Not so splendid isolation

[Max Sinister]

In the decades between Bismarck's demise and WW1, the old chancellor's diplomatic system that had put sure that Germany had good relations to all major powers (except France) broke gradually down - first they lost Russia, then they made Britain feel estranged, and at the eve of war, even Italy switched sides, which left Germany with no allies except the two decrepit empires of A-H and Turkey. Now I remember once having read a quote from a German contemporary who said that the Germans should be careful with A-H, or they could find themselves in a "Not so splendid isolation".

How can we make such a situation: Spontaneous idea: There's no war in 1914, but relations stay tense. After the death of Franz Joseph, A-H falls apart. Germany might be able to grab core Austria, but the Balcans are lost and divided into a Russian and a British sphere of influence. Now how long would it take until war against Germany breaks out?

 

[HueyLong]

How do the British grab the Balkans? The Italians, maybe, but the British won't even want them.

 

[Max Sinister]

Not grabbing or such, just making sure that the governments are pro-British.

The Italians probably will use the opportunity to grab South Tyrol, Istria and Dalmatia. Albania's possible too. Croatia? Depends whether the Hungarians manage to keep it or not. The Triple entente could fall apart over the spoils quite easily... if a war breaks out, Germany might become a valuable ally suddenly again. Of course, that goes against my original idea...

 

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

A-H's dependence on Germany and the decisions it imposed on its diplomacy (they had nothing against France and quite a lot against Italy and Romania, but Germany's alliances didn't work that way) were an obvious burden. If you have Francis Joseph assassinated before 1900 then either Rudolf or Charles (it depends on when it takes place) could try to work something out with France. The French would certainly not object.

One POD I once posted had Francis Joseph killed by an Italian irredentist in Trieste in the early 1880s (in OTL the attempt was unsuccessful). If this leads to tensions (even war) with Italy then you could see a new Diplomatic Revolution, since there were tensions between France and Italy at the time over Tunisia. Bismarck might still be able to diffuse the crisis and even maintain friendly relations with both nations, though.