(Polubotkivtsi during the coup attempt according to Wikipedia)
What I am trying to do is to find PODs which make Ukraine's independence during the inter-war more plausible. I was originally thinking of writing some writers' forum stuff taking place in a TL duirng its 30s with that as the premise, however, the more I looked into it, the more interesting possibilities I found. I'd like to hear AH's thoughts, I am not so knowledgable on the Russian/Kerensky side of events and those details are what I am least confident on. Basically I'm asking if anyone thinks this is at all interesting and if there are any glaring issues. If anyone has access to some good literature on this topic I don't I would be eternally grateful for it to be shared.
Background
On July 17th a group of disgruntled Ukrainian soldiers, of the Polubotok regiment (an unofficial military organization ostensibly loyal to the Rada) tried to take over Kyiv. To what degree is the attempt was a coup organized by prominent Ukrainian nationalists (like Mykola Mikhnovsky) to overthrow the Central Rada, or a revolt of soldiers who were not getting sufficient food and were unwilling to either be sent to the Romanian Front (where iotl all but 4 would be killed) or be un-Ukrainianized partially I don't know and historians don't agree as far as I can tell. In 1917 the Bohdan Khmelnytsky regiment was formed (commanded by one Yurii Kapkan), this was done by the Ukrainian Military Club which was a more nationalistic group trying to advocate for a Ukrainian Army (V. Vynnychenko and M. Hrushevsky did not want a professional/standing army). The UMC wanted to create another regiment, this one the Polubotok regiment ended up recruiting 5,000 men, more than they were authorized to, this, along with the Rada's inability or unwillingness to provide for them, caused the initial friction. Concessions to the Provisional Government in Petrograd, and Kerensky, that the Ukrainians would send the Polubotok regiment to the front and that the terms of Ukraine's autonomy would be decided by Russia are the two primary factors that caused the Polubotkivsti to mutiny. Initially, the Rada said it would determine Ukraine's autonomy, the second universal said Russia would. The revolt failed when the Rada rallied loyal troops and Russian units to disarm the rebels, who did not resist with violence.
The role of Mykola Mikhnovsky, who was a prominent nationalist lawyer, writer, and officer accused of trying to foment the coup attempt is unclear. I tend to think he encouraged it, but I am not sure to what degree it was organized by him (or at all). Mikhnovsky wanted military and political autonomy on a path to independence (and peace w/ the CP). He was definitely not a friend of Kerensky. He was exiled to the Romanian front and thereafter led a life in obscurity thereafter. Mikhnovsky was an interesting figure and many prominent Ukrainian officers supported him and his ideas, such as Petro Bolbochan who an important military figure and very popular before being executed for political reasons by Petliura's government. He worked with Pavlo Skoropadsky and his government initially. He was killed by the NKVD or committed suicide in 1924.
I'm in the camp that thinks the affair was mostly a spontaneous uprising by the soldiers even if there had been previous talk or rumors of a coup. Initially, the soldiers supported each other, but, led by their commanding officer Yurii Kapkan, the Bohdanivsti went back to the central government and with the help of the Kyiv Military District and other Russian forces disarmed the Polubotkivsti (after they'd taken most of the city and some arsenals/armories). Some accounts state that Kapkan informed Vynnychenko of some plot and supported him and the Rada. Worth mentioning is also the 2nd Ukrainian military congress which was happening right after (unless there is a discrepancy w/ the Julian calendar I've missed).
POD: My POD is that Mikhnovsky manages to use his allies in the Ukrainian Military Club, which was also named for Hetman Polubotok (they had a hand in the organization of the regiment) to organize an actual coup-attempt convincing the 1st Regiment Bohdan Khmelnytsky to join with the Polubotkivsti and stay with them, either he convinces Kapkan to side with him or he falls ill/dies at the front earlier.
Kapkan is somehow out of the picture or Mikhnovsky convinces his own officers to overule him. Mikhnovsky uses his contacts with officers from both Ukrainian regiments and they launch a coordinated coup-attempt. Both regiments leave their barracks together and take the city, armories, banks, police stations, communication centers. The Kyiv Military District is put under observation by the new government. The rebels demand the Rada repudiate the 2nd Universal and that Vynnychenko and Hrushevsky (among others) resign. They empower the All-Ukrainian Military Congress as a provisional authority. Mikhnovsky becomes the new chairman of the Rada. Petliura who less dramatically opposed the military policies of Vynnychenko and Hrushevsky was still in favor of independence and in favor of an army might compromise, for now, I'll assume he doesn't violently oppose the coup at least. If Vynnychenko does, perhaps allied with local Bolsheviks, he is defeated. This might be the justification for further power being handed to the Military Congress and Mikhnovsky. Mikhnovsky does not declare independence immediately, but makes important contacts with Ukrainian officers in the Imperial Army and renew efforts to Ukrainianize existing military formations and ensure the Ukrainian character of future military formations, in the mold of the Polubotok and Khmelnytsky regiments.
I presume Kerensky would react poorly, with the July Days ongoing or just resolved, as well as the Kerensky offensive having just collapsed I think he might try and negotiate rather than try and respond with force. Millions of Ukrainian soldiers ostensibly respond to the Ukrainian Military Congress, further conflict might just make them go over to the Central Powers (or more likely use any excuse to desert), which might really ruin the morale of what's left of the Russian Army. Mikhnovsky also might try and bluff his support for the war if Kerensky had guarantee Ukrainian control over Western Ukraine or other territory, play a sort of Italy in the Triple Alliance within Russia for a while.
This is the way I see things possibly going, although perhaps Mikhnovsky might opt for immediate independence, I don't think that was the mood amongst the soldiers or entirely practical and I think that was apparent from the reaction of the 2nd military congress and their stated positions. If Kerensky actively opposed them, I'm sure they wouldn't hesitate however in immediatley declaring independence and trying to go over to the CP.
And here's the point, until the October Revolution, Mikhnovsky and the new more military aligned government attempt to build both a state infastructure and a military apparatus both within and outside of the regular Russian Army. Mikhnovsky, unlike much of the other Ukrainian leaders, was a professional, he was an accomplished lawyer. He used a lot of legal language and justification in his arguments for Ukrainian independence and autonomy and wrote some of the earliest and best nationalist literature from before 1914. His legal background and his military expierence (he was a Lt. in the Russian Army) guide the state-building, army-building, and economic reform/land reform. The Khmelnytsky Regiment, Polubotok Regiment, and whatever subsequent regiments which are raised (maybe a Skoropadsky one?) are not fully deployed to the front, but small detachments of volunteers rotate on the front to appease Kerensky. The threat of another Bolshevik revolt is perhaps used as a justification for keeping those forces in Ukraine and off the front. Further state/military infastructure is built up in other areas of Ukraine further away from Kyiv. Relations between Mikhnovsky and the upper echelon of Ukrainian officers, like Pavlo Skoropadsky and Oleksandr Hrekiv would be much better and while they would not be able to expand the governance of Rada too far out, they can at least try and govern most of Dnipr Ukraine and some important urban centers.
Mikhnovsky's Party, UPSI, becomes somewhat more popular. Although many many parties/members of the Rada would be in opposition to the new regime, they don't have the ability to resist with force. They will, most assuredly, cause many problems later.
I can elaborate on what I've been thinking about, if people curious, past this POD. I am imagining doing something creative with this, and am somewhat excited about the prospect so I'm happy to hear what people think. This I guess, would be somewhat of a wank, but I suppose one of the first of its kind that I'm aware of and I think be fun for me to write.
Some Reading and sources
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polubotkivtsi_uprising
Mikhnovsky, Mykola
www.encyclopediaofukraine.com
All-Ukrainian military congresses
www.encyclopediaofukraine.com
All-Ukrainian Council of Military Deputies
www.encyclopediaofukraine.com
Khmelnytsky Regiment
www.encyclopediaofukraine.com
Polubotok Regiment
www.encyclopediaofukraine.com
Kapkan, Yurii
www.encyclopediaofukraine.com
Ukrainian Party of Socialists-Independentists
www.encyclopediaofukraine.com
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