy industry , coal and iron works but Gent, Aalst and Antwerp were large (textile) industry cities, Maastricht with her ceramic factories. These economic activities will have an effect on the province of Noord Brabant.
This province of the Netherlands (OTL after 1830) largely Catholic remained relative ignorant and underdeveloped during the first 3/4 of the 19th century.
Possible that this part of the Kingdom will develop much earlier due to the vicinity of Antwerp and the possible earlier coal field developments in the Kempen.
To come to the point; the center of power and influence will be Brabant- Flanders and not the outer provinces like Holland and Hainaut - Liege. The center of power will be Brussels, even the government will relocate between The Hague and Brussels every year. The difference between 19th century The Hague and Brussels is large and will be increasing during the 19th century. This is also a factor why the center of power and influence will shift to the center.

 

[Maedrin]

Yes, because it is bigger, has a higher population and actualy also a pretty decent economomical position. Wallonia will be influential, but will not be able to dominate, like it did in Belgium. The north must take Wallonia into account with the decission making proces. It cannot simply ignore it. But Wallonia will not be able to completely dominate the country. It will not be able to force French upon the country for example.

Wallonia won't force French in the country and thus it won't expand as it did in Belgium but if the United Kingdom is to survive, they will need to make quite a few concessions. After all, it will be a rich, influential, demographically dynamic and linguistically and religiously homogenous region (during the XIX/XX centuries) so independance or (re)joining France will be tempting to some.
Otl, in modern day Netherlands, there is roughly 29% french speakers. It seems likely that a sucessful language policy would promote french in the North and Dutch in the South as a second or third language and that number would be a lot higher. It is likely that, with Wallonia at the front, minority/regional languages in the low countries in general will get more recognition sooner.

Simply put, there will be Dutch governments with Walloon ministers, possibly even a couple Walloon Prime-Ministers, but they will be a minority.

That seems very likely.

walloons would be a tiny minority of 3million in a country of 26+ million population
brussels would likely become flemish again over time and i doubt the walloons would have much say in this country over time, they would not have the benefits they have in belgium that is for sure.

personally i suspect if flanders joins the north then the walloons wil either try to join france/independence or feel more and more dutch and flemish encroachment over time, something we see now arround brussels the other way arround

I'm not that familiar with Belgium demographic history, but 3million seems kinda low. According to Eurostat, there is 3.6million walloons (as in inhabitants of Wallonia) but 4.5 million French speakers in Belgium. The number of people that speaks French exclusively will be lower, certainly, but these that speaks two languages (or more) will be higher. French is still an incredibly prestigious and influential language, in the 19th century. That Wallonia is not so politically dominant in the United Kingdom that it was iotl in Belgium means that French will encounter a slower expansion but it will still expand.

Parma's point is very good, I think.

 

[Parma]

To answer the question what will happen with he North in an United Netherlands.
The North will develop more or les on the same pace as it did OTL, relative slow. Industry will develop but as in OTL based on food processing, and ship building. The industry as in OTL will be smaller in size compared to the South. The horse power generated by the steam engines in the north is much smaller than in the South or middle which mean the engines needed in the North are smaller.
Antwerp was during the Union the largest port of continental Europe and will be for the large part of the XIX century. Only after 1870 the north will develop, with the opening of the port of Rotterdam. Textile industry in the North East, due to lower wages for the workers as in Gent. Amsterdam, as in OTL, will start city building after 1860, before that time it looked the same as 150 year ago, etc.