Nuke the nazis.

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

An atom bomb is different from a conventional air raid in that while the latter will at best knock the facility out for a few days, the latter will at wipe the facility out completely.

Oh? Really?

Sure, if the factory was at Ground Zero, it would be wiped out completely. But Abombs were targeted at cities, not at factories.

How many factories will be knocked out for more than a few days? Only those close enough to Ground Zero.

Remember, factories were directly hit by sizable conventional bombs, and back in operation in a few days. I don't think you'd have to be very far from Ground Zero for factories to be back in operation in a week.

Look at Operation Crossroads for an example of how less than overwhelming Abombs can be.

 

[DevonPasty]

Oh? Really?

Sure, if the factory was at Ground Zero, it would be wiped out completely. But Abombs were targeted at cities, not at factories.

How many factories will be knocked out for more than a few days? Only those close enough to Ground Zero.

Remember, factories were directly hit by sizable conventional bombs, and back in operation in a few days. I don't think you'd have to be very far from Ground Zero for factories to be back in operation in a week.

Look at Operation Crossroads for an example of how less than overwhelming Abombs can be.

You're forgetting the radiation. That can spread quite a distance. Civilians will panic and no one will want to go anywhere near the area.

Even using a disposable labour source - you need to have people managing them and whilst there may have been no qualms in the Nazi ranks to send workers into irradiated areas, few will be volunteering to oversee them.

If you drop a nuke on an industrial area - anything within the radius of the fallout will be lost cause, which could a huge area.

 

[pdf27]

Sure, if the factory was at Ground Zero, it would be wiped out completely. But Abombs were targeted at cities, not at factories.

How many factories will be knocked out for more than a few days? Only those close enough to Ground Zero.

Remember, factories were directly hit by sizable conventional bombs, and back in operation in a few days. I don't think you'd have to be very far from Ground Zero for factories to be back in operation in a week.

One of the surprising lessons for the British from Coventry (and I suspect a major reason they held with area bombing so long) is that while hitting a factory doesn't do all that much damage, burning out a city centre actually does rather a lot. Factories are reliant on workers, transport, water, electricity and the like, all of which tend to run through city centres. Even if you don't hit the factory, a bad raid on a city centre will often knock it out for as long as if you had only hit the factory and nothing else.

You're forgetting the radiation. That can spread quite a distance. Civilians will panic and no one will want to go anywhere near the area.

Even using a disposable labour source - you need to have people managing them and whilst there may have been no qualms in the Nazi ranks to send workers into irradiated areas, few will be volunteering to oversee them.

If you drop a nuke on an industrial area - anything within the radius of the fallout will be lost cause, which could a huge area.

Not really - fallout for the early A-bombs was pretty negligible. They were dropped as airbursts so that the only fallout was the material from the bomb itself, and that was spread over a wide area because it was so hot that the fireball hit 100,000 ft+. The cases of radiation sickness (and there was a lot of it) were pretty much entirely due to the prompt neutrons and gammas given off when the bomb itself initiated. There will be quite a lot of panic since this won't be understood, but the reality is that the fallout risk for a Hiroshima-type bomb is pretty minimal.
The risk came later with multi-megatonne bombs which could be used in ground bursts (i.e. bursts where the fireball touched the ground). All of the earth and soil within the fireball would tend to get sucked up by it, becoming irradiated and having fission products attached. Being heavy, these tend to fall to earth close to where the weapon went off - forming the classical fallout as experienced by the Fukuryū Maru. Where the fireball never touches the ground, the total mass of material is much smaller (the active mass being much the same), so it tends to be in smaller particles which are spread over a vastly wider area. The total radiation dose to the world as a whole is the same, but the peak individual dose is much lower and as a result the cases of radiation sickness due to fallout will be pretty much absent.

 

[ObssesedNuker]

Oh? Really?

Sure, if the factory was at Ground Zero, it would be wiped out completely.

Yeah really and not just at ground zero. A 20 kiloton bomb detonated at a appropriately optimized altitude will inflict 20-psi of overpressure to a distance of nearly 1.5 kilometers. 20-psi is enough to gut even the sturdiest of above ground structures and render them too hazardous to use. All the machine tools within the factory would be destroyed and the factory would have to be torn down and rebuilt from scratch. That effectively permanently removes the factory from the war. Plus the devastation to the surrounding area and the loss of skilled industrial personnel further renders the possibility of restoring production even more remote. Getting an A-bomb within 1.5 kilometers of the target is eminently doable even with WW2 aiming technology.

But Abombs were targeted at cities, not at factories.

The IOTL atom bombs were targeted at cities because their use was intended to be a psychological blow. If the WAllies were to use the A-Bombs against Germany with an intent to demolish their industry, they would seek to target the factories.

Look at Operation Crossroads for an example of how less than overwhelming Abombs can be.

Shot Able was poorly aimed and as a consequence did relatively little damage. Shot Baker near-instantly sank 9 vessels, including 3 capitol ships, foundered another three, and heavily damaged numerous others which are pretty significant losses for a naval fleet. Post-test studies found that even many of those vessels not damaged by the blast would have suffered crippling casualties among their crews. Radiation would have also killed or incapacitated many crews: out of the 31-combat vessels and numerous auxiliary vessels used in the test, only 9 were successfully decontaminated. The rest were deemed too hazardous and sunk. And remember, this was the 1940s where the definition of "hazardous radiation" was much more lax then it is today.

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

Suppose that the atomic bomb and the B-29 bomber were available a year earlier,in early summer 1944.
How much bombs on German cities are needed to obtain a
unconditional surrender of nazi German?

One. A strike to decapitate the Nazi state. Once Hitler is gone, the war is over. If the VALKYRIE bomb had succeeded on 20 July, that would have done it.

A nuke not only removes Hitler, it demonstrates the absolute military supremacy of the Allies.

There is the possibility that the Bomb doesn't kill Hitler; the Fuhrerbunker was deep and strong, and the Bomb could hit thousands of meters away. "Precision" bombing at this time was more of a joke than a reality, especially at night. The Bomb mission would probably go at night to evade German defenses.

That creates a different situation. Hitler will not surrender under any circumstances, but the German Army would. OTL, the Army was paralyzed by a number of factors, including the formal oath to Hitler all officers had sworn, and the possibility, however remote, that fighting on might get better terms from the Allies, who seemed bent on Germany's total destruction. The frog boiled slowly OTL.

While eventual defeat was obvious to many even in mid-1944, it was not imminent. German forces were battling fiercely in France, Italy, the USSR - well outside Germany, and Germany still held vast conquests.

The Bomb changes the equation - it means that fighting on becomes useless immediately. Hitler won't care. No Nazi will contradict him. But the Army has far more reason to overcome their scruples and act now. Even some Nazis will balk at going down in total destruction.

But it may take a second or third Bomb.

A big question is whether the Bomb drops before or after the Schwarze Kapelle attempts VALKYRIE. OT1H, after VALKYRIE's failure the SK was exposed, broken, many liquidated. OTOH, the SK would be partially decapitated as well: several of the key plotters would be in Berlin near Ground Zero, at the HQ of the Replacement Army which they intended to use to seize control.

And after the German capitulation, with some German cities nuked, is possible that Japan surrenders without the need of launch the bomb?

Idunno. Rationally, Japan has no chance of averting defeat. But "rational" and "Imperial Japan" don't go together. The Japanese leaders may not even believe the reports from Europe - at least as far as the Bomb's effects.

The U.S. has just taken Saipan and Tinian; it would be a few weeks at least to base B-29s there. (Basing out of China is not an option; the Bomb is too sensitive to be deployed in such a chaotic area.) The great firebombing campaign hasn't even started, so there is a wealth of targets.

Possibly the first target would be Yokosuka Naval Base, near the mouth of Tokyo Bay. Its destruction would be a step to the elimination of the Japanese Navy, which at this time is still a serious threat. The effect would be highly visible to the leadership in Tokyo - not just the blast and flash, but they could go look at the site easily.

At this point would reason take over? Perhaps after three Bombs have wrecked much of the surviving Japanese Navy... OTL the hard-liners's final fantasy was that the U.S. forces would land in Japan and suffer heavy casualties from banzai attacks, and the U.S. would be shocked into making peace. ATL, the U.S. is not coming ashore any time soon, but is instead battering Japan into ruins with an utterly devastating weapon. It seems possible that in this context, resistance would be seen as futile by enough of the leadership to end the war.

 

[marathag]

There is the possibility that the Bomb doesn't kill Hitler; the Fuhrerbunker was deep and strong, and the Bomb could hit thousands of meters away. "Precision" bombing at this time was more of a joke than a reality, especially at night. The Bomb mission would probably go at night to evade German defenses.

The Luftwaffe rarely chased high altitude photorecon planes after D-Day.

Just as the IJAAF pretty much ignored them in August 1945 as well.

Enola Gay was 800 feet off its aimpoint from 31,000 feet.

 

[CalBear]

You're forgetting the radiation. That can spread quite a distance. Civilians will panic and no one will want to go anywhere near the area.

Even using a disposable labour source - you need to have people managing them and whilst there may have been no qualms in the Nazi ranks to send workers into irradiated areas, few will be volunteering to oversee them.

If you drop a nuke on an industrial area - anything within the radius of the fallout will be lost cause, which could a huge area.

Civilians will panic NOW. In 1944 no one without an advanced degree would even understand what you were talking about.

We tend to think in modern terms, where nuclear weapons are the spectre of Death Himself.

That wasn't what the Manhattan Project produced. It started the ball rolling, but it was still at the very top of the hill and hadn't gained any extra snow yet.

Anything within about 3/4 of mile of the detonation was going to be utterly flattened, but machine tools would be salvageable, possibly even usable in place as soon as power was restored. Most major factories had a large enough footprint that the math worked close to one factory = one bomb. Still vastly better than 1,000 plane loads of bombs = 1 factory, but you can't hammer Berlin into a fire scarred pile of green glass with one aircraft, not even three.

We are, justifiably, terrified of nuclear extinction, but that is with THOUSANDS of 100-3,000kT weapons ready to fly, all arriving over a period of a few hours across the Earth. 12-14 weapons aren't going to make Hitler or Goebbels, or Himmler sane. We are not talking about a MIRV ICBM dropping six weapons in a pretty little pattern, all detonating with a TOT precision, we are talking about separate aircraft, fighting through heavy AAA and fighter defenses. It is fair to assume that at least three of the 14 weapons wouldn't even make it to the target, possibly more, especially if all the missions were not on the same day. You might lose half the missions, even with salvage detonation (i.e. the bomb detonates at 3,000' whether it is still in the aircraft or not) that would be an epic disaster to Allied morale (with huge impact on the immediate post war West/Soviet brinkmanship).

 

[CalBear]

The Luftwaffe rarely chased high altitude photorecon planes after D-Day.

Just as the IJAAF pretty much ignored them in August 1945 as well.

Enola Gay was 800 feet off its aimpoint from 31,000 feet.

This assumes the missions are all on the same day.

After the first strike the Luftwaffe is going to go all-in every time a B-29 crosses the Channel. The Luftwaffe wasn't the IJA/IJN, they would have tossed everything that could fly at every aircraft (the Japanese were saving fuel for the kamikaze campaign off Kyushu) and used every gun that would bear, every time. In late summer of 1944 the Luftwaffe was still big trouble over Germany, even if it had been knocked back in France and in the East.

 

[Somedevil]

What would a strike on Hitler outside of Berlin do?

Wait till he goes to one of his retreats and bomb that.

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

One. A strike to decapitate the Nazi state. Once Hitler is gone, the war is over. If the VALKYRIE bomb had succeeded on 20 July, that would have done it.

Right. Because, of course, Hitler cast a magic spell on the German people which would dissipate on his death, and the German people would all wake up from the nightmare the next morning and become sane.

No.

 

[Nebogipfel]

A City in the North or heartland would be a suitable target, like Munich or Frankfurt. Even Bonn.

Munich is in the deepest South. Bonn was actually a quite small place (100000 ish) and not that important back then. It only became capital of West Germany mainly because Adenauer liked the place.

 

[marathag]

After the first strike the Luftwaffe is going to go all-in every time a B-29 crosses the Channel. The Luftwaffe wasn't the IJA/IJN, they would have tossed everything that could fly at every aircraft (the Japanese were saving fuel for the kamikaze campaign off Kyushu) and used every gun that would bear, every time. In late summer of 1944 the Luftwaffe was still big trouble over Germany, even if it had been knocked back in France and in the East.

Intercepting every high flying bomber/recon plane just made the Luftwaffes job impossible.

So they can keep interceptors sitting on fields on standby, waiting, while ignoring conventional raids. That won't go over very well, since 8thAF and Bomber Command aren't standing down

At top speed, the B-29 flies around 6 miles a minute. It takes time to get to 30,000 feet, and hope you don't run into any P-47 or P-38 jocks who want to ruin your interception party in daytime.

Night time, there aren't many high speed nightfighters that can intercept those silverplate B-29 to go around, unless you plan to ignore pathfinders and the rest of Bomber Command
And they still had the AN/APQ-13 radar, plenty accurate.

 

[viperjock]

If the atomic bomb mission were launched from England would Churchill insist that it be a joint mission? Maybe have a Mosquito fly ahead of the the strike force for recon or perhaps have a British crew member aboard the B-29.

Come to think of it because of the German defenses could this be the mother of all maximum efforts? Several diversion forces could be launched to draw the luffwaffe away from the B-29s. A bunch of Mosquitoes could drop chaff all along the route and you could have every fighter available making one massive fighter sweep along the strike force route making sure no fighters come close.

 

[Tom_B]

I really don't see an Operation "Burn Adolf Burn"

For Germany they may wait until 2 bombs are ready. Probably at night. Massive diversionary raids before hand. Bremen and Dusseldorf sound like good initial targets (the latter is a shame due to my fondness for altbier)

 

[Napoleon IV]

What would a strike on Hitler outside of Berlin do?

Wait till he goes to one of his retreats and bomb that.

The problem is that Hitler's retreats didn't have military value unless Hitler was in them. So unless the Allies know he's there, they potentially just wasted an atomic bomb.

Right. Because, of course, Hitler cast a magic spell on the German people which would dissipate on his death, and the German people would all wake up from the nightmare the next morning and become sane.

No.

Hitler's subordinates were clinically incapable of working together. If he dies they are going to rip each other to shreds, taking down the Third Reich as well.

 

[viperjock]

Why launch from England? How about build large runways in Foggia Italy? Cancel Operation Matterhorn and send the B-29s to the 15th Air Force.The Germans begin to encounter B-29s and you can build large runways from the beginning rather than reinventing the wheel in England. The 509th composite Group goes to Foggia with its Silverplate B-29s. For a bonus send the Superfortresses to Ploesti.

 

[alexcoppo]

A thread with some external references about the effects of nuclear weapons.

 

[redlightning]

July 1944 - The first atomic bomb is tested successfully in Trinity, New Mexico.

August 10, 1944 - B-29 flying from the southern airfields of Great Britain drops an atomic bomb on Berlin killing Adolf Hitler and most of his cabinet while in attendance. The Allies announce the creation of an atomic bomb and demand the unconditional surrender of Germany. A surviving high party Nazi Hitler as Chancellor. 80,000 are killed in the bomb's wake. The Nazi high command denies still the death of the Fuhrer also.

August 13, 1944 - Germany doubts the existence of a so called atomic bomb. A second one is dropped over the city of Munich. 90,000 are killed in this blast. Rumors of the bomb spread across Germany and cause mass panic. Major German cities start to see thousands leave in fear and a small refugee crisis emerges. German authorities deal harshly with cities shutting down, especially ones with industrial resources.

August 17, 1944 - A third atomic bomb is dropped on Dresden. The refugee crisis in German major cities numbers into the hundreds of thousands. Production stops in much of the country. By this time, the German military stages a cou and removes the Nazi high command from power and imposes an emergency military leader. German high command agrees to open immediate talks of ceasefire with the Allies.

August 20, 1944 - Allied and German command agrees to implement an immediate ceasefire across all fronts.

August 27, 1944 - Germany agrees to complete surrender of all land, air, and sea forces of the Third Reich. All offensive action along all fronts is to cease immediately and plans for withdrawal and disarmament of all German forces begins. Germany will be partitioned into different Allied zones to ensure full conditions of surrender are ascertained.

September 1944 - Allied forces are able to reclaim most of western Europe cities without much resistance such as Paris and Amsterdam.

December 1944 - Most German forces withdrawn from occupied territories and are slowly being disarmed. American B-29 bombers are able to drop four atomic bombs over major Japanese cities. Peace talks begin between the Allies and Japan.

January 1945 - Japan unconditionally surrenders ending World War II.

Summer 1945 - All German military units are fully disarmed and Berlin is partitioned. The borders of eastern European nations are restored.

 

[stafford1069]

Yeah, blow the Ruhr to bits and that's all she wrote bar the epilogue. Can't fight without weapons/ammo.

BUT. BUT. BUT. BUT. BUT. BUT. BUT. BUT. BUT. BUT. BUT.

I thought SUPREME WILL overcame anything!!!!!!

 

[iddt3]

July 1944 - The first atomic bomb is tested successfully in Trinity, New Mexico.

August 10, 1944 - B-29 flying from the southern airfields of Great Britain drops an atomic bomb on Berlin killing Adolf Hitler and most of his cabinet while in attendance. The Allies announce the creation of an atomic bomb and demand the unconditional surrender of Germany. A surviving high party Nazi Hitler as Chancellor. 80,000 are killed in the bomb's wake. The Nazi high command denies still the death of the Fuhrer also.

August 13, 1944 - Germany doubts the existence of a so called atomic bomb. A second one is dropped over the city of Munich. 90,000 are killed in this blast. Rumors of the bomb spread across Germany and cause mass panic. Major German cities start to see thousands leave in fear and a small refugee crisis emerges. German authorities deal harshly with cities shutting down, especially ones with industrial resources.

August 17, 1944 - A third atomic bomb is dropped on Dresden. The refugee crisis in German major cities numbers into the hundreds of thousands. Production stops in much of the country. By this time, the German military stages a cou and removes the Nazi high command from power and imposes an emergency military leader. German high command agrees to open immediate talks of ceasefire with the Allies.

August 20, 1944 - Allied and German command agrees to implement an immediate ceasefire across all fronts.

August 27, 1944 - Germany agrees to complete surrender of all land, air, and sea forces of the Third Reich. All offensive action along all fronts is to cease immediately and plans for withdrawal and disarmament of all German forces begins. Germany will be partitioned into different Allied zones to ensure full conditions of surrender are ascertained.

September 1944 - Allied forces are able to reclaim most of western Europe cities without much resistance such as Paris and Amsterdam.

December 1944 - Most German forces withdrawn from occupied territories and are slowly being disarmed. American B-29 bombers are able to drop four atomic bombs over major Japanese cities. Peace talks begin between the Allies and Japan.

January 1945 - Japan unconditionally surrenders ending World War II.

Summer 1945 - All German military units are fully disarmed and Berlin is partitioned. The borders of eastern European nations are restored.

Those numbers are too high for bomb deaths I think, they're higher than the Japanese OTL totals, and those were unbombed cities with much lighter infrastructure (Paper and Wood cities vs Stone and Concrete). That said, what the Allies *could* do is build up a decent sized bomb stockpile, do a big surge with major raids going out, picking up the fighter streams, and small "diversionary" raids actually carrying the bombs hitting ten or so targets (say all focused on oil targets, or ball bearings, or Rhur Dams, perhaps plus 3 or four bombers hitting Berlin), causing lots of damage and disruption. Send the ultimatum, then start sending small, heavily escorted raids out. The Luftwaffe *has* to respond to each raid with everything it has, allowing the WAllies to attrit them down at times and places of their choosing. This is assuming the Allies don't have foothold when they nuke; it's going to be a lot harder to convince the Germans to surrender if the Allies aren't even on the Continent, if Alt-D-Day has already happened, or the French have flipped again, one raid is probably enough, combined with a decapitation strike.