PC: United States on losing side in WWI

[historyfool]

Italy hasn't fallen.


The issue is the Alps and the ability to supply forces forward. Germany would probably spend the rest of 1918 wrapping up and occupying/pillaging France, while dealing with the Brits and Americans before being able to move on Italy. In the meantime the Italians would probably go on the offensive as per OTL and drive out the Austrians and maintain an Alpine frontier.

Frankly I too believe that Italy will likely become a non-factor. A significant part of their war effort depended on French support (although less than British and American support was rising) and France also provided 2 divisions to the Italian front from 1918 onward. Italy had a significant manpower shortage itself (look up the Ragazzi del 99). Even otl with significant reinforcement from the western front (a bit more than five divisions in total) the Italians needed until October 18 to feel strong enough to attack AH. A further ca. three divisions were raised from POWs in 18 and I suspect that effort will be significantly less successful if they think association with the loosing Entente will damage the nationalist causes they aim for (depends on the exact timing, the first Czech units in Italy were formed in January 18, but the Legion was not fully consolidated until October). A temporary drop in strategic supplies and a significant delay in urgently needed reinforcements (French and at least part of the British forces coming otl won´t be availabe ittl) make it likely that Italy will sue for peace once France is out.

That said I think that Germany will accept (to a degree might even welcome) a dissolution of AH and likely will try to guide it. My gut feeling says they will favour the Austrian approach of a soft division along national lines over the Hungarian goal to keep the two halfs intact by force as two separate states. How soon they come to the conclusion, how they will try to influence it and how successful the dissolution will be is another question though.

 

[Mikestone8]

Italy hasn't fallen.


The issue is the Alps and the ability to supply forces forward. Germany would probably spend the rest of 1918 wrapping up and occupying/pillaging France, while dealing with the Brits and Americans before being able to move on Italy. In the meantime the Italians would probably go on the offensive as per OTL and drive out the Austrians and maintain an Alpine frontier.

Occupying France will still leave Germany with ample troops to spare - probably going to Tyrol to strike at the flank of the Piave line, and/or moving down the Rhone to open a new front against Italy on her western border. How on earth does Italy man such a front?

If France falls, Italy falls soon after - if indeed she hasn't sued for peace already in anticipation of the inevitable.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Occupying France will still leave Germany with ample troops to spare - probably going to Tyrol to strike at the flank of the Piave line, and/or moving down the Rhone to open a new front against Italy on her western border. How on earth does Italy man such a front?

If France falls, Italy falls soon after - if indeed she hasn't sued for peace already in anticipation of the inevitable.

Once the occupation is complete then perhaps, assuming you're not keeping reserves in place to defend against British invasion. But in the process of occupying they will have to drive out the Brits and Americans, plus flush out any diehard French soldiers. That will take time and manpower. Plus there is a strong need to demobilize men to rehab the economy so it doesn't implode.

Let's not forget that the Brits and Americans had divisions in Italy by this time and will probably be sending more.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

One after effect I see is the US Army makes fewer choices for French style weapons and doctrines post 1918. Digging though the professional literature of the 1920s, the Field Artillery Journal, Infantry Journal, ect... both German & French methods in WWI were examined along with others. In the end it was predominatly French thinking that was turned to. The exceptions were interesting but the trend was clear.

I can see a larger adoptation of German doctrines & US weapons more often following German patterns vs French. As losers a lot of French doctrine would be seen as failed or suspect & less retention of French ideas for weapons.

If Germany were still strong and aggresive US foreign & domestic policy could take a different course. A very aggresive post 1918 Germany could be perceived as much of a threat as the communists, this would also render the isolationist doctrine less viable - if German expansionism returns to the western hemisphere, or otherwise runs strongly against US economic interests globally.

Internally the US Army & militias could see less reduction in funds in the 1920s. If the isolationists doctrine is less viable then the Army & reserves or militia/national guard might see their budget support something closer to Marsh or Pershings 1919 or 1921 proposals. That has huge implications for the development of US Army doctrine, weapons, ect.. for the next couple decades.

If Germany is badly damaged by the Great war & is a winner on paper only then the US could still be dominated by isolationist thinking & the Army shriviel like a unwatered plant. Tho German military thinking could still dominate.

 

[Mikestone8]

Once the occupation is complete then perhaps, assuming you're not keeping reserves in place to defend against British invasion. But in the process of occupying they will have to drive out the Brits and Americans, plus flush out any diehard French soldiers. That will take time and manpower. Plus there is a strong need to demobilize men to rehab the economy so it doesn't implode.

Let's not forget that the Brits and Americans had divisions in Italy by this time and will probably be sending more.

If the Germans win at all in 1918 it will be in March/April, before the US contribution becomes significant. And if the BEF has been booted out of France it will need re-equipping from scratch. So the CP have ample time to polish off Italy, even assuming that the disaster in France hasn't led Rome to seek an armistice at once.