North Macedonia/ FYRONM involved in the Yugoslavian war.

[pls don't ban me]

So...
what we know, or at least i know, is that in OTL Macedonia left Yugoslavia peacefully. Bulgaria had no reason to join in as they hoped for a peaceful unification when all the mess ended and they even ignored the embargo on Serbia by allowing the Mafia and others to supply the Serbian with Fuel.

the POD would be: Yugoslavia decides that they won't accept their independence and invades/re-occupy the region.
What happens next? could Bulgaria and Albania decide to join in on the Macedonian side? both hoping to reclaim their long dreamed lands?


I saw that usually every thread regarding the Yugoslavian collapse has the tendency to end with our dear mods starting a "Coventry speedrun", so let's avoid the escalation pls. Thank you in advance.

 

[presidentofyes12]

Macedonia seceded peacefully because there wasn't a sizable Serb population in the area. The last (and only) time that Yugoslavia tried to suppress a seceding country that lacked a sizable Serb population that it could rely on for support- Slovenia- it got ass-screwed. (Probably due to large-scale Slovenian preparations, though.) Plus, by the time that Macedonia seceded, Yugoslavia was trying in vain to stop violence between Serbs and Croats in seceded Croatia, and was about to get severely bogged down in the area. So if they chose to suppress Macedonia's secession with military force, it'd probably fail quickly and miserably.

The course of the war probably depends on the Yugoslav and Macedonian actions immediately preceding secession, though- if the Yugoslav government would be inclined to use military force to suppress Macedonia's secession, they'd show it, and Macedonia would see it and prepare accordingly. I don't see a situation where Macedonia secedes and then Yugoslavia suddenly descends upon them with overwhelming firepower that the Macedonians are unprepared for and that can be used elsewhere.

Considering how Bulgaria literally sees Macedonians as a type of Bulgarians, I wouldn't be surprised for Bulgaria to send a good amount of support to the Macedonians, but I'm not that sure of how foreign support would go as much as I'm sure that a Yugoslav invasion is 1. unlikely to happen, and 2. unlikely to work

 

[pls don't ban me]

The course of the war probably depends on the Yugoslav and Macedonian actions immediately preceding secession, though- if the Yugoslav government would be inclined to use military force to suppress Macedonia's secession, they'd show it, and Macedonia would see it and prepare accordingly. I don't see a situation where Macedonia secedes and then Yugoslavia suddenly descends upon them with overwhelming firepower that the Macedonians are unprepared for and that can be used elsewhere.

Considering how Bulgaria literally sees Macedonians as a type of Bulgarians, I wouldn't be surprised for Bulgaria to send a good amount of support to the Macedonians, but I'm not that sure of how foreign support would go as much as I'm sure that a Yugoslav invasion is 1. unlikely to happen, and 2. unlikely to work

OH, Sure, i never thought that Yugoslavian forces could be able ot overwhelm. they are already stretched thin.
The idea that crossed my mind was the possible Panic reaction. Bulgaria might see it only chance to get back Macedonia in danger and thus decide to join actively the fight.
One thing that i think it kinda gets lost here on the site is that we always give a rational and Impartial analysis but the "panic reasoning" it can get kinda lost in the process, i don't know if i'm explaining myself.

 

[Karelian]

The group that was ready to use violence to redraw borders - Albanian nationalists - is the key here.
POD: Rugova dies in a random traffic accident in 1989, and the K-Albanian hardliners take over the resistance movement from the start when Milošević shuts down the Kosovo autonomy. By 1992, UÇK launches an uprising against the Serb authorities. As refugees flee the fighting, the conflict spreads to FYROM.

As the Albanian guerrillas use the token neutrality and weakness of the regional government to establish bases of operations to Skopska Crna Gora, VJ pursuits them, disregarding the protests from Skopje.

 

[pls don't ban me]

The group that was ready to use violence to redraw borders - Albanian nationalists - is the key here.
POD: Rugova dies in a random traffic accident in 1989, and the K-Albanian hardliners take over the resistance movement from the start when Milošević shuts down the Kosovo autonomy. By 1992, UÇK launches an uprising against the Serb authorities. As refugees flee the fighting, the conflict spreads to FYROM.

As the Albanian guerrillas use the token neutrality and weakness of the regional government to establish bases of operations to Skopska Crna Gora, VJ pursuits them, disregarding the protests from Skopje.

thus Macedonia is dragged into the war.
this might create panic enough to push both Bulgaria and Albania to join to fight. correct?

 

[Karelian]

thus Macedonia is dragged into the war.
this might create panic enough to push both Bulgaria and Albania to join to fight. correct?

This was a genuine fear of international community during the OTL Yugoslav Wars.
If Kosovo Albanians rise up to open revolt in 1992 during the same time when the Macedonian Albanians declared the Republic of Illirida in April 1992, the risk of a spread of violence is real. My impression is that Rugova is a key person in this scenario, since his popularity and diplomatic abilities managed to keep the Drenica valley cigarette smuggler clan leaders patient enough during the 1990s.

 

[pls don't ban me]

This was a genuine fear of international community during the OTL Yugoslav Wars.
If Kosovo Albanians rise up to open revolt in 1992 during the same time when the Macedonian Albanians declared the Republic of Illirida in April 1992, the risk of a spread of violence is real. My impression is that Rugova is a key person in his scenario, since his popularity and diplomatic abilities managed to keep the Drenica valley cigarette smuggler clan leaders patient enough during the 1990s.

ok, So Rugova dying is a very good pod for an actual third balkan war

 

[Vercigentorix]

so the sides in the Rugova POD would effectively be Croatia/Kosovo vs Macedonia/Serbia???

 

[pls don't ban me]

so the sides in the Rugova POD would effectively be Croatia/Kosovo vs Macedonia/Serbia???

mmmh actually from from what i get is more of a Yugoslavian forces ( Serbia, Montenegro and the loyalists) vs all the countries that want to secede.
Also with Rugova dying Kosovo might start more of a " battle royale" as they want to take also the Albanian majority inside Fyrom.
it might lead to Bulgaria and Albania joining to secure their interests.
in my opinion it might result with Macedonians deciding to unify with Bulgaria out of self preservation while Albania seizes Kosovo and some area in western Macedonia.

in the end it would become Yugoslavia vs all the Balkans and they would lose even faster, since Bulgaria being an enemy won't break the embargo nor secretly supply them.

 

[nickmn]

So many differences might end up bringing in even more countries . Would NATO in general and especially NATO countries in the area just stand by and allow unchallenged Albanian and Bulgarian expansion ?

 

[Karelian]

Greek nationalism would be a major factor regarding the Macedonian question.

 

[nickmn]

Greek nationalism would be a major factor regarding the Macedonian question.

Not to mention the issues between Greece and Albania regarding the Greek minotity in North Epirus/South Albania . There was also a lot of popular support amongst the people of Greece in support of Serbia . An early Greek intervention in Serbia's side could possibly even change NATO's eventual stance , since it would be a bit harder to decide to join a war in the side opposite to the one of one of the main NATO states in the area.

 

[pls don't ban me]

Not to mention the issues between Greece and Albania regarding the Greek minotity in North Epirus/South Albania . There was also a lot of popular support amongst the people of Greece in support of Serbia . An early Greek intervention in Serbia's side could possibly even change NATO's eventual stance , since it would be a bit harder to decide to join a war in the side opposite to the one of one of the main NATO states in the area.

as far as i'm aware, greece became very agitated when Macedonia got freedom and adopted a name and flag that pissed them off pretty heavily.
shouldn't they be more on Albania's side if the two countries start a fight between each other?
also, as a Nato member and EU member they might have some heavy leash regarding possible military operation. The best i can see is them doing what Bulgaria did in OTL and subtly start to supply Serbia or the Kosovars

 

[nickmn]

as far as i'm aware, greece became very agitated when Macedonia got freedom and adopted a name and flag that pissed them off pretty heavily.
shouldn't they be more on Albania's side if the two countries start a fight between each other?
also, as a Nato member and EU member they might have some heavy leash regarding possible military operation. The best i can see is them doing what Bulgaria did in OTL and subtly start to supply Serbia or the Kosovars

Greece would have been in the somewhat unique position where everyone would have been an enemy . Both the populace and the Greek Orthodox Church were very much in support of Serbia . At the same time , there were very much negative towards both Albania (due to the Greek minority issues ) and towards Bulgaria , due to the relatively recent history between the 2 countries (and the fact that they were the nearby "communist enemy" ) . NATO itself at the start of the war held no position of notice in the whole issue and the USA would probably want Greek involvement to gain direct influence in the whole mess . Greece at the time also was the most significant military power in the area (outside Turkey ) , so an intervention would have been quite influential. Even the threat of intervention would probably be enough to give pause to everyone involved . It would of course be also quite interesting to see the Turkish answer to all this , since the relations were quite heated in the 90s...

 

[pls don't ban me]

Greece would have been in the somewhat unique position where everyone would have been an enemy . Both the populace and the Greek Orthodox Church were very much in support of Serbia . At the same time , there were very much negative towards both Albania (due to the Greek minority issues ) and towards Bulgaria , due to the relatively recent history between the 2 countries (and the fact that they were the nearby "communist enemy" ) . NATO itself at the start of the war held no position of notice in the whole issue and the USA would probably want Greek involvement to gain direct influence in the whole mess . Greece at the time also was the most significant military power in the area (outside Turkey ) , so an intervention would have been quite influential. Even the threat of intervention would probably be enough to give pause to everyone involved . It would of course be also quite interesting to see the Turkish answer to all this , since the relations were quite heated in the 90s...

ok. so a possible escalation would be:
- rugova dies, Albanian cetniks start a violent war of independence for Kosovo and part of Albanian Macedonia,
-Yugoslavia retaliates invading Kosovo and Macedonia.
-Bulgaria joins for Macedonia.
-Albania hops in for their own rebels
-Greece shows up at the border making everyone pause a moment to see what they'll do
-Turkey intervenes to counter greece?

At this point we only miss Romania showing up. IF by some reason they do something it would be surely to intervene on Bulgarian Side.

Honestly i think that Greece might want to act big but Turkey would heavily oppose.
Maybe greece shows up and after Turkey protest some kind of agreement can be found with Macedonia and Bulgaria?
Greece had all the "hate" for Macedonian for them using a name and Flag that belong to Alexander the Great. Maybe the treat of a full blown war on all side can be enough to convincing Grigorov, the Macedonian leader, to go for unification with Bulgaria ?

 

[MUC]

Greece's interest is to avoid a state with the name of Macedonia on their Northern bordern.
If that means that Albania, Bulgaria and Serbia all bite a chunk of the former Yugoslav republic with the respective ethic minority in it, then so be it.
Their best bet is to stay neutral or mediate in the conflict.

 

[nickmn]

Greece's interest is to avoid a state with the name of Macedonia on their Northern bordern.
If that means that Albania, Bulgaria and Serbia all bite a chunk of the former Yugoslav republic with the respective ethic minority in it, then so be it.
Their best bet is to stay neutral or mediate in the conflict.

Avoiding the name would be something Greece would heavily favor . Add in some potential border adjustment in North Epirus and they more than likely be convinced to stay out of things . The Greek minority and the Albanian treatment of them is still even today a significant thorn in the relationship between the 2 countries . More or less , Greece would prefer a slightly larger Bulgaria and Albania to having to deal with the naming issue .
As for Turkey , while they probably wouldnt just sit and watch , would they actually try a military intervention against a NATO country in favor of some countries that until yesterday were the communist enemy ? Would the USA even allow it ? Even the greatest incident of the decade between the 2 countries that had a lot of potential to lead to war (Imia Dec95-Jan96 ) was completely defused for both governments with a single American phonecall ...

 

[Falecius]

Greece at the time also was the most significant military power in the area (outside Turkey ) , so an intervention would have been quite influential. Even the threat of intervention would probably be enough to give pause to everyone involved .

Italy says hello.
Although, to be fair, Italy won't do anything without very explicit and solid NATO backing.

 

[nickmn]

Italy says hello.
Although, to be fair, Italy won't do anything without very explicit and solid NATO backing.

Italy in the early 90s would be far more interested in Dalmatia than Albania . Given the quite good relations between Italy and Greece , an intervention would be far more likely to be in favor of the Greeks , not against them . By "the area" , i was mainly talking about the Balkans .

 

[Falecius]

Italy in the early 90s would be far more interested in Dalmatia than Albania . Given the quite good relations between Italy and Greece , an intervention would be far more likely to be in favor of the Greeks , not against them . By "the area" , i was mainly talking about the Balkans .

Italy was not even interested in Dalmatia that much, but I wasn't suggesting that Italy would have tried to take Albania. Nobody wanted that. They would be, however, together with Turkey, the main military power in the general vicinity.
I agree that, in the extremely unlikely scenario where Italy does something, being on the Greek side is less unlikely than the opposite, though that would put the regional NATO closer to the Serbian side.
IOTL, some Italian far right politicians called to ally with Belgrade against Croatia and Slovenia to recover Istria. They were rightly laughed at by nearly everyone else, and NATO partners would have been completely dead set against anything of the sort anyway.